List Mgmt. 2023 Trade Thread - Part I

[George]

 

[stfan]

I'll take the eye test over fantasy points & the captain is as big a culprit as any in my book.

Yes he's playing hurt but throwing other players under the bus when your own performance is below par is very poor leadership in anyone's language.

??? Two thirds of our team are playing well below their ability at present, including Steele.

So he is just calling it like it is. Part of the Captian's role is to prod the playing group when required. Right now that prod needs to be a massive kick up the arse. If ALL the players do not own up to this now and improve their effort then this season is cooked, and it becomes how low will we slide by seasons end.


Sliding a lot will probably also cook any hope we have at enticing the players or three that we desperately need.


Yes we all know that our list has some key deficiencies (and yes this is magnified by our massive and ongoing injuries), but even poor players can play to their ability. We have too many players playing well below their ability at present).

On the other hand one can see that we have been very reliant in a lift from our younger players this season, and as the season has gone on, quite predictably many of our youth are wilting. Our ongoing injuries mean that we have never had good reserves this year, and so that hurts our ability to play decent football.

The lack of depth also puts pressure on each player more. Hill being an example of a player who looks good in a team playing well, but loses it in a poor team when the pressure ramps up.

So I do appreciate there are reasons for our decline, but part of that is that many of our players are mentally gone at present. Captain and Coach need to try and get them back mentally.

Rockets from the Coach and Captain this week does smack of somewhat of a Hail Mary approach. But equally one can understand that against say Hawks and WCE, as well as North the first time, that the team seemingly just fronted up looking like they thought that their mere presence would deliver a win. EFFORT is needed to win, and just turning up against North would see an ugly loss or win.

 

[Max the great]

Instead of chasing TDK, I’d throw an offer at Sam Hayes, leave Roma as our main man & play Hayes in the forward line where he evidently was pretty handy in his draft years. That way we have someone to chop out in the ruck & all those opposition intercept players may just find it a bit more difficult getting the easy kick.

Would also look at Bonar cheap, to see if RTB can get him to his full potential.

Sam Hayes as a back up ruck/ forward. He's so far from been that type of player it isn't even funny. Absolutely not.

Sent from my SM-S908E using Tapatalk

 

[gringo2011]

Slim pickings to be building a team around. Faaaark.
I guess Clark is there on 80 too.

Yeah, probably 5 that look top shelf and then some potential and battlers.

 

[L_W_P]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his first Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2023 National Draft

www.afl.com.au

Want - Sanders
Realistically - Murphy
Will actually get - Someone not even listed here

 

[Joffaboy]

Steele has been down but he is our only mid AA since Lenny ( or possibly Steven) and has carried the mids on his back for 5 years.
He is a do as I do captain so if he is down his captaincy does not have the same potent effect.
He was up and about prior to his shoulder injury, this injury has been the biggest effect on his form.
I personally think the criticism is a bit OTT, yes he is not having a good year but he didn't get dual AA for no reason.
He will bounce back but for God sake get him some support apart from Crouch.

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his first Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2023 National Draft

www.afl.com.au

Want - Sanders
Realistically - Murphy
Will actually get - Someone not even listed here

Any half back flankers we can get?

 

[botts]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his first Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2023 National Draft

www.afl.com.au

Want - Sanders
Realistically - Murphy
Will actually get - Someone not even listed here

If north get sanders and I reckon they will. 6 top 20 players are off limits to other clubs. Pretty shit house.

 

[L_W_P]

If north get sanders and I reckon they will. 6 top 20 players are off limits to other clubs. Pretty s**t house.

Yep.

The constant tampering with the draft is making it impossible to rebuild properly.

The Dogs are about to get their 3rd top 10 KPF talent in 5 years, all while playing finals.
The Suns still have their own special rules for matching bids as well so another fill up for them.
North will get priority access to a top 10 kid they ordinarily wouldn't.

Meanwhile we will get something like pick 10 but only land the 15th 'best' player...

 

[The Punter]

Yep.

The constant tampering with the draft is making it impossible to rebuild properly.

The Dogs are about to get their 3rd top 10 KPF talent in 5 years, all while playing finals.
The Suns still have their own special rules for matching bids as well so another fill up for them.
North will get priority access to a top 10 kid they ordinarily wouldn't.

Meanwhile we will get something like pick 10 but only land the 15th 'best' player...

All simply fixed. But "tradition"...

 

[bird_man]

All simply fixed. But "tradition"...

I’m not sure I’d call academy selections a tradition

 

[The Punter]

I’m not sure I’d call academy selections a tradition

I don't think there's many supporters of academies south of the Murray River.

The Father-Son rule has been doing more damage for longer.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

But he's been like that, consistently all season. He's not responsible for the slump.
Apart from that, its crap, he's no-where near his best but still miles better than what we're getting from Ross, Byrnes, Gresham etc.

Seb didn't play on Saturday, Gresh has struggled all year & Byrnes is a bottom 6 type who's been pretty good.

I'd suggest that they're easy targets and our form slump is the responsibility of our best players, especially those in the midfield, who seem incapable of hitting a target inside F50 or defending a turnover.

Steeley is just as bad as any in this regard.

Not one player is responsible for the drop off in effort, execution and commitment to carry out the game plan.

 

[The Punter]

Part of the problem is the dropoff has tended to be different players at different times.

 

[L_W_P]

I don't think there's many supporters of academies south of the Murray River.

The Father-Son rule has been doing more damage for longer.

Directly cost us two premierships.

We all thought the bidding system would fix it but when teams can use 5x 3rd round picks to pay for a top 5 father/son or NGA option it's a bit of a joke.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

If north get sanders and I reckon they will. 6 top 20 players are off limits to other clubs. Pretty s**t house.

Its a bitch if the players aren't bid on before the teams first round pick.

If it goes off in the order of Twomey's top 20..... it'll be something like. ( if the ladder is like it is now ).

1 Reid to West Coast.
2 Bid on Walter, to Suns..... all good just a few picks slide back between North and Gold Coast.
3 Watson to North.
4 McKercher to Hawks.
5 Curtin to Melbourne ( Jackson Trade ).
6 Duursma to Sydney
7 Caddy to the Crows.
8 Bid on Read. If matched by Suns with later picks all the picks slide back one.
9 Sanders to GWS.
10 O'Sullivan to Essendon.
11 Bid on Rogers, Gold Coast again. all later picks slide back one.
12 Edwards to the dogs. Croft? is F/S to the dogs, if no-one has bid on him with their first rounder they get an extra first round pick.
13 Bid on Croft, dogs get him as well.
14 Bid on McCabe , Hawks get him as a second first round pick before our first.
15 Saints take Archie Roberts HBF.

Gold Coast will probably trade their first rounder. Either for later picks worth more points, or for a future first, or for a player. They still end up with the same 3 first round value players.

Dogs won't want to risk a bid on Croft before their first round pick. Do they try to trade up in the draft? to ensure that they get a first round pick prior to anyone bidding on Croft, or do they trade down ,knowing that they will get that player anyway? Or do they trade that pick for a player or future pick?
Dogs also have the Lions first round pick to play with.

Winners.
West Coast. Best kid in the draft.
Suns , potential 3 first round quality players, and a player worth a first round pick in trade.
Hawks, 2 first round quality players.
Bulldogs. They can potentially get two first round quality picks, or they can have their F/s and also trade for just about anyone they like.

Happy Enough.
Melbourne. Luke Jackson was an early pick for them, but the timing is pretty damn right for them to get pick 5.

Losers : The usual.

Do we just draft someone like De'Mattia or do we offer up our first and second to try to get the Sun's first rounder.
That would potentially give us a choice of Caddy, Sanders, O'Sullivan, Wilson.
Normally i'd hate this tactic, but this could be a good year to do it.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Directly cost us two premierships.

We all thought the bidding system would fix it but when teams can use 5x 3rd round picks to pay for a top 5 father/son or NGA option it's a bit of a joke.

The system should be that if its a first round bid , you match with a first round pick. Present or future.
If you don't have a first round pick, well that's on you, you knew he was coming through the system. You can live trade for your kid.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yep.

The constant tampering with the draft is making it impossible to rebuild properly.

The Dogs are about to get their 3rd top 10 KPF talent in 5 years, all while playing finals.
The Suns still have their own special rules for matching bids as well so another fill up for them.
North will get priority access to a top 10 kid they ordinarily wouldn't.

Meanwhile we will get something like pick 10 but only land the 15th 'best' player...

Can we get the Suns first round pick off them? It would probably cost us our first and second.

 

[L_W_P]

Can we get the Suns first round pick off them? It would probably cost us our first and second.

See, that's what's wrong with the System.

The Suns will get 2 or 3 first round talents this year AND they will trade their 1st rounder out to next year's draft as well, effectively giving them a free swing in 2024.

On paper, for us, something like our 2024 1st + our 2023 2nd for the Suns 1st pick this year and a F3rd or 4th is probably fair enough but the cumulative impact of these deals means the Suns are always an extra pick or 2 in front. This is only amplified as more players come through their academy.

Meanwhile we miss out on MacKenzie because... reasons.

 

[luca77]

Seb didn't play on Saturday, Gresh has struggled all year & Byrnes is a bottom 6 type who's been pretty good.

I'd suggest that they're easy targets and our form slump is the responsibility of our best players, especially those in the midfield, who seem incapable of hitting a target inside F50 or defending a turnover.

Steeley is just as bad as any in this regard.

Not one player is responsible for the drop off in effort, execution and commitment to carry out the game plan.

Seb's going to cop a lot partly because he feels a bit like a barometer for the team sometimes.
When he's up and about, and not stuffing things up, it feels like it coincides with the team doing OK. Then when the season starts to fizzle, it feels like he either goes missing (figuratively, not just literally like last weekend) or goes all Dougal Howard on us.

We need to try to turn our midfield problem into an advantage. Usually kids like Owens, Windy, Matteus would struggle to get games, let along midfield minutes this early in their careers. We have a really good chance to get good, significant midfield time into them. Might be hard if they're fatigued or flat, but experience is experience in the end.

I feel like we're almost at a point where doing that, or not doing that won't really impact our chances of making finals all that much (whether we should be thinking about that or not is another matter). Sometimes you have to make a call between playing for now and playing for the future. Steele being down, Ross being down or injured, Jones returning, Gresh not playing the way we'd like... Of the mids, probably only Crouch is probably playing somewhere near his ceiling at this point of his career. So either/or at this point really.

 

[70s sainter]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his first Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2023 National Draft

www.afl.com.au

Want - Sanders
Realistically - Murphy
Will actually get - Someone not even listed here

Tank for duursma?

 

[70s sainter]

See, that's what's wrong with the System.

The Suns will get 2 or 3 first round talents this year AND they will trade their 1st rounder out to next year's draft as well, effectively giving them a free swing in 2024.

On paper, for us, something like our 2024 1st + our 2023 2nd for the Suns 1st pick this year and a F3rd or 4th is probably fair enough but the cumulative impact of these deals means the Suns are always an extra pick or 2 in front. This is only amplified as more players come through their academy.

Meanwhile we miss out on MacKenzie because... reasons.

100% its almost at the stage where youve got to check yourself for feeling a bit nieve believing were even a chance at all in this system

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Tank for duursma?

Is it mathematically possible?

 

[SaintSlayer]

Gresham, Ross, Wood, Phillpou , Stocker, Byrnes the main culprits in my book.
Not that they do anything in particular wrong, just that their output has declined more and more since those early wins.

AFL Fantasy points are just that, a fantasy, but they are a measure of stats, and i think its safe to say that if a player goes from scoring 100 points per week to 80, unless they have changed their role significantly, they have gone backwards.

So if i graph out the AFLF points through the year, its an indicator of whether that player is better, worse or just all over the shop.

So i looked at our players. I took their average after their bye and compared it as a percentage to their average before the bye.
That's not the whole story, because several of our players played their guts out in the first few weeks and coasted the rest of the season.
So i also included the trend , up or down over the season.

I didn't count games where the player was injured early.

Wanganeen-Milera 123% Up.
Howard 117% , up.
Crouch 111% , up
Sinclair 110% , up.
Marshal 106% , Slightly up
Butler 105% ,Slightly up.
Wilkie 102% , Flat
Steele 100% , Flat
Hill 100% , Down
Caminiti 98% , Flat

Battle 95%, Slightly Down
Gresham , 94% Down ( from a very low starting point ).
Ross , 93%, Down
Owens , 92% ,Down
Wood , 90% , Down
Phillipou, 83% Down.
Higgins , 80% , Down.
Stocker , 74% , Down
Byrnes , 65% , Down

Our performance dropped away when Steele and King returned.

Steele and Crouch are inside players and Ross, Wood and Clarke, etc are required to cover and be more defensive. Hence the reduced points. Crouch points have increased, but has his impact with those disposals increased?

King has a lot to learn about forward craft with being agressive with his leads and attacking the ball in the air. He is young and needs an on ground mentor to further his development.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

See, that's what's wrong with the System.

The Suns will get 2 or 3 first round talents this year AND they will trade their 1st rounder out to next year's draft as well, effectively giving them a free swing in 2024.

On paper, for us, something like our 2024 1st + our 2023 2nd for the Suns 1st pick this year and a F3rd or 4th is probably fair enough but the cumulative impact of these deals means the Suns are always an extra pick or 2 in front. This is only amplified as more players come through their academy.

Meanwhile we miss out on MacKenzie because... reasons.

I'm not sure the Suns will be able to go for next years picks.
With 3 first rounders they may have trouble matching.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Our performance dropped away when Steele and King returned.

Steele and Crouch are inside players and Ross, Wood and Clarke, etc are required to cover and be more defensive. Hence the reduced points. Crouch points have increased, but has his impact with those disposals increased?

King has a lot to learn about forward craft with being agressive with his leads and attacking the ball in the air. He is young and needs an on ground mentor to further his development.

That makes sense.
I doubt if Crouch's impact has changed much through the season though. So it could be that others leaving the bulk of the heavy lifting to him is highlighting his weaknesses.
We might be seeing something similar with Howard, who is getting more points, but is he the guy who we want to get more points ( intercepts are good, kicking is not good ).