Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

[Snuffaluphagus]

Would be a hella risky move bidding on Henry with their first though. Clubs have always said they don’t try to be to clever around bids or pick a Mosquito with a pick in the 30s...

 

[Purpellian Anchor]

I always get a laugh watching you guys working out how the Henry pick is going to go down, but for me it is what it is, I’m sure Freo have many contingency plans to get him. We’ll find out in 4 weeks.

Our guys have worked it out really well imop if Henry is our first choice in the draft irrespective of bid. For example if we were prepared to pick him at pick 4 (if we had it and rated him that high) then we are covered all the way. A bid after 7 or after 10 would be all upside under that scenerio.

But we are also covered if they consider him to not be top ten...preferring to select from the talent they believe to be available.

I am really not sure what pick, if we had it, would we use to pick him if no Academy bid bizzo and points discount. Is he good enough to be 3, is he better than Young, Ash, Flanders, Stephens, Robertson, Serong, Kemp, McCasey, Jackson?

 

[eastfreo75]

After discussions with an esteemed colleague, Melbourne can pick the 3rd and 5th best available player in the draft by burning GWS and Fremantle on bids.

Pick #1 - GCS
Pick #2 - GCS
Pick #3 - GWS (matched bid on Green using pick #6)
Pick #4 - Freo (matched bid on Henry using pick #8 (moved back one))
Pick #5 - Melbourne (third best available player)
Pick #6 - Adelaide
Pick #7 - Sydney
Pick #8 - Melbourne (fifth best available player) since both #6 and #7 have been chewed up on academy bids

Sneaky sneaky

Also, pushes our pick 10 to pick 13.

 

[Superkoops]

No one makes any of these promises. You would think though after some nice trading with Melb regarding Mitchie, Balic and now Langdon that we have some Goodwill. The Hogan stuff worked itself out in the end as well. We have nothing with Carlton - aside from Warnock trade, I can’t remember trading with them and Silvani’s going.

At the moment all the clubs are doing due diligence and hence the talk about Henry and Melb/Carl. Prior to trade period Carl were very unlikely to have pick 9. Was supposed to be used for Papley trade. Melbourne only had pick 3 which is too early for Henry. They end up trading for pick 8. Now that Melb/Carl have have picks 8/9 which wasn’t expected pre-draft they are interviewing players rated around that pick which includes Henry.

The West hear that Henry is being spoken too by both clubs and they dramatise it so as to create some panic by Freo supporters and then give themselves a high five.

I have always thought that Carlton was the biggest threat. They also did an early bid on Setterfield (GWS) in 2016.

It will be a tight call as to whether Henry is bid at 9 or 11/12/13. We would obviously match the bid.

The problem being is that we don’t have enough points to cover a bid at 11/12/13. I don’t like the idea of a points deficit from our first selection in 2020.

Im now leaning towards using a 2020 2nd and Pick 22,58,69 to get ourselves a late first rounder (ie pick between 15-18) and a an upgrade of pick 58/69.

The advantage is two-fold. Gives us more points to match a bid around pick 12 and better picks if Henry is bid by Carlton at 9/10.

I’d target Brisbane’s pick 16 and 52 (or 48) as upgrades for 22 and 69 with the cost being Melb 2020 2nd. Brisbane currently don’t have a 2020 2nd. In points terms that is equivalence of pick around 38-41. Melbourne for mine will struggle to make the 8 and prob looking at a pick around 26-30 so win for Brisbane, which is expected when trading up.

We go to the draft with picks 7,10,16,52 (or 48), 58. 16 will push back to at least 17 but 22 will push back to at least 24 bringing the pts difference a little more in our favour.

 

[Taylor]

Would be a hella risky move bidding on Henry with their first though. Clubs have always said they don’t try to be to clever around bids or pick a Mosquito with a pick in the 30s...

If all the players from 3 to 15 are about the same then the downside on bidding early is that they get a player rated 3-15, but the upside is that they get a better choice at their second pick, with only two players no longer there as opposed to four taken between them.

Whether that's worth it, I don't know. Melbourne don't appear to have any karmic justice coming soon in the way of early bids for them.

But should Wiz Jnr nominate Melbourne I hope we bid on him slightly ahead of value to pay them back.

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

One thing you need to remember about The Wests' recent articles is that what we do with our two Top 10 picks and then Henry and where he is bid are the biggest WA-related draft stories right now. Because WCE gave up so much for Kelly, there is literally nothing important to say about them and the draft -- until good old NicNat tweets about it.

The other thing to remember is that you match for Henry at where he is worth. If he is bid at #3 or #4 then good luck to the boy I hope he has a great time in Melbourne or wherever. Wanting to match a too early bid is the very definition of being a sucker.

 

[Clems Knee]

After discussions with an esteemed colleague, Melbourne can pick the 3rd and 5th best available player in the draft by burning GWS and Fremantle on bids.

Pick #1 - GCS
Pick #2 - GCS
Pick #3 - GWS (matched bid on Green using pick #6)
Pick #4 - Freo (matched bid on Henry using pick #8 (moved back one))
Pick #5 - Melbourne (third best available player)
Pick #6 - Adelaide
Pick #7 - Sydney
Pick #8 - Melbourne (fifth best available player) since both #6 and #7 have been chewed up on academy bids

Sneaky sneaky

I can’t see Fremantle matching a bid for Henry at 3. Pick 3 is not worth 7 + 10. So if Melbourne believe he is the third best player in the draft, they should place the bid. If they are trying to get an advantage by forcing a match, they will have egg on their faces (again). I haven’t seen any phantoms that suggest that Henry is the best player behind the Gold Coast pair. It would be an advantage to the other clubs (including us) that rate a dozen or so players as being better than Henry.

If GWS trades their pick 6 to Fremantle, then a pick 3 bid would still wipe out 6 and 7 (so pass). But if the bid came after a matched bid on Green, the pick 6 would be enough to match a pick 4 bid.

 

[Clems Knee]

Also, pushes our pick 10 to pick 13.

No. From what I’ve read, a bid of pick 3 would wipe out both 7 and 10, with the points being carried over to the end of the draft if needed and not downgraded to a later pick.
The example the AFL cites is the Darcy Moore bid (before Collingwood traded their picks). The excess of 249 points were destroyed.
This is a bit different as it is the second first round pick to be used to match a high first round bid. But the AFL is clear with their example that first round points disappear until the end of the draft period, to get rid of deficit points.

 

[Clems Knee]

Could Gws have kept its pick 18 and traded out just 12, using pick 18 to match a bid, even if it was pick 5?

Yes, but they would have lost 18, 40 and 59 for the bid.

 

[blue shark]

All this talk about Henry, nothing has changed as he is still only worth picking after 7. But I would be more
dissapointed if we had the chance but missed on Stephens.
Just seems a logical choice, and Taylor would still be a handy backup if Henry was gone.
It's a pretty even draft after the top 3-5, so we should easily nail it.

 

[Dockernut]

All this talk about Henry, nothing has changed as he is still only worth picking after 7. But I would be more
dissapointed if we had the chance but missed on Stephens.
Just seems a logical choice, and Taylor would still be a handy backup if Henry was gone.
It's a pretty even draft after the top 3-5, so we should easily nail it.

Yep, don’t mind this as a backup plan. I want us to get Stephens above all else.

 

[maccamk]

The West have no draft and trade specialist writers. Their opinion is worth nothing.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Paracleet]

The West. Their opinion is worth nothing.

EFA

 

[arsesmart]

Henry sure ticks a lot of boxes for what we could use though. Reads the game beautifully and makes good decisions, is elusive and quick and skills to transform his decision making into magic.

He's also got a running start on his development and has been around the team a bit. Minimal flight risk to boot.

Be worth matching a pick around the mark and is unlikely to be bid on pre Freo's first pick.

 

[mightymouse75]

Will be super unlucky to use 1 of our first 2 picks. Rest easy freo faithful

 

[Superkoops]

He won’t be bid on at 3. If he is (which he won’t) we just can’t match that bid. We use picks 7/8 and 10/11 on two other very capable players and try to trade Henry back in a few years.

If Melbourne bid on him it will be 8/9 or more likely Carlton’s 9/10, Hawks 11/12 or Port’s 12/13.

 

[E Shed]

I have to say I admire the effort some of you are putting into all these hypothetical situations.
I mostly tap out during October, early November.

 

[eastfreo75]

The West have no draft and trade specialist writers. Their opinion is worth nothing.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

They don’t have any specialists on any subject.

 

[Cobwebs]

If you can believe Cal Twoomey, Henry is safe from pick 3, but Jackson isn't. I hope not for Jacksons sake, looked as though he could have had a good career.

 

[Monument Hills]

Will be super unlucky to use 1 of our first 2 picks. Rest easy freo faithful

that's what Dockers translates to from Sanskrit

 

[Taylor]

If you can believe Cal Twoomey, Henry is safe from pick 3, but Jackson isn't. I hope not for Jacksons sake, looked as though he could have had a good career.

...Melbourne have pick 3

Maybe login with the st Kilda account?

 

[arsesmart]

They don’t have any specialists on any subject.

That's unfair. They have many specialists in bullshitzen. Some with first class honours even.

 

[jusjoshin]

We just need to come out in the Media and say we will match any bid on Henry so bid away. Hopefully scare them off

How would that scare them off? That would encourage them to bid on him no matter what, even if they don't rate him that highly. Even if we didn't rate him that highly, we'd use pick 10? They force us to use an earlier pick to get what we could have had later.

The only strategy that has any equity for us, is giving nothing away. Which is the way we are playing it. Teams will bid on a player where they rate them in the draft, or they will risk losing equity in the draft. Hate drafting is not a viable strategy.

 

[longsuffreosupp]

How would that scare them off? That would encourage them to bid on him no matter what, even if they don't rate him that highly. Even if we didn't rate him that highly, we'd use pick 10? They force us to use an earlier pick to get what we could have had later.

The only strategy that has any equity for us, is giving nothing away. Which is the way we are playing it. Teams will bid on a player where they rate them in the draft, or they will risk losing equity in the draft. Hate drafting is not a viable strategy.

Absolutely. Are teams going to put a bid on Henry if they have a better rated player ready for them to pick? Probably not, it's a bit of a risk.

 

[jusjoshin]

After discussions with an esteemed colleague, Melbourne can pick the 3rd and 5th best available player in the draft by burning GWS and Fremantle on bids.

Pick #1 - GCS
Pick #2 - GCS
Pick #3 - GWS (matched bid on Green using pick #6)
Pick #4 - Freo (matched bid on Henry using pick #8 (moved back one))
Pick #5 - Melbourne (third best available player)
Pick #6 - Adelaide
Pick #7 - Sydney
Pick #8 - Melbourne (fifth best available player) since both #6 and #7 have been chewed up on academy bids

Sneaky sneaky

Only if we match. If we rank him after 6, why would we match? We'd then get the 6th best player, and Melbourne burn pick 3 on a player ranked 8-14. That looks like a win to me.