Carbine Chaos
See My Chess
- Apr 1, 2009
- 65,809
- 100,152
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Perth FC, Everton, Delhi
Things seem bleak, friends. But hear me out. Not all is lost!
According to the predictor above, we are a 1% chance of avoiding a loss here. Or a 74 point loss at least - I'm no Mr. Squiggle, or anything. But I think if we delve a little deeper into the likely factors at play, things seem a lot more hopeful for our band of savage warriors. Let's begin...
FACTOR 1 - MOTIVATION
According to Beedie and Foad (2009), psychological variables such as motivation play a ‘significant role in driving both positive and negative outcomes’ on the sporting field. So, put yourself in the shoes of a Geelong player this weekend. Top spot is already sewn up, there’s every chance that going in hard may result in injury, especially after our approach against Fremantle last week. Geelong would have tuned in to watch that on Access 31 Victoria, and they’ll know what’s coming. So, I think it’s only fair that we make the relevant adjustment to the predicted outcome above.
FACTOR 2 - THE MILESTONE MILLSTONE
The ‘Milestone Game Curse’ is real, especially in the AFL. See the below articles for several recent examples of teams absolutely spudding it up when a teammate’s celebratory game gets underway.
West Coast apologise to Hurn for loss in his 300th
Heppell joins long list of unlucky Bombers
Kane Cornes 300th game loss to Richmond
With Patrick Dangerfield playing his 300th game this weekend, Geelong will similarly feel the same amount of pressure to get him over the line with a well-deserved victory. Given history suggests this is unlikely to happen, let’s make some further adjustments to the predicted outcome.
FACTOR 3 - LIKELY RESTINGS
Straight from the Ross Lyon handbook, we can expect Geelong to rest any of their players with even the slightest niggle this weekend. You know the drill. Cameron will feel a twinge on Tuesday. Hawkins will have a prime milker require his complete and udder attention come the weekend. Selwood will be conveniently called away to an intervention for Troy, to make him feel important again. I'm expecting Geelong may tap into our tops up this weekend, and we'll finally have that Black vs Clark showdown we've been waiting for all year. Adjust!
FACTOR 4 - RETURNING EAGLES
We focus above on Geelong’s side, but what about ours? Kelly returns to the fortress at which he has played his best footy. Rioli may be back, and as hungry as ever. Culley will tuck the elbow away, and instead feast on a withering old Geelong midfield. It's hard to see how our fresh legs, primed and ready from Beagles duty, can't run all over the older Geelong players. Adjust further please.
FACTOR 5 - COINCIDENCE? I THINK NOT
Did you know that 100 years ago, in the final round of 1922, Geelong lost at Lake Oval to South Melbourne by 78 points? The crowd was 3000 people, which coincidentally is exactly the amount you can win if you put $200 on the Eagles this weekend. Why is this important? Well, last week Josh Kennedy kicked 8 goals. If you multiply his playing number (17) by 8, you get 136 – only 64 less than 200. And, in 1964, Geelong also lost in the final round of the season, this time to St. Kilda at Junction Oval by – you guessed it – 12 points. Who wears 12 for the Eagles? Kennedy’s heir apparent, Oscar Allen. How many goals has he kicked in his career thus far? 66.
Oh. My. God.
Geelong lost by 78 points in the final round 100 years ago. Allen has kicked 66 goals. He wears the number 12. 78 minus 66 is 12. Therefore, logic dictates that...
So come on campaigners - I love you all, let's fire up and Lee Spurr the boys on to a historic third victory for the season, sending the Catters crashing all the way down to 1st place by only a single game and percentage. Huzzah!
According to the predictor above, we are a 1% chance of avoiding a loss here. Or a 74 point loss at least - I'm no Mr. Squiggle, or anything. But I think if we delve a little deeper into the likely factors at play, things seem a lot more hopeful for our band of savage warriors. Let's begin...
FACTOR 1 - MOTIVATION
According to Beedie and Foad (2009), psychological variables such as motivation play a ‘significant role in driving both positive and negative outcomes’ on the sporting field. So, put yourself in the shoes of a Geelong player this weekend. Top spot is already sewn up, there’s every chance that going in hard may result in injury, especially after our approach against Fremantle last week. Geelong would have tuned in to watch that on Access 31 Victoria, and they’ll know what’s coming. So, I think it’s only fair that we make the relevant adjustment to the predicted outcome above.
FACTOR 2 - THE MILESTONE MILLSTONE
The ‘Milestone Game Curse’ is real, especially in the AFL. See the below articles for several recent examples of teams absolutely spudding it up when a teammate’s celebratory game gets underway.
West Coast apologise to Hurn for loss in his 300th
Heppell joins long list of unlucky Bombers
Kane Cornes 300th game loss to Richmond
With Patrick Dangerfield playing his 300th game this weekend, Geelong will similarly feel the same amount of pressure to get him over the line with a well-deserved victory. Given history suggests this is unlikely to happen, let’s make some further adjustments to the predicted outcome.
FACTOR 3 - LIKELY RESTINGS
Straight from the Ross Lyon handbook, we can expect Geelong to rest any of their players with even the slightest niggle this weekend. You know the drill. Cameron will feel a twinge on Tuesday. Hawkins will have a prime milker require his complete and udder attention come the weekend. Selwood will be conveniently called away to an intervention for Troy, to make him feel important again. I'm expecting Geelong may tap into our tops up this weekend, and we'll finally have that Black vs Clark showdown we've been waiting for all year. Adjust!
FACTOR 4 - RETURNING EAGLES
We focus above on Geelong’s side, but what about ours? Kelly returns to the fortress at which he has played his best footy. Rioli may be back, and as hungry as ever. Culley will tuck the elbow away, and instead feast on a withering old Geelong midfield. It's hard to see how our fresh legs, primed and ready from Beagles duty, can't run all over the older Geelong players. Adjust further please.
FACTOR 5 - COINCIDENCE? I THINK NOT
Did you know that 100 years ago, in the final round of 1922, Geelong lost at Lake Oval to South Melbourne by 78 points? The crowd was 3000 people, which coincidentally is exactly the amount you can win if you put $200 on the Eagles this weekend. Why is this important? Well, last week Josh Kennedy kicked 8 goals. If you multiply his playing number (17) by 8, you get 136 – only 64 less than 200. And, in 1964, Geelong also lost in the final round of the season, this time to St. Kilda at Junction Oval by – you guessed it – 12 points. Who wears 12 for the Eagles? Kennedy’s heir apparent, Oscar Allen. How many goals has he kicked in his career thus far? 66.
Oh. My. God.
Geelong lost by 78 points in the final round 100 years ago. Allen has kicked 66 goals. He wears the number 12. 78 minus 66 is 12. Therefore, logic dictates that...
So come on campaigners - I love you all, let's fire up and Lee Spurr the boys on to a historic third victory for the season, sending the Catters crashing all the way down to 1st place by only a single game and percentage. Huzzah!
