Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

[CapitalA]

Pretty sure #28 was on traded to Melbourne for the upgrade from #10 to #8.

The details seem pretty expensive for us. We lost #22 and a future 3rd to get a two pick upgrade (#10 to #8), #49 and a future 4th? Am I reading that right?

edit - actually we on traded the 4th as well by the looks. So even more expensive. wtf?

Yeah you're right we have 7, 8, 49, 58. We may be planning to go into defecit with 2020 picks then trade 2020 first after henry bid...

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[Eski3]

The dream of Young, Robertson, Henry and then live trading for Sharp just got a step closer though

 

[Lach72]

So 10 22 and a future 3rd for 8 and 49 ?


Not a great deal tbh

Stay with me here.
What if we have a deal sorted with GC for 15 and 20?

henry gets bid on at 12. We clean out points, then giveGC 2020F1 for 15 and 20.
Profit?

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Unless we knew Carlton were bidding at 9 - which I'd be surprised, that seems like a shit deal to me.

We have nowhere near enough points to match a Henry bid at the moment so we plan on going into heavy deficit next year at this stage.

What makes it bad is that we seem to have paid a big premium to get from 10 to 8, but Crows got away with moving up to 22 for a packet of chips...

 

[Ollo]

Hey guys,

Smart trading to get in front of a bid from us, which was rumoured on our boards to be coming. If we still bid to keep you honest you end up with picks 7, 8 & 9.

Just coming over to see who Freo is likely to take with the 7/8 pair now? I imagine Robertson is one of them?

 

[master bate]

The details seem pretty expensive for us. We lost #22 and a future 3rd to get a two pick upgrade (#10 to #8), #49 and a future 4th? Am I reading that right?

You didn't just move from pick 10 to pick 8, you moved from having to split pick 10 in to a bunch of picks and end up using a 2nd rounder at best to get your 3rd draftee of the night to:

1. Locking in 2 draftees with top 8 picks
2. Being able to pay for Henry with trash picks - and the bonus discount of the price of him going from matching pick 8 to at least matching pick 9 if not later
3. Changing future late round picks that allow you to then use a future first rounder to jump back in and get a 4th first round pick

Your draft just went from:

Pick 7, Henry, picks in the 30+
to
Pick, 7, pick 10, Henry, possibly a 4th first rounder at maybe 15-20

You can now have the draft that truly rounds out your rebuild.

Melbourne - as usual - rolled over and gave a good deal by only getting pick 28 to allow you (along with the Crows little tax) to do all of the above.

 

[wayToGo_]

Geez I hate how AFL.com.au shows trades. Why can't they just show it with the Ins and Outs for each club with trades like these?

 

[Alfonz]

The alternative may well have been pick 7 & Henry, instead of pick 7, pick 10 & Henry.

The alternative was 7, then split 10 into Henry and a decent player. And still have 22 for another player.

Robertson + Stephens + Henry
or
Robertson + Henry + Sharp + Taylor

I prefer the latter by far. The issue being we can't guarantee those players would still be there. I'm thinking we explored having a pre-arranged pick split for 10, and couldn't get any takers to give us a good outcome.

We have allowed ourselves to be extorted where Melbourne have essentially received Langdon for nothing. I can't believe people are happy with this.

 

[_007_]

That's a shit trade.

 

[nurries]

Not bad if we get 2 decent picks at 7/8 then match a Henry bid with the low picks and then trade back in with future picks afterwards.

I think Carlton were looking at a bid for Henry at 9 which means we get 2 x top 8 picks before the bid and match Henry bid on Points

 

[Paracleet]

You just said how. Use our future first. It is easily worth 11 or 12 in value, or two picks in the late teens/20's. I wouldn't normally advocate that, but I think Taylor and Sharp are worth top 10-15 picks.

It's not worth that IMO. Picks have to be valued on a spread of probabilities. We could finish 4th last, that doesn't mean clubs will treat our first round pick next year as equal in value to pick 4. 1) They have to factor in the probability we will finish higher than that into the price. So whatever a club thinks our finish will be, it's that plus x. 2. Future picks are intrinsically worth less, as the future is discounted. I.E. pick 1 today is worth more than pick 1 next year.

If we wanted to trade for 11, it would cost us our future first and a future second minimum.

The only opening we have is for a Stockler like deal where we swap futures with a high finisher live on draft day for pick 18 / 19 or whatever. I don't think those clubs would do it though. I feel, purple goggles on admittedly, we would be rated as too likely to do well and they would lose out.

 

[CapitalA]

I think it is a good play we get 7,8 go into heavy defecit 2020 first pick lowering its value then trade it after henry bid for an early 2nd as its devalued to around that mark with the bid...

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[FreoBraddles]

The 2020 third we’ve given up was Collingwood’s so probably a late third. They’ve given us a 2020 fourth belonging to Carlton which would be mid-early fourth so potentially not a large drop there.

 

[UYD 4 Life]

It's effectively 22 and a future 3rd for pick 8 and 49 if they were certain Melbourne or Carlton were going to bid on Henry

 

[freo_leo29]

Stay with me here.
What if we have a deal sorted with GC for 15 and 20?

henry gets bid on at 12. We clean out points, then giveGC 2020F1 for 15 and 20.
Profit?

we need more points for Henry, would have to trade in using a future 2nd to get enough points for Henry, then do that deal with GC

 

[Freoforever86]

How do people see this isn’t a good deal?

I’ll take 2 1sts with Henry rather than speculative 2nd any day. Top draft picks are worth their weight.

 

[rgauci]

What picks have we retained for next year?

Our 1st, 2nd, Melbournes 2nd ??????

 

[Paracleet]

The alternative was 7, then split 10 into Henry and a decent player. And still have 22 for another player.

Robertson + Stephens + Henry
or
Robertson + Henry + Sharp + Taylor

I prefer the latter by far. The issue being we can't guarantee those players would still be there. I'm thinking we explored having a pre-arranged pick split for 10, and couldn't get any takers to give us a good outcome.

We have allowed ourselves to be extorted where Melbourne have essentially received Langdon for nothing. I can't believe people are happy with this.

You are forgetting one of the two picks we would have traded in would have been absorbed by the bid. It would have been Robertson + Henry + Sharp or Taylor

 

[freo_leo29]

The one positive with out late picks in the draft, is that they should all shuffle up the order after the Green Bid comes in and there points value will all increase by anywhere from 1-4 places!

 

[Joao]

How do people see this isn’t a good deal?

I’ll take 2 1sts with Henry rather than speculative 2nd any day. Top draft picks are worth their weight.

I'm not convinced he gets bits on in the top ten.

 

[Lach72]

we need more points for Henry, would have to trade in using a future 2nd to get enough points for Henry, then do that deal with GC

go into deficit on 2020, then trade the future first for 15 and 20.
I love the talent in this draft and would rather that we capitalise now than wait for next year. We have a heavy crop of NGA Available next year and 2 early second rounds already. Next year is heavy on KPP. I want another two from this crop.
Henry and any two Gould Sharp River Taylor after would be glorious

 

[Nothing]

Bell blinked.

 

[freo_leo29]

10+ 28 for 8 would have been reasonable, why the hell did we throw in the future 4th tied to Carlton, thats super overs ffs


Dees basically replenished the picks they gave up to North to get to pick 8, we got screwed hard

 

[jusjoshin]

2 top 8 picks this year plus Liam Henry is a phenomenal haul, even if we drop a few spots next year. We can still trade up with the plethora of seconds we have next year.

 

[gjn73]

Given Adelaide would have keen on McAsey and Stephens, maybe Freo has done a deal to be able to select Stephens at Pick 7