Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[PoholkMe10]

Think this covers everything. Ideal results next week are Geelong beat Saints and Essendon beat GWS. If we beat Sydney rd 24 will be an absolute belter of a round.

Scenario 1
Rd 23: St Kilda beat Geelong

Then Rd 24 we need two of;
Sydney lose to Melbourne (SCG)
WB lose to Geelong (GMHBA)
GWS lose to Carlton (Marvel) / Essendon Lose to Collingwood (MCG) (depending on who wins GWS vs Essendon Rd23)

Scenario 2
Rd 23: Geelong beat St Kilda

Then Rd 24 we need two of;
Sydney lose to Melbourne (Sydney)
St Kilda lose to Brisbane (Gabba)
GWS lose to Carlton (Marvel) / Essendon Lose to Collingwood (MCG) (depending on who wins GWS vs Essendon Rd23)

 

[Rank]

There's a chance it might be 35 year old Hawkins last game as I don't think there's been any announcement yet and out of contract. I feel the locals are made of tougher stuff than to see him off with a whimper.

I'd still rather Geelong playing for a finals spot if we were relying on them winning

 

[NSolis]

OK, so we can't get ahead of Carlton now. But clearly we need to beat Syd and WC to get 12 wins. Because I get off playing with probabilities, here goes. The following assumes we win out, and considers who can finish in front of us (by getting to 12.5 or 13 wins noting our superior percentage over WB, Ess and GWS). Further draws are not considered - if that happens I need to start all over again. I've built a spreadsheet where I can enter odds for each game to calculate probabilities. As results pan out I can update that game likelihood to 100%.

As I type there are SB odds for next week, but not R24.

There are 8 other games that matter. That would make 256 possibilities. However, we can isolate them into 3 independent groups each with minimal outcomes, and combine those outcomes.

A. The first group is GWS vs Ess, GWS vs Carl, and Ess vs Collingwood. This has 8 combinations with 2 possible outcomes: one or none of GWS and Ess finish in front. GWS win both or Ess win both puts 1 of them ahead, the other 4 combos both miss out.
Using published odds of $1.38 for GWS to beat Ess, and $1.50 for Carlton to beat GWS at Marvel, and $2.50 for Ess to beat CWD, I get 65% chance of them both missing out, and 35% of one getting in.

B. The next group is the 4 games involving WB, Geel and StK. Geel play both the Saints and Dogs. These 16 possible combination of results comes down to none (if Geel beat Saints and lose to WB, Eagles beat the dogs, and Bris beat Saints only), one or two of them making it. Not possible now both Geelong and WB to get in.
Using published odds for Geel over StK of $1.62 and WB at $1.02 to beat WC, and my odds of $1.05 for Bris to beat StK at the Gabba and $1.90 for Geelong to beat WB I get
None in - 1%
One in - 79%
Two in - 21%

C. Syd vs Mel is a group all by itself. I'll put Syd at $2.50 to win that one.

So with 2 possible outcomes from group A, 3 from group B and 2 from group C, there's 2 x 3 x 2 =12 possibilities.

None in from all groups is a pretty slim but non-zero probability - comes out to 0.21% chance by my maths. That makes us 6th.
One in from one group only puts us in 7th, which came out at about 31%.
2 from B and none from the others; or one from both of any two groups puts us 8th, about a 45% chance. That's a 76% chance of making it.
All other combos have us 9th or 10th.

Remember, of course, all percentage chances above assume Crows win out, and need to be reduced by the % chance of Adelaide winning the next 2 to get overall probabilities.

Any peer review of my methodology from fellow geeks welcome.

76% looks about right to me. What I think a lot of people have been missing in thinking we had little to no chance of making the finals after the Brisbane loss (I saw people saying it was no chance, 5% chance, things like that) is that a lot of the teams in competition with us play each other. We also play one of them obviously. This means we are certain to make up a fair bit of ground over the next two weeks if we win both games, which pushes the chance of us missing out from 12-11 with best percentage down to a moderately improbable outcome.

So for instance if St. Kilda beat Geelong next week that's good because it basically rules Geelong out, but if Geelong win that's also not too bad as St. Kilda will have to beat Brisbane the following week to finish ahead of us. Similar situation for the Geelong vs WB and GWS vs Essendon games, all of which are likely to rule out the losing side.

At this stage to miss out from 12-11 we'd need some actual upsets to occur. Some combos that would cause us to finish 9th include:

• GWS beats Essendon and Carlton, St. Kilda beats Brisbane
• Essendon beats GWS and Collingwood, St, Kilda beats Brisbane
• GWS beats Essendon and Carlton, Geelong loses to both St. Kilda and WB

It's far from impossible but would take multiple results to flow against us.

 

[NSolis]

On the plus side for BigFooty pessimists, it is still possible for us to finish 15th if things go badly enough. Just need Freo and Gold Coast to win out while Richmond pick up a game. We'll ruin it if we beat West Coast though.

 

[rabidcrow]

So which of the next 2 eminently winnable games, that we will start clear favourites in, will we lose to miss finals?

This whole season has been stained by inexplicable losses that have undone our progress.

It’s almost giving off a 2015 smell.

Sydney - they have won 3 out of 4 at Adelaide Oval and are in good form. Surely we don’t lose to West Coast


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[rabidcrow]

There's a chance it might be 35 year old Hawkins last game as I don't think there's been any announcement yet and out of contract. I feel the locals are made of tougher stuff than to see him off with a whimper.

Hawkins plays on. Top 6 in goal kickers this year. Reckon he goes around 1 more


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[crowholder]

Think this covers everything. Ideal results next week are Geelong beat Saints and Essendon beat GWS. If we beat Sydney rd 24 will be an absolute belter of a round.

Scenario 1
Rd 23: St Kilda beat Geelong

Then Rd 24 we need two of;
Sydney lose to Melbourne (SCG)
WB lose to Geelong (GMHBA)
GWS lose to Carlton (Marvel) / Essendon Lose to Collingwood (MCG) (depending on who wins GWS vs Essendon Rd23)

Scenario 2
Rd 23: Geelong beat St Kilda

Then Rd 24 we need two of;
Sydney lose to Melbourne (Sydney)
St Kilda lose to Brisbane (Gabba)
GWS lose to Carlton (Marvel) / Essendon Lose to Collingwood (MCG) (depending on who wins GWS vs Essendon Rd23)

Good, although you need a scenario 3 whereby St Kilda and Geelong tie. It may be like scenario 1 but with percentage coming into play, due to Geelong having a better percentage at the moment

 

[119others]

Good, although you need a scenario 3 whereby St Kilda and Geelong tie. It may be like scenario 1 but with percentage coming into play, due to Geelong having a better percentage at the moment

Or Dons vs GWS drawing..our % with Cats should be made up in the final round

 

[pjcrows]

Relying on the betting odds to determine future results for a finals path is fraught with danger. Look at the last three weeks

 

[kirky]

Sydney - they have won 3 out of 4 at Adelaide Oval and are in good form. Surely we don’t lose to West Coast


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The last two tho have been by less than a kick and the Crows previous loss to that was nearly 10 years ago. And lets not forget, there is no Buddy Franklin this time.

For some inexplicable reason, we only seem to play Sydney once a year in the minor round. Another quirk of the fixture. The only time we have played them twice in a season is when we also meet in a final (2016 and 2012). The last time we played them twice in a minor round season was way back in 2005!

The positive about this week’s game is it is here in Adelaide. And another factor, it is at night (Sydney rarely play night footy). We lose, we don’t deserve finals, there are no excuses.

 

[Crow till I die]

Relying on the betting odds to determine future results for a finals path is fraught with danger. Look at the last three weeks

I hate to be that guy, but in a weeks time i can see a scenario where we do our job and beat sydney yet all the other results we need to go for us don't and we are stuffed. As soon as you are relying on others...as marko from Tropoje says...'good luck'

 

[kirky]

If Brisbane do lose to Collingwood then would love Freo to knock off Port in Perth. Freo don’t have a first round pick (Melbourne have it) so where they finish is irrelevant. It also ensures that both Brisbane and Melbourne are fighting for second spot and a home final given the % difference is minimal between them.

When was the last time we actually cared about the last couple of rounds? 2017.

So much to play out. Exciting times.

 

[Dangarman]

I hate to be that guy, but in a weeks time i can see a scenario where we do our job and beat sydney yet all the other results we need to go for us don't and we are stuffed. As soon as you are relying on others...as marko from Tropoje says...'good luck'

So you're expecting something like the Dogs to beat WC by 150 points and us beating them by just under a goal and we miss out by 0.1%?

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

If a lifetime of watching footy has taught me two things:
1. Having to rely on other results never ends well
2. The Crows in ‘must-win’ games are capable of the intolerable. Let alone two ‘must-win’ games in a row

 

[Geoffa32]

I am generally not superstitious, but this club has a curse around the number 6.

This year marks 6 years without Finals. Our clubs worst period 2018 to 2023.


Therefore we won't make it. This is just a tease to torment us. Will slip out on the last Sunday, GWS to beat a resting Carlton.


But will be big improvesrs next year and beyond.

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Dangarman]

The betting on Fox Footy has us at $2.25 to make the 8.

Better than evens, if I was a betting man I'd take that.

 

[Dangerousfield]

Have just watched the Swans-GC game. I think we have them well covered, at AO particularly. Swans will fall out as they have Melbourne in the last game

Expect us to go win/win and combined with a good %, that should be enough to see us make finals. We'd need a number of other contenders results to go wrong for us to miss out.

 

[Scorpus]

We will definitely beat West Coast, they will be gasping for the finish line and completely roll over.

Sydney though is a very tough match against a team that's performing similarly to us, which this year we've struggled badly against

 

[relapse]

This year, like last year are exactly the reason why the AFL needs a wildcard round.

 

[footy4ever]

I hate to be that guy, but in a weeks time i can see a scenario where we do our job and beat sydney yet all the other results we need to go for us don't and we are stuffed. As soon as you are relying on others...as marko from Tropoje says...'good luck'

I also hate to be that guy ...but my nightmare sees us beating Sydney and then sh1tting the bed against West Coast when all of their players play out of their skin to farewell their hero/s, and worse, I'll actually be there with this thought destroying my brain all through the game, until we're 8 goals ahead with 5 only minutes to play.

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Provided we win the last two games, we’re all gonna be having heart attacks on Sunday 27th when Sydney play Melbourne and Carlton play GWS.

In 99% of scenarios we will need one of those results to go our way.

 

[Crows I Am]

I hate to be that guy, but in a weeks time i can see a scenario where we do our job and beat sydney yet all the other results we need to go for us don't and we are stuffed. As soon as you are relying on others...as marko from Tropoje says...'good luck'

I have done the ladder predictor quite a few times, and if we beat Sydney we should make it. I tried multiple different scenarios and each one we still finished inside the top 8.

 

[footy4ever]

Provided we win the last two games, we’re all gonna be having heart attacks on Sunday 27th when Sydney play Melbourne and Carlton play GWS.

In 99% of scenarios we will need one of those results to go our way.

I don't like it. Both Melbourne and Carlton are capable of losing to Half reasonable teams.

 

[119others]

From Herald Sun - not sure if already posted

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-run-home-where-your-team-will-finish-as-finals-race-heats-up/news-story/2733d170a4e08e8b9053a5a724ae2115

 

[119others]