List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[WaynesWorld19]

not all these players will make it. History tells us 50% of them will almost certainly bust

so likelihood of succeeding needs to be incorporated into style and type too

Exactly .....everyone's getting excited about every player, and history says 40% minimum will be duds .....OK to be a good junior player, that means little when you get to the big league

Focus on the characteristics that a player needs to be a success at AFL level ......unfortunately we can't gauge motivation, hunger, or work ethic

 

[WaynesWorld19]

There will probably be more than 55, once the RD is taken into account.

That was the Main Draft number quoted .....so right on 3 picks per club ave

 

[Sanders]

Van Berlo mk II maybe?

Ben Cunnington II

 

[Vader]

That was the Main Draft number quoted .....so right on 3 picks per club ave

There wouldn't be too many taking more than that. I will be very surprised if Adelaide select more than 2 in the ND.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

There wouldn't be too many taking more than that. I will be very surprised if Adelaide select more than 2 in the ND.

As it stands now, yes you'd think 2 picks, plus a rookie upgrade .....will be interesting if we have any interest in any DFA's

 

[Vader]

As it stands now, yes you'd think 2 picks, plus a rookie upgrade .....will be interesting if we have any interest in any DFA's

I don't think we'll see any DFAs. 1-2 rookie upgrades is likely, depending on whether or not we re-sign ROC (1 if we do, 2 if we don't). I think we'll pass on at least one pick in the RD, possibly two, to take advantage of the PSSP and/or MSD.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I don't think we'll see any DFAs. 1-2 rookie upgrades is likely, depending on whether or not we re-sign ROC (1 if we do, 2 if we don't). I think we'll pass on at least one pick in the RD, possibly two, to take advantage of the PSSP and/or MSD.

If we upgrade to fill our full compliment on the main list, from the rookie list .....won't that mean we'll take rookies

Wouldn't it be better to leave spaces on the main list, rather than the rookie list ?

 

[Danger in Texas]

I don't think we'll see any DFAs. 1-2 rookie upgrades is likely, depending on whether or not we re-sign ROC (1 if we do, 2 if we don't). I think we'll pass on at least one pick in the RD, possibly two, to take advantage of the PSSP and/or MSD.

Considering list spots *should* be back up to normal next year, I reckon we'd only make the 1 upgrade as it stands. We can afford to add 2 extra players to the senior list when the league goes back to 38/6, rather than 36/8

We might still delist ROC, though (if we do, I think he's re-rookied), and I wouldn't go counting out taking 3 picks just yet

 

[Big Crow]

Difficult to see a flight risk I guess when he says he'll go anywhere and he's happy just to get on an AFL list....

Imagine if the crows were linked to a player saying he wanted to “work something out” with us. We’d be banned from the draft for years.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Already done that if you care to use the search facility.

Can I see this too?? , I’ll name a few a like that I’ve actually seen full games of too

 

[Vader]

If we upgrade to fill our full compliment on the main list, from the rookie list .....won't that mean we'll take rookies

Wouldn't it be better to leave spaces on the main list, rather than the rookie list ?

Not necessarily.

By the time we get beyond our 2nd pick, most of the remaining players are fairly speculative - especially this year, given that the Victorian kids have barely played any football in 2 years.

The PSSP gives us a chance to have them train with us over the pre-season, giving us a more informed decision about which player(s) to sign. Similarly, the MSD gives us a chance to see some exposed form when things return to normal for the 2022 season. Then there's the ability to sign them to 12-month contracts, limiting the risk of being stuck with dud players.

Also, there is no obligation for us to have a full list. We can always go 1 or 2 players short on the rookie list, giving us extra positions we could fill next year.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Can I see this too?? , I’ll name a few a like that I’ve actually seen full games of too

I only study first rounds ....

1. Callaghan
2. Mac Andrew
3. Goater
4. Erasmus
5. Ward

Always liked Chesser, but assume he'll go somewhere in the 2nd round

 

[Jeffcrowe]

So if I’m doing a talent list might be something like this

Horne-Francis
Darcy
Daicos
Andrew
Callaghan * admit haven’t seen as much as I’d like
Gap
Erasmus * (would have liked to see him play against SA / Vics to further entrench him )
Ward
Goater
Gibcus
Hobbs
Sonsie
Rachele
Sinn
Amiss
Wilmot
Johnson
Draper
Wanganeen-Milera
Howes
Long
Knevitt
Murley
Taylor
Van Rooyen
Fejo
Fahey

 

[Vader]

Considering list spots *should* be back up to normal next year, I reckon we'd only make the 1 upgrade as it stands. We can afford to add 2 extra players to the senior list when the league goes back to 38/6, rather than 36/8

We might still delist ROC, though (if we do, I think he's re-rookied), and I wouldn't go counting out taking 3 picks just yet

*should* is rightly marked in asterisks. We know the AFL lies. Habitually. Every day. They're worse than politicians. We have no ****ing idea whether or not list sizes will go up, and it's potentially dangerous to assume that they will.

I can't see us making 3 picks, unless something too good to be true comes up on draft day. We won't be making a live selection with pick #75.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I’d love to get Wilmot at pick 33 . Huge fan . He’s the youngest player in draft also

 

[Danger in Texas]

*should* is rightly marked in asterisks. We know the AFL lies. Habitually. Every day. They're worse than politicians. We have no ****ing idea whether or not list sizes will go up, and it's potentially dangerous to assume that they will.

I can't see us making 3 picks, unless something too good to be true comes up on draft day. We won't be making a live selection with pick #75.

I do agree with the bolded. Draft day trades are entirely possible though, and we can upgrade rookies even after the main draft is held this year, I believe

Might wait until we've made our selections to see if we feel the need to upgrade two of Keays/Strachan/Butts

 

[Danger in Texas]

I'll put my top 25 up as well, why not

1: Horne-Francis
2: Daicos
3: Darcy
4: Callaghan
5: Amiss
6: Hobbs
7: Ward
8: Erasmus
9: Goater
10: Andrew
11: Gibcus
12: Rachele
13: Draper
14: Johnson
15: Butler
16: Sinn
17: Knevitt
18: Chesser
19: Bazzo
20: Roberts
21: Sonsie
22: Wilmot
23: Clarke
24: Van Rooyen
25: Taylor

NWM, Howes, Murley, Curtis, Molan, Fejo among those unlucky to miss out

 

[Redline]

Sounds like with the Dawson done we are looking at something else which I presume is a pick swap. Given what we have it must involve next year's picks.

 

[George Kramer]

Sounds like with the Dawson done we are looking at something else which I presume is a pick swap. Given what we have it must involve next year's picks.

Or we are splitting 4 now

 

[Redline]

Or we are splitting 4 now

I almost hope we do it for a good laugh.

 

[fortunatecrow]

Or we are splitting 4 now

That's my completely uninformed guess

 

[Glenny83]

I’d love to get Wilmot at pick 33 . Huge fan . He’s the youngest player in draft also

He's a 183cm half back. No for me.

 

[Mutineer]

He's a 183cm half back. No for me.

He's a 183cm half back currently with a skill set that could likely translate to other roles if you've watched him play.

 

[Glenny83]

He's a 183cm half back currently with a skill set that could likely translate to other roles if you've watched him play.

Where are you going to play him before that happens?

 

[Mutineer]

Where are you going to play him before that happens?

wing/half back