Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

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go into deficit on 2020, then trade the future first for 15 and 20.
I love the talent in this draft and would rather that we capitalise now than wait for next year. We have a heavy crop of NGA Available next year and 2 early second rounds already. Next year is heavy on KPP. I want another two from this crop.
Henry and any two Gould Sharp River Taylor after would be glorious
interesting note on the deficit, we have the Walker twins to worry about next year I thought though?

Need points next year just as bad as this year I thought, unless I have my years wrong
 
It's effectively 10, 22 and a future 3rd for pick 8 and 49 if they were certain Melbourne or Carlton were going to bid on Henry
EFA

I don't mind it - I just think it was a bit too expensive. Pity we couldn't grab #6 instead of #8 for that cost :) Sounds like a bid for Henry was definitely coming before #10. I think we could have been more creative with live trades but maybe we weren't willing to risk it falling apart under pressure of a 4 minute window.

Good news is we probably don't need to worry about a bid anymore. We'll get two really good players at those picks plus Henry now. And we still have some future currency to work something out in buying back in if we wish - and/or making sure we have enough points to match the Henry bid. There probably isn't as much incentive for clubs to bid for Henry now either - as we are guaranteed to match and doing so won't push anyone up the order in the 2nd round.
 

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I'm not convinced he gets bits on in the top ten.
Well evidently they are. And they are exposed to better info than us.

In any case they don't have to be certain. If they rate it as likely then you need to work out the cheapest deal to mitigate the risk. I"m sure we asked about trading down and this option was the cheapest in terms of lost draft position.
 
2 top 8 picks this year plus Liam Henry is a phenomenal haul, even if we drop a few spots next year. We can still trade up with the plethora of seconds we have next year.

The only thing that I find weird is that we would've had the high picks anyway if we just asked for St Kilda's first for Hill. All the later picks we received during the trade period have gone anyway just to get us in the position we could've been in anyway. St Kilda's first was what we demanded in the first place.
 
Could've held off and bet on no bid until the late teens. There was always the option of pick swaps if a bid came in the 8-9 range.

Know when to hold'em, know when to fold 'em.

Oh well, who knows what intel they might have.
 
Just realised we can't trade our future first now anyway, we are missing a 3rd and 4th rounder for next year, would need to replenish those first under AFL rules.
They'd still let us because we have 2 x 2nd rounders.

edit = pretty sure Hawthorn have the precedent on this. We could also get a future 4th back as part of trading our future 1st ;)
 
10+ 28 for 8 would have been reasonable, why the hell did we throw in the future 4th tied to Carlton, thats super overs ffs


Dees basically replenished the picks they gave up to North to get to pick 8, we got screwed hard
All depends on who leaves Freo after next year. Lose Cerra, Cox, Tabs, we have just future proofed the club.
 
Well evidently they are. And they are exposed to better info than us.

In any case they don't have to be certain. If they rate it as likely then you need to work out the cheapest deal to mitigate the risk. I"m sure we asked about trading down and this option was the cheapest in terms of lost draft position.
It might have as much or more to do with who we think is available at 8 instead of 10.

I was personally happy to gamble on no bid and then just trade 10 for later picks if it came. Ah well.
 

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It's not worth that IMO. Picks have to be valued on a spread of probabilities. We could finish 4th last, that doesn't mean clubs will treat our first round pick next year as equal in value to pick 4. 1) They have to factor in the probability we will finish higher than that into the price. So whatever a club thinks our finish will be, it's that plus x. 2. Future picks are intrinsically worth less, as the future is discounted. I.E. pick 1 today is worth more than pick 1 next year.

If we wanted to trade for 11, it would cost us our future first and a future second minimum.

The only opening we have is for a Stockler like deal where we swap futures with a high finisher live on draft day for pick 18 / 19 or whatever. I don't think those clubs would do it though. I feel, purple goggles on admittedly, we would be rated as too likely to do well and they would lose out.
Still a possibility. Someone like Geelong may see it as worthwhile for their 17 (have 3 picks in top 24). Could help them move up to top 10 for next year and still get two highish picks this year.

Or Richmond who would be pretty certain our first round 2020 will be more valuable than their current 19. It's not like they need that player on the ground next year anyway.
 
Still got 2021 picks to trade

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Yeah thats true, this was the first year where we had banked up some future picks, seems we have reverted to our normal standard of going in short next year, we will likely use 2021 picks to top up next year and so on, it has been a list management option that we have used since it was introduced.


I liked the relaxation of having future picks banked up but looks like we are back at the status quo
 
The only thing that I find weird is that we would've had the high picks anyway if we just asked for St Kilda's first for Hill. All the later picks we received during the trade period have gone anyway just to get us in the position we could've been in anyway. St Kilda's first was what we demanded in the first place.
Not sure about that, Bell said that pick 6 was never on the table.
So we now have no points for Henry but we also have lost future picks.

That Hill trade is looking like a colossal bust now.
We traded away a future pick we weren't likely to use anyway (we have 4 picks before it).
 
You are forgetting one of the two picks we would have traded in would have been absorbed by the bid. It would have been Robertson + Henry + Sharp or Taylor

No, I am not. Like I said, split 10 into Henry (absorbs first part of split) and another pick (likely pushed back a bit to make up points deficit), and 22 is still there. We could have still ended up with 4 players under pick 30. The club must have decided we would be left with picks that couldn't get the good WA talent (i.e. Sharp and Taylor going earlier than most projections).
 
Just realised we can't trade our future first now anyway, we are missing a 3rd and 4th rounder for next year, would need to replenish those first under AFL rules.

Whoever get our future first would probabky be happy to throw in a future 4th to get the deal done. I assume the extra future second will mean we don't need a future third
 
Hey guys,

Smart trading to get in front of a bid from us, which was rumoured on our boards to be coming. If we still bid to keep you honest you end up with picks 7, 8 & 9.

Just coming over to see who Freo is likely to take with the 7/8 pair now? I imagine Robertson is one of them?

intriguing comment...surely you would bid because you genuinely want the player ahead of anyone else? Not sure Carlton will....think this may have more to do with Stephens ...our getting Robertson and Stephens or combination of any two of Young, Robertson, Jackson and Stephens.
 

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Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

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