Mega Thread 2019 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread

[summerthebat]

AFL trade whispers indicating Geelong want three top 30 selections for Kelly now & given they need multiple first round selections to deal with Higgins/Stevens and having been forced to use one on top of that, means that they'll have to be dealing early with WCE/Fremantle before they can trade with North/Saints.

Given the spread of picks needed, my gut feel is that they're preparing to deal with WCE, given that I can't see us dealing 6 or 7, AND two other selections before 30, given the numbers we need to complete a list and secure Liam Henry.

I know it's their demand and a starting bargaining position, but those numbers make sense for what they need to accomplish in the trade period.

 

[malpaso]

The biggest blindfold for a list management dept. is the holes in a current list. It makes their view of players myopic. For example: Pretty sure we drafted Strnadica because our forward talls were non-existent.
This is where a really good list manager sees above the holes and the coaching staff work to re-structure the game plan even temporarily. IMO a club should not pass on getting in good midfielders. Good talls take longer anyway.

 

[Demons09]

The year before Ryan was drafted I was arguing he was worth a shot as a rookie...Slightly flaky and lazy and talent coming out of his arse...

These are the perfect guys for rookie listing...we seem to pick hard workers and try and bash talent into them...I'd rather take talent and try and bash hard work into them personally...

Have a look at Rioli, Ryan, McGovern and Dean Cox...all fat lazy slobs with talent....

Yeah but they aren’t athletes.

 

[Quokka]

AFL trade whispers indicating Geelong want three top 30 selections for Kelly now & given they need multiple first round selections to deal with Higgins/Stevens and having been forced to use one on top of that, means that they'll have to be dealing early with WCE/Fremantle before they can trade with North/Saints.

Given the spread of picks needed, my gut feel is that they're preparing to deal with WCE, given that I can't see us dealing 6 or 7, AND two other selections before 30, given the numbers we need to complete a list and secure Liam Henry.

I know it's their demand and a starting bargaining position, but those numbers make sense for what they need to accomplish in the trade period.

Not sure about those whispers, the article I read had that headline but what it actually says is Geelong want to go to the draft with three top 30 picks.

They already have one. Just not interested in Kelly being a player swap, so just as an example they could still be interested in something like our first and second.

AFL trades 2019: Geelong to seek three top 30 draft picks for Tim Kelly in potential trade back to WA

Revealed: Cats’ price for Tim Kelly and what they’ll do with the haul

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[heavho]

use current pick 24,20 for Langdon from Melbourne and get a kick in 20s from saints along with pick 5 for brad hill.

That way keep 5,6 for the draft worth it ?

 

[summerthebat]

Not sure about those whispers, the article I read had that headline but what it actually says is Geelong want to go to the draft with three top 30 picks.

They already have one. Just not interested in Kelly being a player swap, so just as an example they could still be interested in something like our first and second.

AFL trades 2019: Geelong to seek three top 30 draft picks for Tim Kelly in potential trade back to WA

Revealed: Cats’ price for Tim Kelly and what they’ll do with the haul

www.foxsports.com.au

Yes true,

I guess one positive for casual & captive observers is they need to deal Kelly with time to spare.

 

[Okinakashi]

The year before Ryan was drafted I was arguing he was worth a shot as a rookie...Slightly flaky and lazy and talent coming out of his arse...

Ironically, Ryan Nyhuis absolutely wiped the floor with Liam Ryan the 2 or 3 times Peel played Subi.

Maybe that's why we didn't pick Liam, or maybe we should've kept Ryan N.

I'm so confused right now. Can we please just pick a new coach....

 

[theGav56]

AFL trade whispers indicating Geelong want three top 30 selections for Kelly now & given they need multiple first round selections to deal with Higgins/Stevens and having been forced to use one on top of that, means that they'll have to be dealing early with WCE/Fremantle before they can trade with North/Saints.

Given the spread of picks needed, my gut feel is that they're preparing to deal with WCE, given that I can't see us dealing 6 or 7, AND two other selections before 30, given the numbers we need to complete a list and secure Liam Henry.

I know it's their demand and a starting bargaining position, but those numbers make sense for what they need to accomplish in the trade period.

3 picks under 30 is easy pickings, and I would be surprised if that is what they want (our pick 6 traded down plus our 2nd round). They will be wanting one of the three to be top 10. WC can find those picks too without much problem.

 

[arsesmart]

Given the retirements, delistings and the players wanting trades, I think your wish arrived too late.

Not really, what I'm saying is we go for what stability we can salvage from here.

I don't know if anyone catches the Trends podcast, it can be a bit hit and miss, but this episode absolutely nails it and has some interesting points to make when you consider the Kelly situation and where we've been at over the past 3 or 4 years.

Transforming average into extraordinary: how cohesive environments change players


Particularly relevant points for Freo include the discussion around players who come from cohesive teams not being the same player when they get to teams who are in flux/lower cohesion levels.

There's actually references re Geelong's cohesiveness a few times, given many had played together at the Falcons etc. It's definitely a risk factor, given how much they'd need to splurge out to get Kelly here, that the first season or two of him at 26 years old are likely to be at less than peak payout.

Freo is definitely a team looking to build cohesion. Forgetting all the cuts and small-time changes, just the big(ish) recruits across the past few years include 2016: Bennell, 2017: Hill, Hamling, Kersten, McCarthy 2018: Matera, Wilson, 2019: Hogan, Lobb, Conca.

Another one is where clubs (boards in particular) misunderstand where a team is at in it's building phase and lose patience. Carlton being a prime repeat offender example (Voss another example who provides some sobriety).

All outward signs indicated Lyon was big on the building cohesion idea (e.g. the "favourites" trope). I reckon, whatever we think of the overall cost-benefit of him as head coach, he provided a steady hand to integrate these new players into the team and comparisons to other teams in a similar developing demographic had Freo ahead of most of them on a W/L over the past few years. So a rookie coach will definitely need to have a strong strategy on structures for integration and building team cohesion, but you'd think overall it'll be tough on a newbie to get a full handle on it.

The takeaway for me is really that this trade period would benefit from approaching with caution. Kelly, as he is at Geelong, is a nice idea given what we've lost in Hill and Langdon to a lesser degree, but that maybe that's not what we'd get. The flux that comes with high-level trading probably isn't what the team needs right now, but rather a chance to consolidate the squad as it is and build cohesion.

 

[TheLastCall]

Rookies re-sign

Tobe Watson and Dillon O'Reilly have signed on for the 2020 season

m.fremantlefc.com.au

We’ve re-rookies Watson and O’Reilly for 2020.

Good move, I like both as rookies.

 

[jusjoshin]

If we sell the farm for Kelly, I will be rope-able. 1 first or 2 second rounders or pass. I am sick of Freo selling the cow for a bag of magic beans.

Back ourselves into the draft if we can't find a reasonably priced trade option.

 

[arsesmart]

Agree

Well not quite, Freo had just taken on Yarran that year and it was still very much a growing-pains phase as it seemed then. The timing was really unfortunate as had the Yarran situation come to a head before the draft that year, rather than after as it did, it's likely they would've had a spot to take a gamble on another raw talent in Liam Ryan.

 

[Purple Suit]

Picket hasn’t even played a game yet, maybe we should wait for him to have a bit of a career before we call it a hit or miss.

There are only 3 decent reserves leagues in the country, wafl, sanfl and vfl.

All of them are right under the noses of recruiters - just because the club is based in WA doesn’t mean our recruiters should resource the WAFL more than the other two or weight it better. In fact it would be utterly stupid.

We are having a crack at plenty of mature age players, and we’re one of the clubs at the leading edge of mature age drafting.

Ryan didn’t deserve a shot before the year he was drafted, and was taken at about the right pick for the trade off between his talent and lack of work ethic at the time.

Kelly is a freak, for every Tim Kelly there are 10 Dean Towers.

He was right under the nose of every AFL side.

Before Tim Kelly, there was also a bloke called Menegola who suddenly turned into an AFL player. He's dropped off a lot this year, probably to do with Kelly taking his on ball time off him.

Makes you wonder if Geelong's development coaches are better than most and they can make the transition easier.

 

[yyou]

Not really, what I'm saying is we go for what stability we can salvage from here.

I don't know if anyone catches the Trends podcast, it can be a bit hit and miss, but this episode absolutely nails it and has some interesting points to make when you consider the Kelly situation and where we've been at over the past 3 or 4 years.

Transforming average into extraordinary: how cohesive environments change players


Particularly relevant points for Freo include the discussion around players who come from cohesive teams not being the same player when they get to teams who are in flux/lower cohesion levels.

There's actually references re Geelong's cohesiveness a few times, given many had played together at the Falcons etc. It's definitely a risk factor, given how much they'd need to splurge out to get Kelly here, that the first season or two of him at 26 years old are likely to be at less than peak payout.

Freo is definitely a team looking to build cohesion. Forgetting all the cuts and small-time changes, just the big(ish) recruits across the past few years include 2016: Bennell, 2017: Hill, Hamling, Kersten, McCarthy 2018: Matera, Wilson, 2019: Hogan, Lobb, Conca.

Another one is where clubs (boards in particular) misunderstand where a team is at in it's building phase and lose patience. Carlton being a prime repeat offender example (Voss another example who provides some sobriety).

All outward signs indicated Lyon was big on the building cohesion idea (e.g. the "favourites" trope). I reckon, whatever we think of the overall cost-benefit of him as head coach, he provided a steady hand to integrate these new players into the team and comparisons to other teams in a similar developing demographic had Freo ahead of most of them on a W/L over the past few years. So a rookie coach will definitely need to have a strong strategy on structures for integration and building team cohesion, but you'd think overall it'll be tough on a newbie to get a full handle on it.

The takeaway for me is really that this trade period would benefit from approaching with caution. Kelly, as he is at Geelong, is a nice idea given what we've lost in Hill and Langdon to a lesser degree, but that maybe that's not what we'd get. The flux that comes with high-level trading probably isn't what the team needs right now, but rather a chance to consolidate the squad as it is and build cohesion.

that was a great podcast
really impressive

 

[Paracleet]

The year before Ryan was drafted I was arguing he was worth a shot as a rookie...Slightly flaky and lazy and talent coming out of his arse...

These are the perfect guys for rookie listing...we seem to pick hard workers and try and bash talent into them...I'd rather take talent and try and bash hard work into them personally...

Have a look at Rioli, Ryan, McGovern and Dean Cox...all fat lazy slobs with talent....

He ran a 9 in the beep test at the 2016 state screening. It's hardly surprising he was overlooked that year. Pretty confident I could manage a 9 even at 41 and handicapped by a modest beer gut.

 

[Bring back Drum]

Before Tim Kelly, there was also a bloke called Menegola who suddenly turned into an AFL player. He's dropped off a lot this year, probably to do with Kelly taking his on ball time off him.

Makes you wonder if Geelong's development coaches are better than most and they can make the transition easier.

Combination of a lot of things. Better coaches, strong on field leaders setting the standards, settled off field management structure backing the on field department & continued success creating a great culture & winning environment.

Cats, Hawks, Sydney & the w***ers down the road to a lesser extent have these structures & are very good at making off cuts better by giving them a role & backing them in, us......not so much.

 

[free at last]

But nobody wanted them a year early, you can't blame the recruiters for not drafting them yet give every other club a pass. Sometimes these state players simply aren't mentally ready for AFL football.

Some times it's worth going against the herd-do the opposite.

We could have rookie drafted both Kelly & Ryan,worth taking a risk imo.

The amount of countless times I'd see on this board saying we should be having a crack at these guys.Rest is history.

 

[arsesmart]

Before Tim Kelly, there was also a bloke called Menegola who suddenly turned into an AFL player. He's dropped off a lot this year, probably to do with Kelly taking his on ball time off him.

Makes you wonder if Geelong's development coaches are better than most and they can make the transition easier.

As per my post above, players coming into a team with a lot of stability and cohesion get an environment with plenty of room to play at their optimum. Geelong has a core of players who played a lot together (with success), which includes bringing players who've played together pre-AFL in their local leagues. It explains probably a lot of their sustained success.

The role of coaches, according to Ben Darwin (ex-Wallabies prop and data analytics guy featured in the podcast) is really to facilitate this sort of environment.

I've thought this of Clarkson for a long time, that he got an opportunity to inherit a core of players and then list build around them. Getting Buddy & Roughhead in one draft as the magic ingredients spurring them to earlier than expected success and then primed for the 2012-2015 stellar heights, the team was known inside out by Clarkson and had played a lot of footy together with success, so plug-n-play (e.g. Lake, Frawley etc) was much easier to do.

Also, Menegola was injured or recovering most of the time he was at Freo.

 

[Dale147]

At the end of the day, Geelong don’t hold a very good hand, all they have is an uncontracted player. Never seen an uncontracted player worth 2 picks under 30 let along 3.

 

[dont bowl there]

Some times it's worth going against the herd-do the opposite.

We could have rookie drafted both Kelly & Ryan,worth taking a risk imo.

The amount of countless times I'd see on this board saying we should be having a crack at these guys.Rest is history.

Yeah we could have rookied them, so could the other 17 clubs at the time. There is a reason that they weren't given a chance at that stage of their career and just because they turned out doesn't mean they would have if drafted a year earlier.

 

[arsesmart]

Combination of a lot of things. Better coaches, strong on field leaders setting the standards, settled off field management structure backing the on field department & continued success creating a great culture & winning environment.

Cats, Hawks, Sydney & the w***ers down the road to a lesser extent have these structures & are very good at making off cuts better by giving them a role & backing them in, us......not so much.

You should check out the podcast link above. It lists all these teams as having had high cohesion. In fact, the guy featured, Ben Darwin, predicted both the Tigers and WC early in their premiership seasons for the flag based on the level of cohesion they had. High levels of cohesion also helps with the plug-n-play of new readymade recruits.

Outside of the podcast, there's research showing that success begets success, as more shared success in the past leads to greater success in the present.

 

[Superkoops]

At the end of the day, Geelong don’t hold a very good hand, all they have is an uncontracted player. Never seen an uncontracted player worth 2 picks under 30 let along 3.

The way I viewed it was they want to have three picks under 30. They have one already at 18 which will change either to 19 or slightly less if they don’t win the big dance.

They will ideally want one top 10 pick and another in the top 30. We can fulfil that. West Coast’s first pick will be likely 14/15 or later. Because that is outside the top 10 they will want a third pick to balance that ledger,

For West Coast 14-17, 23, 32-34 > Tim Kelly, and a later pick back

For us the deal would likely be our existing:
7, 25 > Kelly

We might also be able to squeeze out a later pick as well.

Pick 15 pushed forward by points through adding 33 (ie on points; 15 + 33 = Pick 7)

The good news is they don’t want players so people can rest easy that Darcy won’t be going anywhere.

I agree that the trade demands make it look like West Coast are on the box seat should Tim Kelly leave Geelong.

 

[free at last]

So we try and get Melbourne's first pick which is pick 3...Then Tim Kelly can nominate for the draft and we pick him up at 3...
Suck it up Geelong!

 

[Purple Suit]

So we try and get Melbourne's first pick which is pick 3...Then Tim Kelly can nominate for the draft and we pick him up at 3...
Suck it up Geelong!

Geelong would take pick 3 for Kelly & then turn it into multiple picks for their needs.

 

[Harry Reems]

I heard Caroline Wilson say on Footy Classified last night that Tim Kelly's partner gave a social media post announcing Ross Lyon's sacking the thumbs up.

Read into that what you will.