Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

[estibador]

this whole board has become such a hard slog of late.

i know all the uncertainty has us unsure of what it is we are actually barracking for here.

but i just wish the mods could shut it down for a week.

just so all our brains can have a rest and we can miss each other a little and come back without the need to respond to a snide/stupid/loaded/defeated/hopeless/jaded comment that rubbed us the wrong way five minutes ago.

a little factory reset of sorts.

you know if an alien read this board and i tried to tell it that we were all in on the same purple dog, the alien would call up the mothership and tell them "warm up the thrusters, E.T lied to us there isnt any intelligent life on earth".

can't we all just get along and save the vitriol for those smarmy toffs up the road?

It's improved a lot since Lyon was sacked imo. I was losing interest in this board altogether with all the bitching and negativity before that.

 

[eastfreo75]

They are trying to close the loophole for academy bidding but haven't told us exactly how they'll do that. Typically vague and uninformative as usual from HQ. You also can't trade a pick back to the club you got it from, that one's actually written into the rules in black and white, so it would have to be slightly different picks. The example of course is what Sydney did last year using West Coast to park picks.

Got a feeling that the AFL will just stop a trade if they don't like it.

No rule just vibe.

 

[dropbear101]

It's improved a lot since Lyon was sacked imo. I was losing interest in this board altogether with all the bitching and negativity before that.

when we win a derby the board will transform.

 

[Kapow!!!]

this whole board has become such a hard slog of late.

Of late? Its been a hard slog since Round 10, 2015!

 

[BlueE]

Of late? Its been a hard slog since Round 10, 2015!

Seriously think it was Round 20 2015 when with a full strength team, top of the table position we lost to a depleted WC 104 - 80.

Then L NM, W Mel, L PA, W Syd at home QF, L Haw at home (PF and out).

 

[Kapow!!!]

Seriously think it was Round 20 2015 when with a full strength team, top of the table position we lost to a depleted WC 104 - 80.

Then L NM, W Mel, L PA, W Syd at home QF, L Haw at home (PF and out).

I'm confident it was that first loss of the season. That's where the rot set in for the season and a lot of the negative posters appeared out of the woodwork and the 2 well known Ross Lyon "enthusiasts" were stirring the pot as well. This board became hideous and depressing during that time and has never really recovered. It's just our new normal now I'm afraid.

 

[estibador]

I'm confident it was that first loss of the season. That's where the rot set in for the season and a lot of the negative posters appeared out of the woodwork and the 2 well known Ross Lyon "enthusiasts" were stirring the pot as well. This board became hideous and depressing during that time and has never really recovered. It's just our new normal now I'm afraid.

That was around when I decided to take the rest of the season off from coming on here. At the time this board was ruining my enjoyment of football instead of complementing it like it had previously.

 

[Taylor]

Hopefully we started and ended the tough times with a Fyfe Brownlow

 

[Kapow!!!]

That was around when I decided to take the rest of the season off from coming on here. At the time this board was ruining my enjoyment of football instead of complementing it like it had previously.

My decision to keep reading this board during and since has probably been one of the biggest reasons for my current apathy and general malaise with footy in general.

 

[Spirit Level]

The west seems to be parading Henry around and saying we're going to need to pay a premium for him.

I wonder if they would be sweeping him under the rug if he was a west coast nga prospect so they didnt have to pay a premium?

 

[Taylor]

Saw the Cameron brothers last night having a good time since we are speaking of WC NGAs

 

[Taylor]

St Kilda delisting their #1 draft pick. Unlucky.

Puts our debate about where Henry for in perspective. Burning a pick #1 isn't going to happen.

 

[nurries]

The west seems to be parading Henry around and saying we're going to need to pay a premium for him.

I wonder if they would be sweeping him under the rug if he was a west coast nga prospect so they didnt have to pay a premium?

Of course they would. They are a slime run paper. It is obvious for all to see. Even some people I know that follow the slime can’t believe the bias

 

[Ghost Pig]

The west seems to be parading Henry around and saying we're going to need to pay a premium for him.

I wonder if they would be sweeping him under the rug if he was a west coast nga prospect so they didnt have to pay a premium?

So much this. Twomey has impressive performers at the combine nudging him out to pick 16 only four days ago and the worst coincidentally decide he's moved up firmly into top 10 calculations.

I swear they do it just to rile us up for shih tzu and giggles.

 

[Purpletown]

Would any club be influenced by what is written in a provincial local rag like the Worst? Just feeding the locals the usual low brow stuff they churn out by making stuff up and quoting rumors from the likes of Mr Crumpets and Ginger Megs.
We could well come out looking ok if LH is bid on where most of the professional commentary has him going in the draft (10 - 15)
The Worst are just passing wind.

 

[Superkoops]

I very very highly doubt Henry will be bid at 3. That is dramatic overdrive. He has for quite sometime been around the 8-15 range.

Most draft experts have rated him around 12. He may rise on the experts list to top 10. Melb and Carl in top 10 seem to be showing increasing interest. Whether that translates to a bid time will tell.

The most likely bids will be 8 (Melb), 9 (Carl), 11 (Hawks), 12 (Port) or 13 (WB).

Best options for us is to get a pick in front of 8 or a pick after 13 (whilst upgrading our third pick) or just upgrade our third pick.

If we end up doing nothing we’re confident that he will be bid after 10. Prob being is he will cost a lot more than the combined pts of 23/59/70 and we go into deficit for 2020 1st round pick.

We trade up 10 into the top 6 again a very likely top 12 bid will cost a lot more than 23/59/70. Again go into deficit for 2020 1st pick.

Best option however that is done is to improve our third pick. That could even be on draft night.

10+22>14+17; or
22 + 2020 2nd (Melb), 69 > 16, 55

Go in with either:
7,14,17,58,69; or
7,10,16,55,58 (but we lose one of the 2020 2nds)

 

[MadMundy]

It's real simple for me, I just don't bother reading any garage article that The West attempts to release. The only somewhat decent journalist in that group is Mark Duffield, and if it's not from him, I don't waste my time. It's just a whole lot easier.

 

[Dockernut]

So much this. Twomey has impressive performers at the combine nudging him out to pick 16 only four days ago and the worst coincidentally decide he's moved up firmly into top 10 calculations.

I swear they do it just to rile us up for shih tzu and giggles.

Oh no doubt that barring Duff they’re a pack of campaigners.

As far as Melbs and Carltank are concerned I wonder how much is genuine interest and how much is a strategic bid to make us go early and use up a pick. I mean Ian Hill was a terrific small fwd prospect going into last year’s draft and he slid all the way to GWS.

 

[Jebus18]

Can we get the same picks back.
How about 6 for the 2 2020 picks, 10 for their 2020 first + second?

This is what i was getting at, trade our 2 2020 2nds for 6 and once a bid for Green comes in trade 10 for gws 2020 1st

Net result is 10 and 2 2020 2nds for 6 and 2020 1st, both teams get there nga players and still get a top 10 pick on top

 

[maf303]

OK, I think I've calculated this right using the points, 20% rule to match and carry over points to move up in the draft. This is to get Henry or maybe someone else. I have assumed live bidding.. and no movements prior..

Using pick 10
If Melb bid 8 -- We can match with 10 and our 22 moves up to 18 So we have Picks 7,Henry, 18, 58 69,79,83
If Carl bid 9 -- We can match with 10 and our 22 moves up to 15 So we have Picks 7, Henry, 15, 58,69,79.83

Using pick 22
If Hawks bid 11 -- We use pick 22, 58 and 69(these go/move to end of draft 88?) So we have Picks 7.10. Henry, 83 plus 3 more at end.
If Port bid 12 We use pick 22 and 58(both move to end) So we have 7,10, Henry, 69,79,83 plus 2 at end.
If WB bid 13 WE use pick 22 and 58 moves to 70 so we have 7,10, Henry, 69,70,83 plus 2 at end.


I am a little unsure about this Example, if lets say Port bids 12 at the start of the Draft, can we bid the 10 and improve the 22 to 13?

or do we have to use our "NEXT available pick" 7 for Henry and improve pick 10 to pick 5? this is the 20% rule which surely can't be used in this situation.. Unless its a loophole?

or can we use the next available pick after 12.... ie the using pick 22 example above.

Or maybe only we can put a bid at the start of the Draft as He is one of our Academy Players

Also on the Bidding. Can there be a bidding war back and forth(bid, then bid again) ... or is it put your best bid and just have to beat it once.

 

[Clems Knee]

OK, I think I've calculated this right using the points, 20% rule to match and carry over points to move up in the draft. This is to get Henry or maybe someone else. I have assumed live bidding.. and no movements prior..

Using pick 10
If Melb bid 8 -- We can match with 10 and our 22 moves up to 18 So we have Picks 7,Henry, 18, 58 69,79,83
If Carl bid 9 -- We can match with 10 and our 22 moves up to 15 So we have Picks 7, Henry, 15, 58,69,79.83

Using pick 22
If Hawks bid 11 -- We use pick 22, 58 and 69(these go/move to end of draft 88?) So we have Picks 7.10. Henry, 83 plus 3 more at end.
If Port bid 12 We use pick 22 and 58(both move to end) So we have 7,10, Henry, 69,79,83 plus 2 at end.
If WB bid 13 WE use pick 22 and 58 moves to 70 so we have 7,10, Henry, 69,70,83 plus 2 at end.


I am a little unsure about this Example, if lets say Port bids 12 at the start of the Draft, can we bid the 10 and improve the 22 to 13?

or do we have to use our "NEXT available pick" 7 for Henry and improve pick 10 to pick 5? this is the 20% rule which surely can't be used in this situation.. Unless its a loophole?

or can we use the next available pick after 12.... ie the using pick 22 example above.

Or maybe only we can put a bid at the start of the Draft as He is one of our Academy Players

Also on the Bidding. Can there be a bidding war back and forth(bid, then bid again) ... or is it put your best bid and just have to beat it once.

For first round picks, the left over points can not be used to improve the next pick. So it doesn’t matter if the bid is 8 or 9; 10 will still disappear and 22 will stay the same.
Also, a club doesn’t have the choice of matching a bid with a different pick; it must be the next highest bid that the matching club has.
In your example, Port Adelaide can only make their bid for an NGA player when their pick comes around. That negates your idea of a bidding war.

Hope that helps. I spent quite a bit of time reading Lore’s excellent resource in the sticky section of the D&T board.

 

[Danny82]

For first round picks, the left over points can not be used to improve the next pick. So it doesn’t matter if the bid is 8 or 9; 10 will still disappear and 22 will stay the same.
Also, a club doesn’t have the choice of matching a bid with a different pick; it must be the next highest bid that the matching club has.
In your example, Port Adelaide can only make their bid for an NGA player when their pick comes around. That negates your idea of a bidding war.

Hope that helps. I spent quite a bit of time reading Lore’s excellent resource in the sticky section of the D&T board.

Could Gws have kept its pick 18 and traded out just 12, using pick 18 to match a bid, even if it was pick 5?

 

[Danny82]

I had another though to trade pick 7 to Melbourne for pick 8 and 2020 3rd and promise of no binding on Henry. Then trade pick 8 to Carlton for pick 9, same promise and some late picks to use for points. So end up with pick 9 and 10 and certain of a bid after 10

 

[Taylor]

After discussions with an esteemed colleague, Melbourne can pick the 3rd and 5th best available player in the draft by burning GWS and Fremantle on bids.

Pick #1 - GCS
Pick #2 - GCS
Pick #3 - GWS (matched bid on Green using pick #6)
Pick #4 - Freo (matched bid on Henry using pick #8 (moved back one))
Pick #5 - Melbourne (third best available player)
Pick #6 - Adelaide
Pick #7 - Sydney
Pick #8 - Melbourne (fifth best available player) since both #6 and #7 have been chewed up on academy bids

Sneaky sneaky

 

[Danny82]

After discussions with an esteemed colleague, Melbourne can pick the 3rd and 5th best available player in the draft by burning GWS and Fremantle on bids.

Pick #1 - GCS
Pick #2 - GCS
Pick #3 - GWS (matched bid on Green using pick #6)
Pick #4 - Freo (matched bid on Henry using pick #8 (moved back one))
Pick #5 - Melbourne (third best available player)
Pick #6 - Adelaide
Pick #7 - Sydney
Pick #8 - Melbourne (fifth best available player) since both #6 and #7 have been chewed up on academy bids

Sneaky sneaky

That would explain why Melbourne are asking for such a massive price to trade pick 6 to 3