List Mgmt. 2017 Trade & FA Targets Part 2

[sunny3193]

Excellent post. I would add Himmelberg too as he's another who was a 1st round pick & with an extended run in the ones, looks better every week. So there's 2 elite (Kelly & Smith) & 3 potentially elite (Hopper, M Kennedy & HH) that are OOC.

I don't think people understand the magnitude of the hand we hold for this years draft, particularly with GWS first picks being all the way back at pick 25 & 26 (our 2nd for Steele, Pies 2nd for WHE)

I understand, you understand, and BrianSpeaking does too.
That's why I was so intrigued that no one appeared to realise what you were telling them.
For the first time in a long while, GWS is not negotiating from their usual position of strength. For them to get what they need, they have to offer us something of real value.
And note that I am putting the emphasis on them making the offer, not us.
We can always go to the draft.

We are so going to be trade bandits again.

Life is good.

 

[VDS66]

Excellent post. I would add Himmelberg too as he's another who was a 1st round pick & with an extended run in the ones, looks better every week. So there's 2 elite (Kelly & Smith) & 3 potentially elite (Hopper, M Kennedy & HH) that are OOC.

I don't think people understand the magnitude of the hand we hold for this years draft, particularly with GWS first picks being all the way back at pick 25 & 26 (our 2nd for Steele, Pies 2nd for WHE)

Haha the old golden rule...he who has the gold makes the rules!

 

[StCicatriz]

So your saying Billings and McCartin are complete duds because of our coaches and development and therefore we should trade multiple first round draft picks to cover up the failures of our system.

Don't think that's a recipe for success - fix the system if that's the problem.

Lets get this straight - I would love to have Kelly but not "AT ANY PRICE". The money we pay him is irrelevant its the draft picks back to GWS that will be the problem.

He was a Pick 2 before he played a game (so that's a 50/50 chance to be any good according to lots here) so given his output and apparently how great he is he's so according to that theory then starting price has to be way more than 2 Top 5 picks. (known star v unknown)

If that's the case then GWS's starting point for Kelly must be - Hawthorns 1st and St Kilda's 1st 2017 + St Kilda 1st 2018.

Would we pay that - hope not!!

Would we look at the same deal sweetened by a GWS 2018 first rounder - possibly - first rounder and a probable starting 22 - definitely

Given our midfield situation if we are going to go after Kelly here's what I'd be looking around this

Kelly AND Hopper for Hawthorns 1st and St Kilda's 1st draft picks for 2017 and St Kilda 1st 2018 (plus change)

And I'd throw this offer in just to see what they say

Kelly, Hopper and Devon Smith for Hawthorns 1st 2017, St Kilda's 1st 2017 and St Kilda 1st 2018 + Billy Longer or Tom Hickey

.

I'm not saying Billings or McCartin are duds. I think McCartin needs to time before we know. Billings will be an excellent HFF

My point is that we need midfielders, elite ones who win games. Especially outside ones with pace and if the 2020 strategy is still on we need them, as you have suggested, firing inside 3 seasons. Basically they have two off seasons to get going.

The good news is outside mids generally are quicker to have an impact than KPP or inside mids.

My point is that to date based on what we know Billings is the best high end pick we have drafted and developed with this team but hes not a midfielder. That doesn't mean I think he's a bust. It's just describing the knowns.

I'm trying to explain that in order to support and hit the 2020 goal the best chance of us landing an elite mid is to get kelly it's, not to go to the draft. As the best case examples of us drafting and developing talent to date are not at the level of kelly.

I think the people wanting us to go to the draft do not even understand what is in this draft. It is not as good as last year. It will be shallow and it doesn't have the top end of last year. People are already saying next year will be better. Theyre also ignoring the fact hit rate of developing elite midfield talent from the draft is low.

You can't keep doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. It's the old mid 2000s talk of let's go to the draft and get Chris Judd. Whilst ignoring what your club has done done to date with the same mechanism.

BTW agree entirely on fixing the problem. We need to do that regardless of the decision on kelly. But the outcome from fixing it will not be immediate and it will take time.

Tbh I'd happily part with two first rounders in this draft for kelly. Hold onto next year's first. Then look to get back into the draft by some other mechanism be it off the back of the kelly trade or some other way.

Side note: I can't see the coaching staff especially richo being too keen on using both first rounders this year on the draft. They'll want something to hit the ground running rather than looking at the longer term when they might not be around to see that longer term option come to fruition.

 

[VDS66]

What people don't see in that trade is that Demons received Tyson, Salem (pick 9) & Jayden Hunt (pick 57)

When you look at the whole trade as a package, Melbourne did quite well.

GWS also did well with their on-trading of the Demons pick 20 they received & moved picks around to nab McCarthy at pick 14 & Lobb at pick 29

Correct. He said it was a win win for both clubs at the time.

Interestingly, Bont wasn't in the picture of top 3. So just shows with Boyd what a lotto it is.

 

[VDS66]

LMAO if we land Kelly and Fyfe.

 

[Premium]

We have to release 5 players at draft time
- Dempster is gone
- Montagna should retire - he has been a champ , but needs to move on
- Pierce not needed
- Reiwoldt / most probably will retire due to injury - hope not but not looking good - age with bad knees is not a good mixture
- ?

Having 2 of our all time greats retiring is a shame , but with them leaving they have to be replaced - with good players

I really do think we have our hooks in Kelly/Whitfield and Fyfe/Dusty/Rockcliff and another tall backman - May - Lever
we must get at least 3 of these type of players at least


TOM HICKEY needed - 1st or 2nd ruck
BLAKE ACRES needed - future of the team
DAVID ARMITAGE - basically has had injury problems and will he recapture his form from a few years ago
JOSH BATTLE needed - young recruit give time
JACK BILLINGS needed - future of the team
NATHAN BROWN - has been value for us this year - however we need another tall backman
JOSH BRUCE needed - future of the team
JAKE CARLISLE needed - future of the team
LUKE DUNSTAN - has not set the world on fire , is still young and last couple years he had injury problems = give him time ?
NATHAN FREEMAN - hope he comes good
JARRYN GEARY needed - future of the team
SAM GILBERT - has had a good year - will be kept
HUGH GODDARD needed - future of the team
JADE GRESHAM needed - future of the team
JASON HOLMES - can be used if really needed
BEN LONG needed - young recruit give time
BILLY LONGER needed
JACK LONIE - still young - should be given another year
PADDY MACARTIN needed - young recruit give time
DANIEL MCKENZIE needed -future of the team
TIM MEMBERY needed - future of the team
DARREN MICHINGTON - plays well in the VFL - has contract - so will be kept
JACK NEWNES needed - future of the team
ED PHILLIPS needed - young recruit give time
BAILEY RICE needed - young recruit give time
DYLAN ROBERTSON needed - future of the team
SEB ROSS needed - future of the team
SHANE SAVAGE - see what happens in the remaining games
JACK SINCLAIR needed - future of the team
JACK STEELE needed - future of the team
JACK STEVEN needed - future of the team
KOBY STEVENS needed - future of the team
JIMMY WEBSTER needed future of the team
MAV WELLER - has not played as well as last year - like most of the team
BRANDON WHITE needed - young recruit give time
NATHAN WRIGHT - see what happens in the remaining games

I'm not saying Billings or McCartin are duds. I think McCartin needs to time before we know. Billings will be an excellent HFF

My point is that we need midfielders, elite ones who win games. Especially outside ones with pace and if the 2020 strategy is still on we need them, as you have suggested, firing inside 3 seasons. Basically they have two off seasons to get going.

The good news is outside mids generally are quicker to have an impact than KPP or inside mids.

My point is that to date based on what we know Billings is the best high end pick we have drafted and developed with this team but hes not a midfielder. That doesn't mean I think he's a bust. It's just describing the knowns.

I'm trying to explain that in order to support and hit the 2020 goal the best chance of us landing an elite mid is to get kelly it's, not to go to the draft. As the best case examples of us drafting and developing talent to date are not at the level of kelly.

I think the people wanting us to go to the draft do not even understand what is in this draft. It is not as good as last year. It will be shallow and it doesn't have the top end of last year. People are already saying next year will be better. Theyre also ignoring the fact hit rate of developing elite midfield talent from the draft is low.

You can't keep doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. It's the old mid 2000s talk of let's go to the draft and get Chris Judd. Whilst ignoring what your club has done done to date with the same mechanism.

BTW agree entirely on fixing the problem. We need to do that regardless of the decision on kelly. But the outcome from fixing it will not be immediate and it will take time.

Tbh I'd happily part with two first rounders in this draft for kelly. Hold onto next year's first. Then look to get back into the draft by some other mechanism be it off the back of the kelly trade or some other way.

Side note: I can't see the coaching staff especially richo being too keen on using both first rounders this year on the draft. They'll want something to hit the ground running rather than looking at the longer term when they might not be around to see that longer term option come to fruition.

 

[35Saints35]

I'm intrigued that, perhaps with the exception of BrianSpeaking, no one has really responded to your curious and perceptive post of a few days ago.
The one where you identified that with their Whitfield drug saga penalty, GWS has no presence in this year's first round.
GWS's business model is built on multiple first rounders (because of their initial AFL concessions, their talent base maturing, their retention of high end talent now being hampered by salary cap constraints, and their need to roll over talent in order to retain their high end).
Failure to have a first round presence is an anathema to them.
Particularly when they have tradeable, excess talent.
You rightly identify their four uncontracted players, Kelly among them, that appear to be on "offer".
The significance of this does not seem to have been understood on this thread.
It places our two clubs in a unique position.
We have multiple first rounders, currently #3 and #7, GWS have none.
(The other holders of multiple first rounders can be discounted: Brisbane, currently with #1 and #14, are on a different development curve and won't trade; while Richmond, currently #15 and #16, have picks of marginal value to GWS).
Even our apparent rival (North), can only currently offer #4 and a future first rounder next year (and given the lesson everyone has learned from Hawthorn's experience, a future pick has marginal currency).
So the question then becomes: what are GWS prepared to trade and what are we prepared to offer?
Whether it be for Kelly alone, or any combination of the players.
And by players, I would not restrict the definition to include only those out of contract.
I have no idea of the outcome (although I have my suspicions), but I do envision us being trade bandits in consecutive years.

Life is good.

Yawkey Way: this is the avenue to build talent you have been seeking, a poor decision by one club and a penalty on another where the benefits of both accrue to a third. (BTW: given your nickname, you've spent time in Maine?)

Great call . Spells out perfectly .

 

[Mowman]

LMAO if we land Kelly and Fyfe.

Would not be surprised if we still land Fyfe

 

[Saint Watto]

i reckon the majority are pretty damn flat about the loss

Great call there StCicatriz..........we've had basically 4 weeks of bad to very bad news......it just takes the Mickey out of you...well .....for me anyway.

We had that bad Carlton game(I was knackered at the end of that).......then a full 6 days of media blow torch on the Sledge business......and 3 very bad losses(a really bad one Fri night) in a row after that....no wonder everyone's tank is empty.

 

[StCicatriz]

I understand, you understand, and BrianSpeaking does too.
That's why I was so intrigued that no one appeared to realise what you were telling them.
For the first time in a long while, GWS is not negotiating from their usual position of strength. For them to get what they need, they have to offer us something of real value.
And note that I am putting the emphasis on them making the offer, not us.
We can always go to the draft.

We are so going to be trade bandits again.

Life is good.

That's depends on how crucial they see the need to getting back into the first round and if they need picks

The problem with GWS is they are so stacked with talent and have a decent Academy that they know they will churn players and be able to replace them.

They know they will get picks every year and they known they will lose players.

It's supply and demand. GWS will have clubs lining up for the players that want to leave so will always have the better or the scenario.

Take kelly for example say we don't get a trade done. Then what? He goes into the draft where we don't have the upper hand?

 

[Glen Buterol]

Jesus Christ Kelly's composure in traffic & one-touch skills. He's like Pendlebury on meth.

If we were to get Kelly + steak knives then I'd love Matt Kennedy. He's a bull but has very good agility for a cave man on horse meat diet.

Kelly & Kennedy for pick 3 & 7.

 

[Rors]

We have to release 5 players at draft time
- Dempster is gone
- Montagna should retire - he has been a champ , but needs to move on
- Pierce not needed
- Reiwoldt / most probably will retire due to injury - hope not but not looking good - age with bad knees is not a good mixture
- ?

Having 2 of our all time greats retiring is a shame , but with them leaving they have to be replaced - with good players

I really do think we have our hooks in Kelly/Whitfield and Fyfe/Dusty/Rockcliff and another tall backman - May - Lever
we must get at least 3 of these type of players at least


TOM HICKEY needed - 1st or 2nd ruck
BLAKE ACRES needed - future of the team
DAVID ARMITAGE - basically has had injury problems and will he recapture his form from a few years ago
JOSH BATTLE needed - young recruit give time
JACK BILLINGS needed - future of the team
NATHAN BROWN - has been value for us this year - however we need another tall backman
JOSH BRUCE needed - future of the team
JAKE CARLISLE needed - future of the team
LUKE DUNSTAN - has not set the world on fire , is still young and last couple years he had injury problems = give him time ?
NATHAN FREEMAN - hope he comes good
JARRYN GEARY needed - future of the team
SAM GILBERT - has had a good year - will be kept
HUGH GODDARD needed - future of the team
JADE GRESHAM needed - future of the team
JASON HOLMES - can be used if really needed
BEN LONG needed - young recruit give time
BILLY LONGER needed
JACK LONIE - still young - should be given another year
PADDY MACARTIN needed - young recruit give time
DANIEL MCKENZIE needed -future of the team
TIM MEMBERY needed - future of the team
DARREN MICHINGTON - plays well in the VFL - has contract - so will be kept
JACK NEWNES needed - future of the team
ED PHILLIPS needed - young recruit give time
BAILEY RICE needed - young recruit give time
DYLAN ROBERTSON needed - future of the team
SEB ROSS needed - future of the team
SHANE SAVAGE - see what happens in the remaining games
JACK SINCLAIR needed - future of the team
JACK STEELE needed - future of the team
JACK STEVEN needed - future of the team
KOBY STEVENS needed - future of the team
JIMMY WEBSTER needed future of the team
MAV WELLER - has not played as well as last year - like most of the team
BRANDON WHITE needed - young recruit give time
NATHAN WRIGHT - see what happens in the remaining games

Wright & Lewis Pierce both have a contract for 2018.

Armo is contracted to end of 2019

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Remember Melbourne traded the pick that netted Kelly to GWS for Dom Tyson and a swap of later picks? Tyson was a gun mid at the Giants at the time and it looked super smart recruiting as they got a ready made A grade mid? Never worked out so good for them. He's not in their best 5 mids these days. They have netted guys like Oliver when they actually went to the draft and nearly all their improvement has come from the early picks used well. I want Kelly but not if it hurts our future.

If Kelly was 27 I'd see your point.

And Tyson was never a gun mid. He was a promising young player but not half the player Kelly was 12 months ago let alone now.

Getting Kelly this year doesn't stop us from adding more elite young talent over the next 5 years either... it just means that we'll have traded for a serious elite talent whereas the Dees have a plodder like Tyson running around at Casey.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DGontheQT]

Great call there StCicatriz..........we've had basically 4 weeks of bad to very bad news......it just takes the Mickey out of you...well .....for me anyway.

We had that bad Carlton game(I was knackered at the end of that).......then a full 6 days of media blow torch on the Sledge business......and 3 very bad losses(a really bad one Fri night) in a row after that....no wonder everyone's tank is empty.

Thank God for Hawthorn !!

 

[DGontheQT]

Wright & Lewis Pierce both have a contract for 2018.

Armo is contracted to end of 2019

Giving Wright a 2 year contract wasn't necessary , and wasn't a good move. He always has a crack though.

 

[Saint Watto]

Our list in 2013 was utterly diabolical so to get to the point where we are now (probably 2 elite mids short of a good midfield, a solid backline & promising yet inexperienced forward line) is a phenomenal effort.

Great post Winmar2Lockett.......X100.

 

[Yawkey way]

I'm intrigued that, perhaps with the exception of BrianSpeaking, no one has really responded to your curious and perceptive post of a few days ago.
The one where you identified that with their Whitfield drug saga penalty, GWS has no presence in this year's first round.
GWS's business model is built on multiple first rounders (because of their initial AFL concessions, their talent base maturing, their retention of high end talent now being hampered by salary cap constraints, and their need to roll over talent in order to retain their high end).
Failure to have a first round presence is an anathema to them.
Particularly when they have tradeable, excess talent.
You rightly identify their four uncontracted players, Kelly among them, that appear to be on "offer".
The significance of this does not seem to have been understood on this thread.
It places our two clubs in a unique position.
We have multiple first rounders, currently #3 and #7, GWS have none.
(The other holders of multiple first rounders can be discounted: Brisbane, currently with #1 and #14, are on a different development curve and won't trade; while Richmond, currently #15 and #16, have picks of marginal value to GWS).
Even our apparent rival (North), can only currently offer #4 and a future first rounder next year (and given the lesson everyone has learned from Hawthorn's experience, a future pick has marginal currency).
So the question then becomes: what are GWS prepared to trade and what are we prepared to offer?
Whether it be for Kelly alone, or any combination of the players.
And by players, I would not restrict the definition to include only those out of contract.
I have no idea of the outcome (although I have my suspicions), but I do envision us being trade bandits in consecutive years.

Life is good.

Yawkey Way: this is the avenue to build talent you have been seeking, a poor decision by one club and a penalty on another where the benefits of both accrue to a third. (BTW: given your nickname, you've spent time in Maine?)

Huge Red Sox fan, it's a street at Fenway park. Family are spread out all over the states but no not Maine.

Yes this is exactly what I have been seeking an avenue to bring the required talent into the club over and above the usual.

 

[VDS66]

Would not be surprised if we still land Fyfe

You thinking what I'm thinking, Batman?

 

[VDS66]

Great call there StCicatriz..........we've had basically 4 weeks of bad to very bad news......it just takes the Mickey out of you...well .....for me anyway.

We had that bad Carlton game(I was knackered at the end of that).......then a full 6 days of media blow torch on the Sledge business......and 3 very bad losses(a really bad one Fri night) in a row after that....no wonder everyone's tank is empty.

I get that.

I also wonder if our current plan is a result of a lack of elite outside runners who can spread into space?

If we get two such players, the plan will change accordingly IMO.

 

[aussierulesrules]

Saw will Brodie go through something similar last year and he was much better than Fogarty

He looked injured but I do think the hype on him isn't going to hold. Similar to Brodie. I think he slides

The issue for Fogarty will be where do people see him playing. Is he an inside mid or a fwd

Hes also undersized and we know that means if he's a KPF he will slide

Happy to book mark this. Called it last year on Brodie, Powell Pepper and Bolton

Also I think the hype on patmore is similar to hura. Hill and Roe much better options

If someone's playing injured it's extremely difficult to tell from the outside how much it's affected them and how much they're down on their usual output if that's the only time you've seen them play though. It's also only one game. Just because someone has a down game (even if they're not injured) it's not necessarily reflective of their overall quality.

Others who have seen plenty of him when he's not playing injured and who follow the juniors really closely speak extremely highly of him (hence being in the mix for pick 1), so the likelihood of Battle being better than him is extremely low, even if Darcy's not as good as some are saying.

I'm also not sure why you'd be bragging about calling out Powell-Pepper as overrated, as he seems to be going alright this year! Bolton is also already playing in a top 5 team.

Lacked moments of brilliance. That last year's state game had. Wasn't bad but I feel it's down on last years

Are you aware of the fact though that WA are meant to be rubbish this year compared to last year and that between the two states, WA and SA are currently expected to have as few as one or two in the top 20 of this year's draft?

So I wouldn't go reading too much into the overall quality of this year's draft from that game. It would be like watching an AFL game between teams ranked 13th and 14th and based solely on that game making a judgement of the overall quality of football. The top 20 this year at this stage looks like being completely dominated by those from VC and VM, so the games involving those two teams are the ones that are far more relevant.

It wasn't that bad. It was on par with Brodie game last year over here. But the output wasn't the same as brodie

Trust me hes not as good as people are making him out to be. Has a nice leap for his size though and is a brute of a kid but I think he's stuck between being McCartin and Petracca

Hes not the player we are looking for

I agree that there's a very good chance that he's not ideally suited to us, as he would probably need to start forward for the first few years of his career and we already have enough height up there. Then again, I reckon there are probably a lot of similarities between him and BJ, and BJ started his career down back, so if we drafted Fogarty, perhaps he starts his career in the type of role Lever is playing for Adelaide. A role he's apparently played at times in SA in the last 12 months.

 

[Joffaboy]

You thinking what I'm thinking, Batman?

Could you tell me what you are thinking because to me this Fyfe talk doesnt make sense.

Are we overthinking it a bit?

 

[sunny3193]

Huge Red Sox fan, it's a street at Fenway park. Family are spread out all over the states but no not Maine.

Yes this is exactly what I have been seeking an avenue to bring the required talent into the club over and above the usual.

Ah, that explains it. I spent the last two weeks of May in NE. Boston and back to Boston in a Corvette convertible. I even drove that thing up Mt Washington.
Life's tough but somebody needs to take a hit for the team!! Anyway I saw Yawkey Way while in Maine, up near Bar Harbour - hence the question.

As for the other: don't be surprised if Ameet turns two early picks into three quality players.

 

[Mowman]

You thinking what I'm thinking, Batman?

Pretty sure I am

 

[King_Steele]

Jesus Christ Kelly's composure in traffic & one-touch skills. He's like Pendlebury on meth.

If we were to get Kelly + steak knives then I'd love Matt Kennedy. He's a bull but has very good agility for a cave man on horse meat diet.

Kelly & Kennedy for pick 3 & 7.

+1.

I'd do it.

 

[VDS66]

Could you tell me what you are thinking because to me this Fyfe talk doesnt make sense.

Are we overthinking it a bit?

Not sure, Catwoman...