2024 Draft Thread.

[Mat Mann]

Draft Period, November 20–21

• Round 1 of the National Draft: Wednesday, November 20
• Round 2–end of the National Draft: Thursday, November 21
• Rookie Promotions: Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• Delisted Free Agency Period (3): Thursday, November 21, after the National Draft
• List Lodgement 3*: Friday, November 22, 10am (optional; required for those participating in the PSD)
• Pre-Season Draft: Friday, November 22, 3pm
• Rookie Draft: Friday, November 22, 3.20pm

 

[maanco]

Phantom Draft Trade scenario.

Trade drivers/goals.

• Richmond looking to trade into next year's draft and take 8 picks in this year's draft and select a balance of different players in different positions without drafting "bolters"
• North looking to take 3 top end players at this years draft, to complement there existing list of quality midfielders.
• Saints looking to draft some high end talent to complement the list, without reaching for talent (similar to North). Secondary factor is to enable bid matching of Hoffman and Cole with end of draft picks.

The below appears to be a fair and even 3 way trade that would suit all parties and allow them to meet their goals.


Trade
North - pick 2, 62, 80 and future 1st(valued at pick 9). For 7, 10 and 18
Richmond - 10, 11, 18, 20 and 79 for 2, 47 and 62 and North future first.
Saints - pick 7 and 47 for 11, 24, 79 and 80


Go to the draft
North - pick 7, 10, 18
Richmond - picks 1, 2, 6, 20, 23, 47, 62 and North F1
Saints - pick 8, pick 11 and 24, 32, Cole and Hoffman

Note: 79 and 80 will be used in bid matching of stk NGAs. These 2 picks fall to approx. pick ~63 and ~64 after bid matching of Ashcroft ect. and have a DVI to match 2 bids after pick ~50

 

[akaifu]

I read the rules. Hopefully I've interpreted it correctly and can show how we get Cole and Hofmann with one pick. Please correct me if I am wrong

Bids that come in the first round of the draft are matched with a 20% discount. This is highly unlikely for our boys

Bids that come beyond this point have a flat discount rate of 197 points. This is applied so that the discount for matching bids continues to increase up to the point where there is a 100% discount (which is at pick 56), at which point only a throwaway pick is required to take the player

In our context, a bid for Cole could come at any point between 30 to 50. If it comes at 30, then we'd need 629-197 = 432 points. Our pick 32 is worth 584. Therefore, we'd get another pick + Cole if we match the pick 30. If a bid comes at around 40, which seems more realistic, 429-197 = 232 points are required. Pick 47 is worth 316 points

I can't be bothered to figure out exactly where our picks will be after bids by the time bids for our NGA guys roll around, but we will get an extra pick in return for Cole's matching assuming pick 47 is involved (i think 47 will end up around pick 41 but haven't checked)

Therefore, since a bid for Hofmann is expected to come beyond pick 56, all we need is that throwaway pick to match him

In summary:
1. Cole gets bid on around pick 40
2. We match with pick 47
3. We get Cole + a late pick to make up for the excess points (hypothetically we get a pick in the 60s)
4. Hofmann gets bid on around pick 56
5. We match with the pick we got for Cole (this can literally be pick 100 and it'll still suffice)

 

[maanco]

Phantom Draft Trade scenario.

Trade drivers/goals.

• Richmond looking to trade into next year's draft and take 8 picks in this year's draft and select a balance of different players in different positions without drafting "bolters"
• North looking to take 3 top end players at this years draft, to complement there existing list of quality midfielders.
• Saints looking to draft some high end talent to complement the list, without reaching for talent (similar to North). Secondary factor is to enable bid matching of Hoffman and Cole with end of draft picks.

The below appears to be a fair and even 3 way trade that would suit all parties and allow them to meet their goals.


Trade
North - pick 2, 62, 80 and future 1st(valued at pick 9). For 7, 10 and 18
Richmond - 10, 11, 18, 20 and 79 for 2, 47 and 62 and North future first.
Saints - pick 7 and 47 for 11, 24, 79 and 80


Go to the draft
North - pick 7, 10, 18
Richmond - picks 1, 2, 6, 20, 23, 47, 62 and North F1
Saints - pick 8, pick 11 and 24, 32, Cole and Hoffman

Note: 79 and 80 will be used in bid matching of stk NGAs. These 2 picks fall to approx. pick ~63 and ~64 after bid matching of Ashcroft ect. and have a DVI to match 2 bids after pick ~50

Can someone send this to SoS and get it done.

 

[akaifu]

Phantom Draft Trade scenario.

Trade drivers/goals.

• Richmond looking to trade into next year's draft and take 8 picks in this year's draft and select a balance of different players in different positions without drafting "bolters"
• North looking to take 3 top end players at this years draft, to complement there existing list of quality midfielders.
• Saints looking to draft some high end talent to complement the list, without reaching for talent (similar to North). Secondary factor is to enable bid matching of Hoffman and Cole with end of draft picks.

The below appears to be a fair and even 3 way trade that would suit all parties and allow them to meet their goals.


Trade
North - pick 2, 62, 80 and future 1st(valued at pick 9). For 7, 10 and 18
Richmond - 10, 11, 18, 20 and 79 for 2, 47 and 62 and North future first.
Saints - pick 7 and 47 for 11, 24, 79 and 80


Go to the draft
North - pick 7, 10, 18
Richmond - picks 1, 2, 6, 20, 23, 47, 62 and North F1
Saints - pick 8, pick 11 and 24, 32, Cole and Hoffman

Note: 79 and 80 will be used in bid matching of stk NGAs. These 2 picks fall to approx. pick ~63 and ~64 after bid matching of Ashcroft ect. and have a DVI to match 2 bids after pick ~50

We'd never do that because it assumes Cole gets bid on after 50 which seems unlikely. If he is taken any earlier then we can't afford him

Pick 7 for Pick 11 and 24 is a scam given the way the top end could shape up if Richmond have pick 2. We need quality, not quantity

Richmond don't want to miss that 10-15 range so they won't do that either

Norf need to keep a late pick to potentially match River Stevens

 

[Browny2Carlisle]

Phantom Draft Trade scenario.

Trade drivers/goals.

• Richmond looking to trade into next year's draft and take 8 picks in this year's draft and select a balance of different players in different positions without drafting "bolters"
• North looking to take 3 top end players at this years draft, to complement there existing list of quality midfielders.
• Saints looking to draft some high end talent to complement the list, without reaching for talent (similar to North). Secondary factor is to enable bid matching of Hoffman and Cole with end of draft picks.

The below appears to be a fair and even 3 way trade that would suit all parties and allow them to meet their goals.


Trade
North - pick 2, 62, 80 and future 1st(valued at pick 9). For 7, 10 and 18
Richmond - 10, 11, 18, 20 and 79 for 2, 47 and 62 and North future first.
Saints - pick 7 and 47 for 11, 24, 79 and 80


Go to the draft
North - pick 7, 10, 18
Richmond - picks 1, 2, 6, 20, 23, 47, 62 and North F1
Saints - pick 8, pick 11 and 24, 32, Cole and Hoffman

Note: 79 and 80 will be used in bid matching of stk NGAs. These 2 picks fall to approx. pick ~63 and ~64 after bid matching of Ashcroft ect. and have a DVI to match 2 bids after pick ~50

ahh no thanks that’s awful

 

[Saints4ever]

Sliding from pick 7 to 11 just to get pick 24.
No thanks

 

[Saints43]

Can someone please save us from this messiah complex.

Lyon has failed to win every grand final his teams have played in. He had easily the best squad we've had in the last 20 years and he didn't deliver.

Good coach but not successful enough to justify the all in mentality that Bassat seems to have implemented.

Yes Ross No Ross is no way to run the show.

I don't think Ross pushed hard enough into our attacking weapons the first time around.
But he's a much more experienced coach now and I reckon when he's had a decent array of senior players on the park we've been pretty adventurous.
When taking about his historical results we also need to remember that he was working out of a condemned building.
With a better list he'll get better results.

After watching the three blokes that came after him, and getting older, I was ready for the board to chuck him the keys.

 

[maanco]

You need to have a read of the rules

Also, why in the world would we use a pick 45 on a 26 year old WAFL reserves ruckman in a deep draft?

If we take him, it'd be as a rookie, as has already been reported

If Geelong take him then so be it. There are PLENTY of other options

View attachment 2157218

Those rules aren't exactly correct, I believe it's only a 10% discount for NGA players. Discount fixed at 98 pts after pick 18.
(easy to get wrong with the way its all been reported)

 

[True Believer]

Phantom Draft Trade scenario.

Trade drivers/goals.

• Richmond looking to trade into next year's draft and take 8 picks in this year's draft and select a balance of different players in different positions without drafting "bolters"
• North looking to take 3 top end players at this years draft, to complement there existing list of quality midfielders.
• Saints looking to draft some high end talent to complement the list, without reaching for talent (similar to North). Secondary factor is to enable bid matching of Hoffman and Cole with end of draft picks.

The below appears to be a fair and even 3 way trade that would suit all parties and allow them to meet their goals.


Trade
North - pick 2, 62, 80 and future 1st(valued at pick 9). For 7, 10 and 18
Richmond - 10, 11, 18, 20 and 79 for 2, 47 and 62 and North future first.
Saints - pick 7 and 47 for 11, 24, 79 and 80


Go to the draft
North - pick 7, 10, 18
Richmond - picks 1, 2, 6, 20, 23, 47, 62 and North F1
Saints - pick 8, pick 11 and 24, 32, Cole and Hoffman

Note: 79 and 80 will be used in bid matching of stk NGAs. These 2 picks fall to approx. pick ~63 and ~64 after bid matching of Ashcroft ect. and have a DVI to match 2 bids after pick ~50

What are you, the North list manager?? That sucks for the Saints, gifts Richmond yet another club dropping to their knees to give them a personal "thank you" and lets North off the hook for the crappy position they put themselves in!

Because GCS and WCE are their own worst enemies Richmond now think everyone will bend over when they snap their fingers and they are getting greedy. Not content with picks 1, 6, 10, 11, 18, 20, 23 and 24 they now want to get pick 2, but not give up anything before pick 11 for it!!

And North have received so many freebies in recent times that they get around like a drunk girl on prom night with their legs in the air. The only problem is that the next morning they've woken up and realise they need to draft 4 players, and after throwing picks around like confetti at a wedding they only have pick 2 and pick 187 !!

Bugger them! We've put forward what looks like the best deal they're going to be offered at this point, take it or live with the consequences of your poor decisions.

 

[akaifu]

Those rules aren't exactly correct, I believe it's only a 10% discount for NGA players. Discount fixed at 98 pts after pick 18.
(easy to get wrong with the way its all been reported)

Source?

 

[Miha]

No more shenanigans please. Just take 7&8 to the draft. Add the NGAs and Elwood. Our midfield is stacked, we have a great rookie in Crouch.

 

[Ads734]

Yes it can give a somewhat false impression of a player..Coffield a classic example, ran a rapid 2.92 second 20 metre sprint but never showed it on the field

The 20 metre record holder …. Joel Wilkinson

 

[maanco]

We'd never do that because it assumes Cole gets bid on after 50 which seems unlikely. If he is taken any earlier then we can't afford him

Pick 7 for Pick 11 and 24 is a scam given the way the top end could shape up if Richmond have pick 2. We need quality, not quantity

Richmond don't want to miss that 10-15 range so they won't do that either

Norf need to keep a late pick to potentially match River Steven

A bid at Pick 39 will consume picks 79, 80 and 85 (valued at pick ~64, ~65, ~68)


If a bid comes in earlier than pick 39, then we will go into deficit.
For example, Cole is bid on at pick 33 after our pick 32, our 2025 2nd round draft pick will slide to pick ~48.


If a bid happens earlier than 38, St Kilda will do a future trade to bring in more points. i.e. Trade out Future 4th rounder for a Pick that won't be used at this year's draft by a club. In addition, our pick 103 will grow in value and be worth approx. pick ~70

Or SoS makes a quick trade to bring in pick and it's all hunky-dory.

I wouldn't worry about bids there are lots of ways around it and SoS and the St Kilda List Management Team will have all scenarios covered.

Edit: to adjust calculations on 20% discount instead of 10%

 

[Ads734]

I

Can someone please save us from this messiah complex.

Lyon has failed to win every grand final his teams have played in. He had easily the best squad we've had in the last 20 years and he didn't deliver.

Good coach but not successful enough to justify the all in mentality that Bassat seems to have implemented.

Yes Ross No Ross is no way to run the show.

think when you lose the two grand finals we lost especially the Collingwood one , by such a close margin it’s so marginal that ‘coaching’ at that point has nothing to do with it. Essentially it’s luck.

 

[Winmar2Lockett]

Can someone please save us from this messiah complex.

Lyon has failed to win every grand final his teams have played in. He had easily the best squad we've had in the last 20 years and he didn't deliver.

Good coach but not successful enough to justify the all in mentality that Bassat seems to have implemented.

Yes Ross No Ross is no way to run the show.

FFS


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mangus]

Those rules aren't exactly correct, I believe it's only a 10% discount for NGA players. Discount fixed at 98 pts after pick 18.
(easy to get wrong with the way its all been reported)

No that comes in next year normal 20% and 197 discounts apply this year

akaifu’s outline below is on the money at most we burn pick 47 if the bid is early for Cole but more likely the bids don’t come we see it every year NGA’s and F/S slip down the order and frankly our guys are probably only discussed because they are NGA’s. Dodoro is gone so that one campaigner not to worry about. Bottom line if no bid on either before 55 then they come free. The maths gets too hard when you have picks being created and then disappearing as the bids come for Ashcroft etc. But basically 47 will come in a few spots to around 41ish 32 will drift out a bit to 35ish so our 2 picks will end up very close to each other. Club will be hopping we get to use both before a bid and I think we will. If we at worst end up with a points deficit it will be very small and only drop our 3rd round pick back a few slots.

I read the rules. Hopefully I've interpreted it correctly and can show how we get Cole and Hofmann with one pick. Please correct me if I am wrong

Bids that come in the first round of the draft are matched with a 20% discount. This is highly unlikely for our boys

Bids that come beyond this point have a flat discount rate of 197 points. This is applied so that the discount for matching bids continues to increase up to the point where there is a 100% discount (which is at pick 56), at which point only a throwaway pick is required to take the player

In our context, a bid for Cole could come at any point between 30 to 50. If it comes at 30, then we'd need 629-197 = 432 points. Our pick 32 is worth 584. Therefore, we'd get another pick + Cole if we match the pick 30. If a bid comes at around 40, which seems more realistic, 429-197 = 232 points are required. Pick 47 is worth 316 points

I can't be bothered to figure out exactly where our picks will be after bids by the time bids for our NGA guys roll around, but we will get an extra pick in return for Cole's matching assuming pick 47 is involved (i think 47 will end up around pick 41 but haven't checked)

Therefore, since a bid for Hofmann is expected to come beyond pick 56, all we need is that throwaway pick to match him

In summary:
1. Cole gets bid on around pick 40
2. We match with pick 47
3. We get Cole + a late pick to make up for the excess points (hypothetically we get a pick in the 60s)
4. Hofmann gets bid on around pick 56
5. We match with the pick we got for Cole (this can literally be pick 100 and it'll still suffice)
View attachment 2157245

 

[StFly]

Source?

AFL player movement and list management changes

The AFL Commission has approved changes related to AFL Player Movement and List Management for 2024 and 2025

www.afl.com.au

Note the 2025 changes section as where we got Hall was considered part of the 2024 draft, so the 10% change is slated for 2025 in the above. (Hall has the added Rookies instance for this years changes)

Bit "confusing" in how they state it, but the tldr is;

• Removal of points from rnd 4+ picks (207-9pt)
• Change in DVI (draft value index) for -10% discount P1-18, -84pt P19-36, next pick otherwise.
• Can trade up to 2 years picks must use 2 first rounds in 4 years, clubs doing trade must hold full suite of rnds 2,3 if trading a 1st.

 

[SteeleSaints]

Coach says Cole is 197

I note Rob Harding quoted Cole at 197cm which is a nice size, plus said he was a late starter to AFL playing soccer and has only been playing AFL for a few years. If Cole didnt have those bandy legs he would be 205 cms tall. Harding also said that he expected both Cole and Hofmann to be bid on which will make things interesting.

In the earlier video re Trainor, Harding said he is now at 196cms tall, but sees him as an intercept rebounding player rather than a key defender.

 

[OxSaint]

If Cole is bid on in the 30-40 range will we even take him?

 

[Desperate saint]

He didn't deliver?

How much weight do you put on Lyon & the coaches getting that squad to the 09/10 GFs, and how much do you put on the players?

Once we were in, how much of what happened during both games do you put on Lyon & the coaches, and how much do you put on the players?

Pretty sure Lyon wasnt responsible for the easy shots missed in the 1st half of 2009 GF- should have shut the gate .

 

[SteeleSaints]

If Cole is bid on in the 30-40 range will we even take him?

I wonder if a bid for Hofmann comes before Cole, but it will depend on when the bid comes? Before our pick #32 if we rate and prioritise other players maybe not, but after I think they will be taken. With the 20% discount pick #35 is equivalent to #41 in points. Hopefully we dont have that problem and take 3 x live picks plus the 2 x NGA's.

 

[akaifu]

If Cole is bid on in the 30-40 range will we even take him?

If its before our pick 32 and Mraz or O'Farrell are still available then I highly doubt it

If its after pick 32 then yes, I don't see why we wouldn't

 

[stavro#4]

Held onto this little interaction for a few days.

Ex Gippsland power player. Both his sons in their younger age groups.

 

[MOLTEN GANGLANDS]

Held onto this little interaction for a few days.

Ex Gippsland power player. Both his sons in their younger age groups.

who?

 

[stavro#4]

who?

Tauru