Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[TylerDurden]

GinnWiz

I cant wait.

 

[Bugs1977]

Ease up fella, there's no need to get worked up.

All I'm saying is that it's a bigger risk to take when using up a top 5 pick on a small forward. These types could be picked up in the late teens or further down.in the draft.

It's merely an opinion and I'm entitled to express mine without copping abuse.

Not too sure when I abused you. All I did was call you out for saying the only player you knew about was Reid and then in the very next sentence say that you think it's a risk to take someone you know nothing about all because of there height. Duursma for what it's worth is only 80kgs and for all we know he might not able to throw on much more weight and in a postion that he'll need a fair bit more he could also end up being a bust. Being only 170cm and to be ranked in the top 8 is all you need to know about Watson because he's gonna be that good because he's a wait for it… a small forward.

Finally Hawthorn have always done things their own way so I'll leave it that.

 

[Bugs1977]

GinnWiz

I cant wait.

 

[Alite]

The Demons time is now. Paying overs for the player they really want / need makes sense for them.

If the Demons really want a player that will be available at pick 4(5): say Nick Watson/ Duursma / McKercher…

… would they trade their pick 6(7) and pick 11(13) for our pick 4(5)? Likely not but it is worth asking the question. Maybe add in the woods f2.

The Hawks could then offer picks 6, 11 and a F1 for Harley to WC (if they realy want Curtain then they would not do it but getting three 1st rounders for the price of Harley… maybe they would) or…

Use pick 6(7) on Conor O’Sullivan who, with McCabe, completes our future backline. And on-trade pick 11(13) to a contending club for their F1 plus equalisers.

That F1 could be used with our F1 for a big fish trade next year (with a f2 coming back) or used to get back into this draft if a highly rated player is available after the McCabe bid.

It would be a bold move by the Demons, and a bold move by MM but completing our spine and ending up with two F1s is pretty tempting.

Stranger things have happened.

 

[Alite]

The Demons time is now. Paying overs for the player they really want / need makes sense.

If the Demons really want a player that will be available at pick 4(5): say Nick Watson/ Duursma / McKercher…

… would they trade their pick 6(7) and pick 11(13) for our pick 4(5)? Likely not but it is worth asking the question. Maybe add in the woods f2.

The Hawks could then offer picks 6, 11 and a F1 for Harley to WC, or…

Use pick 6(7) on Conor O’Sullivan who, with McCabe, completes our future backline. And on-trade pick 11(13) to a contending club for their F1 plus equalisers.

That F1 could be used with our F1 for a big fish trade next year (with a f2 coming back) or used to get back into this draft if a highly rated player is available after the McCabe bid.

It would be a bold move by MM but completing our spine is and ending up with 2 f1 is prettying tempting.

Just to be clear, I also very much like the idea of just using our pick 4(5) on Duursma, McKercher, Curtain, or Watson (though the Ginni trade makes Watson less likely… damned shame as I love the way he plays)

The concept of the above may also spook the WB into trading up from their pick 5(6) to ensure they get Watson thereby giving the Hawks whatever the Dogs will give (a F2) to make that jump.

 

[DrAbs]

The Demons time is now. Paying overs for the player they really want / need makes sense.

If the Demons really want a player that will be available at pick 4(5): say Nick Watson/ Duursma / McKercher…

… would they trade their pick 6(7) and pick 11(13) for our pick 4(5)? Likely not but it is worth asking the question. Maybe add in the woods f2.

The Hawks could then offer picks 6, 11 and a F1 for Harley to WC,

Interesting.

If we do that trade for Pick 1, then WCE will have to be confident that the Dees don't take Curtin and take Watson instead (at Pick 5). Because then the Dogs won't take him at Pick 6 (they'd probably take Sanders), and WCE can still grab Curtin at 7. But it is a risk on their part. But that would be a good trade for us to try.

PS: I've just infiltrated a Demons Pick 6 thread and they all seem to want Curtin at their pick, so I'm not sure WCE would do that trade cause Demons could just pick Curtin at 4.

Use pick 6(7) on Conor O’Sullivan who, with McCabe, completes our future backline. And on-trade pick 11(13) to a contending club for their F1 plus equalisers.

I'm not taking O'Sullivan with Pick 7. Maybe with 13/14 if available, but not 7.

You know what, now that I think of it.. If we end up with Pick 7 & 14 and Eagles don't trade Pick 1, the order could go like this:

1 - Reid (WCE)
2 - Walter (GCS)
3 - McKercher (NM)
4 - Duursma (NM)
5 - Curtin (MEL)
6 - Watson (WB)
7 - Sanders (HAW)
8 - Caddy (GWS)
9 - Read (GCS)
10 - Windsor (GEE)
11 - Croft (WB)
12 - Leake (ESS)
13 - Wilson (ADE)
14 - O'Sullivan (HAW)

Not sure if O'Sullivan will be there at 14 but if not we could get Wilson or Leake, or if we really want a key back, we could get Murphy at 14.

I know we're midfield heavy, but Sanders is a gun (almost a JHF clone, but at Pick 7..)

 

[Alite]

Interesting.

If we do that trade for Pick 1, then WCE will have to be confident that the Dees don't take Curtin and take Watson instead (at Pick 5). Because then the Dogs won't take him at Pick 6 (they'd probably take Sanders), and WCE can still grab Curtin at 7. But it is a risk on their part. But that would be a good trade for us to try.

PS: I've just infiltrated a Demons Pick 6 thread and they all seem to want Curtin at their pick, so I'm not sure WCE would do that trade cause Demons could just pick Curtin at 4.



I'm not taking O'Sullivan with Pick 7. Maybe with 13/14 if available, but not 7.

You know what, now that I think of it.. If we end up with Pick 7 & 14 and Eagles don't trade Pick 1, the order could go like this:

1 - Reid (WCE)
2 - Walter (GCS)
3 - McKercher (NM)
4 - Duursma (NM)
5 - Curtin (MEL)
6 - Watson (WB)
7 - Sanders (HAW)
8 - Caddy (GWS)
9 - Read (GCS)
10 - Windsor (GEE)
11 - Croft (WB)
12 - Leake (ESS)
13 - Wilson (ADE)
14 - O'Sullivan (HAW)

Not sure if O'Sullivan will be there at 14 but if not we could get Wilson or Leake, or if we really want a key back, we could get Murphy at 14.

I know we're midfield heavy, but Sanders is a gun (almost a JHF clone, but at Pick 7..)

I see your angle but one should not build a house in Queensland‘s north with a sunny day in mind, instead you build it for a cyclone.

For the Hawks the cyclone is a bid on McCabe at Essendon‘s pick 9(11)... Dodo loves those types of bids.
In your scenario we would lose our pick 14 for a late pick.

Also note that the WC trade only happens if WC are willing to not get Curtain.

 

[DrAbs]

I see your angle but one should not build a house in Queensland‘s north with a sunny day in mind, instead you build it for a cyclone.

For the Hawks the cyclone is a bid on McCabe at Essendon‘s pick 9(11)... Dod loves those types of bids.
In your scenario we would lose our pick 14.

Also note that the WC trade only happens if WC are willing to not get Curtain.

Cool. I'd let McCabe walk to Essendon.

O'Sullivan >> McCabe

Also if this is the case, Essendon just take O'Sullivan at 12 lol.

Which means we take either Leake or Wilson or Murphy at 14.

 

[Alite]

Cool. I'd let McCabe walk to Essendon.

O'Sullivan >> McCabe

Also if this is the case, Essendon just take O'Sullivan at 12 lol.

Which means we take either Leake or Wilson or Murphy at 14.

Sorry mate you lost me at I’d let McCabe walk… everything after that was nonsense.

For mine we must get 2 top talents this year and McCabe IS one of them.

Personally I am not enamoured with either Leake nor Murphy but I do like Wilson, though he does not fill a need.

My mum used to say, “Never compromise your core value“. And then she ran away with one of the students she tutored in physics. I guess her core value was young hot men. Haha… only joking... my mum is none of your business… unless you are good at physics.

 

[daniel23]

We get a top 15 talent in McCabe by bundling up a bunch of junk picks and some people want to let him walk elsewhere.

 

[Alite]

We get a top 15 talent in McCabe by bundling up a bunch of junk picks and some people want to let him walk elsewhere.

Don’t make this a thing…USER=218696]DrAbs[/USER] was just following a train of thought And did not see the ramifications.

 

[FB19]

Would you be able to shed light on the avenues for us picking these 2 players in the 30-40 draft range.

Our picks in 40's will get eaten on when McCabe gets bid on, say at pick 19( going by Cal's draft), that means we need around 780 points to match. We would likely have around 1350 points at that stage( after Suns bids move our picks higher). Our 3 40's pick will get used up for McCabe bid and we would likely to be left with 3 late 50's pick by then.

We only have F2 pies and not sure if any of the below clubs(excluding Suns) with the picks are going to trade do the trade. If we had a F3, we would have had better chance.

Is there a chance of asking for a friendly club to help us. Say Sydney take our pick 44 for their F3 before McCabe bid and then trade their 45 for F2(pies). The 45 should be around pick 42 then.

30	Brisbane (tied to Geelong)
31	Essendon
32	Gold Coast (tied to Adelaide)
33	Collingwood (received from Hawthorn in Jack Ginnivan trade, tied to Western Bulldogs)
34	Fremantle (received from Collingwood in Lachie Schultz trade; Collingwood received from Sydney in Taylor Adams trade)
35	Essendon (received from St Kilda in four-club trade)
36	Gold Coast (received from Melbourne in pick swap)
37	West Coast (tied to Port Adelaide)
38	Gold Coast (tied to Greater Western Sydney)
39	Brisbane (received from Hawthorn in Jack-Gunston-Brandon Ryan trade, Haw received from Coll in Jack Ginnivan trade, tied to Carlton)
40	St Kilda (received from Western Bulldogs in four-club trade, tied to Brisbane)
41	Richmond (received from Port Adelaide in Ivan Soldo trade, tied to Collingwood)
42	Melbourne (James Jordon compensation pick)
43	Greater Western Sydney (Matt Flynn compensation pick)

ROUND THREE​
44	Hawthorn (received from West Coast in Tyler Brockman trade)

A left field way would be the trading back with dees angle. 4 for 6,11. Would only work as a live trade if dees want the player. Then Trade 11 to freo for pies first (18) and saints 2nd (32). They don’t pick until 34 so this trade gets them back into this years draft. They would still have their first and ports next year so I think willing to do it especially with Longmuir under pressure in the last year of his contract. Might need something going back like 47 which is ok as we would still have the points for McCabe with 44/49/62 once they come in from earlier matching and with the discount and would get a late pick back for dear. Then we either have a strong 2024 hand with 2 firsts and 2 seconds or the ability to trade back in for those speculative players KeeperLeaguer mentioned. We don’t have much draft capital outside our firsts need to maximise it.
Edit: would also allow us to deathride the pies with their first and second.

 

[The Kipster]

How about a deal where it is agreed that the Chooks take Reid and we take Curtin and upon the end of year 1 we trade.

 

[Rushed_Behind]

I still don’t understand how shinbeggars don’t take curtain and duursma/Watson. Which leaves Mckercher to us. I only saw him play once but he was special that day against vic country.

 

[KeeperLeaguer]

Would you be able to shed light on the avenues for us picking these 2 players in the 30-40 draft range.

Our picks in 40's will get eaten on when McCabe gets bid on, say at pick 19( going by Cal's draft), that means we need around 780 points to match. We would likely have around 1350 points at that stage( after Suns bids move our picks higher). Our 3 40's pick will get used up for McCabe bid and we would likely to be left with 3 late 50's pick by then.

I probably didn't word that too well. Not stating there's two players we will be drafting - there's two players we have an eye on and may draft one of them if the situation presents. And by that I mean yes we will be looking to bundle-trade some picks.
At this stage Dear is still the preference though.

 

[Dewnior]

there's two players we have an eye on and may draft one of them if the situation presents.

I assume one of them is Tew but please keep this confidential and don't post names

 

[peetoo]

We get a top 15 talent in McCabe by bundling up a bunch of junk picks and some people want to let him walk elsewhere.

Surely having McCabe makes it less likely we downgrade pick 4

Worst part of pick 4 is it’s our earliest for 20 years and hopefully another 20. A lot of focus on it

 

[Spudwick]

Come at me bro!
View attachment 1837067

 

[Hawks2011]

I assume one of them is Tew but please keep this confidential and don't post names

He doesn't have any genuine names.

 

[ShoveYourCOLA]

I assume one of them is Tew but please keep this confidential and don't post names

He’s already stated we have zero interest in TJ

 

[FB19]

Surely Toby McLean

16

Toby Mclean

Age

28

Ht

181cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.7

5star

K

9.0

3star

HB

10.7

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.4

4star

D

15.5

4star

K

6.5

3star

HB

9.0

4star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.5

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

16.8

4star

K

8.2

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.8

3star

is where we should focus our DFA pick. Good player can fill that forward pressure role would be keen for the opportunity.

 

[threesixpio]

GinnWiz

I cant wait.

This sounds a bit wrong

 

[Charchi]

IMO keep pick 4 unless we manage to somehow get pick 1. Dropping down to pick 6 and 11 is a poor strategy since we have had such a low number of top 10 picks in past 10 years. Given there is so much debate about who would be available and who we’d take, the player at pick 4 will be very good to excellent, why pass up that opportunity?

 

[Roddy]

Dear is more likely to fall to the Rookie Draft. His last month of Coates footy piqued the interest of several clubs, though.

He's like a lump of clay - very raw but he has AFL potential.

His old man was like a lump of clay til the day he retired....

 

[DrAbs]

Sorry mate you lost me at I’d let McCabe walk… everything after that was nonsense.

For mine we must get 2 top talents this year and McCabe IS one of them.

Personally I am not enamoured with either Leake nor Murphy but I do like Wilson, though he does not fill a need.

My mum used to say, “Never compromise your core value“. And then she ran away with one of the students she tutored in physics. I guess her core value was young hot men. Haha… only joking... my mum is none of your business… unless you are good at physics.

He's a late first rounder at best. He's not better than O'Sullivan, is he?

McCabe is overrated if you have him top 10. That's what's nonsense. Maybe the Bombers would be mad enough to do something like that, who knows. If he goes top 10, well, what are the chances we even get him?

That's the risk with taking Pick 11 (14). Unlikely to get the very best players this year (except for maybe Wilson, but we don't need him as you said)