2024 Draft Thread.

[Mat Mann]

 

[Armoooo]

Because next years first still would hold more value for POINTS to the academy sides then trading in and taking effectively a start of second round pick.

Make sense?

Who are Carlton and Port planning on needing points for next year? They'd surely rather a pick this year going by your rating of the drafts.

You seem to have a pretty myopic view of things, you discredit everyone else's assets to paint a view that we're the only club that make moves that are available to 17 other clubs.

The value of future firsts seems to fluctuate based on whatever makes st kildas hand stronger, but it doesn't work like that.

 

[Joffaboy]

I would be very happy if Smillie gets to our pick 7. Combination of him and a classy ball user like Lindsay is elite.

Still leaves us with the need for a pacey, explosive mid though. I guess we do have that on the outside with Nas, Garcia etc.

Wilson as well.

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[stavro#4]

Who are Carlton and Port planning on needing points for next year? They'd surely rather a pick this year going by your rating of the drafts.

You seem to have a pretty myopic view of things, you discredit everyone else's assets to paint a view that we're the only club that make moves that are available to 17 other clubs.

The value of future firsts seems to fluctuate based on whatever makes st kildas hand stronger, but it doesn't work like that.

You don’t have a great understanding of what I’m trying to explain - thus thinking I’m being myopic.

Carlton or Port will a) have a lower pick next year then 18/19/20 this year.

And

B) the amount of academy sides who will need their pick, will give them more value. Your premise is that their future first is less valuable then arguably an early second in this draft.

As I’ve explained a million times. Essendon can complete any trade.

But a trade of value that every is happy with is very hard to achieve.

They have 3 picks including 9. They need points to match and picks to select with - whilst gaining a future first.

They have a number of list vacancies and only Kako coming in right now with Stone rejecting them.

I really can’t explain this any further mate. It’s there infront of you.

 

[akaifu]

When are you too tall to be a mid?

The taller the better as long as you maintain an adequate level of agility, running ability, and power. Hopefully he can continue to burst through packs similar to Cripps because that’d be an exciting prospect

For once, opposition might actually fear our midfield

 

[SaintsSeptember]

There’s concussion and the new afl protocols and then there’s getting knocked out cold concussions. Obviously we’d want to be all over his history. I think if you applied todays approach many guys in the 60’s, 70’s would have had a dozen or more. Doctors sitting there looking at slow motion footage and rightfully erring on the side of caution.

Trainor is a ripper he can play back, go forward and kick goals he’s very versatile. I wouldn’t draft him with our first two picks because we have greater needs but anything after that he’d have to be in discussion's imo.

Not necessarily one better than the other medically.
I couldn't remember Billy Longer being knocked out, yet concussion was the reason for his retirement. ( although most here seem to think he was delisted due to spuddedness ).

From his time on ground stats , i can only see a single game for the Saints, where Koby Stevens didn't play out most of a game. I was surprised to hear about his concussion issues. But when you read about it he's had very significant issues since a KO in his first game.

Saints rule out Billy Longer for a month

St Kilda ruckman ruled out for a month with concerns over head injury

www.afl.com.au

Ex-Eagle turns to Hollywood to shine light on concussion

A former Eagle has refused to end up as just another statistic as he teams up with some of Hollywood’s biggest talent to shine the spotlight on concussion.

thewest.com.au

 

[stavro#4]

Armoooo did you just listen to Matt Rosas interview?

He effectively said they can’t trade up because everyone wants to be at the top end of this draft and will need to trade down and out (admitting defeat about the entire Kako bluffing story you believe)

He also said they want 3-4 picks.

They have 3 including 9 and an ass end draft pick.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Not sure why but I think the AFL would have been much more reluctant to give Battle Band 1 Compo and hand over pick 6 compared to getting pick 8 for him. With the secret herbs and spices of the compo picks, Higgins goal could have actually helped us get Band 1

I think that's complete nonsense. If he hadn't snuck into the top 5% payment class he wouldn't have got it.
However you might be right, and we'll never know.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Who are Carlton and Port planning on needing points for next year? They'd surely rather a pick this year going by your rating of the drafts.

You seem to have a pretty myopic view of things, you discredit everyone else's assets to paint a view that we're the only club that make moves that are available to 17 other clubs.

The value of future firsts seems to fluctuate based on whatever makes st kildas hand stronger, but it doesn't work like that.

TBH I'd rather just read what is a possibility for us than what is a possibility for other clubs.

We all known nothing is guaranteed at this time of year...

What we do know at this point in time is that we are hotly pursuing #9 from the Dopers. Beyond that no one knows.

 

[Mangus]

Will be interesting to see which clubs set themselves up strategically for 2025 out of this period and what that looks like. With the new DVI coming into play and only picks up to pick 54 having points value the future 4ths effectively hold no value anymore. Also the discount is dropping from 20% to 10%.

GC Bris and Collingwood at this stage are going to need points next year for Uwland Annable Addinsall and McGuane at a minimum and plenty of other Academy kids likely to be draftable. They are going to need to stock up on F2 and F3 picks this year.

GC in particular are going to need a lot of points. They are working to a different set of priorities to everyone else hence they are OK to ship pick 6 and more for Rioli this year. High end picks mean nothing more than how many points they can trade down for and Richmond somehow have ended up with a battery of third and fourth round picks this year to sweeten the Rioli deal and encourage GC to hand over 6 and more. Smart planning by them last year.

Not really sure how we take advantage of that but suspect our F2 and F3 are move valuable than usual and any deal that lands us F2 or F3 from someone else is equally more valuable this trade period

Ultimately I think once draft time comes around in 2025 there will be a similar number of top end talents in the open pool I think the selection for the U17 Futures game probably overstated the number of Northern Academy kids that will be in the top 40 or so of the draft and understated the number of Victorians in particular who will end up being top prospects.

We have two more windows 25 and 26 before Tassie comes in and the draft gets completely corrupted. I don't have much faith in our ability to actually land a big fish Free Agent we need to work the margins to increase our access to this draft and the next 2 beyond that.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Armoooo did you just listen to Matt Rosas interview?

He effectively said they can’t trade up because everyone wants to be at the top end of this draft and will need to trade down and out (admitting defeat about the entire Kako bluffing story you believe)

He also said they want 3-4 picks.

They have 3 including 9 and an ass end draft pick.

They want plenty don' they.

It would be quite the juggling act to get 4 picks in this draft as well as taking Kako.

They have ( around about ) 9,31, 86.
If Kako goes before 9, they would lose that pick.
If Kako goes after 9, they will lose 31 for sure.

Their best bet would probably be to split 9 for two later first round picks.
The first would probably be sacrificed for Kako, but then they'd still have a first and second round pick to use in the draft.
If they were to do a trade for the Saints 2nd plus future 1st, they would have a next year first rounder , but they would lose our traded pick to get Kako.

I don't want to trade 2 for 1.
It would be good to get a first rounder, but not at the expense of a first rounder AND a very good second round pick.

 

[CaptainRisky]

What??

I literally said if we want Trainor, we should split pick 9 (if we get it) and take him later. Read the comment again and don’t twist my words

Taking him at 9 vs 15/16 vs 62 are all completely different scenarios idk how you could remotely make that comparison

And in the post you quoted when did I actually say I wanted us to take him?

Craziest comment I’ve ever seen, clutching at straws and making things up to have a go at me

Pretty sure I read a post saying we should take him but I cant seem to find it now, maybe i got you mixed up with another draft guru on here
As for Craziest comment LOL You haven't been here long I can see by that comment, wait until the flamingo turns up then

 

[stavro#4]

They want plenty don' they.

It would be quite the juggling act to get 4 picks in this draft as well as taking Kako.

They have ( around about ) 9,31, 86.
If Kako goes before 9, they would lose that pick.
If Kako goes after 9, they will lose 31 for sure.

Their best bet would probably be to split 9 for two later first round picks.
The first would probably be sacrificed for Kako, but then they'd still have a first and second round pick to use in the draft.
If they were to do a trade for the Saints 2nd plus future 1st, they would have a next year first rounder , but they would lose our traded pick to get Kako.

I don't want to trade 2 for 1.
It would be good to get a first rounder, but not at the expense of a first rounder AND a very good second round pick.

I’m all for it.

But there is more to the value here for Essendon.

If we protect the Kako bid through our 3 picks. Then it’s worth a 3rd rounder to them in terms of points.

27 gets eaten. But their p31 only gets pushed back slightly.

Our future first will be more valuable then The Demons. We can be optimistic saint supporters. But Petracca is a star and they were around the top 4 before he got injured.

 

[ThomasR]

Armoooo did you just listen to Matt Rosas interview?

He effectively said they can’t trade up because everyone wants to be at the top end of this draft and will need to trade down and out (admitting defeat about the entire Kako bluffing story you believe)

He also said they want 3-4 picks.

They have 3 including 9 and an ass end draft pick.

IMO if there are bids at 5 or 6, Essendon will either need to take best offer of F1 + extras from any number of clubs, or simply match with 9 and protect their later picks.

If he gets through to us, we just offer them 8 for 9 + F2, conditional on who they pick at 8.

As stated in the interview they want picks in this draft just as much as everyone else & are glowing about the first round. The offer above gives them a decision between 8 + Kako + very late pick or Kako + 30 + Stringer pick, which should be fairly straightforward.

Free F2 maximises our leverage. F1 bidding war uses exactly none of it. Our bidding just helps other clubs access the pick.

If we still want a future first we should go after 11 or 13, pretty much the same thing once we've taken our top two prospects at 7+8. But we should be using our position with respect to 9 to get a future pick of our own in a draft where many clubs will be chasing points.

 

[HeavenlySources]

They want plenty don' they.

It would be quite the juggling act to get 4 picks in this draft as well as taking Kako.

They have ( around about ) 9,31, 86.
If Kako goes before 9, they would lose that pick.
If Kako goes after 9, they will lose 31 for sure.

Their best bet would probably be to split 9 for two later first round picks.
The first would probably be sacrificed for Kako, but then they'd still have a first and second round pick to use in the draft.
If they were to do a trade for the Saints 2nd plus future 1st, they would have a next year first rounder , but they would lose our traded pick to get Kako.

I don't want to trade 2 for 1.
It would be good to get a first rounder, but not at the expense of a first rounder AND a very good second round pick.

Any deal that is attractive enough for Essendon to take would mean that we give up something we would prefer to keep.

I think you aren’t considering that having 3 consecutive picks gives us so much ability to live trade and absorb extra picks in a similar fashion to the Darcy Wilson trade last year.

We could offer overs to get Pick 9 and then recoup some of that back by live trading back a spot.

Future 1st + Pick 27 for Pick 9

Pick 9 traded back a spot for a Future 2nd

We have effectively paid slightly over Future 1st in value to get Pick 9.

Thats a ripper deal.

 

[stavro#4]

IMO if there are bids at 5 or 6, Essendon will either need to take best offer of F1 + extras from any number of clubs, or simply match with 9 and protect their later picks.

If he gets through to us, we just offer them 8 for 9 + F2, conditional on who they pick at 8.

As stated in the interview they want picks in this draft just as much as everyone else & are glowing about the first round. The offer above gives them a decision between 8 + Kako + very late pick or Kako + 30 + Stringer pick, which should be fairly straightforward.

Free F2 maximises our leverage. F1 bidding war uses exactly none of it. Our bidding just helps other clubs access the pick.

If we still want a future first we should go after 11 or 13, pretty much the same thing once we've taken our top two prospects at 7+8. But we should be using our position with respect to 9 to get a future pick of our own in a draft where many clubs will be chasing points.

Yes, I’ve understood your position is to gain currency.

As reported though. We want that pick. So that is what is being discussed. Noticed how Rosa effectively ruled out trading ahead of the bid.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I’m all for it.

But there is more to the value here for Essendon.

If we protect the Kako bid through our 3 picks. Then it’s worth a 3rd rounder to them in terms of points.

27 gets eaten. But their p31 only gets pushed back slightly.

Our future first will be more valuable then The Demons. We can be optimistic saint supporters. But Petracca is a star and they were around the top 4 before he got injured.

You must be an Essendon supporter, 2 good picks and a favour in exchange for their one.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Any deal that is attractive enough for Essendon to take would mean that we give up something we would prefer to keep.

I think you aren’t considering that having 3 consecutive picks gives us so much ability to live trade and absorb extra picks in a similar fashion to the Darcy Wilson trade last year.

We could offer overs to get Pick 9 and then recoup some of that back by live trading back a spot.

Future 1st + Pick 27 for Pick 9

Pick 9 traded back a spot for a Future 2nd

We have effectively paid slightly over Future 1st in value to get Pick 9.

Thats a ripper deal.

We could but it might never happen.
Future 2nd unlikely to be worth as much as this years 2nd, which will have some pretty damn handy players available.

 

[HeavenlySources]

You must be an Essendon supporter, 2 good picks and a favour in exchange for their one.

An offer of a Future 1st alone just isn’t going to get it done it’s not realistic when Melbourne are in the market too.

Letting Essendon jump us is also not wise, at that stage we would have only taken 1 of our picks and allow them to take their pick for as little as a future 2nd?

Fair enough we can do that if we got 9 AFTER we take our 2 best prospects with 7 and 8. And extract value for our third pick.

 

[Joffaboy]

Armoooo did you just listen to Matt Rosas interview?

He effectively said they can’t trade up because everyone wants to be at the top end of this draft and will need to trade down and out (admitting defeat about the entire Kako bluffing story you believe)

He also said they want 3-4 picks.

They have 3 including 9 and an ass end draft pick.

Rosa will get a thread ban on the Essendon board for speaking sense

Everyone knows that Kako will be matched. Only posters on the Essendon board think otherwise.

 

[St Neil]

Geez. I don’t think he makes it to our pick now. That’s massive

Then another mid slides to us.

It sounds as if there is a case for all of Smith, FOS, Lalor, Langford, Smilie, Tauru and Draper to be in the top 5.

Twomey is now ruminating that Allan, Kako, Lombard and Armstrong are also potentially pushing into the top 8. He thinks the clubs with picks 1-4 are reluctant to slide back in the draft order because they may miss out on their targeted player but that this player is a reach at their current pick.

We are sitting with picks 7 & 8. There will be at least one and possibly two ripping mids who slide to us. I think the draft is going to throw up all sorts of surprises, especially with live trading.


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[HeavenlySources]

Then another mid slides to us.

It sounds as if there is a case for all of Smith, FOS, Lalor, Langford, Smilie, Tauru and Draper to be in the top 5.

Twomey is now ruminating that Allan, Kako, Lombard and Armstrong are also potentially pushing into the top 8. He thinks the clubs with picks 1-4 are reluctant to slide back in the draft order because they may miss out on their targeted player but that this player is a reach at their current pick.

We are sitting with picks 7 & 8. There will be at least one and possibly two ripping mids who slide to us. I think the draft is going to throw up all sorts of surprises, especially with live trading.


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Exactly - in Horse Racing terms we are one out one back in the slip stream, perfectly placed.

(5 & 6 or 6 & 7 would have been the stuff dreams are made of but Melbourne decided to capitulate against collingwood and Gold Coast couldn’t muster a 5 goal win against the wooden spooner)

 

[Armoooo]

You don’t have a great understanding of what I’m trying to explain - thus thinking I’m being myopic.

Carlton or Port will a) have a lower pick next year then 18/19/20 this year.

Isn't next year stacked with academy picks? If Port and Carlton are pushing for top 4, wouldn't there be a good chance that pick 15 or 16 could be pushed out after those picks?

There's a very good chance our pick next year will be lower than 10.

So why is it impossible that those clubs would take a risk of trading their future pick for what would be later than the 2024 pick they bring in?

You're dismissing this as a possibility while suggesting that St Kilda should not only do the same thing, but throw in a future second for the privilege.

You're all over the place. This years draft and everybody wants in, except Carlton and Port.

You're arguing that our first next year is disposable because this years draft is so much better. Our pick next year isn't worth as much because of academy bids next year, but other clubs future firsts are too valuable to be traded because they can trade them to academy clubs.

Conveniently, every clubs valuing of their assets seems to coincide with exactly what we need it to be for our future 1st and 27 being the best offer available to Essendon.

 

[HeavenlySources]

Isn't next year stacked with academy picks? If Port and Carlton are pushing for top 4, wouldn't there be a good chance that pick 15 or 16 could be pushed out after those picks?

There's a very good chance our pick next year will be lower than 10.

So why is it impossible that those clubs would take a risk of trading their future pick for what would be later than the 2024 pick they bring in?

You're dismissing this as a possibility while suggesting that St Kilda should not only do the same thing, but throw in a future second for the privilege.

You're all over the place. This years draft and everybody wants in, except Carlton and Port.

You're arguing that our first next year is disposable because this years draft is so much better. Our pick next year isn't worth as much because of academy bids next year, but other clubs future firsts are too valuable to be traded because they can trade them to academy clubs.

Conveniently, every clubs valuing of their assets seems to coincide with exactly what we need it to be for our future 1st and 27 being the best offer available to Essendon.

If you are Essendon and viewing your future 1st round pick swap offers. Out of Carlton, Port and St Kilda who’s pick do you think has the highest probability of being bottom 10?

 

[kyrgios]

If you are Essendon and viewing your future 1st round pick swap offers. Out of Carlton, Port and St Kilda who’s pick do you think has the highest probability of being bottom 10?

Carlton

 

[triggering bro]

Geez. I don’t think he makes it to our pick now. That’s massive

Twomey still doesn’t have him in the definites to go top 8. On TR he said Smith, Lalor, ROS, Langford and Draper are almost certain to go at the very top end. He didn’t mention Ashcroft but obviously he’s up there too. So, still a chance for Smillle to make it to our selections…