Unofficial Preview Changes & Pre-match Discussion - Qualifying Final vs. Geelong, Sat 03/09, 4:35pm MCG

[Pistol Night]

That really is awful, given how dominant they have been over the last decade.

Its mental now. And we should be actively bringing it up in the media all week

 

[LuckyLee]

Theres zero chance its healed already if it was a proper strain

More likely it was a ruse and they were just managing him to make sure he’s cherry-ripe to kick his usual 4-6 goals against us.


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[legendstatus]

I saw a stat that Cats last 7 Qualifying finals they have only won 1 of them? that’ll have to play in “Scott no mates” mind?


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[NMBB]

1-8 in the first week. That gotta play on their minds

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

I saw a stat that Cats last 7 Qualifying finals they have only won 1 of them? that’ll have to play in “Scott no mates” mind?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

They've only won 1 since they wont the flag I believe

By 2 points...because Isaac Smith missed a shot (he'd normally get) after the siren

So yeah, their only issue this weekend will be mental. Not injury/gameplan/match ups etc. Hopefully we can jump them like we did in 2019

 

[Jafo]

I remember this game.

Repeat this for Saturday please-

 

[Albert Parker]

‘How ready are you?’ AFL legend frustrated as big finals problem that hurts top teams returns

‘How ready are you?’ AFL legend frustrated as big finals problem that hurts top teams returns

www.foxsports.com.au

I agree with Matthews. Why bring in a pre-finals bye because one coach (Ross the boss) chose to rest players in a meaningless game? So typical of the AFL to be reactive.

I think that it has meant that there is a more level playing field and it is not simply the teams who finish top 4 who can win the premiership now.
Much as I like having football to attend/watch, I think it is a sensible initiative by the AFL in terms of levelling the playing field and competition integrity (players like Tom Papley who were concussed can now be available for the first week of the finals).

 

[Jafo]

Bucks and Bacher Houli to present Norm Smith and Premiership cup to the winning team this year.

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

Bucks and Bacher Houli to present Norm Smith and Premiership cup to the winning team this year.

Why Houli?


I always thought they pick 2 past players from the participating teams?

 

[Cousin of Daicos]

More likely it was a ruse and they were just managing him to make sure he’s cherry-ripe to kick his usual 4-6 goals against us.


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He's not being minded by Madgen this time so I don't expect him to be as dominant.

I think people are forgetting how much stronger our 22 is going into this game vs the last one. Not only that, we had a new coach in his 4th(?) game still bedding down a new gameplan

Despite that, game still should have been over at half time had we kicked straight. Especially when combined with that third quarter.

 

[neilk]

Taylor Adams

3

Taylor Adams

Age

31

Ht

181cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

24.9

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

11.4

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

5.0

5star

D

20.4

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.9

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

18.2

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

is declaring himself fit and ready to go. He just needs to get through training this week.

 

[NMBB]

Taylor Adams is declaring himself fit and ready to go. He just needs to get through training this week.

Hope training includes how to kick to a teammate

 

[sideswipe]

Why Houli?


I always thought they pick 2 past players from the participating teams?

Houli is the "Cup Ambassador" which I think means he will be driving it around town on tour over the next 4 weeks. The two presenters of the cup get selected once the GF teams are known.

 

[Doc1763]

Houli is the "Cup Ambassador" which I think means he will be driving it around town on tour over the next 4 weeks. The two presenters of the cup get selected once the GF teams are known.

Lewis is the cup ambassador

 

[sideswipe]

Lewis is the cup ambassador

Not according to this - unless it is both Lewis and Houli?

Buckley, Tigers premiership star given Grand Final day honours

Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley will present the Norm Smith Medal on Grand Final day, while Bachar Houli is the premiership cup ambassador

www.afl.com.au

 

[Doc1763]

Not according to this - unless it is both Lewis and Houli?

Buckley, Tigers premiership star given Grand Final day honours

Collingwood legend Nathan Buckley will present the Norm Smith Medal on Grand Final day, while Bachar Houli is the premiership cup ambassador

www.afl.com.au

Yes, you are correct, my mistake.

 

[sideswipe]

Yes, you are correct, my mistake.

It's being reported by news services that Lewis is doing it, so you ain't the one making the mistake!

Bombers need open mind on coach: Lewis

Essendon need to open up a wide net for potential AFL coaching candidates, according to Bombers coaching subcommittee member Jordan Lewis.

www.perthnow.com.au

 

[Doc1763]

It's being reported by news services that Lewis is doing it, so you ain't the one making the mistake!

Bombers need open mind on coach: Lewis

Essendon need to open up a wide net for potential AFL coaching candidates, according to Bombers coaching subcommittee member Jordan Lewis.

www.perthnow.com.au

Yes that's where I got it from.

 

[sideswipe]

Yes that's where I got it from.

It's such an important job...

 

[Matrix10]

I saw a stat that Cats last 7 Qualifying finals they have only won 1 of them? that’ll have to play in “Scott no mates” mind?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I see what you did there , very clever , bravo

 

[Heater3923]

Brilliant post, absolutely loved reading it. A really scientific, objective breakdown. Thanks

Thank you both for the kind words

I’ve started watching Cats games today just to see if my “nerd” data analysis actually lines up with the vision.

Only watched 1st half of wce v geelong. No point watching the second half. But I did notice wce scoring shots and opportunities came from repeat entries ins50, pressure and intercepts from lazy kicks.

I don’t think there is much reason to watch Melbourne or Carlton games vs Cats - those teams play a different style to us. Very contested possession heavy. There’s no real point comparing as that style doesn’t seem to trouble the 2022 cats.

Ports 12 point loss may be worth revisiting but it wasn’t on the MCG, so it may not be on point as much.

I think Richmond v Cats is worth revisiting though. As it was the last close win cats really had on the MCG and tigers gamestyle lines up with ours.

Worth noting Dangerfield and Parfit did not play, but then Prestia got poleaxed and Tigers had a ruckman as medi sub. So a few outs by both teams.

I looked at where tigers 13 goal chains started from (Trigger warning - apologies Legend Status there are asterisks ahead and I know you ain’t got time for that)

* 5 x goals started from Richmond’s defensive 50 (either by way of kick in, mark, turnover or stoppage win). Richmond also butchered many chances that were coast to coast from def50

* 5 x goals from intercepts as cats worked it outside their def50 to centre wing

* 2 x goals from repeat inside 50s

* 1 x goal from centre clearance

Cats dominated for 1 and half qtrs just by on contested possession, intercepts, clearance and repeat inside 50s. They really didn’t trouble Richmond much from def50 chains.

Cats got out to about 5-6 goal lead which Richmond pegged back very well by:

• increased pressure across the ground
• tackles and pressure inside 50
• intercepts between the arcs
• efficient ins50 entries
• efficient goal kicking

Interestingly, Richmond only had 6 tackles inside fwd 50. So i wonder how tigers would have gone had they managed 12 or more inside fwd 50 tackles? Nor did either side crack 50 tackles for the game. My key take away is that the cats game-style still gave Richmond enough chances to win.

So back on brand Collingwood, I think the raw season average stats and the vision from the Richmond game suggests our game-plan can undermine Cats game-plan.

With a week off, I expect our pressure game, intercepts and tackling to be at fever pitch. That gives me confidence we will win if we execute fwd50 entries and have high goal kicking efficiently.

Just need to breakeven at stoppage and centre clearance and our defensive pressure and transition from def50 should give us enough opportunity up fwd.

Lastly, we can’t underestimate Geelong. They will make in game adjustments if things aren’t going their way. They have no problem in shifting away from their more conservative press heavy game-plan to a more direct, coast to coast and quick football style when challenged by opponents.

They have a pretty decent intercept game themselves, so they will look to punish us on the turnover if they can. They did this in the 4th vs Tigers and against us in our loss to them.

So if we get up by a few goals late we may need to slow the game down a touch and play it safe round the boundary and lock it up for a few minutes (hopefully in our fwd 50).

As we’ve played so many close ones and we are coached very well I expect, if we get in the position Richmond did in round 15, we will adjust and make sure the Cats shift in game-plan bares no fruit.

Saturday can’t come quick enough for me. Super keen to see this play out



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[manicpie]

Thank you both for the kind words

I’ve started watching Cats games today just to see if my “nerd” data analysis actually lines up with the vision.

Only watched 1st half of wce v geelong. No point watching the second half. But I did notice wce scoring shots and opportunities came from repeat entries ins50, pressure and intercepts from lazy kicks.

I don’t think there is much reason to watch Melbourne or Carlton games vs Cats - those teams play a different style to us. Very contested possession heavy. There’s no real point comparing as that style doesn’t seem to trouble the 2022 cats.

Ports 12 point loss may be worth revisiting but it wasn’t on the MCG, so it may not be on point as much.

I think Richmond v Cats is worth revisiting though. As it was the last close win cats really had on the MCG and tigers gamestyle lines up with ours.

Worth noting Dangerfield and Parfit did not play, but then Prestia got poleaxed and Tigers had a ruckman as medi sub. So a few outs by both teams.

I looked at where tigers 13 goal chains started from (Trigger warning - apologies Legend Status there are asterisks ahead and I know you ain’t got time for that)

* 5 x goals started from Richmond’s defensive 50 (either by way of kick in, mark, turnover or stoppage win). Richmond also butchered many chances that were coast to coast from def50

* 5 x goals from intercepts as cats worked it outside their def50 to centre wing

* 2 x goals from repeat inside 50s

* 1 x goal from centre clearance

Cats dominated for 1 and half qtrs just by on contested possession, intercepts, clearance and repeat inside 50s. They really didn’t trouble Richmond much from def50 chains.

Cats got out to about 5-6 goal lead which Richmond pegged back very well by:

• increased pressure across the ground
• tackles and pressure inside 50
• intercepts between the arcs
• efficient ins50 entries
• efficient goal kicking

Interestingly, Richmond only had 6 tackles inside fwd 50. So i wonder how tigers would have gone had they managed 12 or more inside fwd 50 tackles? Nor did either side crack 50 tackles for the game. My key take away is that the cats game-style still gave Richmond enough chances to win.

So back on brand Collingwood, I think the raw season average stats and the vision from the Richmond game suggests our game-plan can undermine Cats game-plan.

With a week off, I expect our pressure game, intercepts and tackling to be at fever pitch. That gives me confidence we will win if we execute fwd50 entries and have high goal kicking efficiently.

Just need to breakeven at stoppage and centre clearance and our defensive pressure and transition from def50 should give us enough opportunity up fwd.

Lastly, we can’t underestimate Geelong. They will make in game adjustments if things aren’t going their way. They have no problem in shifting away from their more conservative press heavy game-plan to a more direct, coast to coast and quick football style when challenged by opponents.

They have a pretty decent intercept game themselves, so they will look to punish us on the turnover if they can. They did this in the 4th vs Tigers and against us in our loss to them.

So if we get up by a few goals late we may need to slow the game down a touch and play it safe round the boundary and lock it up for a few minutes (hopefully in our fwd 50).

As we’ve played so many close ones and we are coached very well I expect, if we get in the position Richmond did in round 15, we will adjust and make sure the Cats shift in game-plan bares no fruit.

Saturday can’t come quick enough for me. Super keen to see this play out



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I would like to sum it up by saying that the fact that they play 11 home games against shit opponents will always keep them near the top, if they are vulnerable outside Shitcan park, we have to exploit it.
The MCG doesn't have half the grandstand missing, the lights alone will blind the

 

[Pistol Night]

I would like to sum it up by saying that the fact that they play 11 home games against s**t opponents will always keep them near the top, if they are vulnerable outside Shitcan park, we have to exploit it

I’ll watch nearly any game on TV as a neutral supporter but Geelong games at GMHBA against mediocre interstate sides and the media pathetic fawning over it genuinely makes me want to spew

 

[Juan Ide]

Surely selection should be pretty straightforward this week...

Adams in for Macrae.

B - Quaynor Moore Murphy
HB - N.Daicos Howe Maynard
C - J.Daicos DeGoey Crisp
HF - Elliott Cameron Sidebottom
F - Ginnivan Mihochek Johnson
R - Cox Adams Pendlebury
INT - McCreery Lipinski Noble WHE

Carmichael the sub (could be any of Macrae, Henry, Bianco, Brown etc)

Bang on, iGNITER! I think this will be the (winning) selection.

As I was reading through it, I had only one slight frisson of doubt. Sorry; I've probably just been infected by an uncharacteristic touch of Kappessimism, and it's really nothing, but...

Does anyone else share my slight sinking feeling about Darcy Cameron's inclusion, based on his recent contributions?

Just asking; not at all sure who'd be a suitable replacement, in any case...

Any suggestions? For example, covering his current ruck duties by using AJ in our forward half and promoting one of your named emergencies into the team (maybe even Henry, to square the difference in forward pressure that DC brings)?

 

[NMBB]

I’ll watch nearly any game on TV as a neutral supporter but Geelong games at GMHBA against mediocre interstate sides and the media pathetic fawning over it genuinely makes me want to spew

We quite like our home ground thank you