Why Geelong will overtake Hawthorn and become the on field AFL powerhouse

[you pick one]

They have won 4 , we have won 3 premierships . However we won our premierships without a draft pick below 7 while they had pciks 1,2,3,5 and 6.They than were able to attract players from other clubs because they had a talented young list.

They are a well run club but we are a better run club.

My opinion is the Hawks read the tea leaves better than all other clubs and while clubs like Geelong were gearing up for the latter half of this decade and the expected arrival of a couple of super outfits in the Gold Coast and GWS,the Hawks took another tact deciding there were premierships up for grabs now and the were well placed if they used the new free agency wisely.I expect they will pay a price down the line but it will be worth it even if the success stoped here.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

My opinion is the Hawks read the tea leaves better than all other clubs and while clubs like Geelong were gearing up for the latter half of this decade and the expected arrival of a couple of super outfits in the Gold Coast and GWS,the Hawks took another tact deciding there were premierships up for grabs now and the were well placed if they used the new free agency wisely.I expect they will pay a price down the line but it will be worth it even if the success stoped here.

Luck comes into it in recruiting/keepin/clearing certain players

Everyone knows about Johnson failing the medical at Collingwood - that was Geelongs good fortune

Hawthorn got Lake ( who was excellent ) to fill that void at full back for them - but the previous year - they wanted Tom Gillies !!!!! - for that exact same role - Neil Balme came out at the time and said he is a required player and contracted player - and Hawthorn have got zero chance of getting him - i would say that was mighty lucky for the Hawks - he was dead set hopeless for Melbourne - just imagine Gillies at fullback - in their 4 - (1 goal and less PF wins)

Dont discount a bit of luck/good fortune in whom ends up where

 

[vinum coupe]

Based on what exactly?

Based on the fact they're about to build a 50 million dollar training facility and we're training at......
Oh whoops. Newtown.

 

[dazbroncos]

Interesting thread... there's a few concepts here. Lets break it down

1. Will Hawthorn decline - are they capable of winning any more flags this decade
Is it possible to answer yes twice here?
With Lake & Hale both retiring this year and 1 or 2 more to follow at the end of 2016 then there is certainly a war chest to recruit 1 or 2 free agents or kids fleeing GWS/GC if they were keen to play for the Hawks

I think the loss of Lake could be a big one though interestingly he won't be as much of a loss against Richmond and Port Adelaide - two of the sides that are tipped to be contenders over the next couple of years. Frawley is our best matchup for Kennedy too. Lakes loss will be most noticeable against Sydney, Collingwood and Geelong - will that matter if none of those sides are in contention in 2016 which brings us to...

2. How will Geelongs fare in 2016 with their new recruits
In case you hadn't realised... Dangerfield is a gun. As teams won't tag both Danger and Selwood then they both might be better players together than they were on their own.
Ok hands up who thought I was referring to Scott Selwood there? No one - so no need to ask whether Scott Selwood will improve your side
Smith - tough one here. How many out of Clark, Blicavs, Smith, Stanley, Vardy are playing in the team. Is Smith best 22 or depth? I'd think Stanley and Blicavs are best 22. How many spots are the others fighting for?
Henderson - is an upgrade on Rivers
The $64 question is will the improvement there merely counter the decline in the output of senior players and retirements from last year or will they actually improve the side?
Also if sides like Sydney and Fremantle are on the slide then Geelong might only need a slight improvement to sneak into the top 4 in 2016

3. Where are Geelong in the medium term - is there enough improvement in the kids to offset the looming retirements
That Geelong has already traded its 2016 first round pick can't be ignored (though I think geelongcrazy has overlooked this)
Would it be fair to say that the 2016 Geelong side will be better than the 2017 side? More players will decline over the following 12 months and no first round pick coming in

4. Will Geelongs team be better than Hawthorns over the next few years?
The assumptions I've seen in the thread so far are that Hawthorn won't do any more recruiting and the older players are about to go off a cliff.
Where is Hawthorn 2015 compared to the Geelong era. Is Hawthorn 2015 = Geelong 2011? If so then there might still be 3 more years of top 4 finishing with a chance to win another flag

5. Can Geelong win 2 flags by the end of the decade
I'll say no to this one. Unless you recruit another couple of Dangerfields I think there's too many older players still on the list

Good reasonable response.

Ill only add one perspective on this. Our #1 rucks have been shit since Otto. And no team has exposed that more than you blokes. Hale and McEvoy have just ripped us new ones. And its killed us. Now Hale is gone so presumably McEvoy and (Ceglar) are the two you'll carry.

With Smith, we have a true # 1 to go with your blokes. Stanley is the counter punch as well. I agree the jury is out on both of them - but lets just say they both play and are fit. Even just getting having ordinary games for us will give us more than we've had of late - and that makes us better already. If they actually get going it will be exponential from there. The strength of your guys has not just been their effectiveness at the bounces, but effecting the game in play - especially linking up and marking balls going forward - normal ruck activity really.

If our two can break even or add that to our game, that makes us very more balanced.

As for Blitz, Id expect to see him play as more of a pure MF - sure he'll be 3rd man up to but to take the #1 ruck duties from him should add more to his ability thru the game - just not taking so much from him in a strength perspective.

Will be interesting to see no doubt.

Go Catters

 

[Bobby_]

5. Can Geelong win 2 flags by the end of the decade
I'll say no to this one. Unless you recruit another couple of Dangerfields I think there's too many older players still on the list

I disagree there.
The older players who remain are Bartel, Lonergan, Mackie, Taylor & Enright. Of all those players, Lonergan, Taylor and Enright finished top 10 in the B&F.
Mackie was terrible and finished 19th. Bartel also dropped away but he did injure his knee early on which may have impacted his output on return.

Either way, it was great to see so many older faces depart at the end of this year. The club can now pump games into younger players and hopefully this results in another rise up the ladder in subsequent years.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Based on what exactly?

Our earliest draft pick was draft pick was 7.

Hawthorn had draft picks 1,2,3,5 and 6.

It was off the back of these draft picks that they recruited talented young players and became appealing to mature age players from other clubs.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Interesting thread... there's a few concepts here. Lets break it down

1. Will Hawthorn decline - are they capable of winning any more flags this decade
Is it possible to answer yes twice here?
With Lake & Hale both retiring this year and 1 or 2 more to follow at the end of 2016 then there is certainly a war chest to recruit 1 or 2 free agents or kids fleeing GWS/GC if they were keen to play for the Hawks

I think the loss of Lake could be a big one though interestingly he won't be as much of a loss against Richmond and Port Adelaide - two of the sides that are tipped to be contenders over the next couple of years. Frawley is our best matchup for Kennedy too. Lakes loss will be most noticeable against Sydney, Collingwood and Geelong - will that matter if none of those sides are in contention in 2016 which brings us to...

2. How will Geelongs fare in 2016 with their new recruits
In case you hadn't realised... Dangerfield is a gun. As teams won't tag both Danger and Selwood then they both might be better players together than they were on their own.
Ok hands up who thought I was referring to Scott Selwood there? No one - so no need to ask whether Scott Selwood will improve your side
Smith - tough one here. How many out of Clark, Blicavs, Smith, Stanley, Vardy are playing in the team. Is Smith best 22 or depth? I'd think Stanley and Blicavs are best 22. How many spots are the others fighting for?
Henderson - is an upgrade on Rivers
The $64 question is will the improvement there merely counter the decline in the output of senior players and retirements from last year or will they actually improve the side?
Also if sides like Sydney and Fremantle are on the slide then Geelong might only need a slight improvement to sneak into the top 4 in 2016

3. Where are Geelong in the medium term - is there enough improvement in the kids to offset the looming retirements
That Geelong has already traded its 2016 first round pick can't be ignored (though I think geelongcrazy has overlooked this)
Would it be fair to say that the 2016 Geelong side will be better than the 2017 side? More players will decline over the following 12 months and no first round pick coming in

4. Will Geelongs team be better than Hawthorns over the next few years?
The assumptions I've seen in the thread so far are that Hawthorn won't do any more recruiting and the older players are about to go off a cliff.
Where is Hawthorn 2015 compared to the Geelong era. Is Hawthorn 2015 = Geelong 2011? If so then there might still be 3 more years of top 4 finishing with a chance to win another flag

5. Can Geelong win 2 flags by the end of the decade
I'll say no to this one. Unless you recruit another couple of Dangerfields I think there's too many older players still on the list

Problem for Hawthorn is that they required a stack of early draft picks to build a young talented list which than enabled them to lure in good mature age players from other clubs .

Geelong do not require early draft picks and will always appeal to mature age players from other clubs due to our geographical location.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Guys the early draft picks that Hawthorn had which include picks 1,2,3,5 and 6 is no different to Sydney's COLA allowance .

We had no such advantage.

 

[flinchfree]

Problem for Hawthorn is that they required a stack of early draft picks to build a young talented list which than enabled them to lure in good mature age players from other clubs .

Geelong do not require early draft picks and will always appeal to mature age players from other clubs due to our geographical location.

Hold on, have you ever said this before? No? You've broken some serious ground here, in fact you've re-broken it so often I can't step over all the smashed concrete.
Don't hold back on your premise for surely some may miss it....unless of course you post it 29 more times in this thread.
Why won't they bite you wonder? Your fellow Geelong BF posters. Surely you shouldn't have to wait for a Hawk supporter, I mean the logic is so forceful, so empirical.....

If the Hawks get some high draft picks in the future, can I by natural extension simply expect them to turn into elite players able to deliver on their predestined fate of winning premierships for the Brown and Gold?
If so, yummy.

 

[Bobby_]

We had no such advantage.

Scarlett, Ablett 1 & 2, Blake, Hawkins have had a big say in our recent success.

 

[The rabbi]

yep, winning this years grand final pretty much seals it for me.
Great football club. If they somehow pull off another one next year . . . bloody hell! What more can you say.

I'm sure that some sad sack deluded Geelong supporter will find a way to argue that Geelong has had a better history than Hawthorn since the turn of the millennium.

They have won 4 , we have won 3 premierships . However we won our premierships without a draft pick below 7 while they had pciks 1,2,3,5 and 6.They than were able to attract players from other clubs because they had a talented young list.

They are a well run club but we are a better run club.​

​

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Hold on, have you ever said this before? No? You've broken some serious ground here, in fact you've re-broken it so often I can't step over all the smashed concrete.
Don't hold back on your premise for surely some may miss it....unless of course you post it 29 more times in this thread.
Why won't they bite you wonder? Your fellow Geelong BF posters. Surely you shouldn't have to wait for a Hawk supporter, I mean the logic is so forceful, so empirical.....

If the Hawks get some high draft picks in the future, can I by natural extension simply expect them to turn into elite players able to deliver on their predestined fate of winning premierships for the Brown and Gold?
If so, yummy.

You killed of the priority draft system .

 

[Vdubs]

I disagree there.
The older players who remain are Bartel, Lonergan, Mackie, Taylor & Enright. Of all those players, Lonergan, Taylor and Enright finished top 10 in the B&F.
Mackie was terrible and finished 19th. Bartel also dropped away but he did injure his knee early on which may have impacted his output on return.

Either way, it was great to see so many older faces depart at the end of this year. The club can now pump games into younger players and hopefully this results in another rise up the ladder in subsequent years.

Sadly, our B & F represents the sort of year we had, very underwhelming.

 

[flinchfree]

Oh, and as for this thread.

I don't see any reason why Geelong can't be the more successful side going forward.
Do I want it? No. Could it happen? Sure.
Sports are brilliant in that largely, you can have great affect on your winning chances. Now that may
only count for reliably beating 13-14 sides out of 18, but with an exceptional organization filled with great people
you can swing the balance your way.
That's why Clarko sets the barometer at finishing top 4. Anything more than that and you're pretending you know more
than you do. But you CAN reliably win more than you lose, and with players who are that little bit special, you have the chance to do special things.
The thing that can get in your way is a competing great team whose window mirrors your own, and who steals a little of what might have been yours.
That's why you should hate us. The 80's Cats teams of Bairstow, Hinkley, Couch, Bews, Ablett, Stoneham.....they were fricking amazing to watch, and could have been anything. I loved watching them play. They just ran into another extraordinary side also seeking history, and whose game style ended up being the more successful.
Both teams made the Blues of the mid to late 90's look downright ordinary for talent, so much so I always find it insulting when Carlton supporters speak so reverentially about the Kouta teams like they were all-time something. They were simply great at playing their style for a few years, is all. With plenty of ordinary players in the 22.

But this whole draft pick numbers will give you success shite is ridiculous. You develop champions by being one every day, in the way you approach your work, your life, and yourself. Champion teams are full of players who plug in to a story, and that's why a great story teller like Clarko can do what he does.
Yes you'd be better with the angry little man running your ship.
Stuff you, you're never getting him.

 

[Cataholic]

Oh, and as for this thread.

I don't see any reason why Geelong can't be the more successful side going forward.
Do I want it? No. Could it happen? Sure.
Sports are brilliant in that largely, you can have great affect on your winning chances. Now that may
only count for reliably beating 13-14 sides out of 18, but with an exceptional organization filled with great people
you can swing the balance your way.
That's why Clarko sets the barometer at finishing top 4. Anything more than that and you're pretending you know more
than you do. But you CAN reliably win more than you lose, and with players who are that little bit special, you have the chance to do special things.
The thing that can get in your way is a competing great team whose window mirrors your own, and who steals a little of what might have been yours.
That's why you should hate us. The 80's Cats teams of Bairstow, Hinkley, Couch, Bews, Ablett, Stoneham.....they were fricking amazing to watch, and could have been anything. I loved watching them play. They just ran into another extraordinary side also seeking history, and whose game style ended up being the more successful.
Both teams made the Blues of the late 90's look downright ordinary for talent, so much so I always find it insulting when Carlton supporters speak so reverentially about the Kouta teams like they were all-time something. They were simply great at playing their style for a few years, is all. With plenty or ordinary players in the 22.

But this whole draft pick numbers will give you success shite is ridiculous. You develop champions by being one every day, in the way you approach your work, your life, and yourself. Champion teams are full of players who plug in to a story, and that's why a great story teller like Clarko can do what he does.
Yes you'd be better with the angry little man running your ship.
Stuff you, you're never getting him.

God I hate admitting that a Hawks supporter has presented a sensible post with respect and humility, but goddamn it, you just did

Well said, and I agree with your sentiments, as it applies to any club. But you can keep the angry dwarf

 

[Vdubs]

Oh, and as for this thread.

I don't see any reason why Geelong can't be the more successful side going forward.
Do I want it? No. Could it happen? Sure.
Sports are brilliant in that largely, you can have great affect on your winning chances. Now that may
only count for reliably beating 13-14 sides out of 18, but with an exceptional organization filled with great people
you can swing the balance your way.
That's why Clarko sets the barometer at finishing top 4. Anything more than that and you're pretending you know more
than you do. But you CAN reliably win more than you lose, and with players who are that little bit special, you have the chance to do special things.
The thing that can get in your way is a competing great team whose window mirrors your own, and who steals a little of what might have been yours.
That's why you should hate us. The 80's Cats teams of Bairstow, Hinkley, Couch, Bews, Ablett, Stoneham.....they were fricking amazing to watch, and could have been anything. I loved watching them play. They just ran into another extraordinary side also seeking history, and whose game style ended up being the more successful.
Both teams made the Blues of the late 90's look downright ordinary for talent, so much so I always find it insulting when Carlton supporters speak so reverentially about the Kouta teams like they were all-time something. They were simply great at playing their style for a few years, is all. With plenty of ordinary players in the 22.

But this whole draft pick numbers will give you success shite is ridiculous. You develop champions by being one every day, in the way you approach your work, your life, and yourself. Champion teams are full of players who plug in to a story, and that's why a great story teller like Clarko can do what he does.
Yes you'd be better with the angry little man running your ship.
Stuff you, you're never getting him.

Excellent post.

 

[Partridge]

Our earliest draft pick was draft pick was 7.

Hawthorn had draft picks 1,2,3,5 and 6.

It was off the back of these draft picks that they recruited talented young players and became appealing to mature age players from other clubs.

That's barely an answer, and not a good one.

I'll reiterate, please elaborate why we are a better run club than Hawthorn.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

That's barely an answer, and not a good one.

I'll reiterate, please elaborate why we are a better run club than Hawthorn.

Winning 3 premierships with no draft picks below number 7 suggest that we are a better run than a club that has won 4 premierships with draft picks 1,2,3,5 and 6.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Winning 3 premierships with no draft picks below number 7 suggest that we are a better run than a club that has won 4 premierships with draft picks 1,2,3,5 and 6.

If draft picks alone were the measure, then Melbourne would have won the last 5 flags.

 

[MightyHawks]

I disagree there.
The older players who remain are Bartel, Lonergan, Mackie, Taylor & Enright. Of all those players, Lonergan, Taylor and Enright finished top 10 in the B&F.
Mackie was terrible and finished 19th. Bartel also dropped away but he did injure his knee early on which may have impacted his output on return.

Either way, it was great to see so many older faces depart at the end of this year. The club can now pump games into younger players and hopefully this results in another rise up the ladder in subsequent years.

Problem for Hawthorn is that they required a stack of early draft picks to build a young talented list which than enabled them to lure in good mature age players from other clubs .

Geelong do not require early draft picks and will always appeal to mature age players from other clubs due to our geographical location.

Ok now you guys have disagreed with my suggestion that Geelong will struggle to win 2 flags by the end of the decade while Hawthorn win none.

Yes I can see improvement in Geelong next year, but 2 flags in 5 years is a massive ask.

I don't expect Geelong to win another flag in the next 5 years. I can see 1 or 2 top 4 finishes - maybe if everything goes your way you could win a flag but just can't see 2 in 5.

Lonergan, Taylor and Enright are all not playing in 2018 onwards - that's a massive hole to fill in the backline

I haven't yet seen a detailed plan as to how Geelong could win 2 flags in the next 5 years - c'mon
geelong_crazy26 - how do you actually see it happening? Details please...

 

[Partridge]

Winning 3 premierships with no draft picks below number 7 suggest that we are a better run than a club that has won 4 premierships with draft picks 1,2,3,5 and 6.

The last of them was four years ago. In any case, drafting is only one aspect of a football club. What about finance? Did they lose money like we did last year? What about memberships? Do they have more or less than us?

Ultimately, football clubs are measured by premierships. The rest is just spin and feel good bullshit.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

The last of them was four years ago. In any case, drafting is only one aspect of a football club. What about finance? Did they lose money like we did last year? What about memberships? Do they have more or less than us?

Ultimately, football clubs are measured by premierships. The rest is just spin and feel good bullshit.

I agree , hence why we will be a more successful football club going forward because we will win more premierships . Notice how I said Geelong will soon overtake Hawthorn ?

They had the help of early draft picks just like Sydney had the help of COLA.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

If draft picks alone were the measure, then Melbourne would have won the last 5 flags.

Clearly Melbourne have not been a well run club .

The best 3 clubs on the field are Geelong,Hawthorn and Sydney . Only hawthorn had draft picks below 7.

Imagine if Geelong or Syndey had picks 1,2,3,5 and 6 ?

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Ok now you guys have disagreed with my suggestion that Geelong will struggle to win 2 flags by the end of the decade while Hawthorn win none.

Yes I can see improvement in Geelong next year, but 2 flags in 5 years is a massive ask.

I don't expect Geelong to win another flag in the next 5 years. I can see 1 or 2 top 4 finishes - maybe if everything goes your way you could win a flag but just can't see 2 in 5.

Lonergan, Taylor and Enright are all not playing in 2018 onwards - that's a massive hole to fill in the backline

I haven't yet seen a detailed plan as to how Geelong could win 2 flags in the next 5 years - c'mon
geelong_crazy26 - how do you actually see it happening? Details please...

From a long term point of view I can sum it up simply

Geelong don't require early draft picks or salary cap concessions to win premierships.

Geelong will also benefit more than any other club from free agency because of our unique geographical location .Hawthorn are just 1 of 9 clubs in Melbourne .

 

[Procrastinator35]

Clearly Melbourne have not been a well run club .

The best 3 clubs on the field are Geelong,Hawthorn and Sydney . Only hawthorn had draft picks below 7.

Imagine if Geelong or Syndey had picks 1,2,3,5 and 6 ?

Well clearly your mob has never bottomed-out or been entirely shit-full, like we were from 2002-2005, else-wise you would have.

Lets look at the so-called supa-draft of 2006....The year your mob finished one place (10th) ahead of us; prior to your record-breaking resurgence.

We took Thorp at 6, you Selwood at 7....Fat lot of good that pick did us....As for Selwood? You be the judge.

High-end draft picks don't mean diddly-squat, unless they work out in the long-run....That's what makes drafting somewhat of a lottery....There are no guarantees....Look at our record over the past 15 seasons & you'll find we've blown as many, if not more, than we've scored with.

Everyone just gets hysterical when they see we nailed the one key draft in 2004: 2/Roughead, 5/Franklin & 7/Lewis....You can thank Richmond for that bounty.