Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion II

[Mezzoculo]

I could babble on about things that 99% wont happen

Well, that's what BigFooty is for.

 

[Blutopia]

Why? If we are to engage in some 'good will' that nets an everybody wins scenario, why is it a bad deal for Carlton, if indeed we'd be happy to trade the #9 for the #15 and #20, which I now feel makes for perfect sense?

Is it the pick in the 30's next year that you consider to be too much for Martin in the scheme of things?

Good Will is meant to go both ways Harks.

GC can get stuffed. I live on GC and want them to be a success for the good of growing the game. I have been to games to support them. Until Cochrane and the wanks running the show up here are gone - I will only watch the Blues play them.

Get Martin for free and let them put their tale between their legs and learn from it next time.

 

[Blutopia]

He may well be but ultimately, looking at it this way:
In: Martin, 15, 20
Out: 9 and a future second

Would we really be that mad?

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I think it would be a bit mad IMO.

This could end up quite possibly (and most likely) being pick 9 and pick 28-34 next year - total points likely between 2011 - 2146.

GC put up pick 15 and 20 this year. Total points 2024.

Every other trade I have seen involves clubs trading to a better pick giving up more points than the club taking lower picks. So why would we risk losing out on points?

Although I think our second rounder next year will be after 34 (with about 5 or 6 academy bids/FS bids by this stage, I still think we have no reason to make this trade. Would be happy to give pick 43 this year so we know we win on points, but not next years second.

 

[BlueJet]

I think it would be a bit mad IMO.

This could end up quite possibly (and most likely) being pick 9 and pick 28-34 next year - total points likely between 2011 - 2146.

GC put up pick 15 and 20 this year. Total points 2024.

Every other trade I have seen involves clubs trading to a better pick giving up more points than the club taking lower picks. So why would we risk losing out on points?

Although I think our second rounder next year will be after 34 (with about 5 or 6 academy bids/FS bids by this stage, I still think we have no reason to make this trade. Would be happy to give pick 43 this year so we know we win on points, but not next years second.

I appreciate where you're coming from but IMO points are largely irrelevant unless we're discussing drafting academy players etc - even still there is a larger than usual amount of players tied to academies likely to be drafted early next year.
This option would allow the club to get in two talented youngsters from a less compromised draft.
To clarify, I'd rather hold our existing pick and hope a Kemp, Stephens, Williams or Robertson is available, I can also see the upside of making such a move.

 

[murphster]

We also reestab

In the deal that Harker put forward, it is 9 and a later pick for 15 & 20 - we would still secure Martin via the PSD, the benefit for Carlton is that we'd get two cracks at a reasonably even draft while GCS would secure the top 10 pick that they're after.
While GCS were frustrating during the trade period, I'd like to think that we can put emotion to the side when making decisions that can strengthen our squad.

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We also reestablish a good relationship with GC going forward which could pay dividends later down the track when there other young players like Rowell come out of contract and are looking to move back to Melbourne, we have to play the long game with GC especially with all the young players they will be bringing in with the aide of the AFL assistance package, it’s just smart business.

 

[rog1995]

Why? If we are to engage in some 'good will' that nets an everybody wins scenario, why is it a bad deal for Carlton, if indeed we'd be happy to trade the #9 for the #15 and #20, which I now feel makes for perfect sense?

Is it the pick in the 30's next year that you consider to be too much for Martin in the scheme of things?

Gold Coast had their chance. Now tell them to get stuffed.

 

[murphster]

As I said in my earlier post our options are enormous in terms of what we could do with pick 9 or even if we end up using pick 9 we still have a lot of options to get back into the draft either later in the first round if a player we really rate slides, ala Stocker last year, or we can easily trade back into the second round during the draft or more likely between day1 and day2 to secure a player we want, for me that would be Williams, or a bit later my personal favourite in this draft Kossie Pickett who I would love to get a late 20s or early 30s pick to be sure we can secure him. Either way it is going to be edge of your seats stuff come Draft day for us Blues supporters as we wait to see what rabbit SOS and the boys will pull out of the proverbial hat for us this year.

 

[gbatman]

I'm very much in the Gold Coast can get stuffed and get nothing for Martin boat. We offered them a fair trade and they rejected it. They showed they don't care losing him for nothing. I am not giving the Gold Coast a prime draft pick for nothing and that's what it is, we get Martin for nothing. We take a 2020 second round pick to the draft/trade period next year which will bare fruit and we use pick 9 to draft a super talented player. Not sure we should be trading 9 for two later first round pick. I don't know if this is the draft for that. Timing is absolutely perfect to draft a really talented small forward type and pick 9 in many drafts is a good pick for that.

Trading pick 9 would want to heavily favor Carlton, it's ours to give away. Last year we traded future pick 4 for current pick 9 and pick 19. I would consider a similar trade unless there's a really good young player there again. I think to warrant trading it there must be a pick really close to it involved or a future first plus something in the second round and I don't think we will get that. Would hate to throw it away for two mediocre players.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

There's similar possibilities with Port for 12 & 18 and Geelong 14 & 17.

 

[gbatman]

Seeing Dylan Buckley and Rice get cut from their respective clubs and Kerr being let go, I am hopeful all would be offered a spot at the NBs

I would love to see the Northern Blues actively go after Carlton affiliated players, skill depending obviously. I think it would really build a sense of the NBs being a part of the club and a bit of romance as well.

Could this work long term?

This would be great but it just never seems to happen. I think the money playing in premier competitions around the state is far greater than VFL.

 

[Foucault1989]

Gold coast can get stuffed. I'd rather dangle 9 in front of Fremantle and Hawthorn and see what we can shake out of them under the provisio we don't bid on their academy players. For them, not having to bid means they effectively get to bundle multiple late picks for a top 15 player in the draft. They might be happy to throw us a juicy bone or two...either this year or next. We don't look anything as we would get the same player anyway. That makes way more sense than dealing with the devil.

 

[HARKER]

Given Newnes and Martin become CFC players (which they will) we'll have the following -

Main List - 36
Rookie A - 3
Rookie B - 1

Hard to see us reeling in another DFA, so dependent on what we do with the #9, it seems to me as though we're more likely than not to finish with a 40/4/1 split. If we do split that #9, it's almost definite that we'll finish up with 40 on the main list.
We may yet delist or cut out Lang or Polson, but that all seems a little too late right now.

Whichever way though we should have another 5 players joining the club over the course of the next few weeks.

 

[DangerousD]

This would be great but it just never seems to happen. I think the money playing in premier competitions around the state is far greater than VFL.

Any idea what the top earners in the VFL make?

 

[Red Bull]

Gold coast can get stuffed. I'd rather dangle 9 in front of Fremantle and Hawthorn and see what we can shake out of them under the provisio we don't bid on their academy players. For them, not having to bid means they effectively get to bundle multiple late picks for a top 15 player in the draft. They might be happy to throw us a juicy bone or two...either this year or next. We don't look anything as we would get the same player anyway. That makes way more sense than dealing with the devil.

Very good

 

[JoeyPBLUES]

Any idea what the top earners in the VFL make?

very good question. I was wondering the same. Also do they have a hard cap in the VFL?

 

[Eiffel 65]

Sam Gray still hasn't signed with Port?

This is starting to get interesting.

 

[RoyalParade]

Given Newnes and Martin become CFC players (which they will) we'll have the following -

Main List - 36
Rookie A - 3
Rookie B - 1

Hard to see us reeling in another DFA, so dependent on what we do with the #9, it seems to me as though we're more likely than not to finish with a 40/4/1 split. If we do split that #9, it's almost definite that we'll finish up with 40 on the main list.
We may yet delist or cut out Lang or Polson, but that all seems a little too late right now.

Whichever way though we should have another 5 players joining the club over the course of the next few weeks.

I think we will save a spot for mid year, like we did this year

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Gold coast can get stuffed. I'd rather dangle 9 in front of Fremantle and Hawthorn and see what we can shake out of them under the provisio we don't bid on their academy players. For them, not having to bid means they effectively get to bundle multiple late picks for a top 15 player in the draft. They might be happy to throw us a juicy bone or two...either this year or next. We don't look anything as we would get the same player anyway. That makes way more sense than dealing with the devil.

tbh, I don't give a flying **** who we deal with, so long as it puts us in a stronger position.

 

[bmaurizio]

Correct as long as we improve the playing list and eliminate dead wood that’s the name of the game.

 

[gbatman]

Any idea what the top earners in the VFL make?

I don't but it would be interesting to know.

 

[thylacine60]

tbh, I don't give a flying **** who we deal with, so long as it puts us in a stronger position.

why would anyone donate airborne coitus............?

 

[cfc05]

I've almost convinced myself that this will happen -

CFC give up #9 and a future second for #15 & #20
Carlton get Martin but GC come out looking strong getting the top ten pick they claimed to want along with a future pick they'll tell us they'll need.
Carlton quietly come out with a win. Gold Coast look like they're able to manufacture what they wanted. The AFL are quietly appeased.

Almost as though it's been orchestrated already.

He may well be but ultimately, looking at it this way:
In: Martin, 15, 20
Out: 9 and a future second

Would we really be that mad?

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Both look very similar to my prediction post Trade period closing.

Many on here thought it was laughable/never going to happen/etc.

Not sure if it was simply emotional responses at the time, or now a few journalist have woken up to it, it is starting to become more plausible.

I personally think it would be a huge win win for us, if we don't see one stand out we believe will be available at 9. If we have a handful of players who could go 5-20 for example.

If we do believe the chance to grab the one standout player is live, we would simply keep pick 9. Suspect SOS doesn't love the draft, as he was very open to trading the pick.

 

[cfc05]

They are now in a position where they lose Martin for nothing. They have four outcomes from here:
1. Martin signs a new contract with them (least likely, and outside their control);
2. Trade with Carlton to ensure they get something back, even if minimal.
3. Martin goes to PSD and they match his bid, therefore paying more $$ and having a player who wants to walk.
4. Martion goes to PSD and they allow him to go to Melbourne or Carlton, receive nothing. However send a message to the league we won't be walked on.

Whilst the message piece is strong, I don't believe it materially decreases by doing a pick swap post trade period. The message has been sent, and it is only because we are so close to bottom we can leverage the PSD. Regardless the best material outcome now for GC is scenario 2, get something even if it isn't a "fair deal".

They will sell it to their members by saying they always wanted a first round pick involved, and they now have 3 top 10 picks. They rate the top 10 in this draft better than the next bunch, etc...

From GC's perspective, that is why they do it.

My Theory from 2 weeks ago on why Gold Coast would do it. Seems like many are now agreeing.

Will come down to how much their chairman gets involved, and how the ego/public perception piece is framed. They need to be seen to be winning out of the deal.

 

[Blue__Balls]

We also reestab

We also reestablish a good relationship with GC going forward which could pay dividends later down the track when there other young players like Rowell come out of contract and are looking to move back to Melbourne, we have to play the long game with GC especially with all the young players they will be bringing in with the aide of the AFL assistance package, it’s just smart business.

Building goodwill so Gold Coast play nice when we try and land Rowell in a few years?

Come on Murph, no chance you really believe that.

 

[KnaveyBlue]

If we do decide to deal down 9, Fremantle and Hawthorn are the clubs id be in discussions with ...

I don't think Hawks would be too worried about a bid coming before their Pick 11. Freo on the other hand would be very worried about a bid coming for Henry before their Pick 10.