List Mgmt. 2023 List Management

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Tom turns 24 in July, I expect to see a fair bit of improvement this year. He has bulked up nicely and will now not be so easily bumped out of position. His best may still be a couple of years away, so lets be patient with him. I believe he will become an elite ruck/forward for us, he is a keeper.
Can we be patient if he's demanding 800k+?

Especially if he's only performing at 4-500k levels?

We're at the point where every salary cap dollar needs to be allocated carefully. Not like the start of the rebuild where we could afford to overpay. Other clubs are at that point of the cycle and can afford overpaying.

If it comes to money, let him go and get the best deal possible.

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I think atm it all depends on how much TDK develops this season with what we put forward to him, another solid year of improvement would probably have the club offer him a fair and reasonable 2 year contract in the 500K vicinity…
It locks him in for probably the 2 most important years as far as his age/development goes, in which his future price and length of contract will be determined from a clearer platform of what he can actually produce altogether…
 
Herald-Sun apparently.


It makes sense, because Adelaide were intending to draft him before we gazzumped them with a pick or two before them in the draft.

Could live with a straight swap for Soligo if Durds want to the Crom (decent young mid is that lad) :)
Want Durds? Give up Rachelle.

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I can. He’s arguably their most important player.

I’d be over the moon if they didn’t match, but I can’t see it happening.

I think clubs have evolved past matching offers to keep players that have indicated that they wish to exercise their rights under Free Agency.

It's bad business keeping a player who doesn't want to be there and finally has an opportunity to leave (after having served 8 years) particularly when you are getting 'overs' picks wise in return.

... but yes, I'd also be over the moon if they didn't match.
 
If he is willing to accept what we deem is massive overs, being offered by other clubs, then it comes down to adequate compensation

If he wants to stay, based on loyalty and a fair and reasonable contract for what we deem his progression and or ceiling, then I doubt we let him go

All of the speculation really just comes down to this. Does he want the $$ or loyalty and success?

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How would Geelong actually hypothetically afford TDK, draft picks wise? Unless trading someone out, they'd need to give up their 2023 and 2024 1st rounders (a single pick in the 15-19 range won't do it).

However they can't actually trade out those two 1st rounders, because between 2021-22 they have only drafted one player in the first round - Jhye Clark. I believe the required two first rounders drafted in a four year period rule still stands, so how would a TDK trade work for Geelong?
 
How would Geelong actually hypothetically afford TDK, draft picks wise? Unless trading someone out, they'd need to give up their 2023 and 2024 1st rounders (a single pick in the 15-19 range won't do it).

However they can't actually trade out those two 1st rounders, because between 2021-22 they have only drafted one player in the first round - Jhye Clark. I believe the required two first rounders drafted in a four year period rule still stands, so how would a TDK trade work for Geelong?

I don't think even the staunchest of Carlton supporters could argue that we'd expect two first rounders for an out of contract TDK. Two first round picks is usually superstar/young star territory.
 
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Maybe Geelong aren't interested. Maybe they don't rate him like many here do, mostly on potential.
Huge year for Tom for sure. Either he has a meh season dogged by injury and he just battles his way through or just maybe he clicks. Tells Pitt " I am da man" steps up and becomes who we all hope he does. I am a believer.
 
TDK won't go to North ... he'll end up at Geelong I think.

Ben is a Free Agent, so we may walk out of the deal with a profit of players/picks from Geelong (which will be a challenge because I think they are locked out of this draft).
It gets confusing, but I think Geelong can trade either this or next year's 1st round pick, but not both. They took Holmes in the first round of the 2020 draft and Clark in the 2022 draft - so should be able to trade their 2023 1st rounder and still giving them two 1st round picks over four years.

2020 - Holmes
2021 - nil
2022 - Clark
2023 - ??

Where it gets tricky is that similar to us, they don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick this year - but I assume they can still trade out their 1st. It could end up somewhere around pick #18-22 after academy picks etc - which is probably around his current value.

If TDK does head off to Geelong, and brother Ben lands as a FA, we could end up with McKay and 2 first round picks this year, as well as keeping our first rounder in 2024 to use as currency for the Campo twins. As much as I'd prefer to keep TDK, that'd be a fair haul.
 
I think clubs have evolved past matching offers to keep players that have indicated that they wish to exercise their rights under Free Agency.

It's bad business keeping a player who doesn't want to be there and finally has an opportunity to leave (after having served 8 years) particularly when you are getting 'overs' picks wise in return.

... but yes, I'd also be over the moon if they didn't match.
We're only really a year out from Papley's inability to get to us and then deciding to re-sign with Sydney, though. Think this is very much an area without convention; you have to consider each player's contract and circumstances individually.
 

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How would Geelong actually hypothetically afford TDK, draft picks wise? Unless trading someone out, they'd need to give up their 2023 and 2024 1st rounders (a single pick in the 15-19 range won't do it).

However they can't actually trade out those two 1st rounders, because between 2021-22 they have only drafted one player in the first round - Jhye Clark. I believe the required two first rounders drafted in a four year period rule still stands, so how would a TDK trade work for Geelong?
The AFL would let them do it, because the rules in the AFL are virtually nonexistent if you let them know what you're doing.
 
It gets confusing, but I think Geelong can trade either this or next year's 1st round pick, but not both. They took Holmes in the first round of the 2020 draft and Clark in the 2022 draft - so should be able to trade their 2023 1st rounder and still giving them two 1st round picks over the past four years.

2020 - Holmes
2021 - nil
2022 - Clark
2023 - ??

Where it gets tricky is that similar to us, they don't have a 2nd or 3rd round pick this year - but I assume they can still trade out their 1st. It could end up somewhere around pick #18-22 after academy picks etc - which is probably around his current value.

If TDK does head off to Geelong, and brother Ben lands as a FA, we could end up with McKay and 2 first round picks this year, as well as keeping our first rounder in 2024 to use as currency for the Campo twins. As much as I'd prefer to keep TDK, that'd be a fair haul.
Nice assessment, and you're correct about Geelong's 1RPs. Personally I reckon if TDK was to leave I'd like their 1st (pick 20ish) and their future 2nd (around pick 30). Ben McKay as a FA is a bonus.

There are also a number of decent OOC rucks this year which we could use as cover for Pitto/Mirk - Fort, Esava, Preuss, Matt Flynn, Max Lynch, Reeves, Amartey, Jamieson. I reckon Matt Flynn and Ned Reeves are great options and would be pretty gettable. A 3rd or 4th rounder would get that done.

On the other hand, we could also trade with Geelong, TDK --> Esava + 1st rounder. Probably overs for that one, but thoughts?
 
Nice assessment, and you're correct about Geelong's 1RPs. Personally I reckon if TDK was to leave I'd like their 1st (pick 20ish) and their future 2nd (around pick 30). Ben McKay as a FA is a bonus.

There are also a number of decent OOC rucks this year which we could use as cover for Pitto/Mirk - Fort, Esava, Preuss, Matt Flynn, Max Lynch, Reeves, Amartey, Jamieson. I reckon Matt Flynn and Ned Reeves are great options and would be pretty gettable. A 3rd or 4th rounder would get that done.

On the other hand, we could also trade with Geelong, TDK --> Esava + 1st rounder. Probably overs for that one, but thoughts?

Do not rate Esava at all. Would much rather we steer clear, there are many others in that list I'd prefer.

Reeves won't leave Hawthorn.
 
Perfect off season to me would be picking up Ollie Florent and Liam Ryan as two 2024 pre agents. Future first and second for Ryan and Florent respectively given we likely won't need premium currency with the Campo twins coming through.

I think TDK goes to Geelong end of year from rumours I've heard in which case I'd look at a simple cheap option such as Soldo or Flynn at GWS. Don't think our team needs a premier ruck to still play to our strengths, we mainly just need a bullocking big man who can play majority of the game and won't be beaten too badly. Our forward line doesn't function well with the 3 talls up forward and a 2nd ruck resting there.

Dow likely gone as well.


Ryan is a better forward option than any we currently have on our list and provides a genuine 3rd marking option while also having great foot skills and speed. Only 26 still and wouldn't cost a fortune salary wise. Won't be in WCE next premiership team and they'd know when rebuilding small forwards aren't as valuable as a young KPP they could get with an early pick.

Florent adds some class from the wing and can rotate to half back and half fwd and also has some real leg speed. Really smart decision maker too.

2024 team:

Mcgovern Weitering Docherty
Williams Young Saad
Florent Cripps Acres
Ryan Curnow Fisher
Motlop Mckay Durdin

Pittonet Hewett Cerra

Walsh Martin Kennedy JSOS

IMO that team would seriously contend as the best list in the league and have plenty of depth across every line with some real talented youth running around in the VFL.

Main thing to me this year is finding that last piece we need in the fwd line and then start replenishing our KPP and Inside mid stocks over the next few drafts.
 
Perfect off season to me would be picking up Ollie Florent and Liam Ryan as two 2024 pre agents. Future first and second for Ryan and Florent respectively given we likely won't need premium currency with the Campo twins coming through.

I think TDK goes to Geelong end of year from rumours I've heard in which case I'd look at a simple cheap option such as Soldo or Flynn at GWS. Don't think our team needs a premier ruck to still play to our strengths, we mainly just need a bullocking big man who can play majority of the game and won't be beaten too badly. Our forward line doesn't function well with the 3 talls up forward and a 2nd ruck resting there.

Dow likely gone as well.


Ryan is a better forward option than any we currently have on our list and provides a genuine 3rd marking option while also having great foot skills and speed. Only 26 still and wouldn't cost a fortune salary wise. Won't be in WCE next premiership team and they'd know when rebuilding small forwards aren't as valuable as a young KPP they could get with an early pick.

Florent adds some class from the wing and can rotate to half back and half fwd and also has some real leg speed. Really smart decision maker too.

2024 team:

Mcgovern Weitering Docherty
Williams Young Saad
Florent Cripps Acres
Ryan Curnow Fisher
Motlop Mckay Durdin

Pittonet Hewett Cerra

Walsh Martin Kennedy JSOS

IMO that team would seriously contend as the best list in the league and have plenty of depth across every line with some real talented youth running around in the VFL.

Main thing to me this year is finding that last piece we need in the fwd line and then start replenishing our KPP and Inside mid stocks over the next few drafts.
That would be a no for mine. Severely overrates Ryan with a future 1st who would be 27 when he came over. Happy to back motlop and durdin is as both should be rippers. Florent is a good player well worth a future 2nd but not really required with Acres, Holland's, Binns already added to what we have and the campo twins likely to play the same role.

Neither Ryan or Florent have given any indication of leaving their current teams.

I'm also pretty confident that TDK will stay. Both parties are just seeing how he goes this year to determine a likely salary.

Depending on TDK we might be after a medium free agent to use up Dows salary and the potential savings from Mitch McGovern (either a reduced salary or off the list dependent on output this year) .

Could all change depending on how we go though. If we finish top 4 and forwards and wingers improve expect no change on those areas. The last trade/draft period showed that if the club believes that there us an area if weakness they will do whatever required to fix it.
 
That would be a no for mine. Severely overrates Ryan with a future 1st who would be 27 when he came over. Happy to back motlop and durdin is as both should be rippers. Florent is a good player well worth a future 2nd but not really required with Acres, Holland's, Binns already added to what we have and the campo twins likely to play the same role.

Neither Ryan or Florent have given any indication of leaving their current teams.

I'm also pretty confident that TDK will stay. Both parties are just seeing how he goes this year to determine a likely salary.

Depending on TDK we might be after a medium free agent to use up Dows salary and the potential savings from Mitch McGovern (either a reduced salary or off the list dependent on output this year) .

Could all change depending on how we go though. If we finish top 4 and forwards and wingers improve expect no change on those areas. The last trade/draft period showed that if the club believes that there us an area if weakness they will do whatever required to fix it.
I would think a pick we'd be expecting to be around the 14-18 mark would be bang on Ryan's value.
 
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