2024 Draft Thread.

[Mat Mann]

 

[Armoooo]

Are we still going to be in the hunt to get a potential gun midfielder or is our picks just slightly out of that range and we end up picking more the potential half-back/winger type?

The groupthink is that the following players are the elite mids:

Ashcroft, O'Sullivan, Lalor, Smith, Draper, Langford and Smilie.

It's being widely assumed that North will take the Viking which would guarantee one of us. There is also some hope that Melbourne might go tall (I really doubt it), and we'll get two, which is why some people are open to the idea of trading back pick 8 if there's only one left on draft night.

I have found it interesting seeing this phenomenon occur with other supporters. I had a West Coast supporter tell me on reddit the other day that the top 12 players are all even (conveniently when they have their first pick). So it seems that there's an anchoring bias at play.

If you look back through past years draft analysis you'll find many of the consensus opinions only have a 50% strike rate. So no matter what anybody tells you, it's still mostly guesswork.

History is a better guide than the armchair experts and that suggests that there will almost certainly be guns available at picks 8 and 9. Whether or not we identify them is another issue.

 

[HeavenlySources]

Or we try to get 10 or 11 with a future first. Richmond will want to move some picks into next year.

Is this a realistic chance of happening? Pick 10 or 11 would be a massive get but we already offered up F1+F2 for 9 and 13 and got knocked back

The groupthink is that the following players are the elite mids:

Ashcroft, O'Sullivan, Lalor, Smith, Draper, Langford and Smilie.

It's being widely assumed that North will take the Viking which would guarantee one of us. There is also some hope that Melbourne might go tall (I really doubt it), and we'll get two, which is why some people are open to the idea of trading back pick 8 if there's only one left on draft night.

I have found it interesting seeing this phenomenon occur with other supporters. I had a West Coast supporter tell me on reddit the other day that the top 12 players are all even (conveniently when they have their first pick). So it seems that there's an anchoring bias at play.

If you look back through past years draft analysis you'll find many of the consensus opinions only have a 50% strike rate. So no matter what anybody tells you, it's still mostly guesswork.

History is a better guide than the armchair experts and that suggests that there will almost certainly be guns available at picks 8 and 9. Whether or not we identify them is another issue.

Hopefully the group think is wrong again, there will definitely be guns later in the draft probably worth more in a re-draft but do our recruitment team have the balls to go left field and pick a massive bolter in the top 10

 

[Armoooo]

Is this a realistic chance of happening? Pick 10 or 11 would be a massive get but we already offered up F1+F2 for 9 and 13 and got knocked back

Hopefully the group think is wrong again, there will definitely be guns later in the draft probably worth more in a re-draft but do our recruitment team have the balls to go left field and pick a massive bolter in the top 10

Bulldogs identified Bont as their man and Melbourne did similar with Oliver. They took a massive chance on blokes that were late bloomers and it won them flags.

We could just look at the phantom drafts and pick the highest rated players and have the happiest fans in the land after draft day but it's no sure thing.

 

[RWB4life]

Or we try to get 10 or 11 with a future first. Richmond will want to move some picks into next year.

That's what I want most f1 and a f2 if we can trade them for 10.

Take two of the top group even if it's smillie/langford/Reid then if melbourne bas taken a mid at 5 they surely take Armstrong or they take whoever we don't pick. Then another pick between travaglia and lindsay.

 

[akaifu]

The groupthink is that the following players are the elite mids:

Ashcroft, O'Sullivan, Lalor, Smith, Draper, Langford and Smilie.

It's being widely assumed that North will take the Viking which would guarantee one of us. There is also some hope that Melbourne might go tall (I really doubt it), and we'll get two, which is why some people are open to the idea of trading back pick 8 if there's only one left on draft night.

I have found it interesting seeing this phenomenon occur with other supporters. I had a West Coast supporter tell me on reddit the other day that the top 12 players are all even (conveniently when they have their first pick). So it seems that there's an anchoring bias at play.

If you look back through past years draft analysis you'll find many of the consensus opinions only have a 50% strike rate. So no matter what anybody tells you, it's still mostly guesswork.

History is a better guide than the armchair experts and that suggests that there will almost certainly be guns available at picks 8 and 9. Whether or not we identify them is another issue.

At this point in time, Melbourne will 100% go a mid at 5 and tall at 9. Good thing is the mid could possibly be Murphy Reid. Then just need Richmond to take Langford over Jagga so we can take the Smillie + Jagga combo

 

[Hayes4PM]

Smillie and Reid would be my ideal / realistic scenario. Smith, FOS, Draper, Lalor, Langford, Ashcroft will almost certainly be gone, but one or both of Smillie and Reid will probably be available. Otherwise one of the guys rated ahead (Langford or Draper maybe) might be available if Smillie or Reid go top 6.





Physically still needs to develop a lot, but still plays midfield and wins his own ball, doesn't seem put off by the physical pressure and attention of opposition mids. Has class with disposal, reminds me a bit of Sheezel.




Mundy 2.0 or Cripps 2.0 either way, it's a win.

All of a sudden our midfield has a bit more depth to it.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Or we try to get 10 or 11 with a future first. Richmond will want to move some picks into next year.

We may be in the best position to do so.
With all the other clubs working hard to get picks 1 - 6 they may not be keen to split them. And we have 8 we could use if we are smart and depending how the draftting goes on the night and which players get through to us.
Should be interesting viewing.

 

[triggering bro]

I reckon Langford will go higher than most think. Won’t get past Melbourne’s pick 5 for mine.

 

[Armoooo]

At this point in time, Melbourne will 100% go a mid at 5 and tall at 9. Good thing is the mid could possibly be Murphy Reid. Then just need Richmond to take Langford over Jagga so we can take the Smillie + Jagga combo

I doubt Jagga makes it to us, but I definitely wouldn't complain.

His numbers are obviously great, but what stood out to me when watching one of his games was his demeanour before the opening bounce. Had the perfect level of figjam about him, made me overcome some of my reservations about his build.

It's completely intangible and may be proven to be completely wrong, but sometimes you can see in someone's body language that they have that killer instinct. Billings had all the talent in the world but he looked like a scared little boy at times, this kid looked the exact opposite.

It reminded me of Michael Gardiner walking onto the field in round 14, 2009. I was watching that game with my grandad and as soon as I saw that look on his face I told him that he was going to have a big game.

I don't think you can teach that mindset.

 

[ScrappyDo]

At this point in time, Melbourne will 100% go a mid at 5 and tall at 9. Good thing is the mid could possibly be Murphy Reid. Then just need Richmond to take Langford over Jagga so we can take the Smillie + Jagga combo

I think I'm gonna need to check out for a while. 5 weeks of endless draft scenarios is gonna be too much.

 

[Hayes4PM]

I think I'm gonna need to check out for a while. 5 weeks of endless draft scenarios is gonna be too much.

You'll be back! What if a new phantom draft drops?

 

[ScrappyDo]

The groupthink is that the following players are the elite mids:

Ashcroft, O'Sullivan, Lalor, Smith, Draper, Langford and Smilie.

It's being widely assumed that North will take the Viking which would guarantee one of us. There is also some hope that Melbourne might go tall (I really doubt it), and we'll get two, which is why some people are open to the idea of trading back pick 8 if there's only one left on draft night.

I have found it interesting seeing this phenomenon occur with other supporters. I had a West Coast supporter tell me on reddit the other day that the top 12 players are all even (conveniently when they have their first pick). So it seems that there's an anchoring bias at play.

If you look back through past years draft analysis you'll find many of the consensus opinions only have a 50% strike rate. So no matter what anybody tells you, it's still mostly guesswork.

History is a better guide than the armchair experts and that suggests that there will almost certainly be guns available at picks 8 and 9. Whether or not we identify them is another issue.

I think youve got that wrong about the group think.
2 mids are constantly rated top
2 mids are constantly rated next
2 mids are constantly rated next
10 or so are constantly rated next,

 

[ScrappyDo]

You'll be back! What if a new phantom draft drops?

There'll be another one.

 

[gringo2011]

The groupthink is that the following players are the elite mids:

Ashcroft, O'Sullivan, Lalor, Smith, Draper, Langford and Smilie.

It's being widely assumed that North will take the Viking which would guarantee one of us. There is also some hope that Melbourne might go tall (I really doubt it), and we'll get two, which is why some people are open to the idea of trading back pick 8 if there's only one left on draft night.

I have found it interesting seeing this phenomenon occur with other supporters. I had a West Coast supporter tell me on reddit the other day that the top 12 players are all even (conveniently when they have their first pick). So it seems that there's an anchoring bias at play.

If you look back through past years draft analysis you'll find many of the consensus opinions only have a 50% strike rate. So no matter what anybody tells you, it's still mostly guesswork.

History is a better guide than the armchair experts and that suggests that there will almost certainly be guns available at picks 8 and 9. Whether or not we identify them is another issue.

Lalor doesn't look a pure mid to me. More Stringer or maybe DeGoey/ Petracca if lucky.

Midfield is a general term for a few types too. Inside mids who extract, inside first receivers who break away, speedy types that hit the ball with pace and motor through traffic, bulls with strength, outside run who carry the ball out into space etc.

Lyon has never loved guys who can't spread run even if they are gun extractors. You probably want to specify what we will be looking for. I imagine ball winners with high work rate and endurance along with a bit of pace. Probably makes Smith, Draper types his ideal and then guys like Travaglia and Lindsay who have a bit of that.

 

[Yabadoo22]

My post trade period attempt at a phantom

1-tigers: Sam lalor
2-lions: Levi Ashcroft
3-Roos: Alix Tauru
4-blues: Sid Draper
5-crows: fin O'Sullivan
6-Dees: Harvey Langford
7-tigers: Jagga smith
8-suns: Leo Lombard
9-dons: Isaac Kako
10-saints: Josh smillie
11-saints: taj hotton

 

[bakes10]

At this point in time, Melbourne will 100% go a mid at 5 and tall at 9. Good thing is the mid could possibly be Murphy Reid. Then just need Richmond to take Langford over Jagga so we can take the Smillie + Jagga combo

I’ve got the feeling that Melb want Armstrong so if we threaten that we’ll pick him then they’ll need to use pick 5 on him.

 

[gringo2011]

I’ve got the feeling that Melb want Armstrong so if we threaten that we’ll pick him then they’ll need to use pick 5 on him.

I can't see them going KPF again. Their ageing midfield and rebound run and small forward stocks need padding too.

 

[Armoooo]

I’ve got the feeling that Melb want Armstrong so if we threaten that we’ll pick him then they’ll need to use pick 5 on him.

With King, Sharman and Caminiti deserving a chance to gel, I don't see that threat being too convincing tbh.

Melbourne also already have a set and forget key forward for the next decade, I expect them to take two mids. If the Viking was available they might be tempted to draft a replacement for May / Lever, but if that were the case it would mean North had unexpectedly drafted a mid already so it wouldn't really benefit us.