Ultimate Glory 2023 Trade speculation and Shinbeggars discussion

[Alite]

North will have 2 picks before our pick and there's no way they don't pick Curtin with one of those 2. West Coasts best option is to facilitate a trade with North.

2 picks because someone will offer 800k to 1mill per year for Ben McKay…. How is this a real talking point?

 

[Alite]

The asking price is pick 3, F1, Brocky and DGB.

Would you?

No effen way. Take out DGB and Brocky and still No.

Harley is awesome and will be a great player, but give me two very good players every day of the week over one “generational“ player.

The Bont is the best AFL player in 2023, a “generational player“ if ever I have seen one, everything and more than what Harley could become, (a marking fwd, a goal kicker, a mid clearance player, a leader), and yet the Dogs missed the finals (with other great players all around him). 1 “generational” player does not make a team. 2 very good players are the better bet.

 

[Alite]

Would be pick 3 out f1 and brockman from the sounds of it that’s a hell of a lot more than the north proposal of 2 and ports f1. The issue remains north taking Curtin before our pick with 2 or McKay compo.

I see that you did not say that you WANTED the trade that you preposed… just that you thought it would require that level of trade value to get pick 1.

Most clubs would bet our f1 would be approx pick 10 and so 3 and f10 might fit… but as you say, North need a player like Curtin.. who the Eagles likely want.

This years trade period is going to be something to behold. Like no period in recent times, Many clubs will define their futures.

 

[Alite]

Our F1 might be outside the Top 10
Whose to say we don’t get GC first pick this year ?

Then we have 2 options - take two top 6 picks to draft , this year
OR….put all our eggs on the Reidmeister !

Over to you Mr McKenzie……win/win

I have looked at all possibilities that I could imagine (my imaginings are limited) and see no way, said again, NO WAY that we can get GCS pick 4. Other teams can out bid us in every way.

I’d love 2 top 6 picks and would take them in a heartbeat over the Reidmeister.

I am not MM, …. but in his absence will say, over to you hfc70.

 

[Alite]

Main difference is we can offer 2 top 10 picks with one guaranteed top 5 and another likely top 5. Brockman wants out and we aren’t in any position to bargain so I value that at pick 54 but hopeful for 38. DGB has no real value.
West coast know all that they are in prime position. Our 2 x firsts plus 29 is what they would want especially if they can get Curtin. Brockman doesn’t move the needle much likely done separately and early.

FB, wow, no real value on DGB. I cannot concur. Yes he is a slow burn but I see him in our next GF team. Next..
In my opinion Brockman is of top 20 draft value. Given that 70 players are drafted per year and few make it to become best 22 players, which Brockman would surely be if he stayed, then he is a top 20 ND value player every day of the week.

neither are stake knives.

 

[FB19]

I have looked at all possibilities that I could imagine (my imaginings are limited) and see no way, said again, NO WAY that we can get GCS pick 4. Other teams can out bid us in every way.

I’d love 2 top 6 picks and would take them in a heartbeat over the Reidmeister.

I am not MM, but in his absence will say, over to you hfc70.

Our ability to get suns first depends on 2 things:
1. Where the suns assess our f1 being. A lot of optimism here but I think we are another year away from any significant jump. I have us tracking similarly to Adelaide except 2 years behind and we have greater midfield talents and depth and they have great forward talent and depth. If they think like me and our pick is top 5, we are well in it
2. How many points for late first, second and early third round picks suns add during the trade period. 4 is worth 2034 points our pick 29 is worth 653 which leaves 1329 or pick 11. Hollands alone will get most of that so assuming that happens we are again well placed.
If that comes off we give 29 and f1 for r1 and take Watson and Duursma.

 

[FB19]

FB, wow, no real value on DGB. I cannot concur. Yes he is a slow burn but I see him in our next GF team. Next..
In my opinion Brockman is of top 20 draft value. Given that 70 players are drafted per year and few make it to become best 22 players, which Brockman would surely be if he stayed, then he is a top 20 ND value player every day of the week.

neither are stake knives.

What I meant was no real market value. I agree I rate him but his market value is not established.

 

[The Chad and I]

Harley is awesome and will be a great player, but give me two very good players every day of the week over one “generational“ player.

. 1 “generational” player does not make a team. 2 very good players are the better bet.

 

[Alite]

View attachment 1792836

Hodge was generational, a Brilliant player… but from the same draft… a player we said No to was…

 

[Alite]

Hodge was generational, a Brilliant player… but from the same draft… a player we said No to was…

Other “generational players“ come from all over the shop in terms of the ND. I’ll happily put forward failed generational talents to prove my point.

My opinion is for 2 very good players over 1 Harley Reid.

 

[barbster]

Hodge was generational, a Brilliant player… but from the same draft… a player we said No to was…

But you have to realise Hodge was not the clear number 1 that year, all top three picks could have gone at 1. We were keen on Judd with the 1st pick but concerned about his shoulders from memory.

 

[Alite]

But you have to realise Hodge was not the clear number 1 that year, all top three picks could have gone at 1. We were keen on Judd with the 1st pick but concerned about his shoulders from memory.

I was, at the time, very aware of the concerns on Judd. His shoulders were suspect. The point is about generational players and Hodge being ours. Judd went on to be a brilliant player in his first year while Hodge took some time to get into the grove. Both Judd and Hodge became generational players. As did many other Hawks players.

I agree Harley is likely to be an awesome player. But selling the farm for a prize player rarely works. Sydney did it with Franklin and got Zero premierships while his previous teammates got a few more.

I am 100% happy with us playing a straight bat. Get the best available at pick 3(4) and Will McCabe. Then turn whatever currency we have left into a high 2024 draft pick.

 

[tommyk72]

I hear every year how the latest player forecast to be #1 will be a generational player and the best in 10 years. Every year they fail to achieve these heights. My guess is this is an angle driven by the AFL to generate hype and click bait. Now way I’d pay two picks within the top 5 for Reid, let alone Brockman and DGB.

 

[Alite]

tommyk72 , yes this time the kid, Harley, is that good.
North will get Harley after getting 2 other awesome players from last year’s NDdraft… one of which will win the rising star.

And North want help. FaFaforgive me for saying No.

 

[Brishawk]

View attachment 1792836

Funnily enough, the trade we did netted ys two generational talents

Croad and Luke McPharlin were traded to the Dockers, in exchange for pick one (Hodge), pick 20 (Daniel Elstone) and pick 36 (Sam Mitchell).

 

[FB19]

Funnily enough, the trade we did netted ys two generational talents

Croad and Luke McPharlin were traded to the Dockers, in exchange for pick one (Hodge), pick 20 (Daniel Elstone) and pick 36 (Sam Mitchell).

I always thought Daniel Elstone was underrated im glad to see someone finally giving him the credit he deserves. You mean as a director of finance right?

 

[Alite]

Funnily enough, the trade we did netted ys two generational talents

Croad and Luke McPharlin were traded to the Dockers, in exchange for pick one (Hodge), pick 20 (Daniel Elstone) and pick 36 (Sam Mitchell).

Croad and McPharlan were both great players which we lost…. and we got Hodge. The cost was huge. McPharlan went on to become one of the best CHB in the league.
Croad was a good FF for Freo but came back to the hawks and was an awesome CHB.
That is IT for that trade. Does it look good?

The idea that we got Sam Mitchell in this trade forgets that near 35 other teams passed on him.

 

[Mercy Seat]

If North are serious, they’ll be telling WC to deal with them for pick 1 or they’ll pick Curtin. It’s that’s simple. There’ll be a lot of speculative bullshit for the next few months, but at the end of the day, WC are fairly restricted in what they can pull off here as they’re desperate for Curtin. If they’re willing to look past him, then it opens things up for them with other clubs including us. But I just can’t see it happening.

I’d love Reid at the right price, but as others have pointed out, if we could get Duursma and Watson at the exact same price, I know who I’m picking.

 

[Alite]

If North are serious, they’ll be telling WC to deal with them for pick 1 or they’ll pick Curtin. It’s that’s simple. There’ll be a lot of speculative bullshit for the next few months, but at the end of the day, WC are fairly restricted in what they can pull off here as they’re desperate for Curtin. If they’re willing to look past him, then it opens things up for them with other clubs including us. But I just can’t see it happening.

I’d love Reid at the right price, but as others have pointed out, if we could get Duursma and Watson at the exact same price, I know who I’m picking.

Mercy me! Yes.

 

[Hodginator]

I too would be going for Watson and Duursma rather than all in on pick 1

 

[FB19]

If North are serious, they’ll be telling WC to deal with them for pick 1 or they’ll pick Curtin. It’s that’s simple. There’ll be a lot of speculative bullshit for the next few months, but at the end of the day, WC are fairly restricted in what they can pull off here as they’re desperate for Curtin. If they’re willing to look past him, then it opens things up for them with other clubs including us. But I just can’t see it happening.

I’d love Reid at the right price, but as others have pointed out, if we could get Duursma and Watson at the exact same price, I know who I’m picking.

You will have to help me understand what that means. West coast have pick 1 then 19. If west coast pick Reid they won’t get Curtin.

 

[hawkeye77]

I think u will find there are other players that are more expendable than CJ.

Yeah but the more expendable they are the less they demand at the trade table.

For the record I'm on team keep CJ.

 

[Books]

If North are serious, they’ll be telling WC to deal with them for pick 1 or they’ll pick Curtin. It’s that’s simple. There’ll be a lot of speculative bullshit for the next few months, but at the end of the day, WC are fairly restricted in what they can pull off here as they’re desperate for Curtin. If they’re willing to look past him, then it opens things up for them with other clubs including us. But I just can’t see it happening.

I’d love Reid at the right price, but as others have pointed out, if we could get Duursma and Watson at the exact same price, I know who I’m picking.

I agree that WC will want pick 2 for Curtin.

If Hawthorn want Harley, other sacrifices will need to be made. For example... If North ask us about Scrimshaw, we tell them pick 2 for 3 is an essential part of the deal. Hopefully we get another pick as well
Then we can hold the carrot WCE will want.

I also agree with you that Harley would be great but a Duursma /Watson combo would also be excellent.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Main difference is we can offer 2 top 10 picks with one guaranteed top 5 and another likely top 5. Brockman wants out and we aren’t in any position to bargain so I value that at pick 54 but hopeful for 38. DGB has no real value.
West coast know all that they are in prime position. Our 2 x firsts plus 29 is what they would want especially if they can get Curtin. Brockman doesn’t move the needle much likely done separately and early.

Not sure how 3 and a speculative pick next year when we are an improving side (no way known do I think we are likely to have a top 5 pick next year) will be better than Norf being able to offer 2 and Port’s first along with their 1st next year that would absolutely be a top 5 pick. If Norf also get a priority pick at 3 their hand instantly becomes the strongest.

Brockman and DGB absolutely move the needle for them - West Coast need players who can come in and play now as well as picks. I think a combination of picks and players is what would get West Coast’s attention rather than picks alone. The last thing West Coast need this year is another 4 18 year olds not ready for senior footy having to play next year.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

But selling the farm for a prize player rarely works. Sydney did it with Franklin and got Zero premierships while his previous teammates got a few more.

Sydney didn’t sell the farm for Buddy - it inadvertently cost them draft picks but they got him for free in free agency and made two more grand finals out of it. We paid a high price for Burgoyne and it absolutely worked out for us. Port paid a high price for JHF and it’s already paid dividends and would likely continue to with their midfield now stacked.

This isn’t like we are selling the farm at the start of a rebuild - we are deep into it now, the culture and gameplan Sam is building is paying off. Now is the time to take a risky move and bring in the big piece to add to the side. In the absence of a gettable KPP then I’d be keen to make the play for Reid.

I never wanted to tank to get last because I think that rarely ever works because you instill the wrong culture - but making a large trade play for a kid who was ready to play senior footy as a 16 year old - I’m interested.