List Mgmt. 2021 Draft picks: 4/33/75

[Deaneus!]

thanks to Lore as always

AFL Draft Pick Value Calculator - Draftguru

 

[craig crowing]

I don't give a flying *** if there are South Australians available with later picks. I want the best available player. What our midfield needs is an elite midfielder, not more good but not elite mids. JHF is the only elite SA midfielder in this year's class, and he's almost certainly going to be going to North. If that leaves elite mids from Vic or WA to choose from, then we pick the Vic or WA kids. I want elite, not 2x good but not elite.

I have no issue with delisting Davis or ROC, but if our picks are #4, #33 and #75, then we're only selecting 2 players and the filling the remainder of the senior list with rookie upgrades (leaving space for Dawson in the PSD if necessary).

I can definitely see us delisting ROC (creating a 5th senior list vacancy). We would then fill the list with Dawson, #4, #33, Strachan & Butts (rookie upgrades). This is very plausible, far more plausible than making 4x ND selections.

Like many just jump at shadows rather than whole point of post .
The SA component was used in post as due to injuries etc some very good SA kids ,Roberts ,Murley and especially Draper could slide yes as well as some Vic players etc and from what I have seen and read I would not write off Draper as a possible elite player of future.
But of course so even Callahan and Hobbs etc may not be elite as many of Melbourne players not elite but part of a very good premiership win.
Remembering 75 is likely to be around low to mid 50 picks and many many good players even elite players come from there .
Maybe a bloke called James Hird might have been called elite as a starter.
Still saying 3 picks + Dawson especially if can split 4 .

 

[70lethal]

We're guaranteed to have at least 1 of Callaghan, Hobbs or Erasmus still on the table at pick 4 - probably 2 of the 3. All of them are better than any SA midfielders in this year's draft class, not named Jason Horne-Francis.

Yes, I get the point that not all elite players are drafted in the top-5, but your chances of drafting an elite player are much higher with those picks than they are later in the draft.

I'm happy to take SA kids if they're around the mark, as Thilthorpe was last year. I'm not happy to take them if they're nowhere near the best available player at that pick, and I definitely don't want us trading down and missing out on a potentially elite player, just because the lesser player comes from SA.

You cant leave Ward out of best midfielder discussions so my argument is if Mac and Gibcus go early we have a choice of Ward, Erasmus, Goater, Hobbs at 4, I doubt anyone can confidently say who will be the best in 3 years time.
So 2 of them would be available at Richmonds pick 7.
To get an extra 1st or even 2nd we would be nuts not to consider it vs keeping ROC or Davis.

So if the following scenario arrived 1. Horne, 2. Callaghan, 3. Gibcus I'm going to be auctioning pick 4 because I just got Schoenberg at 25 and Cook at 24.

 

[Betts are off]

AFC just put up an article about the indicative draft order an hour ago. Timing is a bit strange considering they could have done it in 26 hours for the close of trade period.

Might be a indication of a bit of action coming in this space this afternoon!

Or you know, maybe i'm just super bored...

Probably the latter!

 

[Disco Fox]

AFC just put up an article about the indicative draft order an hour ago. Timing is a bit strange considering they could have done it in 26 hours for the close of trade period.

Might be a indication of a bit of action coming in this space this afternoon!

Or you know, maybe i'm just super bored...

Probably the latter!

Haha!! I was just thinking - is this the most boring trade period in recent years?!!

 

[Betts are off]

Haha!! I was just thinking - is this the most boring trade period in recent years?!!

It would have to be up there. I usually find work super hard to focus on during trade week.

This year its trade week that's hard to focus on! Work is a breathe of fresh air comparatively

 

[jackster83]

I wouldn't be so sure about that with Arlo Draper in particular who no doubt would be a target if we do trade down.

I'll be annoyed if Port get him. He looks a talent.

 

[GrommoT]

Well we demanded a first rounder from GWS to go from 4 to 6 with McAsey. Would expect we would need similar…

We had our hand around their family jewels and probably gave it a bit of a squeeze as we were in position to bid on Tom Green (and well might have). There aren't any highly rated Academy prospects this time round, certainly not clubs with picks a few spots below our 4 so nothing to grab a hold of.

 

[GrommoT]

We're not going to be addressing all of our needs in 2021. We'll still be down the bottom in 2022, with a stronger draft hand next year.
...

I would be so sure about that ... if we land Dawson - a seasoned player on the up and tank to play a whole season and probably as good as any player on our list currently - and the club changes their mindset to start competing, we should win many more games than we did this year.

 

[Betts are off]

Have to admit, I just saw the first bit of footage of Matthew Johnson that i've ever seen, and that kid could be a very handy player at AFL level. Has seemingly got a real nice blend of touch and class with his decision making, vision, movement skills and disposal, but also knows how to use his 192cm frame to power through stoppage and arm tackles.

Saw some Pendlebury compo's and would have to agree. The upright running style, spatial awareness and smooth lateral movement did remind me of Pendles. But I thought maybe even with a bit more grunt at stoppage.

Would love to see more if anyone has any clips outside the AFL one on youtube. Wouldn't say he's rocketed to #4, but certainly would be of interest in the 10-15 range

 

[Mutineer]

We hand our hand around their family jewels and probably gave it a bit of a squeeze as we were in position to bid on Tom Green (and well might have). There aren't any highly rated Academy prospects this time round, certainly not clubs with picks a few spots below our 4 so nothing to grab a hold of.

I tell you what though they've got an outstanding Academy lad again this draft, running defender Josh Fahey, pretty sure he'll attract a bid in the front half of the draft at least, has a bazooka for a boot and was a standout in the AFL Academy game against Geelong VFL

 

[GrommoT]

...
can put us in a spot for possibly 2 of Erasmus Goater Sonsie Rachele and Draper
this is my preferred option

Would you take one of those and a likely 2022 mid r1 pick if we get an offer for that with a slight downgrade for pick 4?

We're chockers for list spots already and youth we need to evaluate and getting picks for next year sounds like it will be really handy.

 

[GrommoT]

I tell you what though they've got an outstanding Academy lad again this draft, running defender Josh Fahey, pretty sure he'll attract a bid in the front half of the draft at least, has a bazooka for a boot and was a standout in the AFL Academy game against Geelong VFL

View attachment 1258620

Yeah, I did think of Fahey but GWS have pick 2 and (assuming they keep it), they'll probably just match with 9 if anyone bids on Fahey.

 

[Vader]

I would be so sure about that ... if we land Dawson - a seasoned player on the up and tank to play a whole season and probably as good as any player on our list currently - and the club changes their mindset to start competing, we should win many more games than we did this year.

We're not winning "many more" games than we did this year. We'll probably win a similar number of games +/- 2.

 

[GrommoT]

We're not winning "many more" games than we did this year. We'll probably win a similar number of games +/- 2.

We'll have to wait and see but our team with everyone fit and firing (bar those on the injury list) at the start of this year showed what they were capable of (maybe there's a bit bit of catching other teams off guard) and really went downhill when the younger players went out of puff or got injured.

With another season to build their tanks (and club not tanking), I reckon we'll achieve mid-table next year

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Would you take one of those and a likely 2022 mid r1 pick if we get an offer for that with a slight downgrade for pick 4?

We're chockers for list spots already and youth we need to evaluate and getting picks for next year sounds like it will be really handy.

I’d prob be happy with either

 

[Vader]

We'll have to wait and see but our team with everyone fit and firing (bar those on the injury list) at the start of this year showed what they were capable of (maybe there's a bit bit of catching other teams off guard) and really went downhill when the younger players went out of puff or got injured.

With another season to build their tanks (and club not tanking), I reckon we'll achieve mid-table next year

We're just as likely to go backwards as we are forwards, hence the comment about Adelaide's progression being "non-linear".

We're definitely headed in the right direction, in the long-term - but the short-term ride could still be very turbulent.

 

[Mutineer]

I have not seen him at all but sounds like he would be great - probably gone by pick 15 if we secured that in any trade with Richmond?

Don't think so I'd be pretty confident he likely goes mid/late 2nd round maybe even later but I think he should definitely find a home somewhere.

 

[Murray2503]

Rachele is quick, he's not blistering but he's quick across the ground and even quicker in the mind. He's going to be a very good AFL player. However I wouldn't take him stand alone pick 4, he'd be one I'd trade down for if we decide on that path and bring in the extra first and grab Draper if he is still there which would be a near wet dream for me.

"Rochelle, Rochelle" on YouTube

 

[Mutineer]

Nice player this lad, definitely a Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

comparison with his game style.

Blake Howes

afl.draftcentral.com.au

 

[Sanders]

I just think we’ve already got our 2 Ben Hobbs on our list and in particular Luke Pedlar

there are other great point of difference players in this draft we can concentrate on eg Erasmus ( overhead marking ) , Goater ( speed / Power / versatility) , Draper ( speed/ versatility) , Rachele ( power , creative ) , Sonsie ( versatility , footy iQ)

not all these players will make it. History tells us 50% of them will almost certainly bust

so likelihood of succeeding needs to be incorporated into style and type too

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Nice player this lad, definitely a Jordan Dawson comparison with his game style.

Blake Howes

afl.draftcentral.com.au

LOL ....you do realise there'll probably only be 55 players picked ......think you've highlighted 70 over the course of the year you like

It would be good to get your "condensed" list of preferred players

 

[Jeffcrowe]

not all these players will make it. History tells us 50% of them will almost certainly bust

so likelihood of succeeding needs to be incorporated into style and type too

True , just think we’ve over catered for these types before and now we have a chance to go a different way . There are very good pure inside mids in each draft , I’m sure we will draft another one soon if we need one . Hamish would love nothing better

 

[Mutineer]

LOL ....you do realise there'll probably only be 55 players picked ......think you've highlighted 70 over the course of the year you like

It would be good to get your "condensed" list of preferred players

Already done that if you care to use the search facility.

 

[Vader]

LOL ....you do realise there'll probably only be 55 players picked ......think you've highlighted 70 over the course of the year you like

It would be good to get your "condensed" list of preferred players

There will probably be more than 55, once the RD is taken into account.

 

[Sanders]

Well we demanded a first rounder from GWS to go from 4 to 6 with McAsey. Would expect we would need similar…

that was very specific to that situation. It was a HUGE win for GWS, and so far only a so so outcome for us

by trading ahead of a Tom Green bid, GWS upgraded their future pick 11 to pick 4 Lachie Ash for virtually nothing

we weren’t the winners in that trade, but we did ok.