List Mgmt. “It’s a form of tanking” the Richmond rebuild

[SplintWhisky]

Great point. Look at the first round picks for both Gold Coast and GWS when they entered the league:

• GC - David Swallow (1), Harley Bennell (2), Sam Day (3), Josh Caddy (7), Dion Prestia (9), Daniel Gorringe (10), Tom Lynch (11) & Seb Tape (13).
• GWS - Jonathan Patton (1), Stephen Congilio (2), Dom Tyson (3), Will Hoskin-Elliott (4), Matt Buntine (5), Nick Haynes (7), Adam Tomlinson (9), Liam Sumner (10), Toby Greene (11), Taylor Adams (13) & Devon Smith (14).

How many lived up to the hype? I would say Prestia + Lynch for the Suns and Coniglio + Greene for the Giants. The rest were mostly solid players or complete flops. I'd suggest more than half of the drafted players for both Gold Coast and GWS didn't live up to the hype, which shows how risky this approach is. They likely need to spend several years at the bottom (like GWS did) to mitigate the risk of too many draft misses screwing their rebuild.

I wouldn't neglect Haynes for GWS, I think he has done pretty well for them over the journey.

I think what is being missed through is being able to roll those picks into further picks later on. I will agree, the suns class did not do well

Gold Coast:

• David Swallow: Still at Club
• Harley Bennell: Traded + 22 to Dockers for 16 and 35 in 2015
• Sam Day: Delisted 2024
• Josh Caddy: Traded for First round Compensation (Can't find out what number this ended up being. Geelong compo pick for Ablett) + 57
• Dion Prestia: Traded in 2016 + Pick 24 for Pick 6 2016 + F2 for 2017
• Daniel Gorringe: Delisted
• Tom Lynch: Lost to FA, First round pick 2018

GWS

• Jon Patton: Traded in 2019 for a F4 (2020 pick).
• Stephen Cogs: Still at Club
• Dom Tyson: Traded in 2013 + 9 + 57 for 2 + 22 + 76
• Will Hoskin-Elliott: Traded in 2016 for F2 (2017 pick)
• Matt Buntine: Delisted 2021
• Nick Haynes: Departed as FA 2024
• Adam Tomlinson: Departed as FA, end of Second 2019
• Liam Sumner: Traded in 2015 + Plowman + Lamb + Phillips + 8 for 28 + 77 + 95 + F1 (in 2016)
• Toby Greene: Still at club
• Taylor Adams: Traded in 2013 for Heath Shaw
• Devon Smith: Traded in 2017 + 24 + F2 (2018) for 11 + F3 (2018)

So if you nail the picks then you do well. If they turn out to be mediocre then you need to nail the trade.

 

[SplintWhisky]

People often bring up our 2004 draft hand which I get we missed 4/5 picks but I'm not really sure that's relevant 20 years later. Of course it's no guarantee of success but I'd bet we're a lot better equipped these days to get a better outcome via drafting and development from the 6-8 picks we take than those 5 in 2004

2004 was us being thrown into a loop by Hawthorn being really crafty and smart. It was widely known that we wanted Roughhead at pick 4 but Hawthorn wanted him and Buddy. So they just picked him at 2 knowing that we had no desire for Buddy and that the Dogs were on Griffen.

You could argue after that we were thrown into a loop and we may not have taken the spuds like Meyer and Pattinson.

 

[Footy Smarts]

We are not in total agreement.

You've just admitted we're in agreement.

All I'm saying is not a single player from the 2018-2023 drafts looks a good bet to make it in a serious way. You've just said none of them would be taken in the top 20 of an open draft. Same same. Look through the rest of the league and that's a dire result across 6 drafts. You just don't want to admit that obvious conclusion.


I've never written off any Richmond youngster completely apart from ones well into their career who are clearly no good.

But tell us again how Cumberland is like Toby Greene and it was just a coaching conspiracy from Hardwick and McQualter to leave him out. Or how Ralphsmith is "a very good player" who will finish top 5 in the B&F (he actually finished 16th with less votes per game than a cooked McIntosh). Or how Dow is "really good".

 

[Anja_Nees]

People often bring up our 2004 draft hand which I get we missed 4/5 picks but I'm not really sure that's relevant 20 years later. Of course it's no guarantee of success but I'd bet we're a lot better equipped these days to get a better outcome via drafting and development from the 6-8 picks we take than those 5 in 2004

It wasn’t a criticism of Richmond.

The draft is a lottery and having a raft of early picks doesn’t always mean a good haul.

Plenty of clubs have had a strong hand and torched it.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Vlastuin is a below average player? Are you serious or trolling?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I'd say well below average.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You've just admitted we're in agreement.

All I'm saying is not a single player from the 2018-2023 drafts looks a good bet to make it in a serious way. You've just said none of them would be taken in the top 20 of an open draft. Same same. Look through the rest of the league and that's a dire result across 6 drafts. You just don't want to admit that obvious conclusion.


I've never written off any Richmond youngster completely apart from ones well into their career who are clearly no good.

But tell us again how Cumberland is like Toby Greene and it was just a coaching conspiracy from Hardwick and McQualter to leave him out. Or how Ralphsmith is "a very good player" who will finish top 5 in the B&F (he actually finished 16th with less votes per game than a cooked McIntosh). Or how Dow is "really good".

You are being obscure by looking at it from an angle that bears no resemblance to the reality of the situation. We all kow Richmond have drafted no obvious stars 2018 to 2023. Players like Gibcus ad Brown in particular could easily become stars in key roles for the Tigers. Other players could emerge as "stars" in lesser roles.

Across 6 drafts a team would be hoping to find 12 good footballers. The 12 is reduced by ay trades or free agents that come to then club.

2018 - Ross
2019 - possibly Ralphsmith
2020 - M Rioli
2021 - Gibcus Brown Mansell possibly Banks, Clarke
2022 - Campbell possibly Green, Bauer
2023 - Too early to tell, possibly any of McAuliffe, Fawcett, Gray, Blight, but Lefau showed plenty.

There are other possibilities not mentioned.

Mature recruits Taranto, Hopper.

There are already at least 8 players added who are best 22 when fit, and a reasonable person would bet more will emerge.

Then there is a lot of stored up benefit. 8 top 28 picks in the strong 2024 draft. Likely a couple more top 3 picks to come in short order. Plus a huge amount of cap space to find free agents/mature recruits. So don't fret, your stars are coming.

You already clearly uderestimated the market value of Bolton, Rioli and Baker, for whom we got 5 rd 1 picks with no salary paid. You are now applying the same poor judgement to the players who remain on the list. The fact you had to straw man about players like Dow and Cumberland tells us exactly where you are coming from.

 

[Andyy]

You've just admitted we're in agreement.

All I'm saying is not a single player from the 2018-2023 drafts looks a good bet to make it in a serious way. You've just said none of them would be taken in the top 20 of an open draft. Same same. Look through the rest of the league and that's a dire result across 6 drafts. You just don't want to admit that obvious conclusion.


I've never written off any Richmond youngster completely apart from ones well into their career who are clearly no good.

But tell us again how Cumberland is like Toby Greene and it was just a coaching conspiracy from Hardwick and McQualter to leave him out. Or how Ralphsmith is "a very good player" who will finish top 5 in the B&F (he actually finished 16th with less votes per game than a cooked McIntosh). Or how Dow is "really good".

You're dead right.

2018 - Took Collier-Dawkins, big fail. Jack Ross might be a pass/B-grader.
2019 - Thomson Dow, fail IMO, hope we de-list him. Ralphsmith might be a pass/B-grader. Warner slipped to #39 this year.
2020 - Traded 1st pick to Geelong who got Holmes. Epic fail by RFC. Ryan & Rioli still on the list but I have low confidence for both.
2021 - Gibcus, bar injury has showed potential, probably a pass if his body holds up. Brown looks like a pass to me. Low confidence on all of Banks, Sonsie and Clarke.

2022 - Smith & Green. Have seen glimpses from both and I reckon it's too early to tell but they might be OK.
2023 - McAuliffe & Fawcett. Too early to tell. Fawcett injured a lot, McAuliffe has looked very good in the VFL though.

So at this stage we literally have about 2 players who are cementing spots in the AFL team. MRJ probably is too, when fit, but I think that's got a lot to do with the role he plays and the lack of options we have there.

Gibcus and MRJ IMO might come good but honestly that's less than a handful of players who could have established themselves by now, over 6 years of drafting.


Very poor outcome!

 

[Andyy]

You are being obscure by looking at it from an angle that bears no resemblance to the reality of the situation. We all kow Richmond have drafted no obvious stars 2018 to 2023. Players like Gibcus ad Brown in particular could easily become stars in key roles for the Tigers. Other players could emerge as "stars" in lesser roles.

Across 6 drafts a team would be hoping to find 12 good footballers. The 12 is reduced by ay trades or free agents that come to then club.

2018 - Ross
2019 - possibly Ralphsmith
2020 - M Rioli
2021 - Gibcus Brown Mansell possibly Banks, Clarke
2022 - Campbell possibly Green, Bauer
2023 - Too early to tell, possibly any of McAuliffe, Fawcett, Gray, Blight, but Lefau showed plenty.

There are other possibilities not mentioned.

Mature recruits Taranto, Hopper.

There are already at least 8 players added who are best 22 when fit, and a reasonable person would bet more will emerge.

Then there is a lot of stored up benefit. 8 top 28 picks in the strong 2024 draft. Likely a couple more top 3 picks to come in short order. Plus a huge amount of cap space to find free agents/mature recruits. So don't fret, your stars are coming.

You already clearly uderestimated the market value of Bolton, Rioli and Baker, for whom we got 5 rd 1 picks with no salary paid. You are now applying the same poor judgement to the players who remain on the list. The fact you had to straw man about players like Dow and Cumberland tells us exactly where you are coming from.

Looking exclusively at the draft it's a big fail mate.

Guaranteed starters:
Gibcus if fit, Brown, Ross if fit, MRJ if fit, Ralph.

So far the rest haven't cemented a spot.

It's a poor outcome.

Good drafting would surely mean securing 2 or more best-23 players every year.

 

[SSSSSS]

Lot of talent in those picks. Only one guy who screams A grade - Gibcus. If Gibcus stays fit then he is likely to be a top end AFL KP. (If )
Brown has been a slow burn, but looked really good last year. I mean damn kicks like a laser, good defensive and mark. Not a complete player but a lot to like.
Banks, similar to Bown, but a bit less. However, a couple of games last year were extremely good, great kick too.
Clarke has looked like a great small forward/runner when he's been fit. Hard to judge on snippets of very exciting action, like a lot of young kids.
Sonsie, looks like he is the real deal as an A grade distrusting mid. Then just sucks. Confuses me. I was red hot on him, but am getting worried that he is well above VFL level but not might make the AFL. Sonsie is the one (apart from Gibcus) who looks like he could be rolled gold. But a lot of queries about him when the whips come on.

So all the 2021 picks nailed talent, especially kicking. Given fitness/injury I'd say Gibcus A grade, Brown B+, Banks B(+), Clarke B (maybe), and Sonsie F-A. With luck we'll get 5 good to very good players (Amazing draft). With bad luck we'll get one or two good players (OK to Meh draft).

Long answer that doesn't really say I have any solid idea - but not a bust.

Sonsie is too soft IMO.

Chooses when he wants to go. Talent wise he's up there but there's a reason why he slid so far down the pecking order come draft day.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I'd say well below average.

You are saying Vlastuin is well below average. Well below average in what cohort exactly? AFL defenders? AFL players? Richmon players? Star players?

 

[geelong_crazy26]

There’s no such thing as tanking.

There is a difference between being genuinely shithouse and tanking. Richmond are the former not the latter.

The new north Melbourne basket case of the AFL. Need all the picks they can get.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

That supposes that you are better at knowing who is going to turn out the best player in the draft than professional recruiters normally are. So maybe it does'nt suck so much.

The general consensus is ashcroft is the best talent in this pool. You are realistically getting pick no2 not pick 1. Whichever way you want to look at it it’s not ideal.

The draft is an even one but it seems to lack elite top end talent. The WCE pick trade out is obvious of this.

Probably more likely to get a few B+ graders from this crop than a star player with your firsts.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

The general consensus is ashcroft is the best talent in this pool. You are realistically getting pick no2 not pick 1. Whichever way you want to look at it it’s not ideal.

The draft is an even one but it seems to lack elite top end talent. The WCE pick trade out is obvious of this.

Probably more likely to get a few B+ graders from this crop than a star player with your firsts.

Ashcroft is not in the draft. He’s available to no one other than Brisbane.

It’s quite ridiculous that people still do this dance, like they did with Nick Daicos.
From the moment these guys were born, if they were any good, they were off limits to every other club in the comp.

 

[Grrr]

You've just admitted we're in agreement.

All I'm saying is not a single player from the 2018-2023 drafts looks a good bet to make it in a serious way. You've just said none of them would be taken in the top 20 of an open draft. Same same. Look through the rest of the league and that's a dire result across 6 drafts. You just don't want to admit that obvious conclusion.


I've never written off any Richmond youngster completely apart from ones well into their career who are clearly no good.

But tell us again how Cumberland is like Toby Greene and it was just a coaching conspiracy from Hardwick and McQualter to leave him out. Or how Ralphsmith is "a very good player" who will finish top 5 in the B&F (he actually finished 16th with less votes per game than a cooked McIntosh). Or how Dow is "really good".

Pretty sure I said I don't care about your index top 20 thing. For example how would we know what sort of player Gibcus is going to be. Hard to judge a player when they have been injured for two years, but he looked the goods in his first season.

You have said just recently that we have Campbell is our only young player that looks any good, although not elite. Well you can't say that because when a kid plays 18 mostly good games in his first season they are usually destined for higher things. And how was Brown not impressive in his first year. Bauer came in late due to injuries and played a cracker against Hawthorn in his 5th game or so. McAuliffe has plenty to work with. Clarke out injured. There are other names like every club that will come on or not. You can't judge these players yet.

Gobsmacked in regard to Ralphsmith. He had a very good year, I made the comment myself in another thread that how the hell he was 16th when MacIntosh was 10th. I had him over Baker this year, took the wing off both MacIntosh and Pickett and stayed there. B&F's at Richmond are odd. MacIntosh is in almost no posters best 22 this year or going forward but comes 10th in a year where statistically he was bog average, more average than usual.

Yes Cumberland has disappointed, but I'm not on my own there. Talent to burn but lacks footy nous, that can be hidden until really exposed by good opponents. Dow finished the '23 season like he was going to be a player, but did not develop. That happens at every club.

I will agree that our earlier drafting has been poor in general prior to '21 group. From then on it has been okay with most of those kids developing well and playing most weeks. Two years in a row where our first draft picks in the 40's doesn't help.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Looking exclusively at the draft it's a big fail mate.

Guaranteed starters:
Gibcus if fit, Brown, Ross if fit, MRJ if fit, Ralph.

So far the rest haven't cemented a spot.

It's a poor outcome.

Good drafting would surely mean securing 2 or more best-23 players every year.

Teams need to add 2 players per year on average from any source, not just drafting.

You have left out Mansell who is easily best 22. Lefau, who looked comfortably best 22 before doing his knee. And you haven't accounted for the lag for players recruited in the most recent drafts. The club will be comfortable with the combination of the 2020-21 drafts. It is just the first picks in the 2018-19 drafts both not working out that creates the deficit. And you would expect from picks 20 and 21 only a 50% success rate in any event. All the drafts/recruiting either side of 2018-19 have or are likely to be producing 2 x best 22 players per year. In the 2018-19 seasons Richmond recruited Ross, Ralphsmith, Lynch who are in the best 22 now. We are one player short of what needed to be produced.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

You are saying Vlastuin is well below average. Well below average in what cohort exactly? AFL defenders? AFL players? Richmon players? Star players?

Any of the above.

 

[Andyy]

Teams need to add 2 players per year on average from any source, not just drafting.

You have left out Mansell who is easily best 22. Lefau, who looked comfortably best 22 before doing his knee. And you haven't accounted for the lag for players recruited in the most recent drafts. The club will be comfortable with the combination of the 2020-21 drafts. It is just the first picks in the 2018-19 drafts both not working out that creates the deficit. And you would expect from picks 20 and 21 only a 50% success rate in any event. All the drafts/recruiting either side of 2018-19 have or are likely to be producing 2 x best 22 players per year. In the 2018-19 seasons Richmond recruited Ross, Ralphsmith, Lynch who are in the best 22 now. We are one player short of what needed to be produced.

I agree some of these guys are best 22 but TBH our best 22 is quite poor now.

I think you want to draft a player that you think would be getting a game at most or all other clubs.

Mansell tries hard. Lefau too. But these guys wouldn't get games at some other clubs. They are short-term solutions and we won't be building a premiership team around them, much as I enjoy their competitiveness.

The Taranto + Hopper trades are both fails also IMO. It was the wrong decision in hindsight and I do wonder if the club should have predicted that.

 

[Andyy]

Any of the above.

Laughable. Move along mate.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The general consensus is ashcroft is the best talent in this pool. You are realistically getting pick no2 not pick 1. Whichever way you want to look at it it’s not ideal.

The draft is an even one but it seems to lack elite top end talent. The WCE pick trade out is obvious of this.

Probably more likely to get a few B+ graders from this crop than a star player with your firsts.

You are reading very different draft assessments to the ones I am reading. There is no general consensus about the number 1 pick, much less that it is Ashcroft. The ones I have seen floated most in recent times are O'Sullivan and Lalor.

But the two things most people seem to agree on is there are 5-6-7 elite talents at the top of the draft, including Ashcroft, any one of them worthy of pick 1, and the draft has a lot of depth down to around 30 deep. I am sure at least one of the teams with a top 6 pick would prefer Ashcroft was in the pool, but you will know if Richmond is in that category, because they will bid on him if they are.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Any of the above.

Fortunately you don't need to stake your life on that beig correct, or we would indeed be sending flowers for you FBI.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I agree some of these guys are best 22 but TBH our best 22 is quite poor now.

I think you want to draft a player that you think would be getting a game at most or all other clubs.

Mansell tries hard. Lefau too. But these guys wouldn't get games at some other clubs. They are short-term solutions and we won't be building a premiership team around them, much as I enjoy their competitiveness.

The Taranto + Hopper trades are both fails also IMO. It was the wrong decision in hindsight and I do wonder if the club should have predicted that.

I think you are going to be surprised by some of our existing players. Mansell's 2024 season would not look out of place in his role in any AFL team. Lefau also showed he is well and truly up to AFL football in the games he played.

 

[Andyy]

The general consensus is ashcroft is the best talent in this pool. You are realistically getting pick no2 not pick 1. Whichever way you want to look at it it’s not ideal.

The draft is an even one but it seems to lack elite top end talent. The WCE pick trade out is obvious of this.

Probably more likely to get a few B+ graders from this crop than a star player with your firsts.

I've not heard this.

Ashcroft is consistently considered a top 4-6 from what I read.

Lots of elite talent going quite deep, just not clear standout #1 as there are most years.

Regardless if we can nail 4-6 of these 8 that we have, get a couple of A's and a few B's, I think that'll be a good outcome.

Really hoping we address our needs with some midfield pace and key forward options!

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Ashcroft is not in the draft. He’s available to no one other than Brisbane.

It’s quite ridiculous that people still do this dance, like they did with Nick Daicos.
From the moment these guys were born, if they were any good, they were off limits to every other club in the comp.

So was dunkley off limits to every other club?? Strange he became a bulldog then.

Whatever pov you want to make, the point is very simple. Richmond are not getting the best underage player in the country on draft night, Brisbane are.

Very straight forward. They are getting the second best available after * insert your above view or anyone else’s* to the reason or perspective.. end of the day, they are getting the second best, not first

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

So was dunkley off limits to every other club?? Strange he became a bulldog then.

Whatever pov you want to make, the point is very simple. Richmond are not getting the best underage player in the country on draft night, Brisbane are.

Very straight forward. They are getting the second best available after * insert your above view or anyone else’s* to the reason or perspective.. end of the day, they are getting the second best, not first

If Dunkley was deemed a big enough talent he was going directly to the Swans. They fluffed it.

Makes no difference to what I said, no one can take Ashcroft. He’s effectively not even in the draft.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I've not heard this.

Ashcroft is consistently considered a top 4-6 from what I read.

Lots of elite talent going quite deep, just not clear standout #1 as there are most years.

Regardless if we can nail 4-6 of these 8 that we have, get a couple of A's and a few B's, I think that'll be a good outcome.

Really hoping we address our needs with some midfield pace and key forward options!

No, he isn’t, he is widely tipped the best in the crop.