List Mgmt. 2022 Trade & List Management Thread II

[giantroo]

Spoiler: Confirmed Trades

Spoiler: Draft Pick order

AFL Draft - AFL.com.au

Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information

www.afl.com.au

Spoiler: Key dates

AFL Trade Period Key Dates - AFL.com.au

When does Free Agency begin? How long does the Trade Period go for? Find out on AFL.com.au.

www.afl.com.au

Key Dates:

Friday 07 October at 5.00pm
Close of AFL Restricted Free Agency Offer and Unrestricted Free Agency Period.

Monday 10 October
NAB AFL Draft Nominations open (9am)
AFL Restricted Free Agency Matching Offer 3 Day Period Ends (5pm)

Wednesday 12 October at 7.30pm
AFL Trade Period closes – players and selections


Thursday 03 November at 9.00am
AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) commences

Wednesday 09 November at 5.00pm

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) closes

Friday 11 November at 9.00am

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) commences

Tuesday 15 November by 5.00pm

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) closes
AFL Trade Period closes – selections only

Monday 21 November by 3.00pm

NAB AFL Draft Nominations close

Monday 28 November at 7.10pm

2022 NAB AFL Draft Round One (Venue TBC)

Father/Son, Academy & NGA and Players Bidding opens.

Tuesday 29 November

AFL Trade Period – selections only (5.45pm to 6.30pm)

2022 NAB AFL National Draft Round two until completion (7pm)

Rookie Upgrade Period opens (10pm)

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (3) commences (10pm)

Rookie Upgrade Period closes (11pm)

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (3) closes (11pm)

Wednesday 30 November

NAB AFL Pre-Season Draft (3pm, online)
NAB AFL Rookie Draft (3.20pm, online)

Thursday 01 December by 4.00pm

Final AFL Club List Lodgement

 

[Tas]

Its not possible for us to get pick 2 from port and for them to still have their future first to give us, because west coast will want that as part of their deal.

Unless they throw in a player WCE wants.

 

[The Filth Wizard]

The problem with all these multi club proposals is that Port have to give up 2 quality players for it to work - and they're struggling to cough up one as it is. Can't see that happening.

I'd be disappointed if we haven't bypassed Port and gone straight to the managers of Butters/Bergman/Sinn and talked serious money and opportunities.

Yep, two out. And considering Bonner is on the trade list so they can make their own list numbers work it’s something Port need to have worked out tomorrow.

 

[krakouers]

Pick 18 to us bonner to west coast

If we got say picks 12 + 15, would we do a deal with WCE to swap their 2x 2nds for one of them as a separate deal?

 

[JGreezy]

I care if we are paying some of the price for Port to WCE to get 2 and not getting the benefit of trading down.

We are not getting pick 12 (hopefully GWS are giving more than this) and giving it away for free unless Port are paying us back for it.

We're trading pick 12 for ports F1. In the 3 team version we weren't getting that.

 

[Tas]

I don't get this keep pick 1 at all cost mentality. If you can turn it into a bunch of players/first rounders then I would do it. eg. Hunter clark

11

Hunter Clark

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.9

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

/ top 5 pick and a later first rounder. If you go through past drafts, how many times has pick 1 ended up being the best player from that draft?

2013: Bontempelli - pick 4 (Boyd pick 1)
2014: Petracca - pick 2 (McCatiin Pick 1)
2015: Oliver - pick 4, McKay - pick 10 ( Weitering pick 1)
2016: McCluggage - pick 3 and bunch of better players than Mcgrath pick 1
2017: LDU - pick 4 (Rayner pick 1)
2018: Walsh 1, but bunch of great players after that. close call on who will be best

Then go back further and pick 1 is rarely if ever, the best player from the draft class. Seelwood 7, Dangerfield 10, Dusty 3, Cunnington 5.

Chances of getting a star is no better at 1 than it is at any of the top 5 IMO. Plus you get the added "bonus" of the media scrutiny they will get. case in point this year with JHF

It is a bit like saying you are never going to compete against someone who wins Powerball with a 9-5 wage so you are better off getting on the dole and sinking that in Powerball tickets. There will likely be someone who becomes better, but it is a matter of probability, how many picks would you need to have a high confidence of hitting a better player? You aren't going to cover the spread with converting a pick 1 into lots of lesser picks.

Yes, pick 1 is rarely the best player in the draft pool, or doesn't work out that way, but you have to factor that player goes to the worst club and they are usually the worst club because they can't develop players.

Pick 1 isn't a guarantee of getting the best player, it is a risk averse pick where you go for a much higher probability of getting a good talent, the major problem is creating the right environment for that player to blossom. The first few years is critical in a player's development. Some can overcome significant setbacks, a lot can't.

 

[buttox]

It is a bit like saying you are never going to compete against someone who wins Powerball with a 9-5 wage so you are better off getting on the dole and sinking that in Powerball tickets. There will likely be someone who becomes better, but it is a matter of probability, how many picks would you need to have a high confidence of hitting a better player? You aren't going to cover the spread with converting a pick 1 into lots of lesser picks.

Yes, pick 1 is rarely the best player in the draft pool, or doesn't work out that way, but you have to factor that player goes to the worst club and they are usually the worst club because they can't develop players.

Pick 1 isn't a guarantee of getting the best player, it is a risk averse pick where you go for a much higher probability of getting a good talent, the major problem is creating the right environment for that player to blossom. The first few years is critical in a player's development. Some can overcome significant setbacks, a lot can't.

However, you still ge

I think if you extended the window out to top 5 picks you could say the best players fall in that range most years.
Its the reason Brady has asked for a top 5 pick for jhf.

 

[Masked Avenger]

Ollie Henry, barely in the comp a minute, wants to play with his brother. Ditto Horne Francis who has a type of home sickness that apparently can't be cured at the Adelaide Crows. Rory Lobb

7

Rory Lobb

Age

31

Ht

207cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

4.4

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.4

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

11.3

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

3.3

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.6

3star

likes the cooler climate of Victoria but only the type that swirls on the other side of the West Gate Bridge. At this rate, why have free agency?

 

[Rooboy 96]

Okay what do people think of this:

Port get: Rioli, JHF
Port lose: Pick 8, F1, Sinn

North get: pick 2, pick 3, F1 (Port), Sinn
North lose: JHF, pick 1, F3

WCE get: pick 12, pick 8, pick 18
WCE lose: Rioli, pick 2

GWS get pick 1, F3 (NM)
GWS lose pick 3, pick 12, pick 18

My only problem with it is essentially GWS are paying for Rioli and not Port who are still not losing enough. It's the best I could do.

So JHF and 1 for 2 and 3 and a late first next year. Wow let me ask the Magic Trade Dice




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[CharlieMortdecai]

We're trading pick 12 for ports F1. In the 3 team version we weren't getting that.

Is pick 1 worth 3 + 12? And if it is why not just do the deal on its own and keep 12?

 

[Kato]

I like the idea of loading up on next year (also love a death ride)…

Hows JHF for F1 (port) & F1 (wc) & 2nd rounder

I’d say wc F1 would around the mark of their pick 2 but better draft…

Also we still have the best pick this year and 2nd rounder and Cooper…

That 2nd and F3 could go for hunter…

And if Jed is traded then get a draft pick for the 2nd/3rd pick in draft…

Just my 2cents


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[GS WARRIORS]

We're trading pick 12 for ports F1. In the 3 team version we weren't getting that.

No we aren't. Not unless they are giving more back.

We said on Monday - Port need to give up more than 8 and F1. Now Port are giving 8 and F1 and getting Rioli as well.

Maybe if Joyces was still there or whoever signed off on the Hay trade was still around we would agree to it. We aren't paying a 1st to help Port get JHF and Rioli.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

On day 1 Brady said p8 + f1st is not enough. Whether Port think that's unreasonable or not, that's how we value JHF. So:

p8 + f1st + x = JHF

Now maybe x = Sinn, or x = p27 (but they already traded it), or x = p2 - p8 (ie upgrade p8 to p2). Its likely x > Bonner.

The problem with all these multiclub trades is they all seem to start with the premise let's make x = 0.

So to do that somebody other than Port has to lose. Port wants Rioli - let's involve the Eagles and they can take unders for p2.

GWS are interested in p1 - let's get North to trade it for fair value, but then give away a substantial part of that value so WCE get value for p2.

Or there'll be an alternative where GWS pay overs for p1.

At the end of the day Port are going to have to add x themselves, because nobody else is going to take a haircut to send a first year contracted player to his club of choice.

 

[Mjs94]

Ollie Henry, barely in the comp a minute, wants to play with his brother. Ditto Horne Francis who has a type of home sickness that apparently can't be cured at the Adelaide Crows. Rory Lobb likes the cooler climate of Victoria but only the type that swirls on the other side of the West Gate Bridge. At this rate, why have free agency?

Needs to get to the point where a contracted player can request a trade due to homesickness and the club can then negotiate and trade said player to any team in that state.

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

I like the idea of loading up on next year (also love a death ride)…

Hows JHF for F1 (port) & F1 (wc) & 2nd rounder

I’d say wc F1 would around the mark of their pick 2 but better draft…

Also we still have the best pick this year and 2nd rounder and Cooper…

That 2nd and F3 could go for hunter…

And if Jed is traded then get a draft pick for the 2nd/3rd pick in draft…

Just my 2cents


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WC don't want to trade f1. They want to add picks for next year's draft because of (a) they are rebuilding and (b) I've been told there's lots of WA talent next year.

 

[TruRoos7]

No we aren't. Not unless they are giving more back.

We said on Monday - Port need to give up more than 8 and F1. Now Port are giving 8 and F1 and getting Rioli as well.

Maybe if Joyces was still there or whoever signed off on the Hay trade was still around we would agree to it. We aren't paying a 1st to help Port get JHF and Rioli.

Yep Port want GWS involved in the deal so they still only offer up their First and next years First, whilst GWS offer their 3 and 12 for our current first and then we trade 12 and port hand over this years first to WC for Riolli and pick 2.
Then pick 2 comes to us and we get out of all this pick 2 and 3 and ports next years F1.

So effectively WE and GWS and WC are paying for JHF and Riolli to get to port for Pick 8 and 10-15 next year.

What a master stroke if they pull it off!!

 

[JGreezy]

Is pick 1 worth 3 + 12? And if it is why not just do the deal on its own and keep 12?

Because trading 12 for Port's F1 gets the deal for pick 2 done. And we get our pick 1, anyway. No skin off our nose.

 

[JGreezy]

No we aren't. Not unless they are giving more back.

We said on Monday - Port need to give up more than 8 and F1. Now Port are giving 8 and F1 and getting Rioli as well.

Maybe if Joyces was still there or whoever signed off on the Hay trade was still around we would agree to it. We aren't paying a 1st to help Port get JHF and Rioli.

I don't care what Port are giving up.

I care what we are giving up and what we are getting.

Assuming that we were taking Wardlaw with pick 1 and we have JHF. We do this deal and we still have Wardlaw but also Sheezel, Port's F1 and sweetners.

We have traded JHF for Sheezel, Port's F1 and sweetners. I am happy with that.

And Port will have to give more to WC to get the deal done.

 

[GS WARRIORS]

Yep Port want GWS involved in the deal so they still only offer up their First and next years First, whilst GWS offer their 3 and 12 for our current first and then we trade 12 and port hand over this years first to WC for Riolli and pick 2.
Then pick 2 comes to us and we get out of all this pick 2 and 3 and ports next years F1.

So effectively WE and GWS and WC are paying for JHF and Riolli to get to port for Pick 8 and 10-15 next year.

What a master stroke if they pull it off!!

GWS is not paying for. Pick 12 is ours if we trade no 1 to GWS, not GWS's. If fact GWS would be getting a bargain if it is 3 and 12.

 

[TruRoos7]

Because trading 12 for Port's F1 gets the deal for pick 2 done. And we get our pick 1, anyway. No skin off our nose.

But it is it means JHF and Riolli are worth ports 8 this year and next years first rounder.

It’s ****ing genius WE pay for our own player to end up at Poort by cracking this years number 1 pick!

 

[King Hansen]

I don't get this keep pick 1 at all cost mentality. If you can turn it into a bunch of players/first rounders then I would do it. eg. Hunter clark/ top 5 pick and a later first rounder. If you go through past drafts, how many times has pick 1 ended up being the best player from that draft?

2013: Bontempelli - pick 4 (Boyd pick 1)
2014: Petracca - pick 2 (McCatiin Pick 1)
2015: Oliver - pick 4, McKay - pick 10 ( Weitering pick 1)
2016: McCluggage - pick 3 and bunch of better players than Mcgrath pick 1
2017: LDU - pick 4 (Rayner pick 1)
2018: Walsh 1, but bunch of great players after that. close call on who will be best

Then go back further and pick 1 is rarely if ever, the best player from the draft class. Seelwood 7, Dangerfield 10, Dusty 3, Cunnington 5.

Chances of getting a star is no better at 1 than it is at any of the top 5 IMO. Plus you get the added "bonus" of the media scrutiny they will get. case in point this year with JHF

Stop comparing 1 pick to more than 1 pick.

Stats show pick 1s play the most games of all the picks drafted. Facts

 

[Kato]

WC don't want to trade f1. They want to add picks for next year's draft because of (a) they are rebuilding and (b) I've been told there's lots of WA talent next year.

I could see that, but are the WA talent in the top5 next year? I’m not sure…




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[JGreezy]

But it is it means JHF and Riolli are worth ports 8 this year and next years first rounder.

It’s ******* genius WE pay for our own player to end up at Poort by cracking this years number 1 pick!

Port will be giving up pick 33 and a player or two and later picks.

We were looking at 8 + F1 + negotiating picks a player for JHF.

Port will still give that up.

 

[TruRoos7]

I could see that, but are the WA talent in the top5 next year? I’m not sure…




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Would we have traded out this years First rounder for something known of full well we could be bottom 4 again, I highly doubt it unless you’re using it for someone like JHF to come home.!
So why would WC trade it out when there is a distinct possibility they end up last next year and could split it then or get the best kid in the land next year.
Not like WC are targeting anyone that warrants a 1-4 pick this year that wants to go home.

 

[tiltraise]

Yep - if 12 goes to WCE, Port need to give us a good young player. If we keep 12, Georgiardis goes to WCE.

Either way Port need to give up a good young player.

I think Port might have the option to take on most of Haynes contract instead of losing a player with GWS chipping in extra currency needed to complete the deal.

 

[TruRoos7]

Port will be giving up pick 33 and a player or two and later picks.

We were looking at 8 + F1 + negotiating picks a player for JHF.

Port will still give that up.

Nothing indicates that anywhere!!