2022 Federal Election Watch

[Gralin]

Part 2 can be found here

2022 Federal Election Watch - Part 2 the count

Welcome to Part 2 of the Federal Election Watch Part 1 can be found here https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2022-federal-election-watch.1306808/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Pretty good sources who have knowledge of most recent polling

we need to remember polling is different to the actual vote

- some moderate libs will blink at the 11th and not be able to vote ALP/Green/teal

- some moderate libs will think enough will cross in protest, so their switch isnt needed

- some moderate libs will buy the "we cant lose everyone" argument that is currently being made

 

[kaka]

This super for house deposit says all you need to know about Morrison.

Every single time this idea has been brought up, Treasury or any economists has quickly slammed the idea. As this is an ideology ground against industry super funds, the fact that has not been sought as a party policy shows how terrible it is. All this will do is raise property prices, do nothing for 'affordability' or first home buyers and destroy retirement savings.

Morrison would know this. He would have been told this multiple times. However he knows the polls are bad so he needs to do something 'big.'

But he doesnt care. He just wants to win, and doesnt care about the damage he does.

If people vote him back in, this shows how far this country has fallen. We would finally become the banana republic at the arse end of the world.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

we need to remember polling is different to the actual vote

- some moderate libs will blink at the 11th and not be able to vote ALP/Green/teal

- some moderate libs will think enough will cross in protest, so their switch isnt needed

- some moderate libs will buy the "we cant lose everyone" argument that is currently being made

For sure Ned, but I'm told the swings (as they sit now) are pretty big

Agree, election day is the real indicator

 

[kaka]

we need to remember polling is different to the actual vote

- some moderate libs will blink at the 11th and not be able to vote ALP/Green/teal

- some moderate libs will think enough will cross in protest, so their switch isnt needed

- some moderate libs will buy the "we cant lose everyone" argument that is currently being made

There are also people who vote for the 'winning party' so they can back the winner.

There are a lot of stupid reasons why people vote the way they do.

 

[CakeEater]

I can't see it

Pearce i can.

Linda Aitken the libs candidate isnt the greatest and her name recognition stems from losing.

Saying this quietly, he who shall not be named had a better chance of winning.

 

[Pie eyed]

There's a local legend that in Bennelong in 2007 so many local Chinese laid down so much money on Maxine McKew winning the seat (given the long odds) that they actually voted John Howard out as a sitting Prime Minister.

They voted John Howard out because he was a campaigner and liar like Morrison, Dragged the country into an illegitimate war which cost 100's of lives and billions of dollars, was a handmaiden for the Exclusive Brethren cult, enacted legislation to make same sex marriage illegal in the first place at the stroke of a pen and wasted an entire mining boom on bolstering his own popularity.

 

[Pie eyed]

There are also people who vote for the 'winning party' so they can back the winner.

There are a lot of stupid reasons why people vote the way they do.

Because "X" looks like a nice young man/girl" regardless that he/she is a piece of shit.

Basically the same way we got lumbered with that dickhead Karl on morning TV.
A room full of senile women were used to select him from a handful of other vapid dickheads.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

With the TV panels, you've also got to consider who will be talking the most. ABC: Anthony Green. End of debate.

You just watch the ABC for the Antony Green drinking game.

 

[beema limapep]

Heard from two sources that both Swan and Pearce are gone for LNP

Huge swings predicted

Swan suprises me a little. Pearce less so.

Rumors that the LNP are not looking good in SE QLD too.

 

[beema limapep]

You just watch the ABC for the Antony Green drinking game.

Do tell.

 

[Dave]

zero chance of dutton losing

Essington is more likely to win the flag than he is to lose

 

[beema limapep]

I want to believe you, but I can't see it happening after 2019. Still wearing those scars

2019 and 2022 are chalk and cheese and the LNP know it. Otherwise they wouldn't have backflipped on the 5.1% pay rise 4 days before the election.

Put the polls aside, all the intel looks bad if you are LNP.

 

[beez]

You just watch the ABC for the Antony Green drinking game.

As much as I enjoy the ABC and it will be first port of call on Saturday night, Antony Green is entirely overrated as a presenter. Sure, he may have intimate knowledge of electorates and can explain swings and extrapolate data, but for someone who has done his job for so long, it is infuriating as a viewer how seemingly unpracticed he is at using technology.

 

[beema limapep]

we need to remember polling is different to the actual vote

- some moderate libs will blink at the 11th and not be able to vote ALP/Green/teal

- some moderate libs will think enough will cross in protest, so their switch isnt needed

- some moderate libs will buy the "we cant lose everyone" argument that is currently being made

I think the effect of the last 2 years individually hitting home on moderate Libs and swinging voters through the pandemic, and cost of living will override your points above. A swing of 5% amongst them and swinging voters is pretty minor given the state of things.

 

[Major Colvin]

Roy Morgan polls today have the 2PP tightening to 53-47 (and have tightened the last two weeks) - but apparently Morgan have changed their methodology to last election preferences (same methodology used three weeks ago would apparently have Labor at 56.5 2PP). It seems like they're self-correcting a 2-3% margin of error in these numbers to reflect what happened in 2019.

Kevin Bonham an independent pollster I follow still has the ALP's 2PP solid at 54.

Preferences will interesting but I think we can expect the following:

• UAP to preference LNP in marginal seats
• ONP to preference LNP in most seats
• GRNs to preference IND over Labor

Some Independents aren't putting preferences on their HTV cards - which is potentially dangerous (as Monique Ryan has done here in Kooyong)

The minor parties are aiming for power in a hung parliament and realise taking seats off Labor probably going to be the best way to do it.

 

[Ohitsthatguy]

As much as I enjoy the ABC and it will be first port of call on Saturday night, Antony Green is entirely overrated as a presenter. Sure, he may have intimate knowledge of electorates and can explain swings and extrapolate data, but for someone who has done his job for so long, it is infuriating as a viewer how seemingly unpracticed he is at using technology.

That's part of the charm

 

[cartwright]

Betoota with the headline of the year

PM Who Went to Hawaii for a Two Week Beach Holiday In The Middle of Record-Breaking Bushfires, And Then Lied to the Media By Denying He'd Ever Left the Country, Until He Was Caught Out Lying Because He Couldn't Resist Getting a Photo with Some Aussie

CLANCY OVERELL | Editor | CONTACT HAVE I EVER LIED TO YOU? Scotty has come out this week to fix his own reputation amongst voters, after countless polls pointed to the fact that the number one issue that Australians have with this current government is the bloke leading it. “It’s not a...

www.betootaadvocate.com

 

[Hojuman]

Rolling out Johnny Howard reeks of desperation for mind.

I hope he lives to see Aus become a republic.

 

[Forward Press]

As much as I enjoy the ABC and it will be first port of call on Saturday night, Antony Green is entirely overrated as a presenter. Sure, he may have intimate knowledge of electorates and can explain swings and extrapolate data, but for someone who has done his job for so long, it is infuriating as a viewer how seemingly unpracticed he is at using technology.

It's what sets him apart - his knowledge is unparalleled and I'd rather him and his fumbling with an iPad than some sleaze with neither deep knowledge nor impartiality that is slick with the graphics.

He gets more excited about unforeseen voting patterns and unfolding booth counts than his particular party winning.

 

[Forward Press]

Swan suprises me a little. Pearce less so.

Rumors that the LNP are not looking good in SE QLD too.

Swan and Pearce have long been predicted to fall - they are held on low single digit margins and their long time members have left. Difficult to see any more than those two in WA changing hands.

However, I am less confident about Pearce than Swan turning over to the ALP.

 

[Pie eyed]

As much as I enjoy the ABC and it will be first port of call on Saturday night, Antony Green is entirely overrated as a presenter. Sure, he may have intimate knowledge of electorates and can explain swings and extrapolate data, but for someone who has done his job for so long, it is infuriating as a viewer how seemingly unpracticed he is at using technology.

Green is an analyst, not a presenter.
As such he does his job better than anyone else in the country on election night.

Check out the piece of shit Credlin on Election night......she'll be spraying acid and lashing out with her whippy tail like a chained alien,
If only Ripley could drive a robot forklift through her skull.....

 

[NSWCROW]

Pearce i can.

Linda Aitken the libs candidate isnt the greatest and her name recognition stems from losing.

Saying this quietly, he who shall not be named had a better chance of winning.

Dr Tobias Funke

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

Eden Monaro is apparently based on UAP/ONP preferences but whilst the incumbent was pretty well a non entity until the election was called, noone way does a seat impacted by bushfires, and with a growing public service voting pool that the LNP just threatened go against the national swing.

On SM-A125F using BigFooty.com mobile app

A good chunk of the coast affected was leaning Labor in 2019.

Eden-Monaro (Key Seat) - Federal Electorate, Candidates, Results

Overview of the Eden-Monaro (Key Seat) electorate in the Federal election 2022

www.abc.net.au

I can see the Eden and Merimbula booths changing to Labor.
That whole coast not only gets the public servents from Canberra heading over the ranges for a holiday along with Victorians. The loss of income over that summer would be still fresh in thier memories.

 

[beez]

That's part of the charm

It's what sets him apart - his knowledge is unparalleled and I'd rather him and his fumbling with an iPad than some sleaze with neither deep knowledge nor impartiality that is slick with the graphics.

He gets more excited about unforeseen voting patterns and unfolding booth counts than his particular party winning.

You're both psychos

 

[Forward Press]

Do tell.