2024 Draft Thread.

[Joffaboy]

Im not writing him off I just dont rate him as high as others. Reid is no slower than Smillie and he could get 20 disposals a game and they would be a lot more effective than Smillie's 30. So you think my not rating Smillie as high as others makes me an outlier. I guess that just strengthens my thoughts that your opinions come from others.

The modern game elite midfielders are about players who can extract the ball from stoppages, burst out facing towards goals and hit up a team mate. I just dont see Smillie with those midfield traits. The midfielders I rate ahead of Smillie are - Draper, Smith, Langford, O'Sullivan, Reid, Lindsay and possibly Lalor. He may get taken earlier but we wont know who is correct for years, so our discussion is just a dick measuring contest really.

Wow the bolded part is pretty insulting considering he just told you he goes to Coates games etc.

Would be interesting to know where you get your opinions from as W2L asked before?

None of us has a clue what they will turn out to be. Everybody in the football industry would have taken Billings over Bont. Many thought he was a reach at four, too slow, couldn't burst out facing goal, etc. How wrong everyone was. Cripps was a pick 13. Jimmy Toumpas, Paddy Dow were pick 3.

 

[stavro#4]

Wow the bolded part is pretty insulting considering he just told you he goes to Coates games etc.

Would be interesting to know where you get your opinions from as W2L asked before?

None of us has a clue what they will turn out to be. Everybody in the football industry would have taken Billings over Bont. Many thought he was a reach at four, too slow, couldn't burst out facing goal, etc. How wrong everyone was. Cripps was a pick 13. Jimmy Toumpas, Paddy Dow were pick 3.

I saw your other post you cheeky prick

In all honesty I don’t really care whether he or you agree with me.

I’m comfortable in what I’ve seen. The order will be the order but I can clearly see why Smillie is touted as the number 1 pick. I can see how the likes of Jagga and Reid are having better seasons, but why Smillie is the higher prospect.

As you said, they are 18 and with that means they are not the finished article. If however you are going to work on a mould, the 194 cm kid who can play mid forward or back is the ideal type of talent to develop.

 

[The Jack]

Feel we need to invest in some for second rounders to grab so big bargains.

We'll have the one we get for Battle. That's 2 already.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

I saw your other post you cheeky prick

In all honesty I don’t really care whether he or you agree with me.

I’m comfortable in what I’ve seen. The order will be the order but I can clearly see why Smillie is touted as the number 1 pick. I can see how the likes of Jagga and Reid are having better seasons, but why Smillie is the higher prospect.

As you said, they are 18 and with that means they are not the finished article. If however you are going to work on a mould, the 194 cm kid who can play mid forward or back is the ideal type of talent to develop.

Some people may not be aware that while recruiters draft kids mainly based on their performances at U18 level they also base their decisions on where they project a kid to be in 5+ years.

Hence why we've seen so many examples over the years of kids who have been absolutely dominant at junior levels & gone undrafted... and why we've seen kids come from the clouds & then become stars.

Re: Smilie, there may be a school of thought that he's a man playing against kids but the simple fact that he has been widely accepted as a top 3 pick all year shows that he has many more strings to his bow than simply size.

Look where George Stevens went last year & he was a kid of similar size & output to Smilie and lasted until pick 58.

Our weakness is getting the ball from a contested situation out to our ball users. A Jagga/Smilie combination sounds pretty tantalising IMO...

But I am only relying on televised games & a few highlights packages so I will defer to more informed SBF colleagues

 

[akaifu]

Pretty sure Langford tested quite a bit slower (20m sprint and agility tests) than Murphy Reid in preseason.

That may be true, but Langford definitely uses his legs more in-game. His natural instinct is to run with ball in hand and take a bounce or two. Haven’t seen Murphy do that much at all, he’s usually dishing the ball off by hand as soon as he gets it. Can argue that this can be taught, but I’d prefer the natural ‘take the game on’ type

 

[stavro#4]

Some people may not be aware that while recruiters draft kids mainly based on their performances at U18 level they also base their decisions on where they project a kid to be in 5+ years.

Hence why we've seen so many examples over the years of kids who have been absolutely dominant at junior levels & gone undrafted... and why we've seen kids come from the clouds & then become stars.

Re: Smilie, there may be a school of thought that he's a man playing against kids but the simple fact that he has been widely accepted as a top 3 pick all year shows that he has many more strings to his bow than simply size.

Look where George Stevens went last year & he was a kid of similar size & output to Smilie and lasted until pick 58.

Our weakness is getting the ball from a contested situation out to our ball users. A Jagga/Smilie combination sounds pretty tantalising IMO...

But I am only relying on televised games & a few highlights packages so I will defer to more informed SBF colleagues

Completely agree with you mate.

He might be bigger than these kids now. But he has exhibited good football across the ground. He is having a statistical impact at that level. He hits the scoreboard.

There is a lot that AFL sides would love to work with over the next few years.

I think it’s obvious in whatever format you have seen Smillie play - why he has universally been regarded as a top pick.

 

[akaifu]

Some people may not be aware that while recruiters draft kids mainly based on their performances at U18 level they also base their decisions on where they project a kid to be in 5+ years.

Hence why we've seen so many examples over the years of kids who have been absolutely dominant at junior levels & gone undrafted... and why we've seen kids come from the clouds & then become stars.

Re: Smilie, there may be a school of thought that he's a man playing against kids but the simple fact that he has been widely accepted as a top 3 pick all year shows that he has many more strings to his bow than simply size.

Look where George Stevens went last year & he was a kid of similar size & output to Smilie and lasted until pick 58.

Our weakness is getting the ball from a contested situation out to our ball users. A Jagga/Smilie combination sounds pretty tantalising IMO...

But I am only relying on televised games & a few highlights packages so I will defer to more informed SBF colleagues

I remember an extreme example of this a couple years back (I think it was the 2022 draft)

Mitch Szybkowski was an inside mid that was in the first and second rounds of so many mock drafts and went undrafted - my guess is that it was because of his lack of speed. Now he’s in the VFL and you can see why recruiters didn’t rate him at all

 

[SteeleSaints]

My thoughts are exactly what I see.
A 194cm midfielder - who hits the scoreboard and has the positional flexibility to play across the ground is very unique.
I can see why that makes him the favourite to be pick 1.
Reid might have a highly skilled kick. But Smillie has the bigger ceiling purely because of those physical attributes. He is the prototype AFL midfielder in 2024.
That’s why you are failing to grasp.

I hope he is taken at No 1 to be honest so we dont get tempted. Langford, Lalor and Hynes offer the same versatility as Smillie and all are actually much better over head marks and more dangerous around goals. Opinions are like arse holes we all have them, some accept others some dont.

In any event is seems you have the support of another poster whose opinion should never be questioned, so I wont take it any further. Im sure you will respond as that is something you do consistently - is have to have the last say. Cheers...

 

[gringo2011]

It was more that it’s really hard to peg what position he will be an AFL level.

I think we all saw Clark as a mid or half back - comfortably, depending on his development.

Billings was meant to be a match winning half forward - who moved to a wing and accumulated plenty of ball but probably didn’t have a huge impact on the result.

Thats what terrifies me of potentially taking Reid.

Billings never played much midfield did he? Reid actually played on ball and looked better than a lot of the pure one portion mids. It's usually a bonus when they excel in a few spots.

 

[gringo2011]

That may be true, but Langford definitely uses his legs more in-game. His natural instinct is to run with ball in hand and take a bounce or two. Haven’t seen Murphy do that much at all, he’s usually dishing the ball off by hand as soon as he gets it. Can argue that this can be taught, but I’d prefer the natural ‘take the game on’ type

Testing is a handy guide but shouldn't overrule the eye test. Hunter Clark tests well at endurance but is as slow as **** especially on the chase.

Langford certainly doesn't look slow to the eye. Reid I can't really remember looking rushed with the ball in hand either though. He seems to be a very good user of the ball, good vision and quick to spot up options ahead of the ball.

 

[SteeleSaints]

Billings never played much midfield did he? Reid actually played on ball and looked better than a lot of the pure one portion mids. It's usually a bonus when they excel in a few spots.

Reid is exactly the same as others playing Vic state sides he was initially squeezed out of the midfield, but when given the opportunity he excelled. He plays full time mid at Sandringham but even there they have so much talent they rotate the players heavily. For some to suggest he isnt a full time mid highlights how little they know about the players outside the championships.

Zak Johnson and Copper Hynes are others who are absolute ball pig midfielders at Coates League, but were pushed to the HBF or HFF to play throughout the championships. Lindsay another full time midfielder who played mainly off a wing in the championships.

 

[akaifu]

Reid is exactly the same as others playing Vic state sides he was initially squeezed out of the midfield, but when give the opportunity he excelled. He plays full time mid at Sandringham but even there they have so much talent they rotate the players heavily. For some to suggest he isnt a full time mid highlights how little they know about the players outside the championships.

Zak Johnson and Copper Hynes are others who are absolute ball pig midfielders at Coates League, but were pushed to the HBF or HFF to play throughout the championships.

everyone knows Murphy is a full time midfielder both at the present and in the long-term

The only time he won’t be is when he’s first starting his AFL career, Cal Twomey literally said he’s more likely to start his career at half back

I love the look of Hynes, feel like he could be a Chad Warner type player and we desperately need that. Hopefully slides to our 2nd rounder. Johnson looks good too but would depend on how we go at 4&5

 

[Joffaboy]

Speaking of Smillie being bigger than the kids are at his age. How many AFL midfielders are 194cm that are on a list?

I would wager not too many.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Billings never played much midfield did he? Reid actually played on ball and looked better than a lot of the pure one portion mids. It's usually a bonus when they excel in a few spots.

Billings played plenty of midfield as a junior... it's just that he was absolutely deadly across HF & that's what recruiters got a massive boner over.

 

[stavro#4]

Billings played plenty of midfield as a junior... it's just that he was absolutely deadly across HF & that's what recruiters got a massive boner over.

Was Mr X factor. Would always bob up with match winning plays or quarters

I remember that being the huge selling point with him.

 

[gringo2011]

Billings played plenty of midfield as a junior... it's just that he was absolutely deadly across HF & that's what recruiters got a massive boner over.

Looks like he had runs in there but played mostly forward from this.


Weaknesses: Question marks whether he can play as a full-time midfielder

2013 Draft Profile: Jack Billings

Jack Billings (Oakleigh Chargers) Height: 183 cm Weight: 78 kg Position: Forward/Midfielder Player comparison: Isaac Smith/Jamie Elliot Strengths: Marking, Positioning, Strength Weaknesses: Question marks whether he can play as a full-time midfielder Jack Billings has had top ten draft pick...

central.rookieme.com

 

[stavro#4]

Looks like he had runs in there but played mostly forward from this.


Weaknesses: Question marks whether he can play as a full-time midfielder

2013 Draft Profile: Jack Billings

Jack Billings (Oakleigh Chargers) Height: 183 cm Weight: 78 kg Position: Forward/Midfielder Player comparison: Isaac Smith/Jamie Elliot Strengths: Marking, Positioning, Strength Weaknesses: Question marks whether he can play as a full-time midfielder Jack Billings has had top ten draft pick...

central.rookieme.com

Thats one weird scouting report.

Billings has continued his form at the Under 18s Championships by impressing across the three division one matches throughout the midfield but primarily up forward.

While Billings doesn’t have the elite kick that fellow Vic Josh Kelly


One interesting aspect of the first round will be to see whether teams favour Billings over Lennon or prefer to go with the more versatile player who can also play in defense.

 

[gubby88]

Was Mr X factor. Would always bob up with match winning plays or quarters

I remember that being the huge selling point with him.

and did it a few times at st kilda until he got absolutely richod

On SM-A156E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[stavro#4]

and did it a few times at st kilda until he got absolutely richod

On SM-A156E using BigFooty.com mobile app

I feel like he just mentally shrunk infront of goals.

When I think back to his time with us. There was so many times he could be the man of the moment and he would miss - difference between a gun and a good/serviceable player.

 

[akaifu]

I feel like he just mentally shrunk infront of goals.

When I think back to his time with us. There was so many times he could be the man of the moment and he would miss - difference between a gun and a good/serviceable player.

Literally just yesterday he had the chance to kick a goal 25m out slight angle on the run and he handballed it to Langdon who was on his opposite foot and ultimately they screwed up the chain

Prime Billings would’ve slot that through the big sticks every time

 

[StCicatriz]

Jeez, i hope he got laid when he was 18.

what are you on about? he looks like he ****S!

probably produces atleast 5 father sons... probably another 10 off the books.

 

[stfan]

The stat literally shows that he gets more center clearances than most of our list when put in the middle.

We are going in circles here. If you want to look at how he goes as a inside mid you need to deduct the clearances he has won when playing as a ruck, which you are not. Winning clearances against a lumbering ruckman is very different winning them against mobile midfielders.




Marshall has racked up clearances as a ruck. Do you really believe that Marshall would win as many clearances if he attended the Centre Bounces as a mid? He wins that as he is:
1/ Prioritising winning the clearance over the hit out
2/ He is often more mobile that his opponent.

Owens is doing the same thing, but winning clearances this way is not the same skillset as a mid. It is a different form of contest. You cannot just say well he wins clearances as a chop out ruck, so he will win clearances when he has to compete for the ball against top flight mid.

 

[gringo2011]

Thats one weird scouting report.

Billings has continued his form at the Under 18s Championships by impressing across the three division one matches throughout the midfield but primarily up forward.

While Billings doesn’t have the elite kick that fellow Vic Josh Kelly


One interesting aspect of the first round will be to see whether teams favour Billings over Lennon or prefer to go with the more versatile player who can also play in defense.

I looked at a few. Most said he was injured with a knee in his draft year but had a few runs on ball but excelled in the forward line. Everything you read says that the midfield was a question mark over his game. I actually think we ****ed him by putting too much pressure on him. He probably ends up a star if he’d been at Hawthorn or a better system. He’s a bit fragile mentally so in an elite environment developing at his own pace you probably end up with a better player. Funny enough I remember a drill out at Seaford where he was doing midfield drills, he was winning heaps of ball off our good mids.

 

[stavro#4]

I looked at a few. Most said he was injured with a knee in his draft year but had a few runs on ball but excelled in the forward line. Everything you read says that the midfield was a question mark over his game. I actually think we ****ed him by putting too much pressure on him. He probably ends up a star if he’d been at Hawthorn or a better system. He’s a bit fragile mentally so in an elite environment developing at his own pace you probably end up with a better player. Funny enough I remember a drill out at Seaford where he was doing midfield drills, he was winning heaps of ball off our good mids.

Who knows. He looked like he was getting to that elite level for awhile and then it never happened and he regressed quickly.

I don’t blame him for leaving but I also think Ross got it right with JB

 

[Sarcoidevo]

.

My thoughts are exactly what I see.

A 194cm midfielder - who hits the scoreboard and has the positional flexibility to play across the ground is very unique.

I can see why that makes him the favourite to be pick 1.

Reid might have a highly skilled kick. But Smillie has the bigger ceiling purely because of those physical attributes. He is the prototype AFL midfielder in 2024.

That’s why you are failing to grasp.

The current problem with Smillie is that given his size and skill attributes he is not consistently dominating at U18 level .... which he should be .... some have mentioned he looks lazy / disinterested / no urgency .... therefore alarm bells are ringing

You take that type of energy commitment into senior AFL level you wont last long no matter your size or skill level