Your Club in 2012, according to BigFooty

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Final Siren said:
The West Coast Eagles Snapshot

This one is funny mostly for the Respect Ladder. But here is the overall picture. Click for large version.
GCfbJ.png

So, if we look at who rates the Eagles most highly, it's supporters of:

  1. West Coast
  2. Gold Coast
  3. St Kilda
  4. Western Bulldogs
  5. Adelaide
  6. Collingwood
  7. Richmond
  8. Brisbane
  9. Port Adelaide
  10. Geelong
  11. Greater Western Sydney
  12. Sydney
  13. North Melbourne
  14. Essendon
  15. Hawthorn
  16. Melbourne
  17. Carlton
  18. Fremantle
The last two places are interesting. You might have thought Carlton fans would rate West Coast after that epic semi-final last year. But no!

The 2012 ladder according to West Coast fans is so close to the overall BigFooty one that I'm not even going to post it. It's exactly the same, only with West Coast taking 4th ahead of Carlton.

Top 4 prospects: 25.8%, according to BigFooty. 62.1%, according to West Coast supporters. 7.1%, according to Carlton supporters.

Flag chances: 2.5%, says BigFooty. 17.2%, say Eagles fans.

Finals chances: 93.8%.
Click to expand...

Ha. Fremantle.
 
Final Siren said:
Sorry, took a while to get to this one. But I have time to squeeze it in before heading off to the 'G...

The Gold Coast 2012 Snapshot

Here's the overview. Click for large version.

ZRlAu.png


BigFooty expects improvement from Gold Coast, but not much. The median tip is 16th, beating out GWS and Port Adelaide. Opinions were very consistent on this, with more than half of all ladders putting the Suns either 15th or 16th.

Gold Coast supporters are more optimistic, tipping around 12th - 15th, and GWS supporters think the Suns are getting ready to push for finals.

Aside from this, there's very little variation between the supporter groups. Nevertheless, here's the Respect Ladder! The Coasters are most rated by supporters of:

  1. Greater Western Sydney
  2. Gold Coast
  3. Adelaide
  4. Sydney
  5. St Kilda
  6. Fremantle
  7. North Melbourne
  8. West Coast
  9. Carlton
  10. Port Adelaide
  11. Essendon
  12. Hawthorn
  13. Melbourne
  14. Collingwood
  15. Richmond
  16. Brisbane
  17. Western Bulldogs
  18. Geelong
I think one thing we've established via this research is that Geelong supporters never forget and never forgive.

Finals chances: 0.8%. The Suns are tipped to make finals by two GWS and 1 GC fan. Although only just (7th/8th). Otherwise it would be unrealistic.

Top 4/flag chances: 0%/0%.
Click to expand...
That's some pr0n like box and whisker right there. Well done.
 

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Call Me Cake said:
Has there been an Essendon one yet?

Great and fun read, FS. Appreciate the work. :thumbsu:

EDIT: nvm, found it! :cool:
Click to expand...
You know there's nothing more annoying than finding someone on a forum with the same question as you, and then they post, "Never mind, I solved it." You have to say how!

Essendon is here. All the team snapshots are linked from the top of the first post.

We're due for a refresher anyway. For team snapshopts, the dark blue line stretches from the best to the worst that anyone ranked this team. The light blue box contains the middle 50% of ranks; i.e. what you're left with after you throw out the most optimistic 25% and the most pessimistic 25%. The purple line marks the median rank, i.e. the middle or "typical" rank.

For example (click image for larger version):


The highest anyone on BigFooty tipped the Bombers was 2nd. The lowest was 18th, and I hope that guy is feeling pretty silly right now. The median rank was 9th. Anyone who tipped higher than 7th was in the most optimistic 25%.

Looking specifically at Bomber fans, not one of them tipped higher than 4th. There'd be a few revising their expectations now.
 
Mecha said:
He had Brissy and Melb to make top 4. Surely a troll :cool:
Click to expand...
I sometimes had my suspicions that people's ladders weren't completely serious, but I left them all in unless they explicitly declared they were jokes. And I think one guy said he made his with a random number generator, so I ignored that, too. Everything else, though, I gave the benefit of the doubt.

Looking back, four people (1.1%) had Melbourne top 4, and 43 people (12%) had them top 8. Brisbane were top 4 picks for two people (0.6%) and top 8 picks for 16 (4.5%).

At the end of the year, I'd like to go back and figure out which of those 357 ladders was the very best -- it would be interesting to see how close they got.

Also, which team's supporters made the best predictions on average.
 
dunno bout others but I can see Essendon slipping out of the top 4 by seasons end.

I see them losing to Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton with very tough matches against Adelaide over at AAMI & again v Collingwood in the final match of the year.

Probably get laughed at but Fremantle in 3 weeks time would have got their shit together and I reckon the Cats will have a few important blokes back with speed along with a bit of inside knowledge of our own (Knights), the Blues will be dying to replay the game that 'de-railed' their season and Hawthorn have always had their measure and should be in better shape by then.
Fremantle & Carlton games could decide their top 4 aspirations.
 
AlibiMonday said:
Final Siren, what tools do you use to calculate and graph all of this? I'm currently studying statistics (1st year), but we're solely studying calculus and algebra.
Click to expand...
I just use a spreadsheet--LibreOffice Calc is my choice, but Excel would be just as good. I use handy built-in functions like QUARTILE, COUNTIF, RANK, etc.

The graphs are bog standard candlestick or box-and-whisker charts... I had to force Calc into producing them, because its graphing tool is not the best.
 
footscore said:
dunno bout others but I can see Essendon slipping out of the top 4 by seasons end.

I see them losing to Fremantle, Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton with very tough matches against Adelaide over at AAMI & again v Collingwood in the final match of the year.
Click to expand...
We've beaten all of those sides in the last few years, and we're a better outfit now. We probably won't win them all, but we're a decent shot.
 
Final Siren said:
The Adelaide 2012 Snapshot

Here is the overview. Click for large version.

Ujoct.png


Finals chances: 11.8%. According to Crow fans, it's 35.3%.

Top 4 chances: 0.0%. Not even a Crow fan dared to dream this one. No tips higher than 5th.

Flag chances: 0.0%.
Click to expand...

Coming up to their bye in round 11, the Crows are 8-2, solidly placed in the top 4 and they have a fairly good draw for the remainder of the season.

I'd think that right now this is possibly the team with the largest difference between actual performance and BigFooty posters' expectations.
 

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imadodgyumpire said:
If Carlton, somehow, end up fourth, the way we've been going, we should romp in the GF. But...
Click to expand...


seems unlikely but you never know. I think you guys beat Hawthorn but will struggle to beat West Coast and Collingwood will avenge a little payback of their own for the RD3 romping they received.

but two losses in the next 3 weeks would essentially have you 3 games out of the top 4 and the percentage will likely drop to below 110% but after a month's time....things could again swing back in Carlton's favor
 
Provost said:
Fantastic information here, thank you so much for your work.

Any chance of a Swans Snapshot? I'd think that most supporters would of placed them in the bottom half of the top 8 including Swans supporters themselves, but I'm sure WCE supporters have them outside the top 8 :D
Click to expand...

Why are you "sure WCE supporters have them (Sydney) outside the top 8?" It's seems that some Sydney fans have a chip on their shoulder regarding West Coast, not vice versa. If there's a rivalry between Sydney and West Coast, from what I've read from WC supporters is that it's respectful, not one carrying a grudge.
 
tesseract said:
Why are you "sure WCE supporters have them (Sydney) outside the top 8?" It's seems that some Sydney fans have a chip on their shoulder regarding West Coast, not vice versa. If there's a rivalry between Sydney and West Coast, from what I've read from WC supporters is that it's respectful, not one carrying a grudge.
Click to expand...

Well said Tesseract, I have nothing but respect for Sydney Swans.
I definately think they will be in top 8.

Provost what makes you think what you said ?
 
SaintsSeptember said:
Here's a case now.

You could ask a Richmond supporter if its an automatic thing that just happens or not.
Click to expand...
First of all they are completely different cases, secondly i was objecting to the use of delusional. Delusion would be all North supporters expecting top two, top eight is simply optimism.
 
i think it will be hard for us to make 1st - 3rd this year, but still remain hopeful

Final Siren said:
Updated 29 March 2012! Now with 357 ladders, and team snapshots for North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast, Melbourne, Carlton, GWS, Collingwood, Hawthorn, St. Kilda, Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Essendon, and Gold Coast.

Every year, people try to predict the ladder for the following year. Here is the thread for 2012:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=878281 (Part 1)
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=894794 (Part 2)

I have run these ladders through a statistical analysis, so now I can bring you...

THE CONSOLIDATED BIGFOOTY 2012 LADDER

Here's what you get if you combine the 300 ladders from that thread into one:

  1. Hawthorn
  2. Collingwood
  3. Geelong
  4. Carlton
  5. West Coast
  6. Fremantle
  7. Sydney
  8. North Melbourne
  9. Essendon
  10. St. Kilda
  11. Richmond
  12. Melbourne
  13. Adelaide
  14. Western Bulldogs
  15. Brisbane
  16. Gold Coast
  17. Port Adelaide
  18. Greater Western Sydney
Surest Bets
These teams exhibit the smallest statistical variation in predictions, which means people agreed most often about where they are likely to finish:

  1. Greater Western Sydney (average prediction: 17th - 18th)
  2. Hawthorn (1st - 3rd)
  3. Port Adelaide (15th - 18th)
  4. Collingwood (1st - 4th)
  5. Gold Coast (14th - 17th)
  6. Carlton (2nd - 5th)
  7. West Coast (4th - 7th)
  8. Geelong (2nd - 5th)
  9. Western Bulldogs (11th - 16th)

Unknown Quantities
These teams exhibit large statistical variations in their predicted finishing position, meaning there is a lot of disagreement about how they will go in 2012:

  1. St. Kilda (average prediction: 7th - 14th)
  2. Fremantle (4th - 9th)
  3. Essendon (7th - 12th)
  4. Adelaide (10th - 15th)
  5. Melbourne (9th - 14th)
  6. Richmond (8th - 13th)
  7. Sydney (5th - 10th)
  8. Brisbane (11th - 16th)
  9. North Melbourne (6th - 11th)

Do Supporters Over-Rate Their Own Team?
Yes! Supporters of all 18 teams on average predict their own team to finish higher than the rest of BigFooty does.

Who Are The Most Optimistic/Delusional?
We don't actually know yet where teams will finish on the ladder in 2012, so a team's supporters may be right when they predict that their team is better than everyone thinks. But not everyone can be right! So someone must be deluding themselves.

Ranked from most disproportionately optimistic supporters to most disproportionately pessimistic (based on number of standard deviations away from the average):

  1. Greater Western Sydney
  2. Gold Coast
  3. Port Adelaide
  4. North Melbourne
  5. St. Kilda
  6. Melbourne
  7. Sydney
  8. Richmond
  9. Western Bulldogs
  10. Adelaide
  11. Fremantle
  12. Essendon
  13. Hawthorn
  14. Collingwood
  15. West Coast
  16. Geelong
  17. Brisbane
  18. Carlton
Note that even Carlton & Brisbane supporters expect their team to do better than in 2012 than BigFooty does. But Carlton & Brisbane supporters only expect their team to finish about half a rung higher on average than the rest of BigFooty, which is very modest, while Port Adelaide supporters expect to finish two rungs higher, and Greater Western Sydney supporters are tipping three rungs higher than everyone else.


(Stats talk: this rank is actually derived from the difference in average ladder position as measured by standard deviations. For example, St. Kilda's average rank is 10.5 with a very high standard deviation of 3.36, because people have ranked it all over the place. St. Kilda supporters rank themselves 6.4 on average, a whole four rungs higher than BigFooty. Greater Western Sydney supporters rank themselves only three rungs better (average ranking of 14.8 vs 17.8), but because BigFooty is near-unanimous that they're going to finish bottom, that's against a much lower standard deviation of 1.02. GWS are therefore 3.0 standard deviations more optimistic about themselves while St. Kilda are only 1.2 standard deviations more optimistic.)

Edit: Updated 6-Dec-11. Increased data sample from 137 to 300 ladders. Ladder differences: Richmond & St Kilda swap places at 10th & 11th. Brisbane & Western Bulldogs swap places at 14th & 15th.
Click to expand...

Final Siren said:
Updated 29 March 2012! Now with 357 ladders, and team snapshots for North Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast, Melbourne, Carlton, GWS, Collingwood, Hawthorn, St. Kilda, Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Essendon, and Gold Coast.

Every year, people try to predict the ladder for the following year. Here is the thread for 2012:

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=878281 (Part 1)
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=894794 (Part 2)

I have run these ladders through a statistical analysis, so now I can bring you...

THE CONSOLIDATED BIGFOOTY 2012 LADDER

Here's what you get if you combine the 300 ladders from that thread into one:

  1. Hawthorn
  2. Collingwood
  3. Geelong
  4. Carlton
  5. West Coast
  6. Fremantle
  7. Sydney
  8. North Melbourne
  9. Essendon
  10. St. Kilda
  11. Richmond
  12. Melbourne
  13. Adelaide
  14. Western Bulldogs
  15. Brisbane
  16. Gold Coast
  17. Port Adelaide
  18. Greater Western Sydney
Surest Bets
These teams exhibit the smallest statistical variation in predictions, which means people agreed most often about where they are likely to finish:

  1. Greater Western Sydney (average prediction: 17th - 18th)
  2. Hawthorn (1st - 3rd)
  3. Port Adelaide (15th - 18th)
  4. Collingwood (1st - 4th)
  5. Gold Coast (14th - 17th)
  6. Carlton (2nd - 5th)
  7. West Coast (4th - 7th)
  8. Geelong (2nd - 5th)
  9. Western Bulldogs (11th - 16th)

Unknown Quantities
These teams exhibit large statistical variations in their predicted finishing position, meaning there is a lot of disagreement about how they will go in 2012:

  1. St. Kilda (average prediction: 7th - 14th)
  2. Fremantle (4th - 9th)
  3. Essendon (7th - 12th)
  4. Adelaide (10th - 15th)
  5. Melbourne (9th - 14th)
  6. Richmond (8th - 13th)
  7. Sydney (5th - 10th)
  8. Brisbane (11th - 16th)
  9. North Melbourne (6th - 11th)

Do Supporters Over-Rate Their Own Team?
Yes! Supporters of all 18 teams on average predict their own team to finish higher than the rest of BigFooty does.

Who Are The Most Optimistic/Delusional?
We don't actually know yet where teams will finish on the ladder in 2012, so a team's supporters may be right when they predict that their team is better than everyone thinks. But not everyone can be right! So someone must be deluding themselves.

Ranked from most disproportionately optimistic supporters to most disproportionately pessimistic (based on number of standard deviations away from the average):

  1. Greater Western Sydney
  2. Gold Coast
  3. Port Adelaide
  4. North Melbourne
  5. St. Kilda
  6. Melbourne
  7. Sydney
  8. Richmond
  9. Western Bulldogs
  10. Adelaide
  11. Fremantle
  12. Essendon
  13. Hawthorn
  14. Collingwood
  15. West Coast
  16. Geelong
  17. Brisbane
  18. Carlton
Note that even Carlton & Brisbane supporters expect their team to do better than in 2012 than BigFooty does. But Carlton & Brisbane supporters only expect their team to finish about half a rung higher on average than the rest of BigFooty, which is very modest, while Port Adelaide supporters expect to finish two rungs higher, and Greater Western Sydney supporters are tipping three rungs higher than everyone else.


(Stats talk: this rank is actually derived from the difference in average ladder position as measured by standard deviations. For example, St. Kilda's average rank is 10.5 with a very high standard deviation of 3.36, because people have ranked it all over the place. St. Kilda supporters rank themselves 6.4 on average, a whole four rungs higher than BigFooty. Greater Western Sydney supporters rank themselves only three rungs better (average ranking of 14.8 vs 17.8), but because BigFooty is near-unanimous that they're going to finish bottom, that's against a much lower standard deviation of 1.02. GWS are therefore 3.0 standard deviations more optimistic about themselves while St. Kilda are only 1.2 standard deviations more optimistic.)

Edit: Updated 6-Dec-11. Increased data sample from 137 to 300 ladders. Ladder differences: Richmond & St Kilda swap places at 10th & 11th. Brisbane & Western Bulldogs swap places at 14th & 15th.
Click to expand...
 

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Your Club in 2012, according to BigFooty

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