List Mgmt. 2018 Draft, Free Agency & Trade Hypotheticals thread, Part II: Nothing happened!

[Mick Oxlong]

But when will our next pick fall? Late in the third round? The fourth round? So I see the original post's point about being held ransom in this draft. Because to land Blakey we've basically had to surrender any chance at landing any other quality players inside say the top 30. So excusing our lack of trades with the "loading up at the draft" route doesn't really work either, as I wouldn't say prioritising only one kid is "loading up".

In fairness to Masey, he did say ‘sort of’. I can absolutely guarantee we wanted St Kilda’s 1st for Hannebery but we know how that turned out. Clearly St Kilda knew exactly what they were doing and held us over a barrel. This clearly would’ve made a whole lot of difference to our strategy.

I doubt it’ll happen over the coming days (and even weeks) because of the trade and draft period but I will try find out what they were thinking with regard to our strategy. It’s amazing what you learn outside this period as quite a few of you would know.

 

[replicant]

I agree, Langdon move would have been good (ok in your words) however, someone like Finlayson would be perfect...but do those those centimetres make the difference? I mean, literally centimetres.

I agree, i think a few cm are irrelevant, because most of the time in a contest you need to spoil, and you can reach higher with one arm than someone stretching with two for a mark. So a few cm here or there aren't all that important, and Langdon is in the middle of the range. But a lot of people seem pretty hung up on height, so i posted the heights anyway.

 

[RobbieK]

No. The deal lodged with the AFL was Hannebery and 28 for 39 and next years 2nd rounder. Now that’s the equivalent of Hannebery and 28 for 39 and next years 2nd rounder!

No need to be obtuse Mick.

Tell me, if you were going to be satisfied with a trade for Hannebery for a single draft pick, what would that pick be?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

So happy we didn’t waste precious resources on a 3rd tall in Langdon! That’s better news this weekend than The Autumn Sun being a bank builder for the year!

 

[scaryness]

While i think Langdon is an Ok player, I am kind of ok with the idea of not getting him.

We already have:

Grundy (192)
Melican (195)
Aliir (194)
Smith (183)
McVeigh (184)
Rampe (189)
Lloyd (180)
O'Riordan (185)
Marsh (189)
Maibaum (193)

With Ling (183) and Stoddart (184) both recruited as rebounding defenders. I don't really see why we went hard for Langdon (190cm) anyway, he seems a type we already have a lot of.

He would automatically be better than Marsh; Grundy/Smith/McVeigh are all done after this next season; Maibaum is a complete unknown at this point until he plays a single game at a minimum; and O'Riordan and Lloyd aren't comparable to Langdon.

That leaves Melican, Aliir and Rampe. Langdon would not have hurt.

 

[bungee]

Not agro at you by the way B52 but just wish we would direct the bulk of our angst at the AFL for the way they manipulate the rules to create a certain outcome.

B52 deserved to be told the truth as only you can dish it out Ted. Like an eskimo pie. Cold, hard and in your face.

 

[bungee]

Don't worry about trade pickups. It's often the under-performing teams who pay overs trying to snag some big names. They win the trade season like they win the preseason. It fills their fans with hot air and optimism for the year ahead. Half the players simply want to go back to Melbourne and are happy if someone stumps up stupid money. That's just the way it works. It happens every year and usually they fail, then their cap hits the ceiling, their loyal underpaid players get pissed off with the discrepancy in payments and they lose at least as much talent as they gain. Then they go broke and cry to the AFL for more money.

We are ahead of the curve. We have all of our required players firmly contracted in place and our cap is well managed. We've filled our coffers with good young talent, we've looked after them and we've had them train under some of the best development coaches in the league. The best of them have fought their way into the seniors and, courtesy of a huge injuries list in 2018, we've got a lot more games into them than we might have hoped. So much so that we've quietly introduced a team's worth of players in the past few years. Many of them will be putting forward a case for more senior games next year and then there are the returning players like Mills, Reid, Naismith, Smith etc. And don't forget we have young Blakey coming our way. Not to mention what another season will mean for guys like McCartin and Ronke.

I won't be disappointed if we don't recruit any more players this trade period. We have most, if not all, of who we need to win the flag in 2019 and they're already wearing red and white.

 

[TheMase]

But when will our next pick fall? Late in the third round? The fourth round? So I see the original post's point about being held ransom in this draft. Because to land Blakey we've basically had to surrender any chance at landing any other quality players inside say the top 30. So excusing our lack of trades with the "loading up at the draft" route doesn't really work either, as I wouldn't say prioritising only one kid is "loading up".

I am trying to work out where “loading up” came from? Doesn’t seem to have any relation to anything I’ve quoted. We also likely have more picks than we started with, so really not getting your point here at all.

Our next pick will fall early in the third round, which would be late second if not for free agency.

So, I don’t really follow.

We started with 13, 33, 38. So we never started with the opportunity to land other players in the top 30...

We traded 13 for 26, 28 and 40.
We then effectively traded Hanners for pick 39 as well as transferred that pick 28 into a 2019 second round, likely to be early to mid 20s.

After using 26 & 33 to take Blakey leaving us with 39, 40, 41 (with a downgrade of 38 I think).

So, ignoring pick 39 from the Hannebery trade, effectively we have:

Blakey rated pick 7 for 13 (so a 6 place upgrade), 7 place downgrade from 33 to 40 as well as pick 41.

So in essence we picked up an extra draft pick during the points trade, an extra during the Hannebery trade and transferred a second we’d otherwise waste in the Blakey trade into 2019 giving us a 7 place downgrade in 2nd / 3rd round selection (33 to 40) and a 6 place upgrade in the first round (13 to 7).

So we are likely to have more draft picks in that area than we would otherwise have. Where we are held to “ransom” is if there is a rogue bid, but we are covered up to around pick 4 before it has any real negative impact on what our drafting.

I still don’t really get the point. I think we have improved our middle drafting position as well as getting Blakey and improving our 2019 position.

 

[bungee]

No, I’m not missing anything. So what would you like to send Mills away for? I mean, following the season he had and according to your logic...it’d be peanuts!

Even if Hanners pulls it together for a couple more years he's not going to produce it for as long as Mills will. Guys like Mills and Jones will be our midfield veterans one day, leading our young talent into battle long after Hanners is gone. Hanners is worth more to the Saints. They offered a long contract as they need his experience and leadership now. Even a 2018 version of Hanners will be good for them.

 

[bungee]

No need to be obtuse Mick.

Tell me, if you were going to be satisfied with a trade for Hannebery for a single draft pick, what would that pick be?

Robbie, it might be worth explaining for some posters who might not have picked up, that you've based your equivalence on AFL official point values for draft picks where 39-28=54 (or thereabouts).

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Points-draft-value.pdf

 

[sataris]

I agree, i think a few cm are irrelevant

I wish this was true.

 

[RobbieK]

Robbie, it might be worth explaining for some posters who might not have picked up, that you've based your equivalence on AFL official point values for draft picks where 39-28=54 (or thereabouts).

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/Points-draft-value.pdf

Yes, or for easy comparison you can use this site: https://www.draftguru.com.au/pick-value-calculator#

 

[BloodySwan]

It's worth noting we can go into the draft with as many open spaces we have on our list. We currently have 6 picks with points, I believe we need to trade/delist 2 more players. Newman will probably be one of them

 

[kickthething]

It's worth noting we can go into the draft with as many open spaces we have on our list. We currently have 6 picks with points, I believe we need to trade/delist 2 more players. Newman will probably be one of them

....and Marsh may be the other.

 

[TheMase]

It's worth noting we can go into the draft with as many open spaces we have on our list. We currently have 6 picks with points, I believe we need to trade/delist 2 more players. Newman will probably be one of them

Out: Tippett, Foote, Towers, Hannebery, Rohan
In: Clarke

So net 4.

Then we only carry 38 senior players of a maximum of 40. Thus we already have 6 senior list spots as it currently stands and don’t require further delistings

Ronke will get upgraded at the end of the National draft with our final selection.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

You have failed to address how having our CoLA stripped immediately & the trading ban applied immediately has affected any previous recruiting decisions & future decisions up until this point.
Not even mentioned it yet you say "We have *****d ourselves with long contracts with a minority of players." I don't understand the anger & ridicule directed at the club when considering all this we haven't become the begging basket case the AFL intended us to become when the trade ban was applied.
I don't think you actually understand how much not being able to bring in a player we may have targeted, has affected us & having to enter trade week suddenly having both hands tied, by Mike Thatfatprick which didn't allow us to be our usual selves at the trade table. We instantly had the ability to bring in talent taken from us. The fact that the Players Association were the only people to raise it with the AFL suggests that some players were affected by the nonsensical decision.

When you listen to this:


And read this:
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/1d0c3de435a6c2450c888574055be73c

how could any Swan supporter choose to take aim at their club before addressing the disgraceful & illegal trade ban applied to us in order to have us hit rock bottom until we came back grovelling to the AFL.

That we haven't grovelled back & instead made a Grand Final in 2016 despite all that, it should actually have us more proud & more defiant at standing up for our club instead of choosing to ridicule any 'mistake' or error we've made in hindsight.
I don't get it & I will ALWAYS refer to this trade ban when someone attacks the club & more disappointing is our own supporters who keep repeating the same sooky sh.t when they feel 'embarrassed' that we haven't won a flag.

Just listen to Gilligan & Mike Thatfatprick in those links above & see if can can keep a straight face while ridiculing our club for off field decisions over these last few years since that ban. By all means blame the gameplan & the coach, but you'll find all is directly related to the fact we were forced to bring in young talent from the moment the trade ban was applied & without the ability to trade in quality mature players, as we did with Mummy, JPK, McGlynn & Jetts in 2010, we were always going to be in a rebuild mode while staying reasonably competitive. Now that we have done. We have been inconsistent in games & from week to week, but we have in no way embarrassed ourselves as a club & certainly don't deserve ridicule from our own supporter base knowing what went down once we recruited Buddy.
Yes we have made mistakes no doubt but only because we had to have a crack with what we had.

Of course COLA and the trade ban decisions buggered us up. Separate issues. My point related to the need for performance based contracts, particularly among the higher paid players. Blaming everything on the AFL is avoidance of issues within the Club's control.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

B52 deserved to be told the truth as only you can dish it out Ted. Like an eskimo pie. Cold, hard and in your face.

Really? Some fans are like the proud mum watching the military parade,"Look. My son is the only one marching in step."'

 

[HighReeve]

Ronke will get upgraded at the end of the National draft with our final selection.

again, not how it works.
Rookies are just upgraded. nothing to do with draft picks anymore.

 

[BloodySwan]

Out: Tippett, Foote, Towers, Hannebery, Rohan
In: Clarke

So net 4.

Then we only carry 38 senior players of a maximum of 40. Thus we already have 6 senior list spots as it currently stands and don’t require further delistings

Ronke will get upgraded at the end of the National draft with our final selection.

Rookie upgrades count as taking a spot on the senior list before the draft I believe

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Nice to see the Bloodies in agreement!

 

[Andyjh]

So what can we expect to get for Newman? Do the Blues have a 3rd or 4th rounder to offer?

 

[Caj]

I don't think anyone really cares that we missed on Langdon as a player (or Duryea now as well), what is concerning is that we have targeted a heap of B graders and haven't been able to land any of them.

At the same time, the Hawks look like landing 2 a grade midfielders and an ex first round draft pick

What is going on?

 

[Caj]

So what can we expect to get for Newman? Do the Blues have a 3rd or 4th rounder to offer?

Nothing - if he leaves it will be as a delisted free agent

 

[BloodySwan]

So what can we expect to get for Newman? Do the Blues have a 3rd or 4th rounder to offer?

Matt Kennedy

 

[doona]

what is concerning is that we have targeted a heap of B graders and haven't been able to land any of them.

I don't think it is concerning at all when the player stays at their own club.

It is not like a player we targeted changed clubs or chose GWS over us.