Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread #2

[Clems Knee]

Funny enough, clubs actually do now. GC stuffed it up for everyone. First round draft picks (especially those top 10s) are getting 400-500k now for their first extension. there was an article about it on afl.com.au a while ago.

Because of what GC got conned into doing to keep their kids, the whole league changed as players and player agents got wind of it.

I remember the article. I think it is unfair to blame all of that change on Gold Coast.
Western Bulldogs paid a million dollars a year for a first year player. That was probably the start of it.

 

[maccamk]

Anyone have access to the West’s article on 2020 WA draft prospects?


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Dale147]

AFL draft: Denver Grainger-Barras, Nathan O’Driscoll, Logan McDonald and Joel Western among WA’s best AFL draft prospects for 2020

Denver Grainger-Barras
Club: Swan Districts

From: Kalamunda

Height: 188cm
Weight: 78kg
Position: Defender
Early indications suggest that the Swan Districts intercept-marking machine could be the first WA player picked in next year’s national draft.
The 17-year-old, who has been likened to four-time All-Australian Jeremy McGovern, has enjoyed a breakout year at WAFL and state under-18s levels.
He played in the last two games of WA’s national under-18s carnival title after making his debut against the Allies in Adelaide and stood up in defence in the final game against Vic Country.
Soon after returning from the carnival, Grainger-Barras was rewarded with a league debut at Swan Districts against East Fremantle in round 14.
He had 12 touches and four marks for the match before sustaining a season-ending shoulder injury.
Grainger-Barras joined the likes of Nic Naitanui, Andrew Gaff, Luke Hodge and Joel Selwood to win the prestigious Jack Collins-Alan Schwab AFL Life Members Scholarship.

Will Denver Grainger-Barras be the first WA player called out in next year’s national draft?Credit: AFL Photo
sNathan O’Driscoll
Club: Perth
From: Northam Saints
Height: 183cm
Weight: 76kg
Position: Midfielder
O’Driscoll is set to become the fourth Northam product in three years to progress into AFL ranks, following Ian ‘Bobby’ Hill (Greater Western Sydney), Sydney Stack (Richmond) and Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions).
The left-footer was part of WA’s leadership group for their drought-breaking national under-18s carnival this year and is a strong chance to captain the Black Swans in 2020.
He also had a big season at colts level, averaging 22 disposals and nearly seven tackles per game for Perth.

Nathan O’Driscoll was part of WA’s leadership group as a bottom-ager this year. Credit: AFL Photos
Logan McDonald
Club: Perth
From: Coorow-Latham
Height: 193cm
Weight: 79kg
Position: Forward
McDonald is shaping up as one of the more exciting key forward prospects in next year’s draft.
The workhorse 193cm forward, in the mould of St Kilda champion Nick Riewoldt, has got a great set of hands and an accurate kick in front of goals.
He featured in the last three games of the carnival and averaged a goal, 11 disposals and four marks.

Logan McDonald takes a strong mark against the Allies in Adelaide. Credit: AFL Photos
Brandon Walker
Club: East Fremantle
From: Kardinya
Height: 179cm
Weight: 79kg
Position: Midfielder/half-back
Fremantle already have four Next Generation Academy products on their list, and Walker is a strong chance to join them.
The rebounding half-back has got great skills and elite closing speed, attributes that earned him Under-16s All-Australian honours last year.
A hamstring injury the day before prevented Walker from featuring in the AFL grand final curtain-raiser at the MCG alongside some of the best 2020 draft prospects.
He was part of WA’s under-18s squad but was unable to force his way into the team during the national carnival.

Brandon Walker in action for the Australian under-17s against New Zealand at Marvel Stadium in April. Credit: AFL Photos
Joel Western
Club: Claremont
From: Subiaco JFC
Height: 172cm
Weight: 63kg
Position: Midfielder/forward
If Western’s finish the year is anything to go by, he’s in for a massive 2020.
Yet another Fremantle Next Generation Academy talent, who qualifies because of his Singaporean heritage, the exciting midfielder-forward is a big-game player who finds plenty of the footy.
His colts grand final performance for Claremont was exceptional, amassing 23 disposals and laying six tackles in the thrilling win over Peel Thunder at Optus Stadium.
He backed that up the week after on the MCG with another stellar showing in the young guns AFL grand final curtain-raiser.

Fremantle Next Generation Academy talent Joel Western had an impressive outing at the MCG on grand final day. Credit: AFL Photos
Heath Chapman
Club: West Perth
From: Joondalup-Kinross
Height: 193cm
Weight: 75kg
Position: Defender
Chapman had a massive season at West Perth, averaging 19.5 possessions and 5.5 marks to make the colts team of the year in defence.
The 17-year-old is a competitive beast and reads the play well and takes plenty of intercept marks.
WAFC state talent manager Adam Jones predicted WA’s likely defensive duo of Chapman and Denver Grainger-Barras to Aaron Naughton and Sam Taylor from a few years ago.
He has the potential to be a top-30 pick.

Heath Chapman tries to break a tackle during the AFL grand final curtain-raiser on the MCG.Credit: AFL Photos
Shannon Neale
Club: South Fremantle
From: Jandakot Jets
Height: 198cm
Weight: 81kg
Position: Ruck/forward
Neale is a raw-but-exciting ruck talent who has a lot of upside.
Comes from a similar athletics background to Mark Blicavs and has a few similar traits with the Geelong big man.
The South Fremantle youngster, rated as a great character who’s eager to learn, is a national 400m and 800m runner who only committed to footy this year.
He played in the national under-16s carnival as an over-ager and finished the season in the AFL grand final curtain-raiser.
He is currently sidelined with a back injury but will be in contention for an WA under-18s berth next year.
Play Video
The National AFL draft wrapped up overnight and there was a sigh of relief for teenager Deven Robertson.
0:31 | 7NEWS Sydney


The National AFL draft wrapped up overnight and there was a sigh of relief for teenager Deven Robertson.
Blake Morris
Club: Subiaco
From: Kingsley
Height: 188cm
Weight: 80kg
Position: Defender
Another exciting defensive talent among the WA crop, Morris is an elite reader of the play down back.
The Subiaco product won the Black Swans’ MVP in the under-16s carnival.
He played a mix of futures and colts for the Lions last season as a third tall down back.
His kicking out of defence needs improving and he is a touch on the skinny side, but he should still be on the radar of several AFL clubs next year.
Jack Carroll
Club: East Fremantle
From: Chapman Valley
Height: 185cm
Weight: 71kg
Position: Midfielder
The Mid West has been a breeding ground for some absolute beauties over the years, and Jack Carroll is no different.
Carroll has played mainly half-back and wing to date, but should spend more time in the midfield next season.
Likened to Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury, the Sharks colt shows great poise with ball in hand and is a sound decision-maker.
He is moving from his hometown of Geraldton over Christmas to help further his AFL ambitions.

Jack Carroll (second from left) has been likened to Collingwood captain Scott Pendlebury.Zane Trew
Club: Swan Districts
From: Hills Rangers
Height: 184cm
Weight: 73kg
Position: Midfielder
Play Video
Highlights of Swan Districts midfielder Zane Trew, who is one of WA's leading draft prospects for 2020.
0:40 | WAFL


Highlights of Swan Districts midfielder Zane Trew, who is one of WA's leading draft prospects for 2020.
There’s a lot to like about the big-bodied Swan Districts midfielder, who finds so much of the footy, is reliable by hand and foot and has great vision.
Trew produced one of the best individual performances of the WAFL colts seasons in round three against Perth, racking up 40 touches to go with 10 tackles and four inside 50s.
He is a well-balanced midfielder who has the ability to play inside or outside, with shades of Richmond captain Trent Cotchin about him.
A shoulder reconstruction ended his season early but he is still one to watch for 2020.

 

[David C]

I’m glad he was sacked.

I'm not, he would have entrenched Carlton in the bottom 4 for years to come.

 

[David C]

The Suns are a joke of a club. No other team would pay a kid who has only played about 12 games $600k a year to stay at their club like they reportedly did with Ben King.
When next season comes around and Rowell Anderson and Flanders, even Sharp if he has a few good games, are due to sign in for a second contract, how the f&$k are they gonna afford that?? They are hardly going to accept a normal contract like any other normal club would offer them? The likes of swallow and Harbrow will all be looking for 1.5 million dollars per annum in a couple of years based on the rate King is paid.
You can’t build a club in a salary cap environment by offering ridiculous money to kids just to keep them around. It’s unsustainable and like any house of sand, it will all come crashing down at some point. Of course if Gill has any involvement at that stage in the AFL, they’ll prob be given an 50% higher cap than everyone else!

Ben King was getting bigger offers to return to VIC, he took unders to stay at GC.

 

[wayToGo_]

Second half of the season
Carlton: 6 wins, 5 losses (two of those losses against WB and Melb by less than 5pts)

Fremantle: 3 wins, 8 losses (we had a close loss to St Kilda)

I don’t think Carlton are going to be great in 2020 but it is to me a fairly comfortable better finish for Carlton in 2019 over Freo.

5 of those 6 wins were against bottom 8 teams. Brisbane the exception, who we also managed to beat a couple of weeks earlier.

No question we were trash in the second half of the season. Which team wouldn't be if they lost a bunch of key players and their entire spine minus one player (Hamling)?

That's kind of my point. Being better than we were post the bye in 2019 is a pretty awful yard stick. We were putrid (sans the Geelong win) - arguably the worst team in the AFL over that period.

In 2019, their average losing margin against top 8 teams was 27 points. They only played top 8 teams 9 times and won just 2 of them.

Our average losing margin against top 8 teams was 12 points. We played top 8 teams 11 times and won 5 of them.

Carlton's last game of the season they lost by more than 10 goals, to a team we beat by almost 6 goals a couple or so weeks earlier. Their "good form" to end the year might be slightly exaggerated

I get equalisation (via draft) is necessary but it seems that teams that underperform year after year are rewarded and somehow escape criticism. Meanwhile Freo have only been bottom 4 once in the past decade and we're treated like trash. The recent articles telling us how many top 5 picks SoS nailed are ridiculous, as are those lauding him for getting Martin via the PSD (by breaking the AFL's own rules about manipulating the drafts). Bring on the hype train yet again though, nothing the AFL wants more than them to finally not be a complete basket case.

 

[eastfreo75]

The kid kid

I'm not, he would have entrenched Carlton in the bottom 4 for years to come.

very true

 

[Purple_Turtle]

Sorry for the intrusion.

I haven’t seen or heard it discussed elsewhere, but SOS bidding for Henry first was actually a tactical move looking towards next years draft.

Carlton might view themselves as finishing around the same spot as Fremantle on the ladder next year.

By bidding on Henry first, they cause Freo to carry a greater points deficit in to next year, and it might just see Freo pushed back behind Carlton on next year’s draft order. Thus moving Carlton up a spot, with a greater choice of next year’s top talent. And

Wasn't Cal saying in the piece that it was to buy time to do a pickswap with another team?

 

[Superkoops]

5 of those 6 wins were against bottom 8 teams. Brisbane the exception, who we also managed to beat a couple of weeks earlier.

No question we were trash in the second half of the season. Which team wouldn't be if they lost a bunch of key players and their entire spine minus one player (Hamling)?

That's kind of my point. Being better than we were post the bye in 2019 is a pretty awful yard stick. We were putrid (sans the Geelong win) - arguably the worst team in the AFL over that period.

In 2019, their average losing margin against top 8 teams was 27 points. They only played top 8 teams 9 times and won just 2 of them.

Our average losing margin against top 8 teams was 12 points. We played top 8 teams 11 times and won 5 of them.

Carlton's last game of the season they lost by more than 10 goals, to a team we beat by almost 6 goals a couple or so weeks earlier. Their "good form" to end the year might be slightly exaggerated

I get equalisation (via draft) is necessary but it seems that teams that underperform year after year are rewarded and somehow escape criticism. Meanwhile Freo have only been bottom 4 once in the past decade and we're treated like trash. The recent articles telling us how many top 5 picks SoS nailed are ridiculous, as are those lauding him for getting Martin via the PSD (by breaking the AFL's own rules about manipulating the drafts). Bring on the hype train yet again though, nothing the AFL wants more than them to finally not be a complete basket case.

I agree with you. My point however is how the team is rated over East. If the journalists (if that is what you can call them these days) across outlets like Fox and HSun are anything to go by they have have us bottom three.

There is even a recent article on the West about how specifically Carlton’s list is much better than Freo.

I agree Carlton aren’t going to ascent much (if at all).

Then I responded to a statement along the lines from a poster “surely there is no way Carlton would have expected to finish higher than Freo”. I’m sure Carlton do think this and they would also jump on board with the Vic media support that Freo are bottom three material.

Do I agree with this Vic media thought process - nope I agree with you.

 

[Superkoops]

Wasn't Cal saying in the piece that it was to buy time to do a pickswap with another team?

Cal also said Carlton were genuinely interested in Henry. Silvani was on the phone the whole time trying to make deals whilst Freo were trying to sort out a decent points pick swap.

After the Henry bid match from Freo they hadn’t sorted out their deal so threw up Green purely for time wasting purposes. If Cal is to be believed Carlton weren’t as interested in Green but needed more time to execute a swap - they tried Geelong and then moved onto GCS.

Im not sure I agree entirely with Briztoon. Carlton bidding at 9 did indeed cause Freo some headaches and like the Brisbane academy fella in the mid 30’s were hoping Freo couldn’t get things sorted in time. Only difference being Brisbane were given an extra 15 mins overtime to sort out their s*#t. Was there an element of having Freo go into deficit for 2020, maybe but not a key element in Carlton placing the bid.

 

[SHill Shall]

I agree with you. My point however is how the team is rated over East. If the journalists (if that is what you can call them these days) across outlets like Fox and HSun are anything to go by they have have us bottom three.

There is even a recent article on the West about how specifically Carlton’s list is much better than Freo.

I agree Carlton aren’t going to ascent much (if at all).

Then I responded to a statement along the lines from a poster “surely there is no way Carlton would have expected to finish higher than Freo”. I’m sure Carlton do think this and they would also jump on board with the Vic media support that Freo are bottom three material.

Do I agree with this Vic media thought process - nope I agree with you.

You kinda missed the sarcasm emoji on my original comment!

 

[briztoon]

Wasn't Cal saying in the piece that it was to buy time to do a pickswap with another team?

Sure it was.

But why bid on Henry first, when Green was considered by everyone to be the higher rated player.

Two birds with one stone and all that.

 

[Superkoops]

You kinda missed the sarcasm emoji on my original comment!

Yep I did miss the sarcasm emoji sorry. Also wasn’t having a go anyway. We have basically been written off by everyone over east.

As WTG indicated sense of false positivity with Carlton’s second half of the year. They changed coach mid year had a bit of a honeymoon period in terms of wins against lower teams including Freo and suddenly things are on the improve.

Whereas our poor finish to the season again for the third year running is one of the biggest factors in RTB getting the lemon.

We might surprise a few next year.

 

[george2]

I thought Brandon Walker was taller than 179cm? i was under the impression that he had spent time in the ruck for the East Fremantle colts team pinch hitting?

 

[theGav56]

Sure it was.

But why bid on Henry first, when Green was considered by everyone to be the higher rated player.

Two birds with one stone and all that.

I think there is no doubt Carlton played it well.

 

[wayToGo_]

But why bid on Henry first, when Green was considered by everyone to be the higher rated player.

Just a wild stab in the dark here but maybe because Carlton were after a clever small forward a lot more than an inside mid? Nah, you are probably right, it was all just an evil ploy to screw Freo in the 2020 draft.

Seriously though, if Carlton are that concerned about where other teams finish on the ladder next year relative to them (for a slightly better draft pick) rather than focussing on getting out of the bottom 4 (finally) then they should just burn the place down and start over.

As someone who supports Brisbane who finally made the internal changes to create a winning culture (rather than just collecting high end talent at the draft year after year) I thought you might have a smarter mindset about this?!?

 

[arsesmart]

Just a wild stab in the dark here but maybe because Carlton were after a clever small forward a lot more than an inside mid?

It might be a fair enough theory, but then Carltoon went and used all their picks they had to select mids.

The primary aim was buying time, as they knew both Freo and GWS would match those bids as they both had loaded up with later pick points to get them.

I'm sure the Bloooz would of been happy to get either of those players, but it is the bid order that's the thing to focus on. It might've of even been a strategy thrown up by the analytics person: "Hey we're 99% sure they'll match the bids anyway, so while we're buying us some time, we're better off doing the Freo bid first as we might just find ourselves a little higher up in next years draft ta boot".

 

[arsesmart]

Funny enough, clubs actually do now. GC stuffed it up for everyone. First round draft picks (especially those top 10s) are getting 400-500k now for their first extension. there was an article about it on afl.com.au a while ago.

Because of what GC got conned into doing to keep their kids, the whole league changed as players and player agents got wind of it.

All markets get distorted from time to time. Particularly when there's significant growth in those markets. There'll be corrections in time.

I tend to think we'll all be better off for that kind of growth in the longer run, even if there's some short term disruption.

 

[briztoon]

Just a wild stab in the dark here but maybe because Carlton were after a clever small forward a lot more than an inside mid? Nah, you are probably right, it was all just an evil ploy to screw Freo in the 2020 draft.

Seriously though, if Carlton are that concerned about where other teams finish on the ladder next year relative to them (for a slightly better draft pick) rather than focussing on getting out of the bottom 4 (finally) then they should just burn the place down and start over.

As someone who supports Brisbane who finally made the internal changes to create a winning culture (rather than just collecting high end talent at the draft year after year) I thought you might have a smarter mindset about this?!?

Shots fired.

Unless it’s Peel67 or MrBods I don’t play the man on oppo boards.

I don’t for a second claim to have a grasp on AFL analytics on how far teams look in to the future.

But I do know from a Lions perspective that we have an analytics guy who does all our future team modelling in terms of trade targets, draft targets, pick trades and what current and future drafts could look like, etc.

David Noble our GM of football, has mentioned we have an analytics guy he has employed for 8 years, and brought him up with him from Adelaide. And briefly outlined his involvement in our teams trading, drafting and modelling of our future team.

And from being a NBA fan for close on 30 years, I know there is a huge emphasis and industry on sports analytics that goes way beyond in game statistics.

I know a lot of AFL teams have sent staff over to the yearly Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT.

There are many sports strategy books based on the trading of future picks, splitting picks, etc.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit, that Carlton deliberately bid on Henry first, knowing Fremantle were going to match, with an eye to the future, and the possibility that the points deficit might come in to play for them.

Bidding on academy and father son kids just adds another dynamic to our draft.

Fremantle should have bid on Green, knowing GWS were always going to match after their first pick, because it would have lessened your own points deficit rather significantly.

 

[wayToGo_]

Shots fired.

Unless it’s Peel67 or MrBods I don’t play the man on oppo boards.

I don’t for a second claim to have a grasp on AFL analytics on how far teams look in to the future.

But I do know from a Lions perspective that we have an analytics guy who does all our future team modelling in terms of trade targets, draft targets, pick trades and what current and future drafts could look like, etc.

David Noble our GM of football, has mentioned we have an analytics guy he has employed for 8 years, and brought him up with him from Adelaide. And briefly outlined his involvement in our teams trading, drafting and modelling of our future team.

And from being a NBA fan for close on 30 years, I know there is a huge emphasis and industry on sports analytics that goes way beyond in game statistics.

I know a lot of AFL teams have sent staff over to the yearly Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT.

There are many sports strategy books based on the trading of future picks, splitting picks, etc.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit, that Carlton deliberately bid on Henry first, knowing Fremantle were going to match, with an eye to the future, and the possibility that the points deficit might come in to play for them.

Bidding on academy and father son kids just adds another dynamic to our draft.

Fremantle should have bid on Green, knowing GWS were always going to match after their first pick, because it would have lessened your own points deficit rather significantly.

Nah you are way over complicating it. Twomey said Carlton really rated and wanted Henry. Therefore it's not a stretch to think they wanted him more than Green. Looking at Freo, I'd want Henry more than Green as well if given the choice of the two. I'm not sure what point you were trying to make with all the content in your post about analytics guys, NBA, MIT etc but good effort

 

[Superkoops]

Fremantle should have bid on Green, knowing GWS were always going to match after their first pick, because it would have lessened your own points deficit rather significantly.

I agree we should have bid on Green at 8. It would have saved 59 points better than a kick in the arse but ‘rather significantly’?

10 = 1395 x 0.8 = 1116
9 = 1469 x 0.8 = 1175

Our current deficit is 265. If we bid on Green and carried out the same trade our deficit would have been 206.

 

[briztoon]

Simple, if you teams management are not looking at gaining every competitive advantage for your team, both on and off the field, then you have the wrong people running your club, and they’re letting your club down.

 

[briztoon]

I agree we should have bid on Green at 8. It would have saved 59 points better than a kick in the arse but ‘rather significantly’?

10 = 1395 x 0.8 = 1116
9 = 1469 x 0.8 = 1175

Our current deficit is 265. If we bid on Green and carried out the same trade our deficit would have been 206.

Have you factored in GWS losing their later picks, and moving your late picks up, thus you’re later picks would also have been worth more points and decreased your deficit further.

 

[dont bowl there]

Simple, if you teams management are not looking at gaining every competitive advantage for your team, both on and off the field, then you have the wrong people running your club, and they’re letting your club down.

What's your point though? You come on here two weeks after the draft talking about why Carlton bid on Henry first like we are suppose to care, good for SOS if he got one up on us. We still drafted 3 players inside the top 10 and they ended up drafting 0.

 

[Taylor]

As much as you don't want to believe it, I think AFL clubs football departments try and keep as friendly as possible with one another.

Freo and GWS have had quite a fruitful relationship and still do.