List Mgmt. 2022 Trade & List Management Thread II

[giantroo]

Spoiler: Confirmed Trades

Spoiler: Draft Pick order

AFL Draft - AFL.com.au

Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information

www.afl.com.au

Spoiler: Key dates

AFL Trade Period Key Dates - AFL.com.au

When does Free Agency begin? How long does the Trade Period go for? Find out on AFL.com.au.

www.afl.com.au

Key Dates:

Friday 07 October at 5.00pm
Close of AFL Restricted Free Agency Offer and Unrestricted Free Agency Period.

Monday 10 October
NAB AFL Draft Nominations open (9am)
AFL Restricted Free Agency Matching Offer 3 Day Period Ends (5pm)

Wednesday 12 October at 7.30pm
AFL Trade Period closes – players and selections


Thursday 03 November at 9.00am
AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) commences

Wednesday 09 November at 5.00pm

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (1) closes

Friday 11 November at 9.00am

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) commences

Tuesday 15 November by 5.00pm

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (2) closes
AFL Trade Period closes – selections only

Monday 21 November by 3.00pm

NAB AFL Draft Nominations close

Monday 28 November at 7.10pm

2022 NAB AFL Draft Round One (Venue TBC)

Father/Son, Academy & NGA and Players Bidding opens.

Tuesday 29 November

AFL Trade Period – selections only (5.45pm to 6.30pm)

2022 NAB AFL National Draft Round two until completion (7pm)

Rookie Upgrade Period opens (10pm)

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (3) commences (10pm)

Rookie Upgrade Period closes (11pm)

AFL Delisted Player Free Agency Period (3) closes (11pm)

Wednesday 30 November

NAB AFL Pre-Season Draft (3pm, online)
NAB AFL Rookie Draft (3.20pm, online)

Thursday 01 December by 4.00pm

Final AFL Club List Lodgement

 

[krakouers]

Woah. A newspaper! Didn't realise they still made those, how quaint.

Hey, what else am I supposed to read with my cup of coffee on a Sunday?

 

[PokerRoo]

I don't get this keep pick 1 at all cost mentality. If you can turn it into a bunch of players/first rounders then I would do it. eg. Hunter clark

11

Hunter Clark

Age

25

Ht

186cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.3

3star

D

16.0

4star

K

9.6

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.9

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.0

1star

/ top 5 pick and a later first rounder. If you go through past drafts, how many times has pick 1 ended up being the best player from that draft?

2013: Bontempelli - pick 4 (Boyd pick 1)
2014: Petracca - pick 2 (McCatiin Pick 1)
2015: Oliver - pick 4, McKay - pick 10 ( Weitering pick 1)
2016: McCluggage - pick 3 and bunch of better players than Mcgrath pick 1
2017: LDU - pick 4 (Rayner pick 1)
2018: Walsh 1, but bunch of great players after that. close call on who will be best

Then go back further and pick 1 is rarely if ever, the best player from the draft class. Seelwood 7, Dangerfield 10, Dusty 3, Cunnington 5.

Chances of getting a star is no better at 1 than it is at any of the top 5 IMO. Plus you get the added "bonus" of the media scrutiny they will get. case in point this year with JHF

 

[rickety]

Someone will come out with a list of the great players drafted @pick15.

Wait for it. Probably googable

He always posts stuff like that

 

[Passmore]

Sunday Times (WA)
View attachment 1530580

View attachment 1530581

So essentially JHF and 1 out. 2,3,8,12 PA F1 in.

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

 

[buttox]

Someone will come out with a list of the great players drafted @pick15.

Wait for it. Probably googable

And ignore the failures yep.
Not many 18 year old are ready to go is the problem. Those players go very early in their draft years. Very slim chance we nail a pick 15 historically.

 

[Only Forwards]

There is a chasm between the first five and the last five of Rd 1.

We spent many years getting mid range first round picks.

We have deliberately bottomed out to be able to access the real cream of the draft.

Now we have a player that is that, and in compensation we’re supposed to take mid range picks?

Is not caving here is incredibly important. Mid range picks even if they stack 4 of them are not the same thing as access to the very high end of the draft.

 

[krakouers]

And ignore the failures yep.
Not many 18 year old are ready to go is the problem. Those players go very early in their draft years. Very slim chance we nail a pick 15 historically.

We have a bit of luck with it, Tarrant was 15, Garner though

Historical Results for AFL Draft Pick 15 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[r_boy]

Okay what do people think of this:

Port get: Rioli, JHF
Port lose: Pick 8, F1, Sinn

North get: pick 2, pick 3, F1 (Port), Sinn
North lose: JHF, pick 1, F3

WCE get: pick 12, pick 8, pick 18
WCE lose: Rioli, pick 2

GWS get pick 1, F3 (NM)
GWS lose pick 3, pick 12, pick 18

My only problem with it is essentially GWS are paying for Rioli and not Port who are still not losing enough. It's the best I could do.

 

[buttox]

We have a bit of luck with it, Tarrant was 15, Garner though

Historical Results for AFL Draft Pick 15 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Let's call taz best case scenario. (I'm sure there has been better players)
How did he go in his first year? How long did it take him to be best 22?
Now compare that to someone like logue and clark who are available this year around that pick.
It is not even close as far as output goes. Both would most likely play there best years of there career with us. We've skipped the vfl years.

 

[Psicosis]

We spent many years getting mid range first round picks.

We have deliberately bottomed out to be able to access the real cream of the draft.

Now we have a player that is that, and in compensation we’re supposed to take mid range picks?

Is not caving here is incredibly important. Mid range picks even if they stack 4 of them are not the same thing as access to the very high end of the draft.

It’s shocking that this even needs to be reiterated.

 

[Roo202]

Sunday Times (WA)
View attachment 1530580

View attachment 1530581

Am I missing something or is that saying we are rightly demanding a "King's Ransom" but then suggesting we could downgrade two pick #1s for 2,3 and a pick likely to be 30+ next year?

 

[roos 10]

Okay what do people think of this:

Port get: Rioli, JHF
Port lose: Pick 8, F1, Sinn

North get: pick 2, pick 3, F1 (Port), Sinn
North lose: JHF, pick 1, pick 12, F3

WCE get: pick 12, pick 8, pick 18
WCE lose: Rioli, pick 2

GWS get pick 1, F3 (NM)
GWS lose pick 3, pick 12, pick 18

My only problem with it is essentially GWS are paying for Rioli and not Port who are still not losing enough. It's the best I could do.

Pick 18 to us bonner to west coast

 

[PokerRoo]

Georgiardis I think is what will unlock the JHF trade. If WC can convince him and Port then that will unlock 2 to come to us. The problem I think is that WC prob want ports f1 due to Rioli needing to be included, which doesn't leave much coming back to us.

Port is possibly going to have to loose 2 players plus all their picks to bring in JHF and Rioli. The question they need to answer is, is he worth it?

 

[GS WARRIORS]

Pick 18 to us bonner to west coast

Or 33 to west coast

 

[LuvtheKangas]

So essentially JHF and 1 out. 2,3,8,12 PA F1 in.

Sent from my SM-A908B using Tapatalk

I'm pretty sure it's saying 8 and 12 to WC.

So they're suggesting JHF and 1 out, for 2, 3 and PA F1 (which they won't have in this scenario).

The people who write this stuff must be brain dead.

 

[The Y Factor]

I don't get this keep pick 1 at all cost mentality. If you can turn it into a bunch of players/first rounders then I would do it. eg. Hunter clark/ top 5 pick and a later first rounder. If you go through past drafts, how many times has pick 1 ended up being the best player from that draft?

2013: Bontempelli - pick 4 (Boyd pick 1)
2014: Petracca - pick 2 (McCatiin Pick 1)
2015: Oliver - pick 4, McKay - pick 10 ( Weitering pick 1)
2016: McCluggage - pick 3 and bunch of better players than Mcgrath pick 1
2017: LDU - pick 4 (Rayner pick 1)
2018: Walsh 1, but bunch of great players after that. close call on who will be best

Then go back further and pick 1 is rarely if ever, the best player from the draft class. Seelwood 7, Dangerfield 10, Dusty 3, Cunnington 5.

Chances of getting a star is no better at 1 than it is at any of the top 5 IMO. Plus you get the added "bonus" of the media scrutiny they will get. case in point this year with JHF

Nobody disputes this.

The keep pick one is about keeping the only pick that ensures we get thge best available KPF in the draft, not necesarrily guarantee the best player in the draft but best for our needs.

 

[JGreezy]

I think that if we get Wardlaw, ports F1 and sweetners for JHF then that is good. We are getting a new cornerstone for the rebuild with a bit extra for the uncertainty.

That's what the mega trade essentially is for us. I am happy with that.

We move from 3 to 1 but still get our top 2 guys, so who cares?

I think WC are pretty happy to get two of the three WA guys in 8-14 range. They just need a bit extra but the Port campaigners won't cough it up.

GWS are willing to add pick 12 to the deal because if WC pull out then they miss Cadman. And WC want pick 12 for a WA guy.

The whole deal is nice, it just needs Port to throw in a bit more.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Interesting random factoid: Aaron Cadman is close family friends with Zak Butters

9

Zak Butters

Age

24

Ht

181cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.3

4star

K

7.7

3star

HB

6.7

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

14.7

4star

K

8.9

4star

HB

5.9

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.1

3star

D

17.0

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

.

 

[hilly]

Okay what do people think of this:

Port get: Rioli, JHF
Port lose: Pick 8, F1, Sinn

North get: pick 2, pick 3, F1 (Port), Sinn
North lose: JHF, pick 1, F3

WCE get: pick 12, pick 8, pick 18
WCE lose: Rioli, pick 2

GWS get pick 1, F3 (NM)
GWS lose pick 3, pick 12, pick 18

My only problem with it is essentially GWS are paying for Rioli and not Port who are still not losing enough. It's the best I could do.

Trading JHF for 2 and Future R1 is acceptable. Trading 1 and future 3rd (say, pick 37) for 3 and Sinn is good - make it happen Vineys.

 

[GS WARRIORS]

I'm pretty sure it's saying 8 and 12 to WC.

So they're suggesting JHF and 1 out, for 2, 3 and PA F1 (which they won't have in this scenario).

The people who write this stuff must be brain dead.

Yep - if 12 goes to WCE, Port need to give us a good young player. If we keep 12, Georgiardis goes to WCE.

Either way Port need to give up a good young player.

 

[FootySmartSimpson]

I agree.

I think that with drafting we can get caught up in size, speed, athleticism and ignore the big question ... "are they good at football?"

Sheezel is all class. He is a natural. Plus he can already run all day.

I feel as though teams like Sydney and Geelong (who would be in the top 5 most successful teams of the last 20 years consistently draft footballers first.

Composure, smarts, skills and toughness will trump speed, tricks and pizzaz nine times out of ten.

 

[Carey4life]

I don't get this keep pick 1 at all cost mentality. If you can turn it into a bunch of players/first rounders then I would do it. eg. Hunter clark/ top 5 pick and a later first rounder. If you go through past drafts, how many times has pick 1 ended up being the best player from that draft?

2013: Bontempelli - pick 4 (Boyd pick 1)
2014: Petracca - pick 2 (McCatiin Pick 1)
2015: Oliver - pick 4, McKay - pick 10 ( Weitering pick 1)
2016: McCluggage - pick 3 and bunch of better players than Mcgrath pick 1
2017: LDU - pick 4 (Rayner pick 1)
2018: Walsh 1, but bunch of great players after that. close call on who will be best

Then go back further and pick 1 is rarely if ever, the best player from the draft class. Seelwood 7, Dangerfield 10, Dusty 3, Cunnington 5.

Chances of getting a star is no better at 1 than it is at any of the top 5 IMO. Plus you get the added "bonus" of the media scrutiny they will get. case in point this year with JHF

I don't want to be a jerk. But you can't say 'IMO' when the subject matter is quantifiable. Pick 1 might not always be the best player when you compare it to the next 9-24 picks, but it quantifiably gives you the best chance at a high quality player. This is statistics 101. Definitely not overrated.

The only acceptable reason to trade the pick is that you think the top X players are even, or you want to avoid the first pick for some reason (e.g. you know JHF is a pea heart who doesn't want to build anything | the second best player is from your state so you preference stepping down).

 

[buttox]

I feel as though teams like Sydney and Geelong (who would be in the top 5 most successful teams of the last 20 years consistently draft footballers first.

Composure, smarts, skills and toughness will trump speed, tricks and pizzaz nine times out of ten.

Without looking I bet they have traded a fair few seconds for experience also.

 

[GS WARRIORS]

I think that if we get Wardlaw, ports F1 and sweetners for JHF then that is good. We are getting a new cornerstone for the rebuild with a bit extra for the uncertainty.

That's what the mega trade essentially is for us. I am happy with that.

We move from 3 to 1 but still get our top 2 guys, so who cares?

I think WC are pretty happy to get two of the three WA guys in 8-14 range. They just need a bit extra but the Port campaigners won't cough it up.

GWS are willing to add pick 12 to the deal because if WC pull out then they miss Cadman. And WC want pick 12 for a WA guy.

The whole deal is nice, it just needs Port to throw in a bit more.

I care if we are paying some of the price for Port to WCE to get 2 and not getting the benefit of trading down.

We are not getting pick 12 (hopefully GWS are giving more than this) and giving it away for free unless Port are paying us back for it.

 

[Masked Avenger]

Georgiardis I think is what will unlock the JHF trade. If WC can convince him and Port then that will unlock 2 to come to us. The problem I think is that WC prob want ports f1 due to Rioli needing to be included, which doesn't leave much coming back to us.

Port is possibly going to have to loose 2 players plus all their picks to bring in JHF and Rioli. The question they need to answer is, is he worth it?

The problem with all these multi club proposals is that Port have to give up 2 quality players for it to work - and they're struggling to cough up one as it is. Can't see that happening.

I'd be disappointed if we haven't bypassed Port and gone straight to the managers of Butters/Bergman/Sinn and talked serious money and opportunities.