List Mgmt. 2022 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals: Kinnear & Dalrymple - we march to no drum but our own!

[Ticky009]

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Bruce Ben Brown - I don’t think one of the Carlton forwards was taken top 20

Also some of the GWS and Brisbane

But they were in comprised drafts etc

Hawkins J Brown but they were father and sons etc

Curnow and McKay were top 12 picks, McKay went pick 10, and Curnow from memory was pick 12 I'd have to look it up.

 

[tombomb]

Ed Allan gives me Ed Barlow

Ed Barlow

Age

37

Ht

196cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

9.1

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

3.7

4star

T

2.1

4star

CL

0.7

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.6

5star

vibes.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I will laugh if we draft Hotton with pick 27 today, then we will have 3 pressure small forwards, along with Wicks.

Hawthorn want a team full of half backs and we want a team full of pressure forwards.

I want Hotton, he was the one I wanted the most

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Ed Allan gives me Ed Barlow vibes.

It will either be great or a delisting within 3-4 years, high risk but high reward those types, for every Bont like, there's 25 that aren't

 

[Dubsforsam1]

Maybe we are going to try playing without tall forwards to negate intercept markers and run teams into the ground

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Maybe we are going to try playing without tall forwards to negate intercept markers and run teams into the ground

Or we just do not rate the tall options this year like our recruiters have been saying and despite some wanting to take tall options, they just are not worth it

 

[BloodySwan]

Ed Allan gives me Ed Barlow vibes.

When a player is talked up and their focus is all around their athletic traits and little else that's always a red flag for me. Football brain >> athletic ability

 

[LukeParkerno1]

When a player is talked up and their focus is all around their athletic traits and little else that's always a red flag for me. Football brain >> athletic ability

I guess he's gone to the right club where there is no rush, they have Sidebottom and J Daicos on the wings.

 

[Callipygian]

Do we need an A grade, Coleman challenger though? Ben Brown (47) and Jack Darling (26) have been capable of kicking a stack of goals. Logan, the best of Amartey/McLean, and someone capable of 30-40 odd goals is maybe going to have to do.

I just don't know what we expect. We're not going to get one of the best KPFs at the draft again in a long time. If we're hoping to be up the top for a while, the best we'll be able to do is cobble together picks to maybe get us to around pick 10, but which time if there's gun KPFs around, they'll be gone (or we'll end up picking a mid anyway). We couldn't even get up the board to be in a position to get Jefferson (we probably had other targets anyway). We're also not in a position to win the big names at the trade table without COLA either.

Without going through a long rebuild with heaps of high picks, we're just not going to get the prized KPFs. So you do the best you can. Our 2nd best KPF this year, where we made a GF, was Reid (pick 38).

Good post but don't agree that we won't be able to get a big name at the trade table. I think we are setting ourselves to do just that if we want to. Next year we could offer two firsts (our 2023 and 2024 firsts) to get a good player and we'll still have a decent draft hand or adequate capital to match some Academy bids (perhaps outside the top 10).

***

We'll take 2 tonight, 1-2 tomorrow at the rookie draft (most likely just one and then save a spot for the SSP) plus a Cat B rookie (i.e. Edwards).

***

I don't see Barnett lasting until our pick but you never know. Ditto George. Still plenty of other good options: Hustwaite, Cowan, Hotton, Gilbey, Gilbee, Ryan, Hayes etc. Then there'll be other decent options at our 3rd pick: maybe van Es or Keeler, Munkara, Teal, D'Aloia, Lemmey or - most likely - someone we haven't heard of.

I'm happy to grab a ruck in the rookie draft - plenty of promising options: Knobel, Madden (GWS will pre-sign him most likely), Verrall, Foster, Broadbent, Boyd, Maxwell. Surely at least one of those will be availalble and we will rate enough to warrant a rookie pick?

 

[Shaq_01]

Do we need an A grade, Coleman challenger though? Ben Brown (47) and Jack Darling (26) have been capable of kicking a stack of goals. Logan, the best of Amartey/McLean, and someone capable of 30-40 odd goals is maybe going to have to do.

I just don't know what we expect. We're not going to get one of the best KPFs at the draft again in a long time. If we're hoping to be up the top for a while, the best we'll be able to do is cobble together picks to maybe get us to around pick 10, but which time if there's gun KPFs around, they'll be gone (or we'll end up picking a mid anyway). We couldn't even get up the board to be in a position to get Jefferson (we probably had other targets anyway). We're also not in a position to win the big names at the trade table without COLA either.

Without going through a long rebuild with heaps of high picks, we're just not going to get the prized KPFs. So you do the best you can. Our 2nd best KPF this year, where we made a GF, was Reid (pick 38).

Unless we have academy KPF who is a monster and goes early

Which we can make a bid for

 

[caesar88]

Hate to play party pooper but I still feel like last night was not the premeditated, cunning evil from Beatson & co that many seem to think it is. It felt like more of a chaotic scramble, and whilst I appreciate our ruthlessness in taking down two other clubs picks as part of that scramble, it's still not ideal. Clearly we were desperately trying to organise a trade, and we were on the phones pretty much the entire time. So bidding on a rival player is the proven way to buy yourself that time.

So then you think about what prospects linked to other clubs you'd be happy ending up with in the unlikely event that club chooses not to match it. I think it just so happened the two we liked and would've been happy ending up with came from GWS and the Crows.

Yeah it worked out nicely that we got a little F U in to the Crows, but Giants have done nothing to us (if you think Beatson would give a damn that Blakey - a top 7 prospect - was bid on at 10, then you aren't giving him enough credit.) If we were really trying to be the Machiavellian masterminds people seem to think we are, we would've bid on one of the Davey brothers, as our beef with Dodoro would be far greater than either GWS or Adelaide.

I'd sum it up not as cunning genius but some improvisation mixed with unapologetic self-interest, which still made for clever use of the process. And the resulting draft hand that we got from it was the most pleasing thing to come out of it for me.

 

[Callipygian]

Today let's revel in the dastardly moves we put on GWS last night, but they'll remember this and we should expect payback in the coming years. I've always felt that there's been an unspoken pact between the 4 Northern Academy teams not to bid on each other's players early, but now that that compact has been broken by us last night, I expect sharpened knives at our throats especially from the Giants' end.

There has been a little bit of history of our bidding on one another's Academy talents: Blakey, Cummings etc (but, notably, not Green). I agree this is a bit different because the pick came earlier than expected. However it wasn't motivated by spite. I'm sure we would have preferred to do this to a different club. I think we were executing a very specific plan - to trade out our first pick but ensure that we still got the guy we wanted there (Konstanty) at our second pick when we knew GWS also wanted him and they had a pick between our two picks. I don't think we were just filling time like SOS in 2019.

I agree that GWS won't forget this and there may be some payback down the track but I don't think we have started a full-on war. Certainly GWS were very gracious commenting today that they saw it as a bid that we were entitled and justified to make. It does mean their draft strategy was flawed and they got caught out.

Conversely, our draft strategy was brilliant and very well thought out - not for the first time! Hats off again to the Chris Keane and KB for this strategising. (I'm crediting Dalrymple for finding Konstanty.) Sharpest move by anyone since we traded out and back in our 2nd rounder with West Coast so we could get Rowbottom and pay for Blakey in the same draft.

 

[BloodySwan]

Keeler is the player we need, not Barnett. Key forward who can pinch in the ruck is a lot more value to us than an all out ruck.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Keeler is the player we need, not Barnett. Key forward who can pinch in the ruck is a lot more value to us than an all out ruck.

Well at least we got Konstanty if we decide to get the one bloke I don't want us to go near in Keeler!

 

[Millky95]

Keeler is the player we need, not Barnett. Key forward who can pinch in the ruck is a lot more value to us than an all out ruck.

I'd disagree. Hickey doesn't have long left (2 years max, imo) and Ladhams might spend half of that suspended. After that our best ruck hasn't played a game yet. Or Reid

 

[Callipygian]

Hate to play party pooper but I still feel like last night was not the premeditated, cunning evil from Beatson & co that many seem to think it is. It felt like more of a chaotic scramble, and whilst I appreciate our ruthlessness in taking down two other clubs picks as part of that scramble, it's still not ideal. Clearly we were desperately trying to organise a trade, and we were on the phones pretty much the entire time. So bidding on a rival player is the proven way to buy yourself that time.

So then you think about what prospects linked to other clubs you'd be happy ending up with in the unlikely event that club chooses not to match it. I think it just so happened the two we liked and would've been happy ending up with came from GWS and the Crows.

Yeah it worked out nicely that we got a little F U in to the Crows, but Giants have done nothing to us (if you think Beatson would give a damn that Blakey - a top 7 prospect - was bid on at 10, then you aren't giving him enough credit.) If we were really trying to be the Machiavellian masterminds people seem to think we are, we would've bid on one of the Davey brothers, as our beef with Dodoro would be far greater than either GWS or Adelaide.

I'd sum it up not as cunning genius but some improvisation mixed with unapologetic self-interest, which still made for clever use of the process. And the resulting draft hand that we got from it was the most pleasing thing to come out of it for me.

Looks like we see it a bit differently. In your favour, your theory accounts for us using up so much time on the clock. But I still think that bid on Rowston was a preconceived tactic to get Konstanty. We may have been buying time with the Michalanney bid while we were auctioning our pick to the highest bidder and extracting an extra concession from Hawthorn after telling them about a rival offer.

 

[BloodySwan]

I'd disagree. Hickey doesn't have long left (2 years max, imo) and Ladhams might spend half of that suspended. After that our best ruck hasn't played a game yet. Or Reid

Yeah but Reid and Buddy are likely gone this year. Too much to place on McDonald alone and McLean and Amartey still have a lot of improvement left.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yeah but Reid and Buddy are likely gone this year. Too much to place on McDonald alone and McLean and Amartey still have a lot of improvement left.

Amartey who I don’t rate much is likely to be just as good as Keeler. Just don’t see his type as a need at all.

 

[Millky95]

Yeah but Reid and Buddy are likely gone this year. Too much to place on McDonald alone and McLean and Amartey still have a lot of improvement left.

Think most of the goal kicking would actually be put on Heeney, Papley and probably Hayward. We are arguably more dynamic when Buddy isn't in the side. Our mids need a winning ruck to even give our forwards any supply at all

 

[Bloods86]

Keeler is the player we need, not Barnett. Key forward who can pinch in the ruck is a lot more value to us than an all out ruck.

In 1 year, if Buddy and Reid go, we'll have 3 KPFs all probably playing in seniors and none in reserves. But at worst, if injury hit, you can make do with Heeney as a target, or given we'll have at least a couple of KPDs in reserves (2 of Francis/Gould/Edwards), you could play one of them, and swing a McCartin or Blakey forward at a pinch.

In 1 year, we'll have Ladhams as a ruck, and then IDK, McAndrew? I suspect a re-shuffle like the above would be less worse than rucking Amartey full-time (since McLean doesn't even ruck at reserves level really).

Put it simply, we can cover a KPF injury more than a ruck absence. So I'd prefer Barnett who is a ruck, but can also go forward. Except Barnett will be gone, so I'm happy with Keeler if that's the best we think we can do, or just going a pure ruck later on. Feel like we should have addressed both this year with Barnett and 1 of Keeler/Gruzewski (we probably had that chance last night, not any more).

 

[hairy biker]

I know it's probably been said before, but I am still in awe over the machiavellian shenanigans from the Swans draft team. To damage Adelaide's draft hand - probably as payback for screwing us with the Dawson trade - by using the very pick we got from them for Dawson was so delicious. And then we give that pick away anyway lol. It also helps that the Adelaide player was rated so it was win/win for us.

I'm thinking that after so many drafts where we have out-thought the competition, the other clubs must be watching us very keenly on draft night to see what we will pull out of the hat. It is becoming quite entertaining.

I am guessing that one of the draft team (not necessarily KB) is some kind of an evil genius who enjoys 3D chess.

I'm tipping this bloke;

Unsung hero of the night;
View attachment 1563241
Chris Keane, who is officially our Senior Recruiting Analyst and the guy credited with the Nick Blakey trade shenanigans.

I think it's fairly safe to say he had a lot to do with our moves tonight.

So well done Kinnear, Simon & Chris for a most enjoyable evening of chicanery.

Seems the trio have their roles nicely divided, whilst still operating as a team.

Simplistically Kinnear does the trades, Dalrymple does the picks and Chris does the shenanigans.

 

[Bloods86]

Amartey who I don’t rate much is likely to be just as good as Keeler. Just don’t see his type as a need at all.

I think you have zero basis to say that. Amartey a 2nd round rookie pick, vs the much more highly rated Keeler. In any case, Amartey's just gone 23, got top 5 VFL goalkicking while playing much less games (including some he left early due to injury), so even if he was just another Amartey, I'm not sure that's going to be a bad thing. He certainly seems more highly rated.

Unless you've got a magical solution to the upcoming lack of KPF depth, maybe a "we'll just grab one of the guns next year by finishing bottom 4" or "we'll just trade one in despite losing COLA".

 

[grimlock]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/draft/afl-draft-2022-day-2-all-the-late-mail-full-order-and-every-pick-as-it-happens/news-story/4bc65031c640f68466a0fd2340981dbb?amp

This report makes it sound even spicier than we originally thought

The Swans were the chief entertainers on draft night with their bid on Giants Academy prospect Harry Rowston, and Kinnear Beatson and his list management team had their arch-rivals backed into corner.

And Sydney, who left the Giants with no leg to stand, offered them a solution to the predicament before they made the bid – but it was very one-sided.

The potential bid, which was reported by News Corp earlier this month, had caught the Giants unawares.

Sydney phoned the Giants before the fateful bid with an ultimatum: either you lose a first-round pick this year matching Rowston, or you lose one next year.

One of the mooted offers was for the Swans to nab the Giants’ future first selection tied to Richmond and the Swans to slide back from 16 to 20.

It is believed another potential deal put forward by the Swans involved the Giants giving up two first round picks this year for the Swans’ pick 16 — a big sacrifice just to get ahead of the bid.

The Giants were unwilling to pay a king’s ransom, particularly in next year’s draft where the talent is rated highly, so they declined Sydney’s offer and sacrificed their pick in the teens to secure Rowston.

It is understood Rowston’s father was out on the tractor on their Binya farm in country New South Wales when the bid came through, such was the family’s surprise.

 

[Callipygian]

Amartey who I don’t rate much is likely to be just as good as Keeler. Just don’t see his type as a need at all.

Keeler has a high ceiling and low floor. Amartey has a big range (from where he's performing now to where we'd like him to be) but ceiling is lower and his floor is higher.

 

[RUNVS]

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/draft/afl-draft-2022-day-2-all-the-late-mail-full-order-and-every-pick-as-it-happens/news-story/4bc65031c640f68466a0fd2340981dbb?amp

This report makes it sound even spicier than we originally thought

"Give us $3 million or we will shoot you in the head"