Analysis Why are we s**t?

[JayJ20]

Some of you on here are really harshly judging the list.

While it isn’t quite Top 4 yet, the scope for improvement is there.

Personally, I think we will look back on the last two drafts in particular and say “shit, they actually nailed it.” Caddy is going to be a match winner. Roberts seems like a steal and is a bloke that seems like he wants to be a winner. Tstatas, if given time to build his body up, is the midfielder we have been crying out for, for years.

Why blow up the list and start again when that is already happening? The players that are named on this board as deadweight will be gone, at a minimum, three years time.

Lav is a stop gap until Reid is ready and gets his body right.
Gresham is a handy player until Kako, or the Davey twins are ready.

I’m sure there is more I’m missing, but the list build is happening in front of us.

Comparing us to Hawthorn is silly. Win a flag and then we can do what they did. We had a drug scandal to content with.

The core is there and the comp has shown that you just need to be 5-10% better at the right time and you’re a chance.

Why is comparing us to Hawthorn silly? They went with a full scale rebuild since 2019 and made finals with a young list.

I don't think the list is hopeless, but it's a bit of a reach to say it's going to improve next year. I think we need to go backwards before going forward.

Trading the likes of Wright, Shiel, Stringer and Parish (at a minimum) as well as moving on Kelly, Heppell, Setterfield etc means we'd be replacing them with younger less experienced players that will take time to bring what these experienced players brought to the side. It cuts into our depth which I think is necessary to rejuvenate our list.

 

[bomberlegend2007]

I want to believe this... but I just don't see it happening with this list.
Our senior group is just too lacking, it feels like we're trapped in a cycle of mediocrity where experience is quite frankly not being passed down from the best. We are on the 3rd generation of leaders who came up under leaders that never had success. I think it's a big part of why we're consistently 5-10-20% off the best.

I’ve never brought into this theory as clubs break the cycle. Richmond did, Brisbane did.

However, if the club feels this is an issue, fork out the money and bring in the experienced players from successful clubs to help Merrett set the standards. Callan Ward, Travis Boak, Dangerfield. Pay them overs for two years.

 

[ant555]

Why is comparing us to Hawthorn silly? They went with a full scale rebuild since 2019 and made finals with a young list.

I don't think the list is hopeless, but it's a bit of a reach to say it's going to improve next year. I think we need to go backwards before going forward.

Trading the likes of Wright, Shiel, Stringer and Parish (at a minimum) as well as moving on Kelly, Heppell, Setterfield etc means we'd be replacing them with younger less experienced players that will take time to bring what these experienced players brought to the side. It cuts into our depth which I think is necessary to rejuvenate our list.

It is silly because they are a club with with a GF winning pedigree . The culture and personal doing the job know how to win. We are trying to get there. They have already been there and done it. We have not.
On top of that they did not trade out 4 or 5 of their experienced players in 1 year. Some went well before the rebuild started. They moved out the players from the ned of 2016 to the end of 2020.
I agree we need to move a few on. What we do not want to do is end up like North or Carlton. Start with Shiel and Stringer plus a few of the lesser guys. Draft another 3 or 4 kids this year and then the same next year. Maybe then it is Wright and Parish may want out.
One issue we have is we can not do what the Hawks did now as we do not have the draft picks, even if we did get some mid range picks.

 

[ghostdog]

McCluggage maybe?

It wasn't a particularly strong draft.

Yep, Clug. Instead we have McGrath and Perkins. McGrath's ceiling is clear and soft. Perkins is so far proving a plodder and a list clogger, but at least he has time on his side for now. The clock is ticking though.

 

[bomberlegend2007]

Why is comparing us to Hawthorn silly? They went with a full scale rebuild since 2019 and made finals with a young list.

I don't think the list is hopeless, but it's a bit of a reach to say it's going to improve next year. I think we need to go backwards before going forward.

Trading the likes of Wright, Shiel, Stringer and Parish (at a minimum) as well as moving on Kelly, Heppell, Setterfield etc means we'd be replacing them with younger less experienced players that will take time to bring what these experienced players brought to the side. It cuts into our depth which I think is necessary to rejuvenate our list.

Only because Essendon won’t do a full rebuild again until they have tasted success. The fans don’t have the patience.

I do agree the list will be cut further and I do think we might go slightly backwards, but I honestly believe the group on the right path.

 

[ant555]

For what it is worth.
Hawks rebuild.

The recent build had its origins at the end of 2019 when they missed the finals after a surprise 2018 season where they finished top 4 but lost both finals. However there where bits and pieces going on as far as forward planning goes before that. Mitchell came back from the Eagles to take on the role as midfield coach in 2019 which he did for 2 years before coaching Box Hill in 2021 and taking on the head of development role.



Despite the 2016 trade period where they gave up plenty of draft capital to top up with Mitchell and O’Meara, they had been gradually moving on some of their old stars as well. Mitchell and Lewis at the end of 2016. Hodge in 2017. They kept moving on some of their premiership players in 2019 and 2020. Roughead. Birchall. Smith. Puopolo. Frawley all left in that time.



There where a number of their key players that are having an impact now that came in before 2019 as well. Breust was one of the premiership stars who has stayed on and lead the way but Sicily (2013) Hardwicke (2015) Worpel and Moore (2017) where all drafted in the lead in years.



There where a few from trades. Impy (2017) Scrimshaw (2018) plus Jiath (2017) as an unregistered player selection.

So, there was already a lot of ground work being done before they actually decided yes, we are going to rebuild this thing.



Obviously there where a couple of speed bumps along the way. Wright left in Jan 2021 and Clarkson at the end of 2021 after friction with Mitchell over game plan decisions and coaching decisions during 2021. The Wright departure had limited effect as Rob McCarthey stepped up to the GM of football role that Wright left. He was previously head of development and GM of football ops.

Mark McKenzie was in the list manger’s role and had moved up through the recruiting department under Wright.

There was also an ugly board battle but both sides of that fight where behind Mitchell and the course he was taken.



So, under Clarkson the “official” rebuild began at the end of 2019 with Mitchell being chosen as the next coach at the end of 2020.

There where a couple of trades done at the end of 2019 with Frost and Patton coming in cheap and they used their first two picks to draft Day and Maginness.



2020 saw them have a 5-win season. Again, they made a couple of cheap trades for Hartigan and Phillips and took 4 picks in the top 50 to get Garinger-Barrass, Seamus Mitchell, Connor Downie and Tyler Brockman.

2021 had a trade for Max Lynch. Again, for cheap. The draft haul was Josh Ward, Sam Butler, Connor McDonald, Jai Serong, Fin O’Hara, Ned Long and Jai Newcombe and Jackson Callow where mid-season picks.



2022 trades were Lloyd Meek and Cooper Stevens plus Karl Amon

10

Karl Amon

Age

29

Ht

181cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

6.8

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

294.5

4star

D

21.0

5star

K

15.0

5star

HB

6.0

3star

M

6.0

5star

T

2.0

3star

D

10.4

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.0

4star

MG

146.8

3star

as a free agent and Fergus Greene

26

Fergus Greene

Age

26

Ht

187cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.8

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.8

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.0

4star

as a desilted free agent. The draft was Cam McKenzie, Josh Weddle, Henry Huswaite, Jack O’Sullivan, Baily McDonald, Clay Tucker, Brando Ryan.



2023 trades where again cheap options. Chol, D’Ambrosio, Ginnivan and Gunston. The draft was Nick Watson, Will McCabe, Bodie Ryan, Calsher Dear, Ethan Phillips, Jasper Scaife.



So overall they have been moving on the premiership stars since 2016 with a couple leaving each year between 2016 and 2020. Some key players where already at the club when they pulled the plug at the end of 2019.



Of course they are also building from a strong position as far as culture and winning goes.

 

[jdstorm]

Why is comparing us to Hawthorn silly? They went with a full scale rebuild since 2019 and made finals with a young list.

I don't think the list is hopeless, but it's a bit of a reach to say it's going to improve next year. I think we need to go backwards before going forward.

Trading the likes of Wright, Shiel, Stringer and Parish (at a minimum) as well as moving on Kelly, Heppell, Setterfield etc means we'd be replacing them with younger less experienced players that will take time to bring what these experienced players brought to the side. It cuts into our depth which I think is necessary to rejuvenate our list.

That list is literally 7 players where 5-6 of whom would have been in the VFL if the side was at full health.

Plus you have Tsatas/Hobbs in the VFL ready to go and take some AFL minutes next season. From the mids listed above if they were on the list or not. They’ve been ripping through the VFL.

If you were making that same list of players at Essendon who could play in a GF this year or 5 years from now it’s McKay Ridley Roberts Martin Dursma Merrett Caldwell Durham Jones Bryan, Caddy, Langford,

Then your young maybe’s Hayes/Reid, Hobbs, Tsatas, Perkins/Cox

Older maybes Mcgrath Draper Gresham

The talent level on the list is there.

Don’t get me Wrong I don’t think we should top up. We should keep building sustainably an keep cycling older players out. But also adding 2 top 10 picks to this group including one bigger elite mid will go a long way

 

[Yoda_]

At the end of the day our prime midfield movers for 20 years have included Stanton, Heppell and Parish.

More qualified people than me think that's okay.

Made this comment in another thread recently.. what an embarrassment of a club in 50 - 100 years time..

"oh, Adrian Dodoro a life member. What did he do??"

Let me look it up. List manager?? geez, they must have been good!... Nope. Not a single finals win. Deep diver. not a single finish above 7th yet he is a life member..

Embarrassing how this club has operated for 20+ years

 

[Yoda_]

Drinking our own bathwater

Beating our chest, pretending to be a "big" club

inability to make hard calls

Desperate for success so inadvertently take short cuts

Instability off field

Coteries

Poor development

Poor recruiting & list management

Culture

Leadership

Never bottoming out but maintaining a 7th - 14th with shit percentage

Forward line is a mess

Backline is a shambles

Midfield is samey


Did I miss anything ? Reading the board it sounds like we should be lower than the 11th or whatever we will finish.

 

[bombreys]

He is being generous but its incredibly easy to see where the improvement comes from.

Remove Kelly, Heppell, Parish, Hobbs, Guelfi from the side and replace them with SEH, Duursma, a few young players that dont need to be superstars, just that can move and use the thing and we are miles ahead.

I strongly disagree. I can’t see how you could say that would put us ‘miles ahead’.

Those players were in our best 22.

El Hawli couldn’t get into the team - and I’m not sure how much improvement we’ll get from an MSD pick.

 

[Yoda_]

I strongly disagree. I can’t see how you could say that would put us ‘miles ahead’.

Those players were in our best 22.

El Hawli couldn’t get into the team - and I’m not sure how much improvement we’ll get from an MSD pick.

El-Hawli was in line to play but hurt his ankle which put him back. Wont be surprised one bit if he lines up in our round 1 team next year

 

[crackers65]

El-Hawli was in line to play but hurt his ankle which put him back. Wont be surprised one bit if he lines up in our round 1 team next year

I would love to see that. It would mean he has had a great pre season.

 

[Godzke]

Effort has really dropped off second half of the year

We won a number games in the first half of the season based on effort alone. The chemistry and execution was only marginally better then than what it is now.

Coaches wanted to trial numerous things this season and probably learned a lot off the back of it.

Given the trial and error approach, finishing at or above where most people would've expected at the start of the year is a reasonable result.

If we started the year 0-5 and finished 11-11-1 then most would be happy with that result.

Main changes needed for this season

• New fwd coach
• Attack free agency for forwards

See where that gets us next season and can then revisit defensive stocks when we've had another year to anaylse whether Reid, Ridley and Baldwin get fit, McKay settles in, Redman's defensive attitude improves, and how Roberts development looks.

 

[Call Me Cake]

We have an old list, older than 12 other clubs.

I know you clarified that you meant experience, however when looking our best 23 (selected on preference, not injury) prior to this round when Hepp didn't play we were 14th for age and 13th for games played. Which means there were 13 other clubs older than us and 12 more experienced.



The bigger question, is it an excuse? Fremantle were generally placed lower yet were at one stage vying for the top four. But I think it also depends on whether or not the older players you do select are the ones to rely on. The players we usually rely on to do the heavy lifting bar Merrett are Durham, Caldwell, Martin, et al, players that are 22-23 who hover around the 60 or below games mark. Whereas other teams have players on their list that are 250-300+ game players who are decorated vets and know when to interject/lift the team and were/are elite.

Our reliance on such inexperience to drive our engine room is a double-edged sword, on one hand it is a testament to the future in that they're getting such lessons early in carrying such a load on their shoulders and a testament to them when they overachieve for a while, but it also leaves us prone to dropping off as it is unreliable and too inconsistent to have the impact we would like.

And if players like Saad, Reid/Hayes, Kako, ect; make their way into the team our selected side is only set to become even more inexperienced.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I strongly disagree. I can’t see how you could say that would put us ‘miles ahead’.

Those players were in our best 22.

El Hawli couldn’t get into the team - and I’m not sure how much improvement we’ll get from an MSD pick.

The game plan is constantly breaking because we are fundamentally lacking in a few locations, it's not like other teams don't make mistakes, it's that they don't lack players with the appropriate attributes for their respective roles, which doesn't lead to constant ball movement break down.

We currently lack pace in the forward and running power in the midfield and kicking in the back line. These are our fundamental flaws that inhibit us from executing a system.

El Hawli would have been in our team after his first full vfl game where he had 27 and kicked 4 but injured himself very late. Clearly a level above and even looked so when he returned to the team after 8 weeks off. The guy is a natural runner and versatile too, all in positions of need. Add in Kako and we will actually be miles ahead on the back of those two given their attributes allow roles to be played that are currently vacant. Hopefully we can add in Murphy Reid, Travaglia or Lalor in the draft to address further needs.

 

[Agronomus]

At least we're not carlton or norf

 

[Rick Ross]

Why is comparing us to Hawthorn silly? They went with a full scale rebuild since 2019 and made finals with a young list.

I don't think the list is hopeless, but it's a bit of a reach to say it's going to improve next year. I think we need to go backwards before going forward.

Trading the likes of Wright, Shiel, Stringer and Parish (at a minimum) as well as moving on Kelly, Heppell, Setterfield etc means we'd be replacing them with younger less experienced players that will take time to bring what these experienced players brought to the side. It cuts into our depth which I think is necessary to rejuvenate our list.

Hawthorn definitely look like they are on the right track (noting they haven’t won a final with this team yet… but agree they look promising).

But for every Hawthorn, there are more fails - Norths, West coasts, Richmonds, St Kildas etc

 

[katana]

And if players like Saad, Reid/Hayes, Kako, ect; make their way into the team our selected side is only set to become even more inexperienced.

only one of these guys has ever played an afl game. what makes you think they'll start getting them next year?

 

[BrunoV]

Really just a long winded way to say we tanked for 3 years and used analytics and an understanding of list rules to develop a list/add talent in a balanced way.

They didn't tank for 3 years.

Mitchell started prior to the 2021 trade and draft period. His first season as coach was 2022. Despite their best efforts they didn't trade JOM and Tom Mitchell until the the of 2022.

They weren't rebuilding before that either. They'd just started taking picks again.

 

[bombreys]

El-Hawli was in line to play but hurt his ankle which put him back. Wont be surprised one bit if he lines up in our round 1 team next year

I rate him, but I don’t think there’s any chance he lines up round 1. We had one debutant (round 12) until round 22 this year.

 

[bombreys]

We won a number games in the first half of the season based on effort alone. The chemistry and execution was only marginally better then than what it is now.

Coaches wanted to trial numerous things this season and probably learned a lot off the back of it.

Given the trial and error approach, finishing at or above where most people would've expected at the start of the year is a reasonable result.

If we started the year 0-5 and finished 11-11-1 then most would be happy with that result.

Main changes needed for this season

• New fwd coach
• Attack free agency for forwards

See where that gets us next season and can then revisit defensive stocks when we've had another year to anaylse whether Reid, Ridley and Baldwin get fit, McKay settles in, Redman's defensive attitude improves, and how Roberts development looks.

Agree with pretty much all of that - I think Baldwin may have had one too many injuries though and is delisted (as much as I like him).

I’m fine with our finish (11/11/1), I just still want us to properly bottom our for 2 or 3 years

 

[bombreys]

I know you clarified that you meant experience, however when looking our best 23 (selected on preference, not injury) prior to this round when Hepp didn't play we were 14th for age and 13th for games played. Which means there were 13 other clubs older than us and 12 more experienced.

View attachment 2090803

The bigger question, is it an excuse? Fremantle were generally placed lower yet were at one stage vying for the top four. But I think it also depends on whether or not the older players you do select are the ones to rely on. The players we usually rely on to do the heavy lifting bar Merrett are Durham, Caldwell, Martin, et al, players that are 22-23 who hover around the 60 or below games mark. Whereas other teams have players on their list that are 250-300+ game players who are decorated vets and know when to interject/lift the team and were/are elite.

Our reliance on such inexperience to drive our engine room is a double-edged sword, on one hand it is a testament to the future in that they're getting such lessons early in carrying such a load on their shoulders and a testament to them when they overachieve for a while, but it also leaves us prone to dropping off as it is unreliable and too inconsistent to have the impact we would like.

And if players like Saad, Reid/Hayes, Kako, ect; make their way into the team our selected side is only set to become even more inexperienced.

Some fair points.

I have no issue with playing older guys - generally speaking, young teams are towards the bottom of the ladder. I get the reason for playing them, I just question a) the players themselves (Kelly and Laverde are no longer anywhere near AFL quality) and b) how form doesn’t seem to matter in any way

Goldy I thought was a smart pick up. But the way he was handled, at least imo, was disastrous. He shouldn’t have played anywhere near as much as he did the first 15 (or however many it was) games of the season. It ruined his end to the season, he was cooked. Bring in Bryan, and if he’s shit after 2 games, send him back to the VFL and bring a refreshed Goldy back in. If he’s (Bryan) good, that’s great - we stick our 36yo ruck in the VFL as a back up until a spot opens up.

Guelfi last night was yet another moronic decision to play an older guy ahead of some youth - anyone with half a brain knew rushing him back underdone and with no VFL would lead to another hammy.

Older/more experienced guys are fine - and you absolutely need them - they just shouldn’t be played at absolutely any cost. They should be held to the same standards as everyone else.

 

[Yoda_]

I rate him, but I don’t think there’s any chance he lines up round 1. We had one debutant (round 12) until round 22 this year.

he isn't a fresh 18 year old. The dude has a number of (VFL) pre seasons behind him and form against mature bodies. Every chance he plays round 1 next year

 

[bombreys]

The game plan is constantly breaking because we are fundamentally lacking in a few locations, it's not like other teams don't make mistakes, it's that they don't lack players with the appropriate attributes for their respective roles, which doesn't lead to constant ball movement break down.

We currently lack pace in the forward and running power in the midfield and kicking in the back line. These are our fundamental flaws that inhibit us from executing a system.

El Hawli would have been in our team after his first full vfl game where he had 27 and kicked 4 but injured himself very late. Clearly a level above and even looked so when he returned to the team after 8 weeks off. The guy is a natural runner and versatile too, all in positions of need. Add in Kako and we will actually be miles ahead on the back of those two given their attributes allow roles to be played that are currently vacant. Hopefully we can add in Murphy Reid, Travaglia or Lalor in the draft to address further needs.

We’ll have to agree to disagree. Two guys that haven’t played a single game aren’t going to put us ‘miles ahead’. I also strongly doubt Kako will play much, if any senior footy next year.

 

[bombreys]

he isn't a fresh 18 year old. The dude has a number of (VFL) pre seasons behind him and form against mature bodies. Every chance he plays round 1 next year

We shall see. Who does he come in for?