Which side is closer to a premiership - Carlton or Essendon?

[Foxman98]

B-grade talent is just C-grade and D-grade talent in a good system. If Voss brings a good system, there's no reason a lot of the players at Carlton can't fill a role the system that haven't previously looked fantastic.

A-graders will be A-graders anywhere, it's the rest of the team that looks good when the system is good.

It's not like guys like Castagna or Lambert would still look like great players in a shitty system, despite being triple Premiership players.

You'd expect most of the players taken inside the first 2 rounds of the draft to be B or C grade guys, the kind of region where you get your 100 gamers from. Motlop, Durdin, Caroll, Kemp, and Philp have all barely played yet were taken inside that range over the last 3 years. I'd expect at least some of them to be capable of being B-graders in a good system unless a clubs drafting and talent ID is appallingly bad (which it was in the 2014 draft under Shane Rogers who then got turfed out).

B grade talent is guys who can play at a grade level just not consitent. You're talking about role players which Carlton also lack

 

[faible]

B grade talent is guys who can play at a grade level just not consitent. You're talking about role players which Carlton also lack

No, that's just lazy A-grade talent.

 

[Arr0w]

Midfield depth

So the answer would be a no

 

[Fadge]

I haven't read the whole thread so this has probably already been said, but it's a ridiculous question. Both teams are an immeasurable distance from a future premiership. I would probably put all these teams in the "unknown distance from a premiership" category:
Sydney
Essendon
Carlton
St Kilda
Hawthorn
Collingwood
Adelaide
West Coast
Fremantle
Gold Coast
Richmond
North Melbourne

You might debate whether Geelong and GWS should be included, perhaps you can make an argument that Richmond should not be.

But none of those teams to me seem to have a list that could meaningfully challenge for a flag. They could all turn over their lists completely in the next 10-15 years and have zero cups to show for it. Or everything might go right and they could get a flag in the next 5 years.

Obviously some teams are better than others right now. If the question is which team will finish higher on the ladder, or play in finals, or even make a preliminary final, you could probably give a meaningful answer. But a premiership? Too many ifs, buts and maybes.

This is a very good way to look at it.

We can predict the teams most likely to contend for premierships in the short term, but it is just a guess if you are predicting a team who currently does not have the list to do so.

Reckon your list is pretty good, as I think Melbourne, Bulldogs, Brisbane and Port will all contend over the next few years - I have gone as far as saying that these teams may form a new era of 'Super Teams' that we haven't seen since the foursome of the Cats, Saints, Pies and Bulldogs of 2009 to 2011.

I rate Sydney a chance. I like the look of their list and they clearly know what it takes to build a premiership contending team.

Something also tells me we haven't seen the last of Richmond. Do they have another flag in them before Dusty, Grimes, Lynch, etc. retire?

 

[TheUnicorn]

What round we verse you mob anyways?

EDIT: Round 13!? I can't wait that long to dumpster Carlton T_T

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

And you thought Melbourne had a team that would win a premiership in 2021 when in 2019 they finished 17th. Or even in 2020 when they finished 9th.

Didn't think so. Good talk

Yeah, good chat, cheers.

No I didn't. Wouldn't have thought Richmond was within a bull's roar in 2017 either. I'm not saying things can't all click and either Carlton or Essendon goes bam! I just don't see any basis on which you could rate one ahead of the other in the race for the next premiership.

Moreover, with the benefit of hindsight, you can see Melbourne's path from preliminary finalist in 2018 to premiers. Even Richmond had been thereabouts for several years, they just couldn't seem to win a final. That's an obvious parallel with the Bombers, of course, but Richmond has a couple of 15-win seasons in amongst that, I don't think Essendon has made a recent final with more than 12 wins.

The temptation, then, is to assume Essendon are nearer, but in all honesty I'm not convinced they are any closer than any of the collective also-rans I named before.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

This is a very good way to look at it.

We can predict the teams most likely to contend for premierships in the short term, but it is just a guess if you are predicting a team who currently does not have the list to do so.

Reckon your list is pretty good, as I think Melbourne, Bulldogs, Brisbane and Port will all contend over the next few years - I have gone as far as saying that these teams may form a new era of 'Super Teams' that we haven't seen since the foursome of the Cats, Saints, Pies and Bulldogs of 2009 to 2011.

I rate Sydney a chance. I like the look of their list and they clearly know what it takes to build a premiership contending team.

Something also tells me we haven't seen the last of Richmond. Do they have another flag in them before Dusty, Grimes, Lynch, etc. retire?

Yep, agree with that and I did toss-up in my mind about Sydney. May have let personal bias colour my judgement there!

I think GWS are an interesting one. I think they are the ones that may turn a corner a-la Melbourne or Richmond and suddenly perform to a greater level with more consistency. Questions about the coach with them I reckon.

 

[aussierulesrules]

I reckon Essendon, and one of the key reasons for that is that they were a clearly better team than Carlton last year, despite Carlton’s best young talent having already “broken out” and playing at an AA type level, whereas there’s so much more upside in Essendons best young talent, due to the fact that obviously none of Cox, Perkins, Reid, Caldwell, Jones, Draper and now Hobbs have gone anywhere near having properly “broken out” yet. And 5 of them were taken in the top 13 of their respective drafts. As such, there’s huge scope for improvement there.

Another key factor is that Carlton’s salary cap is likely to be maxed out once they re-sign McKay and Curnow, whereas Essendon will presumably still have the cap space to go shopping for a Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

type.

So unless they do some extremely creative accounting, Carlton look like they’ll largely have to “make do” with what they’ve got for the foreseeable future, whereas I reckon Essendon have at least as much talent already, but will have more scope to shop for more.

 

[Jeremias]

I reckon Essendon, and one of the key reasons for that is that they were a clearly better team than Carlton last year, despite Carlton’s best young talent having already “broken out” and playing at an AA type level, whereas there’s so much more upside in Essendons best young talent, due to the fact that obviously none of Cox, Perkins, Reid, Caldwell, Jones, Draper and now Hobbs have gone anywhere near having properly “broken out” yet. And 5 of them were taken in the top 13 of their respective drafts. As such, there’s huge scope for improvement there.

Another key factor is that Carlton’s salary cap is likely to be maxed out once they re-sign McKay and Curnow, whereas Essendon will presumably still have the cap space to go shopping for a Ben King type.

So unless they do some extremely creative accounting, Carlton look like they’ll largely have to “make do” with what they’ve got for the foreseeable future, whereas I reckon Essendon have at least as much talent already, but will have more scope to shop for more.

This is a truly bizarre post. Holes everywhere.

 

[aussierulesrules]

This is a truly bizarre post. Holes everywhere.

Cool story bro.

Fact: Essendon have 5 guys that were taken in the top 13 of the draft from the last 4 drafts, who haven’t had anything resembling a breakout year, and are thus nowhere near their potentially elite ceiling, while Carlton don’t have anyone taken from the top 16 of the last 4 drafts who fits that description.

5 v 0

Yet they still finished comfortably ahead of you last season. That augurs very, very well for them.

And of course if the shoe was on the other foot, that is exactly what you guys would be arguing.

And if you think you’re going to have as much cap space to go shopping for “big names” as them, on top of all the money you’re already paying the likes of Walsh, Cripps, McGovern, Weitering, Curnow, Cerra and Saad, and will have to keep aside for Curnow and McKay’s next contracts, you’re kidding yourself.

 

[Fadge]

Cool story bro.

Fact: Essendon have 5 guys that were taken in the top 13 of the draft from the last 4 drafts, who haven’t had anything resembling a breakout year, and are thus nowhere near their potentially elite ceiling, while Carlton don’t have anyone taken from the top 16 of the last 4 drafts who fits that description.

5 v 0

Yet they still finished comfortably ahead of you last season. That augurs very, very well for them.

And of course if the shoe was on the other foot, that is exactly what you guys would be arguing.

And if you think you’re going to have as much cap space to go shopping for “big names” as them, on top of all the money you’re already paying the likes of Walsh, Cripps, McGovern, Weitering, Curnow, Cerra and Saad, and will have to keep aside for Curnow and McKay’s next contracts, you’re kidding yourself.

This is spot on, and has been highlighted in other threads.

There is no doubt that Carlton's top 3 players - Walsh, Weitering and McKay - are as good as any other teams' top 3 players, particularly when you consider the positions they play. Add in a fit Cripps and Curnow, and that same assessment extends to the top 5 players.

It appears many observers get seduced by the 'top end talent', and forget it takes 25 to 30 players to contend for a premiership. So whilst Carlton have managed to get a few of their first round picks right (Lord knows, they've had enough of them), the remainder of their list is comprised of overpaid recruits from other clubs and a mixed bag of lower end draft picks/rookie picks who certainly aren't setting the world on fire.

So until Carlton find a way to identify and develop talent using their own lower end draft picks in the same way as all other premiership contending teams have been able to do since the turn of the century, the club will peak at the occasional finals appearance/finals win, in the same way as they did between 2011 and 2013, without seriously contending.

 

[faible]

This is spot on, and has been highlighted in other threads.

There is no doubt that Carlton's top 3 players - Walsh, Weitering and McKay - are as good as any other teams' top 3 players, particularly when you consider the positions they play. Add in a fit Cripps and Curnow, and that same assessment extends to the top 5 players.

It appears many observers get seduced by the 'top end talent', and forget it takes 25 to 30 players to contend for a premiership. So whilst Carlton have managed to get a few of their first round picks right (Lord knows, they've had enough of them), the remainder of their list is comprised of overpaid recruits from other clubs and a mixed bag of lower end draft picks/rookie picks who certainly aren't setting the world on fire.

So until Carlton find a way to identify and develop talent using their own lower end draft picks in the same way as all other premiership contending teams have been able to do since the turn of the century, the club will peak at the occasional finals appearance/finals win, in the same way as they did between 2011 and 2013, without seriously contending.

Whatever coaching system Voss implements is very important, Essendon's 'role' players looked significantly better under Rutten than under Worsfold, despite being the exact same people.

No reason Voss can't have some of these guys start looking AFL standard with a clear, functional system in place.

 

[Robertio]

Whatever coaching system Voss implements is very important, Essendon's 'role' players looked significantly better under Rutten than under Worsfold, despite being the exact same people.

No reason Voss can't have some of these guys start looking AFL standard with a clear, functional system in place.

That's what most of us are pinning our hopes on.

 

[Fadge]

Whatever coaching system Voss implements is very important, Essendon's 'role' players looked significantly better under Rutten than under Worsfold, despite being the exact same people.

No reason Voss can't have some of these guys start looking AFL standard with a clear, functional system in place.

Yep, that's of benefit of a succession plan. Rutten was at the club for 2 years before he took over the main gig, so he would have had a good feel for which players would make it under his game plan.

Voss doesn't have the same luxury, so any improvement will take time, that is assuming Voss has what it takes to make it as a head coach at AFL level.

 

[Jeremias]

Cool story bro.

Fact: Essendon have 5 guys that were taken in the top 13 of the draft from the last 4 drafts, who haven’t had anything resembling a breakout year, and are thus nowhere near their potentially elite ceiling, while Carlton don’t have anyone taken from the top 16 of the last 4 drafts who fits that description.

5 v 0

Oh god. I don't think I've even suggested Carlton is closer to a premiership than Essendon, but it's pretty funny that you've doubled down on this rubbish.

Fact: 'Top 13 of the draft' is an irrelevant metric that you've picked out of thin air. Brodie Kemp (for example) picked at 17 doesn't have an elite ceiling because he was picked 4 spots below?

Hilarious.

Yet they still finished comfortably ahead of you last season. That augurs very, very well for them.

Yep, it's pretty widely accepted Carlton underperformed in 2021. Thanks for pointing that out.

Again though, not relevant given I haven't suggested Carlton is closer to a flag. Just pointing out your post was laughable.

And of course if the shoe was on the other foot, that is exactly what you guys would be arguing.

No, not really. There's a very real argument to be made that Essendon are closer to a premiership.

Not sure you've thought this through very well.

And if you think you’re going to have as much cap space to go shopping for “big names” as them, on top of all the money you’re already paying the likes of Walsh, Cripps, McGovern, Weitering, Curnow, Cerra and Saad, and will have to keep aside for Curnow and McKay’s next contracts, you’re kidding yourself.

Ah yes, the salary cap expert.

No mention of the salaries that came off the books last year? Or the salary that has already come off the books this year? Or the diminishing salaries of some who we pretty publicly gave heavily front-ended contracts to?

As I said in my original post. Holes everywhere. And you can add red flags to that given old mate Fadgey agrees with you - if that doesn't tell you everything, then I can't help you.

You wouldn't happen to work for the Herald Sun, would you?

 

[Fadge]

As I said in my original post. Holes everywhere. And you can add red flags to that given old mate Fadgey agrees with you - if that doesn't tell you everything, then I can't help you.

'Old mate Fadgey' who has been spot on about Carlton's prospects every year since they joined BigFooty 15 years ago.

 

[Jeremias]

'Old mate Fadgey' who has been spot on about Carlton's prospects every year since they joined BigFooty 15 years ago.

Old mate Fadgey outed himself as a troll years ago.

He sticks around these parts, but nobody takes him seriously…except himself of course.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Talks of salary cap issues are ridiculous. With clubs having to pay a minimum of 95% you are only ever around 700k, or one good free agent, away from maxing your cap.

The way you front end and back end contracts is far more important.

FWIW, if you believe the reports, McGovern’s 800k deal ends in 2023 and we may have some cash again. I suspect it was front loaded somewhat. Shocking deal in isolation but we had money to burn at the time.

 

[Fadge]

Old mate Fadgey outed himself as a troll years ago.

He sticks around these parts, but nobody takes him seriously…except himself of course.

As a moderator, maybe you should stick to the thread topic instead of making provocative and derogatory comments about other posters?

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

Cool story bro.

Fact: Essendon have 5 guys that were taken in the top 13 of the draft from the last 4 drafts, who haven’t had anything resembling a breakout year, and are thus nowhere near their potentially elite ceiling, while Carlton don’t have anyone taken from the top 16 of the last 4 drafts who fits that description.

5 v 0

Yet they still finished comfortably ahead of you last season. That augurs very, very well for them.

And of course if the shoe was on the other foot, that is exactly what you guys would be arguing.

And if you think you’re going to have as much cap space to go shopping for “big names” as them, on top of all the money you’re already paying the likes of Walsh, Cripps, McGovern, Weitering, Curnow, Cerra and Saad, and will have to keep aside for Curnow and McKay’s next contracts, you’re kidding yourself.

Such a lazy argument.
I won't comment on Essendon's 5 players, because I don't know them well enough, but good luck to them. It's great to see AFL players reach their potential, regardless of where they play.

As for Carlton, removing your ridiculously restrictive arbitrary goal posts, we have plenty of players who haven't had anything resembling a breakout year and have untapped ceilings to reach.
2017 draft - De Koning is the big one here. O'Brien and Dow haven't reached their ceilings, but are likely on their last chance to do so. Fair chance that Cerra hasn't reached his ceiling yet either.
2018 - Has Walsh got another level we haven't seen yet? Stocker hasn't had a breakout yet. Possible he has some improvement to come as a defender, but was drafted as a mid and could definitely break out if given more chance in the middle.
2019 - We haven't seen much of Kemp and Philp, so both still have a lot of scope for improvement.
2020 - Durdin and Carroll were taken a bit further down, but a lot of people expecting Carroll in particular to show dramatic improvement this year.
2021 - Motlop could very easily and quickly become an excitement machine in a position we are screaming for.

So Carlton's best young talent has not already broken out (who exactly are you referring to other than Walsh?).

As for the salary cap, it's been done to death. There was no way we were going to be able to get players in after signing McGovern. Then we got Martin. Then there was no way we could get anyone else. Then we got Williams and Saad. Then we couldn't possibly fit anyone else in and were going to start losing players who would demand huge coin. Then we got Cerra and signed up all of McKay, Cripps and Walsh.
Just goes to show that nobody has any idea, especially when it comes front loading and back loading.
When Harry and Charlie's next deals come around, Gov will be off the books, Ed Curnow probably retired (out of contract 2022 - maybe 1 more year), Doc will be 30yo and out of contract, Newman 31yo and out of contract, Newnes likely delisted. Plenty will have happened by then, all of which the club will have plans for.

 

[Jeremias]

As a moderator, maybe you should stick to the thread topic instead of making provocative and derogatory comments about other posters?

Oh you poor thing

 

[HereComesJuddy]

As a moderator, maybe you should stick to the thread topic instead of making provocative and derogatory comments about other posters?

 

[RonnieRaven]

Old mate Fadgey outed himself as a troll years ago.

He sticks around these parts, but nobody takes him seriously…except himself of course.

Trolls don’t speak the truth and have such foresight.
If the people running Carlton had half as much.
the blues wouldn’t be on their 5th coach in 8 years

 

[Beerfish]

Most hated in the league AND closer to a flag than Carlton. What a time to be alive!!

 

[Great8]

We are both miles off it and neither will win a flag in the next 5 years IMO. Who knows after that