List Mgmt. “It’s a form of tanking” the Richmond rebuild

[Footy Smarts]

You make good points.

I'd disagree about doing nothing much for 6 drafts. I count at least 13 decent players drafted in that period (kids).

I'd love to know who these 13 "decent" kids are.

The real problem is there's nobody from the 2018-2023 draftees that's anywhere near being an A-grader or looks likely to get there.

The most proven is Rhyan Mansell who is an ok small forward. The best talent to my eye is Seth Campbell. But he's a nippy player who showed moments of quality not an elite talent that clubs drool over.

1 or 2 from that group might make it in a major way and you'll probably get a few more role players. But that's as bad a result from 6 drafts as you're ever likely to see.

 

[Grrr]

I'd love to know who these 13 "decent" kids are.

The real problem is there's nobody from the 2018-2023 draftees that's anywhere near being an A-grader or looks likely to get there.

The most proven is Rhyan Mansell who is an ok small forward. The best talent to my eye is Seth Campbell. But he's a nippy player who showed moments of quality not an elite talent that clubs drool over.

1 or 2 from that group might make it in a major way and you'll probably get a few more role players. But that's as bad a result from 6 drafts as you're ever likely to see.

Our first round draft picks in 2018 and '19 were picks 17 and 21, so no guarantees but they have not worked out. Every club has these, just two drafts in a row has hurt.

In 2020 our first draft pick was Sampson Ryan at 40 (speculative ruck pick). In 2022 it was Smith pick 49.

'21 Gibcus looked to be headed to A grade before injury. Brown has traits of A grade, his kicking is better than that. All the others are still in the system and progressing.

2023 MaAuliffe was our first at pick 40 and he is a possibility, very strong and aggressive with very good speed 2.9 20m and a great left boot. But at 18 you can't tell.

Not one top 10 draft pick since Conca in 2010.

I think there is more than role players in our group, but they take time and you nor I will know who they are just yet.

 

[Pomsta]

Third best draft hand of all time, well done Richmond. Have the luxury with so many picks to take a good mix of player types. Just need to nail the picks now.

Two wins, then next year win less. When can Richmond start asking for Priority Picks?

When Benny Gale became CEO, apart from his 75-0-3 mantra that everyone laughed at but came to fruition, he stated that Richmond would not ask for any priority picks, as we got ourselves into the mess we were in and it was up to us to get ourselves out. Asking for priority picks is a loser mentality and admitting that you are not capable of doing your job properly as a football department.

 

[GC2015]

Does't this problem solve itself though? You lose a player or players as they come out of contract, you get compensated, you get another player or pick and the new guy is on a different contract cycle. There are many other possible solutions as well. Fear of our recruits being in high demand is likely to be the least of our worries.

Depends on how you choose to look at it. Geelong received two mid-first round picks for losing a prime Gary Ablett Jr to the Suns. One was used to recruit Billie Smedts, who only played 38 games in 6 seasons for the Cats, and the other pick landed them Josh Caddy. Neither set the world on fire and left the Cats after a few years, meanwhile Ablett was on the Gold Coast winning MVPs and a Brownlow.

It really just depends on the quality of the player you lose and where you're placed on the ladder at the time e.g Buddy's compensation landed Hawthorn Billi Hartung. He only lasted four years at the Hawks before being delisted.

 

[Freomaniac]

Not sure how it can't be considered tanking when 3 players wanted out. You are a bit silly if you try and force those players to stay if they have already checked out.

It would be different if we pushed them out, we didn't do that in fact we gave all 4 players pretty good offers to stay (2 were already on great contracts). We just tried to make the best of a crap situation.

3 players wanted out. Liam Baker was not contracted in 2025.

Dan Rioli was contracted until 2027.

Shai Bolton was under contract until 2028.

If Richmond really wanted to, they could of held on to Rioli and Bolton for one more season.

If they did, would Richmond would of got pick 6 from the suns next season? Unlikely as I see them contending for finals.

Had Shai Bolton stayed on Richmonds list in 2025, would Freo still offered as much compo as they currently did? Unlikely .

 

[Freomaniac]

Richmond would be better to spread them out across multiple drafts, to be fair.

That is what I was thinking.

You could argue Richmond could of kept one of Bolton or Dan Rioli.

Richmond got picks 10, 11 and 18 from my team.

I won't be shocked or surprised if one of those draft picks in the Bolton trade is exchanged for a 2025 1st rounder

 

[Footy Smarts]

Our first round draft picks in 2018 and '19 were picks 17 and 21, so no guarantees but they have not worked out. Every club has these, just two drafts in a row has hurt.

In 2020 our first draft pick was Sampson Ryan at 40 (speculative ruck pick). In 2022 it was Smith pick 49.

'21 Gibcus looked to be headed to A grade before injury. Brown has traits of A grade, his kicking is better than that. All the others are still in the system and progressing.

2023 MaAuliffe was our first at pick 40 and he is a possibility, very strong and aggressive with very good speed 2.9 20m and a great left boot. But at 18 you can't tell.

Not one top 10 draft pick since Conca in 2010.

I think there is more than role players in our group, but they take time and you nor I will know who they are just yet.

I know you're relentlessly optimistic about Richmond.

But let's get detailed here.

What players recruited by Richmond from 2018-2023 drafts would be picked in the top 20 if they entered this draft?

So which player is now worth more than a speculative pick where as you say there are "no guarantees"?

 

[Grrr]

I know you're relentlessly optimistic about Richmond.

But let's get detailed here.

What players recruited by Richmond from 2018-2023 drafts would be picked in the top 20 if they entered this draft?

So which player is now worth more than a speculative pick where as you say there are "no guarantees"?

None, Gibcus might have and we hopefully will find out this year.

Our 18 - 20 drafts were poor.

Recently better. Brown is doing fine and could raise to become a very good player, again hard to judge after o few games. Campbell was impressive, again first year player. Green surprised. Others are building, like all teams.

Relentlessly optimistic is different to knowing which players, most of which you have seen very little off, will make it or not as you seem to be able to do. Who would have picked Campbell to play 18 games in his first season.

Sort of irrelevant now. The good ones will stay, the not so good will be replaced by players of this draft which all experts say is a good one, or next, of which we will most likely have pick 1-3.

 

[Grrr]

That is what I was thinking.

You could argue Richmond could of kept one of Bolton or Dan Rioli.

Richmond got picks 10, 11 and 18 from my team.

I won't be shocked or surprised if one of those draft picks in the Bolton trade is exchanged for a 2025 1st rounder

You don't keep players that have helped bring you premierships and want to refresh their careers, that can hurt you. Thanks for everything and no hard feelings.

 

[Coach_Required]

3 players wanted out. Liam Baker was not contracted in 2025.

Dan Rioli was contracted until 2027.

Shai Bolton was under contract until 2028.

If Richmond really wanted to, they could of held on to Rioli and Bolton for one more season.

If they did, would Richmond would of got pick 6 from the suns next season? Unlikely as I see them contending for finals.

Had Shai Bolton stayed on Richmonds list in 2025, would Freo still offered as much compo as they currently did? Unlikely .

Not really sure what your post has got to do with mine?

We made sure we got the best out of it as we could, as I did say no point keeping players on your list if their hearts is no longer in it.

 

[blaisee]

The best thing about this strategy is that it will sell hope

Take the pressure of everyone and play the long game

New fitness boss appointed, 8 new blue chip kids, beautiful

It will be a pleasure going to watch the kids debut and become stars

Reminds be of 2010. Recon we may surprise next year, depends how good these kids are, and if the new fitness boss can keep our experienced players on the park

Very exciting

 

[Boston tiger]

If we miss our draft picks things will be dire. Having the MCG as your home ground gives you no time to catch your breath. Teams will feast upon us.
Or we hit our picks and away we go.

 

[Tas]

Whilst you can force contracted players to stay if they want out, it is usually not a great idea, especially if they extended under a previous coach. They might not be buying in to what the new coach wants to do.

I think Richmond will bounce back quicker than some do... as long as they can get more games out of their senior group, quite a few mature players missed a lot of footy this year, had a lot of LTIs this year. The under 24 group is just pretty thin but that happens after a period of success. They will get a big injection of talent if they take all their picks to the draft this year, and in the next few.

 

[Freomaniac]

None, Gibcus might have and we hopefully will find out this year.

Our 18 - 20 drafts were poor.

Recently better. Brown is doing fine and could raise to become a very good player, again hard to judge after o few games. Campbell was impressive, again first year player. Green surprised. Others are building, like all teams.

Relentlessly optimistic is different to knowing which players, most of which you have seen very little off, will make it or not as you seem to be able to do. Who would have picked Campbell to play 18 games in his first season.

Sort of irrelevant now. The good ones will stay, the not so good will be replaced by players of this draft which all experts say is a good one, or next, of which we will most likely have pick 1-3.

Why bother even talking about the 2018, 2019 and 2020 drafts.

Your side won premierships in 2019 and 2020.

Even then, the 2020 draft was literally a lottery. Local leagues in victoria was cancelled with the corona virus.

 

[BruceTempany14]

I think he is serious Freddy. Frightening.

Yeah I think we need McCartin like quality in the back line ..,




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Yeah I think we need McCartin like quality in the back line ..,




Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Key triple Premiership players are below average it seems. Meanwhile Sydney has a zero Premiership player list.

 

[Obeanie1]

It doesn't matter how Richmond does their rebuild. They will be swept aside.

You Carlton side will be swept aside too and so will my Dockers.

Vicbias has had its run from 2007 to 2023.

AFL wants North bias. LoL

AFL wants the NSW and Queensland sides to win flags.

Carlton or Richmond winning a flag won't bring in new Victorian fans.

AFL wants 2 or 3 million new Queensland fans and 4 million NSW casuals to become Foxtel subscribers to bring in money for the AFL and Foxtel

100%

AFL House cares for one thing and one thing only.


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Equalisation and a fair even competition. Lol. Lip service at most.

 

[Footy Smarts]

None,

So we're in total agreement.

Before any trades you walked into the 2018-2023 drafts with picks 20, 21, 26, 9, 14 and 8. Through bad drafting, bad trading and bad development you're left with nobody who would be worth an equivalent pick.

How is that anything but a terrible result?

Get excited about what might be coming in this draft. But pretending the last 6 drafts has been anything but utterly dire is kidding yourself.

 

[Grrr]

So we're in total agreement.

Before any trades you walked into the 2018-2023 drafts with picks 20, 21, 26, 9, 14 and 8. Through bad drafting, bad trading and bad development you're left with nobody who would be worth an equivalent pick.

How is that anything but a terrible result?

Get excited about what might be coming in this draft. But pretending the last 6 drafts has been anything but utterly dire is kidding yourself.

We are not in total agreement. You have the fantastic ability to be able to see the future of players who are just getting started, I do not. I don't care about you index of equivalent pick, it's a very narrow definition of a player. Gibcus for one is certainly not a bust other than he copped two nasty injuries. That happens.

Others that are in the side and played plenty of football in 2024 and showed plenty, are first year players I am yet to judge. Others have been injured.

Our first round drafting prior to '21 was poor, and our development especially under Hardwick, who I have been critical of in that regard, has been poor. But right now we have a lot of youth in the system who are on the way up, how high we will find out.

 

[Lach72]

Few years of Eagles style floggings coming up.

Interesting the narrative. Fremantle has player “exodus” when Schultz and Logue and Acres leave over a few years
Richmond has shrewd list management when everyone bails at the same time

 

[Sttew]

To respond to the OP, what Richmond has done is most definitely a form of tanking - deliberately foregoing competitiveness over the next 3 - 5 seasons to assemble a team primed to play finals thereafter. If it works we will be singing the team's praises. Not sure what sponsors and supporters will think over the next 3 - 5 years when the team gets belted.

 

[Chronz]

To respond to the OP, what Richmond has done is most definitely a form of tanking - deliberately foregoing competitiveness over the next 3 - 5 seasons to assemble a team primed to play finals thereafter. If it works we will be singing the team's praises. Not sure what sponsors and supporters will think over the next 3 - 5 years when the team gets belted.

All these first rounders aren't guaranteed to be decent players either. If half are duds then they're stuffed. We won't know for half a decade of course but in the meantime we can enjoy seeing the spoons pile up in punt road.

 

[Grrr]

To respond to the OP, what Richmond has done is most definitely a form of tanking - deliberately foregoing competitiveness over the next 3 - 5 seasons to assemble a team primed to play finals thereafter. If it works we will be singing the team's praises. Not sure what sponsors and supporters will think over the next 3 - 5 years when the team gets belted.

How have we deliberately foregone competitiveness. It wasn't us who pushed them out the door, they wanted to leave. Okay Shai, no you stay and play for Richmond and your young family can see you when you play in Perth. Or no to his partner, you have to stay and raise your children away from family because Shai is contracted. I know others have wanted to leave and have been forced to stay, but that doesn't make it right. These are players who have delivered premierships, you respect their wishes.

Graham was looking for a change. Baker wanted out years ago but stayed through loyalty. Rioli wanted out for whatever reason it doesn't really matter. Martin retired, as did Grimes and Pickett. How can you classify that as a form of tanking.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

All these first rounders aren't guaranteed to be decent players either. If half are duds then they're stuffed. We won't know for half a decade of course but in the meantime we can enjoy seeing the spoons pile up in punt road.

All these picks will be inside the top 30 on draft night. Last time Richmond built a team and starting from the first successful draft to exclude the most possible failures:

All top 30 picks taken at the draft by Richmond 2006 - 2016:

13 Riewoldt 26 Edwards
2 Cotchin 18 Rance
8 Vickery 26 Post
3 Martin 19 Griffiths
6 Conca 30 Batchelor
15 B Ellis 26 Elton
9 Vlastuin
12 Lennon
12 C Ellis
15 D Rioli
29 Bolton

9 of those 17 played in at least 1 flag. 8 were not good enough. If we extended that back to the very poor drafts prior, the success rate falls well below half. It did not stop Richmond building a triple flag team.

Richmond has 3 drafts now likely with very strong picks to find about 3-4 marquee level players of the future, assuming 2-3 are already on the list or arrive through free agency. The club likely already has 3-4 of its 7-12 ranked players on the list or will acquire through trades/free agency. So maybe 3 of those need to be drafted. And most of the 13-23 ranked role players will already be on the list. But will no doubt need to recruit a couple of specific players late in the build.

Theclub will likely have around 10 x Rd 1 draft picks + a range of 3-4 other picks in the top 30 over the ext 3 drafts. So a 50% rate of finding top 12 ranked players will be more than adequate to build a competitive team. From there it is mainly a matter of how good the guns are. Last time Richmond built a team with high draft picks they were very very good.

 

[Dangerousfield]

If we miss our draft picks things will be dire. Having the MCG as your home ground gives you no time to catch your breath. Teams will feast upon us.
Or we hit our picks and away we go.

Good balanced view of the road ahead. Nail this draft and Richmond will be on the way up in record time. Favourites for the coveted Pick 1 next year as well, that'll help.