Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 11 - Dogs v Swans Thu May 23rd 7:30pm AEST (Marvel)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Dogs by a goal or less

    Votes: 3 3.3%
  • Swans by a goal or less

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Dogs by 7 - 20

    Votes: 19 20.9%
  • Swans by 7 - 20

    Votes: 33 36.3%
  • Dogs by a lot

    Votes: 7 7.7%
  • Swans by a lot

    Votes: 25 27.5%
  • Draw

    Votes: 3 3.3%

  • Total voters
    91
  • Poll closed .

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Maybe. From memory Clarkson’s hawks didn’t value it that much and they did ok. Sydney are probably as best positioned as anyone to disregard it as a stat given their prowess in moving the ball by foot and punishing on turnover.

But I’d be interested to hear Longmire’s address to the players. He didn’t look happy that much and best guess is that’s why. Get beaten at the coalface in finals in that fashion means there’s not much margin for error, particularly against better defensive teams than the dogs.

You are not going to get any argument from me. Swans clearances have been a major issue in finals. Can hide it in the regular season but difficult to hide it in finals.
 

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No offence, but the game has moved on from this being an important stat. Contested possessions that lead to 3 under pressure handballs before a turnover while the other team holds their width…you get demolished.

pundits have to get over that stat
Yep, a bit like clearances.

You need the following information to be freely available:

-Effective disposals/score involvements from the contested possession category
-Score differential from clearances

Bulldogs probably did lead on the latter front, perhaps not the former, and then certainly burned themselves by missing chances and getting destroyed on turnover.

Raw clearance and contested possession numbers can only really be relied on if you are looking at a team that consistently uses the ball well from those situations. Battling scrappers who also struggle to defend when the opposition does get a clearance or wins a hard ball? They can dominate these stats and still be outplayed.
 
2 on the bench. No Richards who was BOG and Naughton who is our best forward. Also 4 more green players on the field for Sydney. Sydney very lucky
Episode 2 Whatever GIF
 

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2 on the bench. No Richards who was BOG and Naughton who is our best forward. Also 4 more green players on the field for Sydney. Sydney very lucky


I know dogs fans arent used to losing the free kick count (by 1 mind you)

But the throws they get away with and the fact HTB is just not a rule if you tackle a dogs player, Bont even just gave himself a free at one stage, not sure how you can be against the umpires, they kept you in it.

We were not lucky, just the better side, played average footy and still beat your mob at home, you can have your brave loss, probably lose again next week.
 
We were. I hope we learn from it, bank the 4 points and correct some of the issues for 2 weeks time against Geelong.

I take it Geelong have the bye next week too so that’s equitable…..(checks notes)…oh, ok.

At least they’re at home against a rested swans team…….oh,ok.

Not having a go at the swans btw, more the ludicrous AFL fixture that somehow manages to exacerbate inequality rather than mitigate against it.
 
I take it Geelong have the bye next week too so that’s equitable…..(checks notes)…oh, ok.

At least they’re at home against a rested swans team…….oh,ok.

Not having a go at the swans btw, more the ludicrous AFL fixture that somehow manages to exacerbate inequality rather than mitigate against it.

I could be wrong but historically teams coming off the bye tend to lose against teams that don't have the bye.
 
We were. I hope we learn from it, bank the 4 points and correct some of the issues for 2 weeks time against Geelong.
It'll likely be a white flag effort from Geelong resembling the NT game, so I wouldn't worry about that.

I don't see much going wrong at the SCG for Sydney this season and they'll certainly be earning two home finals. So it's just a matter of pulling it off on the MCG when it matters.
 
I could be wrong but historically teams coming off the bye tend to lose against teams that don't have the bye.

Which has never made sense to me, unless the club on the bye allows the players to really drop standards during that period.
 
I take it Geelong have the bye next week too so that’s equitable…..(checks notes)…oh, ok.

At least they’re at home against a rested swans team…….oh,ok.

Not having a go at the swans btw, more the ludicrous AFL fixture that somehow manages to exacerbate inequality rather than mitigate against it.
You realise this is your first of 5 in a row at Marvel, right?
 
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