List Mgmt. 2019 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals Thread

[The King!]

Do you think that is worth the gamble?


I'm happy with extending Horse. We haven't seen his ability to rebuild so to speak. I haven't seen many games this year but judging by our percentage we weren't blown away a whole bunch so some changes to personal could fix the gameplan.

Thought tbh I've always had the thought you have the game plan to match the team that you have to put on the park. No point kicking long down the line going for contested marks if you don't have players built for that, you know?

we will derail the thread


whats the word on a potential daniher contract

presume if we get him we sign him beyond the year

 

[The King!]

to each their own?

yeah of course but theres some things that are reasonably obvious

 

[Millky95]

Bingo. It is a gamble. The issue now is how much of our future we are prepared to gamble?

First rounder and a 2nd with hopefully a future 3rd or 4th coming back. If Papley goes I'd rather us use that pick

we will derail the thread


whats the word on a potential daniher contract

presume if we get him we sign him beyond the year

Would have to be minimum 4. 4 with a probably trigger for an extra 2.

 

[tombomb]

It's also tough to put a value on Daniher not only from a trading perspective but from a club and results perspective.

I know a lot of people tell me that Tippett and Franklin are failures for the Swans but I'd disagree (Tippett more unfortunate case) particularly on Franklin because whilst we may not have won flags, membership has risen, the number 23 has been one of if not the most bought number since he arrived, individual moments of brilliance we got to see a Swans player make and games where he just won it himself.

I'm not going to say we should sell the farm to get Daniher but if we can get him on the park and he performs, we won't remember what we gave up for him we will just remember the moments he gave us as a Swan

This is the whole point though. I think everyone wants Daniher on our team, i mean its not like he is going to make our team worse.

But what are we going to have to give up to get him?!

Is this the right time for our list to be trading high draft picks for a bloke with massive red flags around injury.

When essendon show up tomorrow and say they want pick 5 and Florent or Dawson ... Can we walk away then?

Cause this is what is going to happen.

 

[SSwans2011]

yeah of course but theres some things that are reasonably obvious

I thought the 67 goals and mark of the year in his last full season while playing resting ruck was a dead giveaway of his talent personally. Could be wrong though.

 

[caesar88]

yeah of course but theres some things that are reasonably obvious

His talent isn't just reasonably obvious, it's very obvious.

Just doesn't do a lot with it. My issue isn't with his injuries (though that should be the point we emphasise to get the best deal possible in this trade). My issue is that I've just seen too many poor games from him to believe he warrants the "superstar" tag and the high price we're likely to pay as a byproduct of that tag.

 

[SSwans2011]

His talent isn't just reasonably obvious, it's very obvious.

Just doesn't do a lot with it. My issue isn't with his injuries (though that should be the point we emphasise to get the best deal possible in this trade). My issue is that I've just seen too many poor games from him to believe he warrants the "superstar" tag and the high price we're likely to pay as a byproduct of that tag.

Buddy has quiet games too but you tend to make up for those when you kick 60+ in a season. Especially if you're offering something in the ruck too.

 

[caesar88]

Buddy has quiet games too but you tend to make up for those when you kick 60+ in a season. Especially if you're offering something in the ruck too.

Buddy's well into his 30s now, he's entitled to some quiet games.

But there's a difference between quiet games and poor games. When we signed Buddy it was easy to be excited by him because I think he'd played probably no more than 5-7 genuinely poor games in his whole career up to that point. Performances where you just thought, gee he's really off today.

Daniher has had many like that. He's nowhere near as consistent and his extremes are just way too disparate to get excited about. If it was a full season of 2017-esque footy, then you'd be ecstatic wouldn't you. But that would also require ignoring the other seasons that have book-ended that year.

If we were a different team at a different stage then maybe I'd be all for the risk because of the potential reward but after Tippett, and after Rohan, and after Reid, and two grand finals where we had passengers who were unreliable, I am just tired of having blokes in the team who you never know what you're going to get from them. I think that would be the case with Daniher. Going into a final, will we get serious, competitive Daniher who is nailing his long bombs off one step, or will we get taking-the-piss Daniher who chuckles after he misses simple set shots? If we gave up a late first round pick for him and he was on about 700k a year, I'd be willing to take that risk. But at what we're gonna be expected to pay? Pass.

 

[tombomb]

People really need to stop using the phrase 'superstar' to describe Daniher. He had one good season where he kicked 65 goals in 23 games.

His average Champion data ranking points across his career is 66! Just as a comparison - Sam Reid is 68.

We arent getting a 25 year old who could be the next Buddy if he gets fit. He is tall and left footed, that is where the comparisons end.

The best current comparison is Jesse Hogan. Good player, sometimes looks really good, sometimes looks really bad - constantly injured. I actually think when fit, Hogan is a better player.

But giving up really high picks for players like that is something that really dumb clubs do.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Buddy's well into his 30s now, he's entitled to some quiet games.

But there's a difference between quiet games and poor games. When we signed Buddy it was easy to be excited by him because I think he'd played probably no more than 5-7 genuinely poor games in his whole career up to that point. Performances where you just thought, gee he's really off today.

Daniher has had many like that. He's nowhere near as consistent and his extremes are just way too disparate to get excited about. If it was a full season of 2017-esque footy, then you'd be ecstatic wouldn't you. But that would also require ignoring the other seasons that have book-ended that year.

If we were a different team at a different stage then maybe I'd be all for the risk because of the potential reward but after Tippett, and after Rohan, and after Reid, and two grand finals where we had passengers who were unreliable, I am just tired of having blokes in the team who you never know what you're going to get from them. I think that would be the case with Daniher. Going into a final, will we get serious, competitive Daniher who is nailing his long bombs off one step, or will we get taking-the-piss Daniher who chuckles after he misses simple set shots? If we gave up a late first round pick for him and he was on about 700k a year, I'd be willing to take that risk. But at what we're gonna be expected to pay? Pass.

Dont forget the hell he has been through at Essendon, lets see what he can do with a much more stable environment behind him.

 

[caesar88]

Dont forget the hell he has been through at Essendon, lets see what he can do with a much more stable environment behind him.

Well that would be the hope and of course I'd be rooting for him, he's chosen to be a Swan so I'd want him to prove me wrong. But what's happened in the past can't be changed and his value is what it is. We shouldn't over-rate it.

 

[Opts]

I feel it's pretty hard to argue with his talent at this point, it's really just down to his body, but fair enough...

He's a KPF with an average of 1.8 goals a game. Membrey is better than him at this stage and Membrey doesn't get injured.

 

[SSwans2011]

People really need to stop using the phrase 'superstar' to describe Daniher. He had one good season where he kicked 62 goals in 23 games.

His average Champion data ranking points across his career is 66! Just as a comparison - Sam Reid is 68.

We arent getting a 25 year old who could be the next Buddy if he gets fit. He is tall and left footed, that is where the comparisons end.

The best current comparison is Jesse Hogan. Good player, sometimes looks really good, sometimes looks really bad - constantly injured. I actually think when fit, Hogan is a better player.
tha
But giving up really high picks for players like that is something that really dumb clubs do.

Sorry how did both of them go in their last close to full seasons (Daniher 2017 vs Hogan 2018)? Daniher only kicked 20 more goals and made the AA team while rucking. That's all he has over Hogan.

Buddy's well into his 30s now, he's entitled to some quiet games.

But there's a difference between quiet games and poor games. When we signed Buddy it was easy to be excited by him because I think he'd played probably no more than 5-7 genuinely poor games in his whole career up to that point. Performances where you just thought, gee he's really off today.

Daniher has had many like that. He's nowhere near as consistent and his extremes are just way too disparate to get excited about. If it was a full season of 2017-esque footy, then you'd be ecstatic wouldn't you. But that would also require ignoring the other seasons that have book-ended that year.

If we were a different team at a different stage then maybe I'd be all for the risk because of the potential reward but after Tippett, and after Rohan, and after Reid, and two grand finals where we had passengers who were unreliable, I am just tired of having blokes in the team who you never know what you're going to get from them. I think that would be the case with Daniher. Going into a final, will we get serious, competitive Daniher who is nailing his long bombs off one step, or will we get taking-the-piss Daniher who chuckles after he misses simple set shots? If we gave up a late first round pick for him and he was on about 700k a year, I'd be willing to take that risk. But at what we're gonna be expected to pay? Pass.

That's not actually true. Buddy had plenty of quiet games prior to coming to the Swans. You just need to look at the statistics to confirm that. He was also playing in a bloody good side while Daniher played in an Essendon team with horrific culture, including the farcical 2016 season, which was actually a highly impressive season from him all things considered.

Reid and Rohan are funny points to bring up because if anything it goes to show that draft picks (and high draft picks in Rohan's case) are overrated. Rohan at pick 6 vs Daniher for pick 5 and 25? I know who I'm taking.

 

[Mick Oxlong]

Agree with most of that except Menzel and Ronke. Menzel isn't a small forward. Ronke is but not very good at it. If Papley goes we'd have to look at someone like Taylor.

Would we, why?

Menzel and Ronke kick goals, that’s all they have to do.

 

[scaryness]

People really need to stop using the phrase 'superstar' to describe Daniher. He had one good season where he kicked 62 goals in 23 games.

His average Champion data ranking points across his career is 66! Just as a comparison - Sam Reid is 68.

We arent getting a 25 year old who could be the next Buddy if he gets fit. He is tall and left footed, that is where the comparisons end.

The best current comparison is Jesse Hogan. Good player, sometimes looks really good, sometimes looks really bad - constantly injured. I actually think when fit, Hogan is a better player.

But giving up really high picks for players like that is something that really dumb clubs do.

I'll take Hogan too please

 

[SSwans2011]

He's a KPF with an average of 1.8 goals a game. Membrey is better than him at this stage and Membrey doesn't get injured.

Yeah, but Daniher's average is weighed down by his 2014 and 2015 seasons when he was 20 and 21, and 2016 when Essendon were fielding a team of reserves. Hardly a reasonable comparison.

At a more matrue age of 23 in a much better side he showed what he's capable of.

 

[Punts]

Bennell also still coming

 

[Punts]

Mccartin will train the pre season in defence

 

[The King!]

Mccartin will train the pre season in defence

geez your source is chatty

 

[SSwans2011]

Mccartin will train the pre season in defence

I like this. I think people wanted to see him as a forward because young forward prospects are more exciting than defenders, but he could be our McGovern as a KPD.

 

[Mick Oxlong]

Mccartin will train the pre season in defence

Like Mills trains mids?

 

[dosser]

Bennell also still coming

I will never* doubt you again, Punts.



* I probably will.

 

[caesar88]

Sorry how did both of them go in their last close to full seasons (Daniher 2017 vs Hogan 2018)? Daniher only kicked 20 more goals and made the AA team while rucking. That's all he has over Hogan.

That's not actually true. Buddy had plenty of quiet games prior to coming to the Swans. You just need to look at the statistics to confirm that. He was also playing in a bloody good side while Daniher played in an Essendon team with horrific culture, including the farcical 2016 season, which was actually a highly impressive season from him all things considered.

Reid and Rohan are funny points to bring up because if anything it goes to show that draft picks (and high draft picks in Rohan's case) are overrated. Rohan at pick 6 vs Daniher for pick 5 and 25? I know who I'm taking.

Hogan's averaged more goals and have you forgotten which club he played for most of his career? I'd argue Melbourne's culture is just as bad as Essendon's.

And you missed my point re Buddy. He had quiet games, but very rarely poor ones where he actually played terribly. By his second year, he was averaging 2 goals a game, in his third year he kicked over 70 goals, and in his fourth year, he kicked over 100 goals in a premiership season. He'd then kick over 60 goals in his next six seasons. That is consistency. You don't get numbers like that by playing poor games. You've gotta have more going for you than one season, two years ago, to warrant the price Essendon will be expecting us to pay.

 

[The King!]

I will never* doubt you again, Punts.



* I probably will.

now im wondering how close we came to dusty last year

 

[The King!]