List Mgmt. 2017 Trade & FA Targets Part 2

[plugger66]

Not quite accurate, it's like having two picks out of 10 boxes, some might contain more that a million some less than half, some maybe even a quarter but some might have Buddy Franklin or Bontempelli in them. You take your million but he might not be more than he is now which is probably Pendlebury, we could pass up 2 absolute guns. I would want to do it as a first this year and one next with the Steele pick back, that's pretty much the deal with Treloar but they get a higher first pick this year in all likelihood. Fair deal and not hamstringing our future.

On Roo, he was so much more than a match winner, he was a marquee player, I don't know Kelly will ever be a 6'6" blonde key forward who will be the first one the kids want the signature of. He's a quiet good boy who will do what he needs to on field.

If we get Kelly we wont have a clue what we passed up. And I agree Kelly wont be Roo but he could be Danger.

 

[gringo2011]

Combinations of players will turn us into a flag contender and if you can get 1 star with great leadership with 2 first round draft picks then you take that as opposed to the risk associated with 2 unproven players with potential. I don't think its a sell the farm scenario at all. Yep Kelly won't win us a flag on his own but he's probably got 10 years of elite footy and is exactly what we lack.

Remember Melbourne traded the pick that netted Kelly to GWS for Dom Tyson and a swap of later picks? Tyson was a gun mid at the Giants at the time and it looked super smart recruiting as they got a ready made A grade mid? Never worked out so good for them. He's not in their best 5 mids these days. They have netted guys like Oliver when they actually went to the draft and nearly all their improvement has come from the early picks used well. I want Kelly but not if it hurts our future.

 

[VDS66]

This rebuild was seriously hampered by hardly having any talent in their prime when we started thanks to appalling drafting (and development) from the previous regime. That is a significant disadvantage we've had compared to other clubs that the current staff have had to deal with.

The only genuinely bad draft we've had in that time period was 2012, and that was at least partly caused by the situation with the expansion clubs. Our trades that year were questionable in that we probably overpaid.

2013 I believe will still come good. The only major disappointment so far is Dunstan, but even then he was taken at pick 18, where a lot of players don't work out. Billings is starting to show more of what we expected now that he is getting some continuity and Acres was always touted as a longer term prospect but has nevertheless shown plenty. The trade that we did involving McEvoy was still a pretty good one for us, even if Savage is struggling now. Trades for Longer, Bruce and even Delaney have all given us plenty of value.

2014 has question marks over it, but we also haven't had a lot of time to accurately assess how those players will turn out. I posted on here saying I would have preferred Petracca over McCartin and I still tend to think that Petracca will be the better player. That said, Paddy has only played 22 AFL games, and has suffered badly from concussion and a few other injuries, so it's early to be expecting a whole lot from him. Time will tell whether we got that one wrong. Goddard is similar from any injury standpoint. I certainly don't see anything wrong with picking him. McKenzie is probably 50/50 to have a decent AFL career, but has some more time yet. You could argue we should have taken a genuine midfielder with that pick. Lonie for pick 41 has served us pretty well so far. That someone like Caleb Daniel was still available is disappointing, but we were far from the only club to pass on him. Getting pick 21 (Goddard) for Stanley was a good result.

2015 draft wise is still pretty early to call. Gresham looks good for pick 18. White at pick 40 and Rice at pick 49 both seem pretty decent selections. If either of them are to have good AFL careers it will come down to player development. Wouldn't have minded seeing us try a midfielder rather than White but In terms of trades we did pretty well, Carlisle and Gresham for Francis and Morgan looks good, and although I reckon we gave up a bit much for Freeman, the success rate of draft picks in the second round is pretty low. If Freeman comes off it will look great for us, if not, it's not like we gave up the world.

The 2016 draft is obviously far too early to call. It seemed like we may have reached a bit for Long but only time will tell. Trading was excellent. I'm confident Steele will well and truly repay what we gave up for him, Stevens has already given us a fair bit of value for what we paid and the Hawthorn trade has been described as the most one-sided trade in AFL history thanks to some very astute work from Bains.

Overall draft wise I think we've been middle of the road. There aren't many obvious howlers, and those that are are thanks largely to hindsight (e.g. Billings vs Bontempelli). The McCartin selection might hurt us down the track and I question why we haven't drafted a few more midfielders. We have picked up some good value, e.g. Gresham, I would argue Acres, even Sinclair from the rookie draft.

Player development is where a lot of questions will be asked. At this stage it looks underwhelming but it's hard to gauge and a lot of our high draft picks have suffered from injuries. Certainly it's not up to the level of the Bulldogs or Swans, who have set the benchmark in this area. I don't think it's the worst either, though.

Trading has been excellent on the whole, especially 2016 which still has the potential to be the difference between us being middle of the road for a long time or actually being able to challenge for a premiership. That way we have made a lot of a limited hand both in terms of player value and draft pick value.

The biggest reason we've looked disappointing this year IMO is the match day coaching. Tactically the coaches have been soundly beaten quite a few times. We need to make sure we get this right over the next year, but it's not time to be calling for radical change just yet.

Great work. Don't forget big Jake

 

[gringo2011]

I understand the argument for not going after Kelly, it is what I am saying is insane. We have to spend the $ in our SC anyway, so I don't see the $ as a problem. With the picks, you somewhat risk missing on 2 jets if you nailed them, likely not though. Kelly is a jet, could win a Brownlow this year. It isn't overhype, he's the ******* real deal.

The salary cap spend is a misleading thing, we don't have to spend it. If we give it up now we have to keep paying it into the future and that's when it goes from an advantage to an anchor.

 

[plugger66]

Remember Melbourne traded the pick that netted Kelly to GWS for Dom Tyson and a swap of later picks? Tyson was a gun mid at the Giants at the time and it looked super smart recruiting as they got a ready made A grade mid? Never worked out so good for them. He's not in their best 5 mids these days. They have netted guys like Oliver when they actually went to the draft and nearly all their improvement has come from the early picks used well. I want Kelly but not if it hurts our future.

Lets be honest Gringo we can find many examples either way to suit our situation. And I don't think we can compare Tyson to Kelly in anyway.

 

[VDS66]

Spot on

Can you imagine him taking the Norm Smith against us?

Sorry but don't want him doing an Andrew McCloud on us.

Or a Barry Hall, Greene or even Stewart on us.

Hawthorn get it done... about ****ing time we do too.

 

[gringo2011]

Armo didn't have an amazing year. I doubt Kelly is fluking this year. Anyway you would never not take a plyer because his year maybe a fluke. All I think of is Kelly saying its the Saints and we say sorry but we don't want you. 3 weeks later he wins the brownlow and 5 days later a flag.

Armo lead the AFL in disposals for the year until round 22. He had one outstanding year. Injury got him in the end but don't downplay his achievements (even if they were brief) to suit your argument.

 

[VDS66]

Not quite accurate, it's like having two picks out of 10 boxes, some might contain more that a million some less than half, some maybe even a quarter but some might have Buddy Franklin or Bontempelli in them. You take your million but he might not be more than he is now which is probably Pendlebury, we could pass up 2 absolute guns. I would want to do it as a first this year and one next with the Steele pick back, that's pretty much the deal with Treloar but they get a higher first pick this year in all likelihood. Fair deal and not hamstringing our future.

On Roo, he was so much more than a match winner, he was a marquee player, I don't know Kelly will ever be a 6'6" blonde key forward who will be the first one the kids want the signature of. He's a quiet good boy who will do what he needs to on field.

And that just proves my point... all speculation.

FWIW I agree with this and next year first and take one to the draft.

 

[gringo2011]

Lets be honest Gringo we can find many examples either way to suit our situation. And I don't think we can compare Tyson to Kelly in anyway.

Well Tyson was looking set to become something very special like Treloar did at GWS. These guys look better at GWS because their depth is so good they are free to do what ever they want. Kelly looks like he's blue chip but you can't guarantee anything in life.

 

[plugger66]

Armo lead the AFL in disposals for the year until round 22. He had one outstanding year. Injury got him in the end but don't downplay his achievements (even if they were brief) to suit your argument.

Not at all. It wasn't an amazing year. It was a very good year. Tom Mitchell is leading the disposals this year. His year is very good but certainly not amazing.

 

[plugger66]

Well Tyson was looking set to become something very special like Treloar did at GWS. These guys look better at GWS because their depth is so good they are free to do what ever they want. Kelly looks like he's blue chip but you can't guarantee anything in life.

I think you need to refresh your memory. He had played 13 games and averaged 16 disposals per game.

 

[gringo2011]

And that just proves my point... all speculation.

FWIW I agree with this and next year first and take one to the draft.

It is a gamble but top 10 picks are very likely to net high grade players and top 5 even more so. We haven't taken many to the draft despite being down for a long time. Billings and Paddy our two picks taken in that range. Melbourne would have at least 6 in the same period. We still have a funny list profile with most of our mid career guys bought in from outside because we spent 10 years drafting and trading badly.

 

[gringo2011]

I think you need to refresh your memory. He had played 13 games and averaged 16 disposals per game.

He was hyped because he looked like a potential gun though. 16 disposals a game in your first 13 games sounds pretty good to me.

 

[gringo2011]

Not at all. It wasn't an amazing year. It was a very good year. Tom Mitchell is leading the disposals this year. His year is very good but certainly not amazing.

Armo wasn't as loose and undamaging as Titch though.

 

[Yawkey way]

Which GWS midfielder wouldn't we take, it's a pretty impressive set up .

They have repurposed guns like green because they have so many, Kelly looks the goods but he will find it a bit harder no matter where he goes.

 

[Rors]

The salary cap spend is a misleading thing, we don't have to spend it. If we give it up now we have to keep paying it into the future and that's when it goes from an advantage to an anchor.

No. We DO have to spend it, we must spend 105% next year or we lose all 3 years worth of 105%. I posted the guidelines here last week

 

[Longmembrey]

Everyone looks at the benefits but then don't look at the cost. I posted this on another thread - and this is what worries me about trying to get Kelly.

So since the chances of scoring a gun by the trade are supposed to be so low then if we trade for Kelly we HAVE to give more than ONE pick. If its that stacked we'd have to give up the Hawks pick + our Pick so lets say 2 & 6.

Look at last years draft

Pick 2 Tim Taranto - first season - has played 10 games in what is acknowledged as the best squad in the comp and is averaging 17 possessions. Petrevski - Seton Pick 6 has played 10 games in a pretty reasonable midfield @ 14 possessions.

So now lets say we throw the money at a Rockliff (free agent) and keep the draft picks, then the comparison for our midfield next year is

Kelly (30 possessions a game) - Pick 2 (Hawks) - Pick 6 (Saints) V Rockliff (30 poss)+ Taranto (17) + Petreveski-Seton (14).

Getting Kelly doesn't prevent us from getting Rockliff though

 

[StCicatriz]

Can you imagine him taking the Norm Smith against us?

Sorry but don't want him doing an Andrew McCloud on us.

Or a Barry Hall, Greene or even Stewart on us.

Hawthorn get it done... about ******* time we do too.

Spot on! I just can't see how people can think we are capable of producing a better outcome from the draft whilst ignoring the more probable outcome in kelly.

Having said that for him to win a norm smith against us would imply we make a grand final with this group

I think it'd be more apt we take pick 3 and 10 to the draft and end up with another acres and dunstan whilst we sit back watching it fall apart whilst Kelly wins multiple flags, Brownlow and norm smith

Then people will detest our drafting and why we didn't get kelly. I'm sure there will be a bunch of excuses used to justify not trading for kelly. It'll be something.

 

[StCicatriz]

No. We DO have to spend it, we must spend 105% next year or we lose all 3 years worth of 105%. I posted the guidelines here last week

That's what makes the performance of the side and football dept so frustrating. We've done everything outside of that to help them. We've engineered good trades. We've hit the draft hard. We've maximized our cap. We've given us the best scenario to enter the contention phase

Now we are looking at that being stunted because the football dept couldn't keep up its end of the bargain.

 

[Periphery]

No. We DO have to spend it, we must spend 105% next year or we lose all 3 years worth of 105%. I posted the guidelines here last week

You don't lose that extra 5% though. You just pay forward or front load contracts to free up even more cap space in future years.

 

[Rors]

You don't lose that extra 5% though. You just pay forward or front load contracts to free up even more cap space in future years.

No. If you pay 95% for 3 yrs, you can pay 1 yr at 100%, then must pay 105% for the following 3yrs or you lose the right to pay 105% altogether for the 3 yrs. (See point (f) )



I understand what you mean though, if we didn't get a gun elite recruit, we'd just over pay everyone to get to 105% then go again for an elite gun the following year. Problem is that kinda defeats the purpose of building a war chest

 

[SaintLuko]

It's still 6 drafts. The current recruitment team was in place during 2011. Call it what you want.

Watters sold the club a mini rebuild and finals. It turned into a full rebuild well before he was sacked as pelchen and ameet had put together the list strategy to 2020 which was openly being presented to long serving members during the 2013 season. You don't just come up with that overnight and bang present it. The wheels were in motion in 2012 IMO

You keep trying to minimise what has happened and are looking for excuses to downplay what's happening. Then it will fall apart and you'll be sitting there stating the obvious that our development wasn't up to standard to win a flag

Anyways it's my last post on the topic as I don't think people are ready for the discussion yet

They are not excuses they are reasons.. 2020 is still 3 seasons away. The club has been open in stating that intend to be a top 4 side in 2018, everything that we have done drafting and trading is based around that.

We have drafted players knowing that will take longer to develop, for example Billings at 3, who had soft tissue issues during his draft year, Paddy McCartin was always going to take longer to develop. Both players have had injuries that has delayed their development. You don't trade for Nathan Freeman expecting him to be a superstar in 2016-17. Drafting and development takes time, Seb Ross is a great example of this.

I was as frustrated as the next person about how we played Friday, but expectations need to tempered here. We are just not that good - yet.
But if we can get 2 A-grade mids in the off-season, who knows what 2018 brings..

 

[Saint Shags]

It's still 6 drafts. The current recruitment team was in place during 2011. Call it what you want.

Watters sold the club a mini rebuild and finals. It turned into a full rebuild well before he was sacked as pelchen and ameet had put together the list strategy to 2020 which was openly being presented to long serving members during the 2013 season. You don't just come up with that overnight and bang present it. The wheels were in motion in 2012 IMO

You keep trying to minimise what has happened and are looking for excuses to downplay what's happening. Then it will fall apart and you'll be sitting there stating the obvious that our development wasn't up to standard to win a flag

Anyways it's my last post on the topic as I don't think people are ready for the discussion yet

No you don't want to comment further because you realise that the rebuild fully came into effect in 2013.
It doesn't suit your narrative with a number of posters making the point that until 2013 that the club didn't face facts and realise that a full blown rebuild needed to be undertaken. It was not until 2014 that we hit rock bottom. 4 years of drafting and cutting off the deadwood. What also hurt was the losses of players that we had drafted under previous coaches and left because of limited opportunity. So there has been 4 drafts not the 6.

 

[Saint Watto]

Met peter summers at an event today and had a good long chat abt where we at:

Thanks very much for the report there saintsmania.

Man....I would've love to be in yr shoes and listen to what Prez had to say.....or be the one asking the questions........as you were hearing it from the very top and if what Prez said is what's going to happen....good,bad......right or wrong....that is where our ship is sailing.

 

[BrianSpeaking]

Hi Brian. I am a firm believer that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. So yes, take kelly 100% but 6 months ago 2017 was meant to be a super draft. This seems to happen every year. I.e. nexts years draft is always a super draft. Re. Hickey....always a fan of his over longer.

Thoughts on why we have fallen off a cliff? I.e. are we only good against the bottom 8?

Sent from my SM-G925I using Tapatalk

Great post, greed is bad, win win is good.
I'm not surprised we've fallen off, a much tougher draw, about to get tougher. We will be fine, although I would sack Searle and Gilbee from the development coaches.