Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[TubbsFarquhar]

Said in the non-discussion thread that Saturday night is essentially an Elimination Final. Win, and we're in assuming other results go our way.

Saints
Cats @ Marvel
Lions @ Gabba

Swans
Us
Dees away

Dogs
Eagles @ Marvel
Cats @ Goomba Stadium

Essendon
Giants away
Collingwood

GWS
Essendon home
Carlton @ Marvel

Cats
Saints @ Marvel
Dogs @ Goomba Stadium

GWS vs Essendon being fixtured next weekend is hugely ideal as they both have their own elimination finals (plus a much harder last game)

This week, we need:
Saints to beat Geelong to knock them out of contention
Us to win (obviously)

Both just about 50/50 games (ok, maybe 60/40 in our favour as we're at home).


Round 24:
Collingwood def. Essendon
Carlton def. GWS
Geelong def. Bulldogs
Melbourne def. Sydney
Us def. Eagles (you'd ****ing hope so)

All would be favourites to happen, but obviously that doesn't mean anything.

That would set us up for an away EF vs Saints. If one of the other results eventuates, we play Carlton away which would be a nightmare, mostly because of the reaming we'd get from the umps.

The only way we can get a home final is if the Dogs lose to the Eagles, and it's no point even entertaining that.

 

[Aussie_boy]

Pretty confident we'll make it if we win this week.

If we get up it gets us to 48 (assuming we beat the Eags....)-
Overtake St Kilda if they lose to Cats and Lions at the Gabba
Overtake Sydney if they lose to Melbourne
Overtake Bulldogs if they lose to Cats at alphabet park
One of Ess/GWS will lose this week so guaranteed to overtake one, plus the other if they lose to pies/blues last round
Overtake Cats if they lose this either week

All in all pretty likely that enough of those will happen if the job is done this Saturday night. Biggest home game in over 5 years.

 

[spenze]

If we get 50+ Inside 50’s (which is likely) I’ll back us in to win.

Reckon we have Rankine back, run him a bit further up the ground and we will be good

 

[kirky]

From First Crack since 2000 when current final series came into existence -

1st - won 8 flags and grand finalists 16 times and made PF 23 of 23 - no straight sets exit
2nd - won 7 flags and grand finalists 12 times and PF 21 of 23 - 2 straight sets exit
3rd - won 7 flags and grand finalists 12 times and PF 19 of 23 - 4 straight sets exit
4th - won 0 flags and grand finalists 3 times and PF 19 of 23 - 4 straight sets exit. Only Geelong (Covid Year) in 2020 made a GF in the past 16 years.

And of course Bulldogs are the only side to win from outside top 4.

 

[kirky]

Pretty confident we'll make it if we win this week.

If we get up it gets us to 48 (assuming we beat the Eags....)-
Overtake St Kilda if they lose to Cats and Lions at the Gabba
Overtake Sydney if they lose to Melbourne
Overtake Bulldogs if they lose to Cats at alphabet park
One of Ess/GWS will lose this week so guaranteed to overtake one, plus the other if they lose to pies/blues last round
Overtake Cats if they lose this either week

All in all pretty likely that enough of those will happen if the job is done this Saturday night. Biggest home game in over 5 years.

Biggest home game since the 2017 Preliminary Final.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Pre-season - Adelaide 10th at 13-10
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 6 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 7 - Adelaide 7th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 8 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to St Kilda in Semi
After Rd 9 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Richmond in Elimination, Lose to Brisbane in Semi
After Rd 10 - Adelaide 10th at 12-11
After Rd 11 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Defeat Western Bulldogs in Smi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 12 - Adelaide 9th at 13-10
After Rd 13 - Adelaide 8th at 13-10 Lose to Gold Coast in Elimination
After Rd 14 - Adelaide 6th at 13-10 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Defeat Port Adelaide in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 15 - Adelaide 5th at 14-9 Defeat Fremantle in Elimination, Lose to Brisbane in Semi
After Rd 16 - Adelaide 5th at 14-9 Defeat Geelong in Elimination, Lose to Melbourne in Semi
After Rd 17 - Adelaide 5th at 13-10 Defeat Geelong in Elimination, Lose to Melbourne in Semi
After Rd 18 - Adelaide 8th at 12-11 Lose to Greater Western Sydney in Elimination
After Rd 19 - Adelaide 11th at 11-12
After Rd 20 - Adelaide 6th at 13-10 Defeat Western Bulldogs in Elimination, Lose to Greater Western Sydney in Semi
After Rd 21 - Adelaide 7th at 13-10 Defeat Carlton in Elimination, Defeat Port Adelaide in Semi, Defeat Collingwood in Prelim, Lose to Melbourne in Grand
After Rd 22 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat Geelong in Elimination, Defeat Port Adelaide in Semi, Lose to Brisbane in Prelim

 

[Crows I Am]

This season is the most enjoyment I have gotten from watching the crows in a long long time, that for me is a tick.

Same here, I sort of gave up on us making finals a while ago, so have just been enjoying watching our games without too much expectation. I've loved watching our progress this year, and haven't let the losses upset me too much as in my mind we weren't making finals so I've just been enjoying the ride. In my mind next year was always the year we would be a genuine shot at pushing up into the top 4.

We have clearly improved from last year and have been playing some exciting footy, we have still had some frustrating losses (Bulldogs, Gold Coast and GWS x2) but on the most part we have been competitive in all our other losses and could have easily won all of them.

Now we are looking like a good chance to make the finals this year that is just a massive bonus and again I'm just going to enjoy the ride with whatever happens.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Biggest home game since the 2017 Preliminary Final.

I hope we see the same intensity from the boys. Brutal.

 

[Rank]

Said in the non-discussion thread that Saturday night is essentially an Elimination Final. Win, and we're in assuming other results go our way.

Saints
Cats @ Marvel
Lions @ Gabba

Swans
Us
Dees away

Dogs
Eagles @ Marvel
Cats @ Goomba Stadium

Essendon
Giants away
Collingwood

GWS
Essendon home
Carlton @ Marvel

Cats
Saints @ Marvel
Dogs @ Goomba Stadium

GWS vs Essendon being fixtured next weekend is hugely ideal as they both have their own elimination finals (plus a much harder last game)

This week, we need:
Saints to beat Geelong to knock them out of contention
Us to win (obviously)

Both just about 50/50 games (ok, maybe 60/40 in our favour as we're at home).


Round 24:
Collingwood def. Essendon
Carlton def. GWS
Geelong def. Bulldogs
Melbourne def. Sydney
Us def. Eagles (you'd ******* hope so)

All would be favourites to happen, but obviously that doesn't mean anything.

That would set us up for an away EF vs Saints. If one of the other results eventuates, we play Carlton away which would be a nightmare, mostly because of the reaming we'd get from the umps.

The only way we can get a home final is if the Dogs lose to the Eagles, and it's no point even entertaining that.

I couldn't see the Cats beating the dogs if they go down to the Saints, Their season would be over and the que would probably go in the rack along with their best players a week early.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

I couldn't see the Cats beating the dogs if they go down to the Saints, Their season would be over and the que would probably go in the rack along with their best players a week early.

The Dogs are Geelong's bunnies, and they haven't won down there in 20 years. I'd still back Geelong.

 

[119others]

Pretty confident we'll make it if we win this week.

If we get up it gets us to 48 (assuming we beat the Eags....)-
Overtake St Kilda if they lose to Cats and Lions at the Gabba
Overtake Sydney if they lose to Melbourne
Overtake Bulldogs if they lose to Cats at alphabet park
One of Ess/GWS will lose this week so guaranteed to overtake one, plus the other if they lose to pies/blues last round
Overtake Cats if they lose this either week

All in all pretty likely that enough of those will happen if the job is done this Saturday night. Biggest home game in over 5 years.

Any teams fixing a draw to screw us? Dons vs GWS this week…

 

[119others]

If you were pricing a market, what's the line?

9.5 points with sportsbet

 

[rabidcrow]

Is anyone actually confident of beating Sydney?

We've been their bitches for a while now.

Interesting fact… maybe not

When we played Sydney last year and they started like a house on fire - Buddy had more tackles in the first quarter than he had had in a game that year and they kicked 9 - Sydney had done their leadership review meeting that week. The hard word was put on several leaders but especially Buddy

Guess what they have this week?

They do these 2/3 times a year and the sessions can be quite galvanising. I will be watching with interest as to whether they get the super start again


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[119others]

I hope we see the same intensity from the boys. Brutal.

Rankine back and Rachele full game after meaningfully impacting yesterday. Sloane or Mc Henry to sub

 

[rabidcrow]

I couldn't see the Cats beating the dogs if they go down to the Saints, Their season would be over and the que would probably go in the rack along with their best players a week early.

The Dogs are soft as ice cream if you compete for a while in the middle against them. They were woeful today - their much vaunted midfield complete outplayed by some rookie picks and a couple of kids (and Day)


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[Rank]

The Dogs are soft as ice cream if you compete for a while in the middle against them. They were woeful today - their much vaunted midfield complete outplayed by some rookie picks and a couple of kids (and Day)


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Gave us our biggest hiding of the year.
I still reckon our best shot of making the 8 is obviously winning our last 2 and Geelong beating both Saints and dogs, Along with Lions beating Saints.

 

[rabidcrow]

So looking at the ladder. If we were to beat Sydney and make into 7th or 8th and current top 7 make the 8 (not sure if that’s possible) we would have a record of 6 wins and 4 losses to the other finalist with all losses below a goal and 3 of those away from home. As it is that record holds true for the top 6 at the moment with one less win


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[Crow till I die]

I am old enough to remember when we had to rely on essendon doing us a favor when they played st kilda in the last game of the season..we had won our game from memory and it needed essendon to not lose by more that something like 100 points to ensure we finished 4th. They rolled over, we finished 5th and lost a home elimination final against collingwood and were out.

Sorry if i can't get the enthusiasm others have of us making finals now as i have no faith that other results will roll our way and we need a bunch of them...but it would make a nice surprise if they did.

 

[Mattrox]

Gave us our biggest hiding of the year.
I still reckon our best shot of making the 8 is obviously winning our last 2 and Geelong beating both Saints and dogs, Along with Lions beating Saints.

Injury affected game at a shi+hole of a ground.


That said, any final played in Melbourne will have a Pannell free kick count and never be allowed near the goals without a whistle. We will be seen as the underdog and inferior team, hence every 50-50 will fall their way because "you give away more frees when you are playing worse and chasing". Colour me cynical, but we haven't put performances together to be considered serious contenders. Subconscious bias is strong.

On SM-G781B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Sanders]

So which of the next 2 eminently winnable games, that we will start clear favourites in, will we lose to miss finals?

This whole season has been stained by inexplicable losses that have undone our progress.

It’s almost giving off a 2015 smell.

 

[Rank]

I am old enough to remember when we had to rely on essendon doing us a favor when they played st kilda in the last game of the season..we had won our game from memory and it needed essendon to not lose by more that something like 100 points to ensure we finished 4th. They rolled over, we finished 5th and lost a home elimination final against collingwood and were out.

Sorry if i can't get the enthusiasm others have of us making finals now as i have no faith that other results will roll our way and we need a bunch of them...but it would make a nice surprise if they did.

Yep I remember that, And that's why we'd rather Carlton playing for a top 6 spot against GWS in that last game if we are relying on a GWS loss.

 

[Crow till I die]

GF replay in week one as Dogs fall over? AFL finals equation for all 13 contenders with 2 rounds left

Ridiculous FOUR-way tie for 8th hangs over AFL’s closest race ever — Finals scenarios for every team

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Dangarman]

OK, so we can't get ahead of Carlton now. But clearly we need to beat Syd and WC to get 12 wins. Because I get off playing with probabilities, here goes. The following assumes we win out, and considers who can finish in front of us (by getting to 12.5 or 13 wins noting our superior percentage over WB, Ess and GWS). Further draws are not considered - if that happens I need to start all over again. I've built a spreadsheet where I can enter odds for each game to calculate probabilities. As results pan out I can update that game likelihood to 100%.

As I type there are SB odds for next week, but not R24.

There are 8 other games that matter. That would make 256 possibilities. However, we can isolate them into 3 independent groups each with minimal outcomes, and combine those outcomes.

A. The first group is GWS vs Ess, GWS vs Carl, and Ess vs Collingwood. This has 8 combinations with 2 possible outcomes: one or none of GWS and Ess finish in front. GWS win both or Ess win both puts 1 of them ahead, the other 4 combos both miss out.
Using published odds of $1.38 for GWS to beat Ess, and $1.50 for Carlton to beat GWS at Marvel, and $2.50 for Ess to beat CWD, I get 65% chance of them both missing out, and 35% of one getting in.

B. The next group is the 4 games involving WB, Geel and StK. Geel play both the Saints and Dogs. These 16 possible combination of results comes down to none (if Geel beat Saints and lose to WB, Eagles beat the dogs, and Bris beat Saints only), one or two of them making it. Not possible now both Geelong and WB to get in.
Using published odds for Geel over StK of $1.62 and WB at $1.02 to beat WC, and my odds of $1.05 for Bris to beat StK at the Gabba and $1.90 for Geelong to beat WB I get
None in - 1%
One in - 79%
Two in - 21%

C. Syd vs Mel is a group all by itself. I'll put Syd at $2.50 to win that one.

So with 2 possible outcomes from group A, 3 from group B and 2 from group C, there's 2 x 3 x 2 =12 possibilities.

None in from all groups is a pretty slim but non-zero probability - comes out to 0.21% chance by my maths. That makes us 6th.
One in from one group only puts us in 7th, which came out at about 31%.
2 from B and none from the others; or one from both of any two groups puts us 8th, about a 45% chance. That's a 76% chance of making it.
All other combos have us 9th or 10th.

Remember, of course, all percentage chances above assume Crows win out, and need to be reduced by the % chance of Adelaide winning the next 2 to get overall probabilities.

Any peer review of my methodology from fellow geeks welcome.

 

[Gtowncrow]

I couldn't see the Cats beating the dogs if they go down to the Saints, Their season would be over and the que would probably go in the rack along with their best players a week early.

There's a chance it might be 35 year old Hawkins last game as I don't think there's been any announcement yet and out of contract. I feel the locals are made of tougher stuff than to see him off with a whimper.

 

[BRL121]

OK, so we can't get ahead of Carlton now. But clearly we need to beat Syd and WC to get 12 wins. Because I get off playing with probabilities, here goes. The following assumes we win out, and considers who can finish in front of us (by getting to 12.5 or 13 wins noting our superior percentage over WB, Ess and GWS). Further draws are not considered - if that happens I need to start all over again. I've built a spreadsheet where I can enter odds for each game to calculate probabilities. As results pan out I can update that game likelihood to 100%.

As I type there are SB odds for next week, but not R24.

There are 8 other games that matter. That would make 256 possibilities. However, we can isolate them into 3 independent groups each with minimal outcomes, and combine those outcomes.

A. The first group is GWS vs Ess, GWS vs Carl, and Ess vs Collingwood. This has 8 combinations with 2 possible outcomes: one or none of GWS and Ess finish in front. GWS win both or Ess win both puts 1 of them ahead, the other 4 combos both miss out.
Using published odds of $1.38 for GWS to beat Ess, and $1.50 for Carlton to beat GWS at Marvel, and $2.50 for Ess to beat CWD, I get 65% chance of them both missing out, and 35% of one getting in.

B. The next group is the 4 games involving WB, Geel and StK. Geel play both the Saints and Dogs. These 16 possible combination of results comes down to none (if Geel beat Saints and lose to WB, Eagles beat the dogs, and Bris beat Saints only), one or two of them making it. Not possible now both Geelong and WB to get in.
Using published odds for Geel over StK of $1.62 and WB at $1.02 to beat WC, and my odds of $1.05 for Bris to beat StK at the Gabba and $1.90 for Geelong to beat WB I get
None in - 1%
One in - 79%
Two in - 21%

C. Syd vs Mel is a group all by itself. I'll put Syd at $2.50 to win that one.

So with 2 possible outcomes from group A, 3 from group B and 2 from group C, there's 2 x 3 x 2 =12 possibilities.

None in from all groups is a pretty slim but non-zero probability - comes out to 0.21% chance by my maths. That makes us 6th.
One in from one group only puts us in 7th, which came out at about 31%.
2 from B and none from the others; or one from both of any two groups puts us 8th, about a 45% chance. That's a 76% chance of making it.
All other combos have us 9th or 10th.

Remember, of course, all percentage chances above assume Crows win out, and need to be reduced by the % chance of Adelaide winning the next 2 to get overall probabilities.

Any peer review of my methodology from fellow geeks welcome.

The betting on Fox Footy has us at $2.25 to make the 8.