2022 Victorian State Election-November 26

[Brad Goodman]

Lordy Lordy Catherine..
Literally said an army could blow someone up (Facepalm)

Ha how’s the backtrack, not so much bravado now

 

[Nikita Blue]

Not even cookers are dumb enough to fall for that.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Lordy Lordy Catherine..
Literally said an army could blow someone up (Facepalm)

God, can you imagine what would've happened if she had've been arrested on the spot?

That would've been a catalyst for ****ing mayhem over the next week.

 

[mighty tiges]

Lordy Lordy Catherine..
Literally said an army could blow someone up (Facepalm)

 

[Kwality]

Realistically he gets a report of "there's this place in Dandenong that's breeched food safety laws"

So he signs .... if there is a system, its bloody atrocious.

 

[Hornberger]

Currently I'm going with, subject to change:

ALP: 54 (-2)
L/NP: 24 (-3)
GRN: 5 (+2)
IND: 5 (+3)

ALP Gain: Caulfield, Bayswater, Glen Waverley
L/NP Gain: Nepean, Pakenham
GRN Gain: Richmond, Northcote
OTH Gain: Benambra, Kew, Hawthorn

I take it you are treating Morwell and Ripon has being notional retains for the ALP, and Bass for the Liberals?

 

[Punt rd end]

Currently I'm going with, subject to change:

ALP: 54 (-2)
L/NP: 24 (-3)
GRN: 5 (+2)
IND: 5 (+3)

ALP Gain: Caulfield, Bayswater, Glen Waverley
L/NP Gain: Nepean, Pakenham
GRN Gain: Richmond, Northcote
OTH Gain: Benambra, Kew, Hawthorn

Off of ALP-L/NP-GRN-OTH votes of: 36-33-14-17 (for 2PP around 55-45.) We really need fresh opinion polling though.

But very wide error bars on the seat count. There's probably a net change of 6 seats either way on just a 2% shift from that assumed 2PP.

• Locally I feel Ringwood will be a comfortable ALP hold, Bayswater I really don't know, but favour Jackson Taylor given the profile he's built. On a good night, Croydon and Rowville (to the Indy) will fall - Rowville really should have been somewhere the Libs could safely put up a fresh face with leadership potential. Really good night would flip Warrandyte. Evelyn no chance.
• GRN campaign seemed laser-focussed on bulking-up the margins they had, gaining Richmond and maybe Northcote on a good night. Liberal preferencing decision + general dissatisfaction really could have opened up the map, but I don't think they've done enough on the ground elsewhere to capitalise.
• Some areas I have no idea what's going on. Not hearing much excitement about Brighton/Sandringham, but I'm wondering how the Liberals hold given the trend this side of town and wafer-thin margins already. Other marginal seats (particularly in the regions,) I'm not seeing anything to confirm a trend either way.

Box Hill?

 

[Kyptastic]

How does this rif raf gets close to a parliament of Australia?

From Wikipedia - In July 2019, it was reported that Cumming had hired her children, other relatives, and a friend to work as her electorate office staff. Despite doing this, she stated that the practice of hiring close associates as staff should be disallowed.

Another "freedom fighter" who is using her taxpayer salary to grift.

That thread gives a pretty good summary

 

[Kwality]

So he shouldnt have signed? What evidence do you have it was the wrong decision?

Saying he should or shouldnt is like us saying someone the jury or judge was wrong based on both of us reading a news article. He had all the evidence in front of him - we dont.

Its my opinion & I have not represented it as anything more - your faux questioning suggests its you denying the systemic failure that resulted in legal action.

 

[tangolikelama]

Lmao Adem and Heston going at it

 

[Kwality]

Lmao Adem and Heston going at it

Look over here, ignore Druery manipulation of the vote next weekend.

Who tried to clear the Glenn Druery 'smear'?

'Preference whisperer' Glenn Druery is, shall we say, a colourful character. So it's unsurprising someone in the Victorian Parliament wants to 'correct' his Wikipedia page.

www.crikey.com.au

 

[Jascave]

It's fair to say Matthew Guy has now lost complete control of the Liberal Party in Victoria.

Just when we look like we were going to be for a tense election night next Saturday, the Victorian Liberals totally blew it with their criticism of the Victorian Electoral Commission this week. Peter Dutton and other prominent Liberals like Peter Costello, John Howard, Malcolm Turnbull will be furious at the performance of their Victorian Liberal colleagues, because not only are they going to waste (at this point in time) another 4 years in opposition in Victoria, but it has also cost them whatever chance they ever have of regaining government in the 2025 federal election.

 

[Twoslabs]

I'll admit my "reborn" seat of Pakenham could be interesting.

On last election it was ALP 52.2 v LNP 47 by booths

Difference is this time we have strong independent who could conceivably finish second and he if does he wins will be one to watch.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

So he signs .... if there is a system, its bloody atrocious.

Nor really.
He would get reports about similar incidents near daily.
He really couldn't care less who it is.
There's no conspiracy here.

 

[mighty tiges]

A couple of twitter threads about the cooker's history.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

I'll admit my "reborn" seat of Pakenham could be interesting.

On last election it was ALP 52.2 v LNP 47 by booths

Difference is this time we have strong independent who could conceivably finish second and he if does he wins will be one to watch.

Pakenham is a strange one. A strip of growing suburbia in the middle of far west Gippsland

 

[Hank Scorpion]

I take it you are treating Morwell and Ripon has being notional retains for the ALP, and Bass for the Liberals?

I think so. Bass will likely get swept up with the rest of the outer south-east. Ripon/Morwell, I've not seen anything to suggest they'll swing any more or less than the rest of the state, but can't be surprised either way if there are local issues at work.

Box Hill?

Pentecostalism aside, I think the Liberal candidate is quite articulate and presentable. But Andrews' favourability will be fairly high across the district, and all of Whitehorse swung hard to Labor federally, so I think it's an area that is trending against them.

 

[Rustin Cohle]

I take it you are treating Morwell and Ripon has being notional retains for the ALP, and Bass for the Liberals?

Wouldn’t bet on Morwell going to ALP.

 

[Hank Scorpion]

Kevin Bonham went ahead and did maths to estimate ALP-GRN margins (with the effect of Liberal preference recommendations factored) in the next ring of seats that seem to have chatter.

Pascoe Vale: 56-44 to ALP

Footscray: 58-42 to ALP

Modelling The Seat Of Pascoe Vale

Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com

Following the methodology, I'd add Preston as 63-37 to ALP once Liberal preferences swap.


None of those are especially likely to flip unless Labor collapse on Saturday. I chucked a buck on Pascoe Vale back when it was 21-1, but it's not worth much more than that.

 

[Schneebly11]

Lmao Adem and Heston going at it

Heston Russell is a total POS. No surprise his ex military candidates use veiled threats of violence against their opponents. He himself did it to a journalist exposing SF war crimes:



But he’ll get his. Mistakenly he’s pulling a Ben Roberts Smith and suing the ABC for defamation, the ABC just lodged documents in court stating he took pot shots at unarmed civilians in Afghanistan.

Hahah take that you scumbag.

 

[CD Xbow]

How does this rif raf gets close to a parliament of Australia?

From Wikipedia - In July 2019, it was reported that Cumming had hired her children, other relatives, and a friend to work as her electorate office staff. Despite doing this, she stated that the practice of hiring close associates as staff should be disallowed.

Another "freedom fighter" who is using her taxpayer salary to grift.

They are always such bloody grifters.

 

[Kyptastic]

Another charming individual

‘Bloody Aboriginal’: Liberal candidate rails against Indigenous people, abortion and climate change

The Liberal Party’s candidate for the outer suburban seat of Narre Warren North says Australia should not recognise First Nations people because “we won this land fair and square”, that waste from nuclear energy should be dumped in “Alice Springs in the middle of nowhere”, and that he would vote...

www.theage.com.au

 

[cartwright]

Another charming individual

‘Bloody Aboriginal’: Liberal candidate rails against Indigenous people, abortion and climate change

The Liberal Party’s candidate for the outer suburban seat of Narre Warren North says Australia should not recognise First Nations people because “we won this land fair and square”, that waste from nuclear energy should be dumped in “Alice Springs in the middle of nowhere”, and that he would vote...

www.theage.com.au

Again, voting for liberals is a vote for religious wack jobs

Dragan twice signed a “Statement on Social Justice” petition, written by a group of Christian leaders in America’s south. The statement supports ‘complementarianism’, a Christian theological belief that men and women have distinct roles that should be obeyed.
It says while women may assist in the decision-making process, “the ultimate authority for the decision is the purview of the male in marriage, courtship, and in the polity of churches subscribing to this view”.

 

[DickieKnee]

How does this rif raf gets close to a parliament of Australia?

From Wikipedia - In July 2019, it was reported that Cumming had hired her children, other relatives, and a friend to work as her electorate office staff. Despite doing this, she stated that the practice of hiring close associates as staff should be disallowed.

Another "freedom fighter" who is using her taxpayer salary to grift.

They'll all grifters.

 

[Ballarat Bob]

How do they let idiots in like Dragan ? have the religious freaks really infiltrated the Liberals that much that they think putting up a clown like this is going to be a vote winner ?