2022 Federal Election Watch

[Gralin]

Part 2 can be found here

2022 Federal Election Watch - Part 2 the count

Welcome to Part 2 of the Federal Election Watch Part 1 can be found here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-federal-election-watch.1306808/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[beema limapep]

ABC
Leigh Sales
Antony Green
David Speers
Annabel Crabb
Andrew Probyn
Laura Tingle
Tanya Plibersek
Simon Birmingham

SEVEN
Matt Riley
Natalie Barr
Jason Clare
Katy Gallagher
Chris Bowen
Christopher Pyne
Michaelia Cash
David Littleproud

NINE
Peter Overton
Alicia Loxley
Chris Uhlmann
Julie Bishop
Bill Shorten
Jane Hume
Matt Canavan
Kate Ellis

TEN
Sandra Sully
Peter van Onselen
Waleed Aly
Hugh Riminton
Jan Fran
Anne Ruston
Ed Husic
Hollie Hughes
Stephen Jones

SKY
Peta Credlin
Andrew Clennell
Graham Richardson
Bridget McKenzie
James McGrath
Joel Fitzgibbon
Murray Watt

Jason Clare on 7 with Michaelia Cash for the melts - 7 it is for me.

 

[Festerz]

Jason Clare on 7 with Michaelia Cash for the melts - 7 it is for me.

Michaelia Cash?

Just make sure you have the sound system turned off and the picture quality set to SD.

 

[Schneebly11]

NINE
Peter Overton
Alicia Loxley
Chris Uhlmann
Julie Bishop
Bill Shorten
Jane Hume
Matt Canavan
Kate Ellis

There could be some fireworks there.

If the Coalition lose and teals win big Canavan/Hume could lose it at Bishop, who’s basically not backing the Libs anymore and has said if teals win it’s because the Liberals are too shit now.

Also Canavan v Shorten, but civil wars are always the nastiest, Canavan or Hume accusing Bishop of treason and betrayal would be my match up of the night.

 

[DaRick]

Albanese poised for victory as Morrison struggles to save himself

Scott Morrison may be praying for a second miracle win, but last week he conceded Australians were looking for a change in the way government operates.

thenewdaily.com.au

This little tidbit raised my eyebrows:

According to a Liberal source, the party estimates Morrison is a 3 per cent drag on its vote.

I knew that he would be a net liability, but geez.

On another note, The Greens had been keeping themselves on a leash during this campaign, but have now made themselves look like crazy ideologues again via their seven conditions for support - many of which the ALP couldn't agree to, anyway. Also, Adam Bandt apparently thinks it's a good idea to make his presence known in Hunter. No Adam, it's really not. Sure, he hasn't led a convoy there, but I can't fathom why he thinks it's a good idea to visit 'coalie' electorates. He won't convince anyone. I know I've offended many Greens supporters saying this, and I sincerely regret that, but still.

Some implausible polls have come in, saying that the LNP is competitive in Warringah and weak favourites in Eden-Monaro. I can't imagine Warringah voting for an outright bigot in Deves, and I can't imagine Eden-Monaro backing in someone who did a runner while half of their electorate was on fire. Methinks the Eden-Monaro poll relies on wrong assumptions RE preferences.

I can believe that Fowler will be tighter than many expect, and I'm not particularly fond of Keneally, but cost-of-living issues should help the ALP cling on, though with a significantly reduced margin. My instincts suggest that it might be a boilover though, especially since Dai Le is technically an independent.

 

[Pessimistic]

Albanese poised for victory as Morrison struggles to save himself

Scott Morrison may be praying for a second miracle win, but last week he conceded Australians were looking for a change in the way government operates.

thenewdaily.com.au

Scromo has only sounded lucid for 3 weeks of this campaign.

Evers since ‘getting the govt out of our lives’ he’s just sounded unhinged and desperate

 

[Rotayjay]

Agree that public service needs to be bigger
But I'm unclear on a lot of the non front facing roles and whether these roles deliver value. I have the same question of my own middle and upper managers above me. I'm not convinced that they do anything useful.
Totally agree on ending contracts and outsourcing unless there is a transparently demonstrated ability of the private company to deliver outcomes (including costs required)

To this day, if you ring Centrelink there is an even chance the person who picks up the phone is an Australian working for a foreign call centre corporation on near-minimum wage with little training and less than one year of experience. It's a disgrace.

 

[Millky95]

ABC
Leigh Sales
Antony Green
David Speers
Annabel Crabb
Andrew Probyn
Laura Tingle
Tanya Plibersek
Simon Birmingham

SEVEN
Matt Riley
Natalie Barr
Jason Clare
Katy Gallagher
Chris Bowen
Christopher Pyne
Michaelia Cash
David Littleproud

NINE
Peter Overton
Alicia Loxley
Chris Uhlmann
Julie Bishop
Bill Shorten
Jane Hume
Matt Canavan
Kate Ellis

TEN
Sandra Sully
Peter van Onselen
Waleed Aly
Hugh Riminton
Jan Fran
Anne Ruston
Ed Husic
Hollie Hughes
Stephen Jones

SKY
Peta Credlin
Andrew Clennell
Graham Richardson
Bridget McKenzie
James McGrath
Joel Fitzgibbon
Murray Watt

ABC wins because of Antony Green

 

[Punt rd end]

I'll be at the G checking the ABC app hopefully a double win

 

[Rob R]

The actual public service cut is $3.3bn, which means axing 6600 jobs in Centrelink, Health and Education. Anywhere else is pissant.

Public service hierarchy will ensure Canberra is protected at all costs so it will be already massively understaffed centrelink, defence, etc organisations that will be hit.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NSWCROW]

7 news with morrisons junk halfway down it's throat

 

[Rob R]

This little tidbit raised my eyebrows:



I knew that he would be a net liability, but geez.

On another note, The Greens had been keeping themselves on a leash during this campaign, but have now made themselves look like crazy ideologues again via their seven conditions for support - many of which the ALP couldn't agree to, anyway. Also, Adam Bandt apparently thinks it's a good idea to make his presence known in Hunter. No Adam, it's really not. Sure, he hasn't led a convoy there, but I can't fathom why he thinks it's a good idea to visit 'coalie' electorates. He won't convince anyone. I know I've offended many Greens supporters saying this, and I sincerely regret that, but still.

Some implausible polls have come in, saying that the LNP is competitive in Warringah and weak favourites in Eden-Monaro. I can't imagine Warringah voting for an outright bigot in Deves, and I can't imagine Eden-Monaro backing in someone who did a runner while half of their electorate was on fire. Methinks the Eden-Monaro poll relies on wrong assumptions RE preferences.

I can believe that Fowler will be tighter than many expect, and I'm not particularly fond of Keneally, but cost-of-living issues should help the ALP cling on, though with a significantly reduced margin. My instincts suggest that it might be a boilover though, especially since Dai Le is technically an independent.

Eden Monaro is apparently based on UAP/ONP preferences but whilst the incumbent was pretty well a non entity until the election was called, noone way does a seat impacted by bushfires, and with a growing public service voting pool that the LNP just threatened go against the national swing.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[sataris]

To this day, if you ring Centrelink there is an even chance the person who picks up the phone is an Australian working for a foreign call centre corporation on near-minimum wage with little training and less than one year of experience. It's a disgrace.

My mum has been bitching to me about this a lot.

"if this is where our tax dollars go, then why are we paying taxes?"

 

[Maggie5]

How does enabling more people into the housing market provide any extra housing ?

I was wondering something similar. How does one downsizing and selling help the market when I then compete with others (with money from their super and first time buyer grant) buying a smaller home?

 

[sataris]

Public service hierarchy will ensure Canberra is protected at all costs so it will be already massively understaffed centrelink, defence, etc organisations that will be hit.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

No government on earth will ever reduce spending on defence.

it's a permanent fixture of the budget, that can only get larger.

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Yes but he made short work of that basketball court

Well he had to get that in order he knew with his governments response the residents were going to need to use that basketball court as emergency housing for months if not years.

 

[Gough]

My mum has been bitching to me about this a lot.

"if this is where our tax dollars go, then why are we paying taxes?"

I'd argue that's a deliberate design of government policy.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Heard from two sources that both Swan and Pearce are gone for LNP

Huge swings predicted

 

[madmug]

Maybe defence could take a cut

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Maybe Defence Procurement, they are an expensive joke.

 

[Millky95]

Heard from two sources that both Swan and Pearce are gone for LNP

Huge swings predicted

I can't see it

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I can't see it

Pretty good sources who have knowledge of most recent polling

 

[Millky95]

Pretty good sources who have knowledge of most recent polling

I want to believe you, but I can't see it happening after 2019. Still wearing those scars

 

[Baltimore Jack]

I want to believe you, but I can't see it happening after 2019. Still wearing those scars

I hear ya

 

[Ice-Wolf]

Michaelia Cash?

Just make sure you have the sound system turned off and the picture quality set to SD.

Seven might just be worth it for Pyne trying his darndest to pretend his side isn't losing.

 

[Gough]

I can't see it

I'd hope the arrogance and hubris that surrounded the first year after the last election combined by the cascading failures of the next two should be enough to do it.

 

[Baltimore Jack]