List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading Part 2

[Vader]

Vader - given the state of our list, we can’t let Welsh slide as a rookie can we?

As I understand from your previous posts, we need 3 selections at the ND. Keane upgrade counts for one, pick 4 the second - but from my quick squizz at the rules, taking someone in the Rookie Draft doesn’t count (quite logically if we are talking changes to the primary list).

So even if it looks like he would slide to the Rookie List, we must take Welsh in the ND to make our minimum selections (unless we upgrade another rookie along with Keane)?

It is possible. If we were to upgrade 2 rookies (Keane & Borlase), and downgrade 2 senior players to the rookie list, we would end up with a 37+3 list structure. This would allow us to use pick #4 as our ONLY selection in the ND, with the 2 rookie upgrades counting as the other mandatory list changes.

We would then be able to pre-list Welsh ahead of the RD, if he doesn't get picked up in the ND or PSD, as we did with Jarman & Edwards in the past.

All other considerations (i.e. the mechanics of moving players from the senior list to the rookie list) remain unchanged.

You are correct that rookie selections do NOT count towards the AFL's mandatory 3 ND selections. However, upgrading 2 rookies gets around this problem.

I don't think it's likely. I don't see them wishing to upgrade Borlase to the senior list. However, it is possible.

 

[Danger in Texas]

I'm generally pretty critical of the club, but this has been a genuinely good off season.

A+ would have been not extending Smith and trading Berry, which would mean 2 more draftees.

110%. A young ruck and a pacy small forward in place of those two would have made it pretty much perfect

 

[Rags_118]

He'd create some headlines..... probably more negative than positive mind you

So, with the Peatling trade in we will have 37/38 Main List spots and 3/4 of the Rookie-A List spots filled with contracted players.

We need 3 open list sports for the National Draft, hence 2 contracted players need to be de-listed, presumably on the promise we’ll pick them up again in the Rookie Draft.

Then we will have Pick 4, Welsh and a Rookie upgrade (Keane) for 38.

Who joins, T Murray and Borlaise on the Rookie List? Burgess & one of Strachan, Smith, Murphy or Schoenberg?

 

[Vader]

Who joins, T Murray and Borlaise on the Rookie List? Burgess & one of Strachan, Smith, Murphy or Schoenberg?

Unlikely to be Strachan or Murphy, so 2 of Burgess/Smith/Schoenberg would be my guess.

 

[ams4crows]

So if a bid never comes for Welsh do we just select Welsh with pick 64? If we think he'll make it through to the rookie draft would we select a different player?

 

[Nicks_out_now]

Can someone please help me out. And I’m sorry if this had become discombobulated.

Where do we sit with list management numbers right now?

Hamill, McHenry, Sloane, Himmelberg, Gollant, Parnell are off the list

We have pick 4 and 64 in the 2024 AFL draft.

Pick 4: Sid Draper (hopefully)
Pick 64: Tyler Welsh (father son bid)

(33) Primary Listed players (34) with Mark Keane getting upgraded.
(4) Mark Keane, Kieran Strachan, Toby Murray, James Borlase,
(1) Karl Gallagher is a category B player

*Mark Keane is rumoured to be getting upgraded.

That should be 38 players

How many main list players do we have (I think 38), and how many are we allowed to have?

Same with rookie list.

If someone could help me out, I would be extremely grateful.

 

[Vader]

So if a bid never comes for Welsh do we just select Welsh with pick 64? If we think he'll make it through to the rookie draft would we select a different player?

That depends on how many rookies we choose to upgrade, given that rookie upgrade nominations need to take place no later than 31st October.

If we only nominate 1 rookie for upgrading, then we'd have to take him with pick 64. We won't have any rookie list vacancies, so we'd need to grab him in the ND. However, we could try to trade out of pick 64, if there were any buyers, knowing that we'd still be able to match any bids anyway. I think the odds of anyone being interested in trading for 64 is unlikely, so we'd probably end up grabbing him at that point anyway.

If we nominate 2 rookies for upgrading, then we won't have any senior list vacancies anyway - so we couldn't match a bid, even if we wanted to. Essentially, nominating 2 rookies is a gamble that nobody else will pick him in the ND or PSD. However, if he does make it through the ND & PSD, then he's definitely ours - and there's no need to worry about anyone gazumping us in the RD.

 

[Vader]

Can someone please help me out. And I’m sorry if this had become discombobulated.

Where do we sit with list management numbers right now?

Hamill, McHenry, Sloane, Himmelberg, Gollant, Parnell are off the list

We have pick 4 and 64 in the 2024 AFL draft.

Pick 4: Sid Draper (hopefully)
Pick 64: Tyler Welsh (father son bid)

(33) Primary Listed players (34) with Mark Keane getting upgraded.
(4) Mark Keane, Kieran Strachan, Toby Murray, James Borlase,
(1) Karl Gallagher is a category B player

*Mark Keane is rumoured to be getting upgraded.

That should be 38 players

How many main list players do we have (I think 38), and how many are we allowed to have?

Same with rookie list.

If someone could help me out, I would be extremely grateful.

Right now, we have 36 players on our senior list, 3 on the Cat A rookie list, and 1 on the Cat B rookie list.

Peatling will make it 37 on the senior list, as soon as the trade paperwork is lodged.

Maximum list structures allowable are:

• 38 (senior) +4 (Cat A rookie) + 2 (Cat B rookie)
• 37+5+2
• 36+6+2

Regardless of how they're distributed, it's a maximum of 42 players across the senior + Cat A rookie lists. Cat B rookies are extra, in addition to the 42.

 

[Nicks_out_now]

Right now, we have 36 players on our senior list, 3 on the Cat A rookie list, and 1 on the Cat B rookie list.

Peatling will make it 37 on the senior list, as soon as the trade paperwork is lodged.

Maximum list structures allowable are:

• 38 (senior) +4 (Cat A rookie) + 2 (Cat B rookie)
• 37+5+2
• 36+6+2

Regardless of how they're distributed, it's a maximum of 42 players across the senior + Cat A rookie lists. Cat B rookies are extra, in addition to the 42.

Thank you for this. Appreciate your time.


Do we have room on the rookie list to demote someone if we wanted to take a 3rd player in this year’s draft?

 

[Bob Neil]

We'll find out the final list numbers on Wed 13th November.

I have little doubt that pick #82 will start off earlier than that (probably around #70) at the start of the draft, drifting in further as picks are burned off for points (and moved to the back of the draft). My guess is that 64 will probably end up around 55, and 82 will probably end up around 60. Obviously this is pure speculation at this stage, but the numbers are reasonable based on historic draft outcomes.

Thanks Vader.

Given that this movement of picks (i.e. #82 moving up) will be happening in real time on draft night do you know at what exact point in time our picks' ultimate value (if any) is determined?

For instance if a bid for Welsh comes at (say) pick 50 by which time our original picks (64 & 82) have now come in a bit (to say 55 and 65) is that the point at which we have to calculate the necessary points match? The point being that our second pick (at that point 65) may hypothetically come in even further and could end up being (say) pick 60 by the completion of the draft which is worth slightly more points.

Do you know how it actually works?

 

[Vader]

Thank you for this. Appreciate your time.

Do we have room on the rookie list to demote someone if we wanted to take a 3rd player in this year’s draft?

At this point we have 2 options available to us (plus 2 variations), depending on where they see Welsh being drafted.

Option 1 - Match Welsh bid in ND
This requires us to upgrade 1 rookie (probably Keane) and move 2 players from the senior list to the rookie list (probably 2 of Schoenberg/Smith/Burgess). This will leave us with a 36+4 list structure going into the ND. We would then make a "live" selection with pick #4. We would then use pick 64 + 82 to match any bid on Welsh, or just take him at 64 if no bid eventuates.

Option 2 - Take Welsh in RD
This requires us to upgrade 2 rookies (probably Keane & Borlase) and move 2 players from the senior list to the rookie list. This would leave us with a 37+3 list structure going into the drafts. We would be unable to match any ND bids on Welsh, but would be able to pre-list him if he makes it through the ND & PSD unscathed. They wouldn't do this unless they were VERY confident that Welsh would not be selected in the ND/PSD.

Variation A - Changing to a 37+5 List Structure
This requires moving an extra player from the senior list to the rookie list (in addition to the previously identified list changes). The only benefit is that it gains us a little bit of extra money in the 2025 salary cap. Highly unlikely to happen.

Variation B - Changing to a 36+6 List Structure
This requires moving 2 extra players from the senior list to the rookie list (in addition to the previously identified list changes). The only benefit is that it gains us a little bit of extra money in the 2025 salary cap. Extremely unlikely to happen.

However, to answer your question...

Making a 3rd Live Selection in the ND/PSD/RD
The only way that this can happen is if a contracted player is traded or delisted (in addition to those being delisted as part of the process of moving them from the senior list to the rookie list). Silvers has stated that they are not expecting this to happen.

 

[Nicks_out_now]

At this point we have 2 options available to us (plus 2 variations), depending on where they see Welsh being drafted.

Option 1 - Match Welsh bid in ND
This requires us to upgrade 1 rookie (probably Keane) and move 2 players from the senior list to the rookie list (probably 2 of Schoenberg/Smith/Burgess). This will leave us with a 36+4 list structure going into the ND. We would then make a "live" selection with pick #4. We would then use pick 64 + 82 to match any bid on Welsh, or just take him at 64 if no bid eventuates.

Option 2 - Take Welsh in RD
This requires us to upgrade 2 rookies (probably Keane & Borlase) and move 2 players from the senior list to the rookie list. This would leave us with a 37+3 list structure going into the drafts. We would be unable to match any ND bids on Welsh, but would be able to pre-list him if he makes it through the ND & PSD unscathed. They wouldn't do this unless they were VERY confident that Welsh would not be selected in the ND/PSD.

Variation A - Changing to a 37+5 List Structure
This requires moving an extra player from the senior list to the rookie list (in addition to the previously identified list changes). The only benefit is that it gains us a little bit of extra money in the 2025 salary cap. Highly unlikely to happen.

Variation B - Changing to a 36+6 List Structure
This requires moving 2 extra players from the senior list to the rookie list (in addition to the previously identified list changes). The only benefit is that it gains us a little bit of extra money in the 2025 salary cap. Extremely unlikely to happen.

However, to answer your question...

Making a 3rd Live Selection in the ND/PSD/RD
The only way that this can happen is if a contracted player is traded or delisted (in addition to those being delisted as part of the process of moving them from the senior list to the rookie list). Silvers has stated that they are not expecting this to happen.

I hope I have understood your points, and really appreciate you spending your time explaining it to me.

So, regardless of what happens we have to move 2 players to the rookie list before the national draft?

Is that correct?

 

[Vader]

Thanks Vader.

Given that this movement of picks (i.e. #82 moving up) will be happening in real time on draft night do you know at what exact point in time our picks' ultimate value (if any) is determined?

For instance if a bid for Welsh comes at (say) pick 50 by which time our original picks (64 & 82) have now come in a bit (to say 55 and 65) is that the point at which we have to calculate the necessary points match? The point being that our second pick (at that point 65) may hypothetically come in even further and could end up being (say) pick 60 by the completion of the draft which is worth slightly more points.

Do you know how it actually works?

The answer is... it's complicated.

Picks 64 & 82 may actually start slightly lower than that, depending on how many list vacancies the other clubs have. Last year's draft only had 64 selections in total, and the average over the last 5 years is around 62-63.

Then there's the results of bid matching. If a team uses 3x picks in the 30s & 40s to match an earlier bid, one of those picks moves up, one moves to the back of the draft, and the other moves backwards (possibly all the way to the back of the draft). The net effect on our late picks is that they move forwards by 1-2 positions.

The final List Lodgement before the draft is on Wed 13th November. We won't know until that date how many list vacancies exist across the league, and thus how many draft picks will actually be used in the ND/PSD/RD.

My best guess, and it's only a guess (based on historic AFL draft movements) is that pick 64 will probably end up around pick 50, and pick 84 will probably end up around pick 60. It's impossible to say with any certainty, so take those numbers with a grain of salt. They are just my guesstimates.

 

[Crow till I die]

At this point we have 2 options available to us (plus 2 variations), depending on where they see Welsh being drafted.

Option 1 - Match Welsh bid in ND
This requires us to upgrade 1 rookie (probably Keane) and move 2 players from the senior list to the rookie list (probably 2 of Schoenberg/Smith/Burgess). This will leave us with a 36+4 list structure going into the ND. We would then make a "live" selection with pick #4. We would then use pick 64 + 82 to match any bid on Welsh, or just take him at 64 if no bid eventuates.

Option 2 - Take Welsh in RD
This requires us to upgrade 2 rookies (probably Keane & Borlase) and move 2 players from the senior list to the rookie list. This would leave us with a 37+3 list structure going into the drafts. We would be unable to match any ND bids on Welsh, but would be able to pre-list him if he makes it through the ND & PSD unscathed. They wouldn't do this unless they were VERY confident that Welsh would not be selected in the ND/PSD.

Variation A - Changing to a 37+5 List Structure
This requires moving an extra player from the senior list to the rookie list (in addition to the previously identified list changes). The only benefit is that it gains us a little bit of extra money in the 2025 salary cap. Highly unlikely to happen.

Variation B - Changing to a 36+6 List Structure
This requires moving 2 extra players from the senior list to the rookie list (in addition to the previously identified list changes). The only benefit is that it gains us a little bit of extra money in the 2025 salary cap. Extremely unlikely to happen.

However, to answer your question...

Making a 3rd Live Selection in the ND/PSD/RD
The only way that this can happen is if a contracted player is traded or delisted (in addition to those being delisted as part of the process of moving them from the senior list to the rookie list). Silvers has stated that they are not expecting this to happen.

Or Option 3, we don't bid on Welsh at all? and take someone else instead late in the draft (A project ruck?). Unlikely as i think we are committed to Welsh

 

[Vader]

I hope I have understood your points, and really appreciate you spending your time explaining it to me.

So, regardless of what happens we have to move 2 players to the rookie list before the national draft?

Is that correct?

That is correct.

At an absolute minimum, we need to upgrade 1 rookie and move 2 players from the senior list to the rookie list.

Rookie upgrade nominations need to be lodged no later than 31st October, and occur at the conclusion of the ND on 22nd November.

The process of moving players from the senior list to the rookie list requires them to be delisted by October 31st, and then re-drafted in the RD.

 

[Vader]

Or Option 3, we don't bid on Welsh at all? and take someone else instead late in the draft (A project ruck?). Unlikely as i think we are committed to Welsh

Theoretically possible, but I agree with you - unlikely.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Or Option 3, we don't bid on Welsh at all? and take someone else instead late in the draft (A project ruck?). Unlikely as i think we are committed to Welsh

Yeah I think the moment we got Welsh to play for our SANFL side, he was a guaranteed Crow

 

[crows dude]

Or Option 3, we don't bid on Welsh at all? and take someone else instead late in the draft (A project ruck?). Unlikely as i think we are committed to Welsh

We dont bid. The other teams bid and we match or dont match. If no team bids on him in the main draft he is ours automatically in the rookie draft as long as we have put him down for both. Like what happend with Jarman and Edwards.

 

[Nicks_out_now]

That is correct.

At an absolute minimum, we need to upgrade 1 rookie and move 2 players from the senior list to the rookie list.

Rookie upgrade nominations need to be lodged no later than 31st October, and occur at the conclusion of the ND on 22nd November.

The process of moving players from the senior list to the rookie list requires them to be delisted by October 31st, and then re-drafted in the RD.

Thank you Vader.

 

[Vader]

We dont bid. The other teams bid and we match or dont match. If no team bids on him in the main draft he is ours automatically in the rookie draft as long as we have put him down for both. Like what happend with Jarman and Edwards.

Not quite accurate, given the list mathematics.

• If we only upgrade 1 rookie, then we will have no rookie list vacancies, so we have to take him in the ND.
• If we upgrade 2 rookies, then we won't have any senior list vacancies (after making a selection at pick #4), so we have to hope that he makes it through the ND & PSD, after which we pre-list him on our rookie list, as we did with Jarman & Edwards.

 

[blighty]

Just a couple of random thoughts ?

There has been lots of talk here in the past regarding Neil Balme
being offered a Director of Football role at the AFC.
Balme is reported to be recuperating from recent heart surgery and
unable to consider any future position. He is 72 & was looking for a parttime
role as a consultant.

Have we considered Malcolm Blight in a similar role? He enjoys great health & going by his media work still has great insight to the game. His experience in football would surpass anyone currently in the AFL. He would be a great asset to the board, coaches & players as a mentor as well as advice on strategy & game style. He is 74, plays golf three days a week & retains a passion for the game. The role could be as a consultant with responsibility at Board level in an official capacity or simply an ad hoc short term consultancy role with oversight of the football department player development etc. We are wasting a valuable resource by not asking him his interest. He had a similar role with Gold Coast for 3 years.

Another point. I think we should develop Curtin as a 3rd tall forward & as part of his development; let him study the running patterns & positioning of players such as Jeremy Cameron

5

Jeremy Cameron

Age

31

Ht

196cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.5

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.4

3star

M

5.4

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

2.6

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

7.1

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.0

3star

G

1.9

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.4

4star

G

2.0

5star

& Marcus Bontempelli

4

Marcus Bontempelli

Age

29

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.5

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

10.3

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

18.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

1.8

4star

(when he plays forward). As the 3rd tall he gets the weakest defender in the opposition. GWS are developing Cadman in a similar manner. Curtin’s height aerial prowess & strength would be significant assets in this part of the ground.

 

[Crow till I die]

 

[GreyCrow]

Just a couple of random thoughts ?

There has been lots of talk here in the past regarding Neil Balme
being offered a Director of Football role at the AFC.
Balme is reported to be recuperating from recent heart surgery and
unable to consider any future position. He is 72 & was looking for a parttime
role as a consultant.

I for one would still ask him to run his eye over the club in any timely fashion he chooses

Have we considered Malcolm Blight in a similar role?

I like Malcolm and he will forever hold a special place in my heart.

But as a club I would filter his suggestions through the Batshit detector first

Though he would - I hope - be currently aligned with my '' we didnt do enough to cull the list '' thinking so ehh

Another point. I think we should develop Curtin as a 3rd tall forward & as part of his development; let him study the running patterns & positioning of players such as Jeremy Cameron & Marcus Bontempelli (when he plays forward). As the 3rd tall he gets the weakest defender in the opposition. GWS are developing Cadman in a similar manner. Curtin’s height aerial prowess & strength would be significant assets in this part of the ground.

Ehh. Maybe. I would think a wing role would be more his role next year

 

[crows dude]

Umm

N/A, N/a Ryan, Murray T, Edwards, Curtin

 

[Crow till I die]

Umm

N/A, N/a Ryan, Murray T, Edwards, Curtin

Welsh & Dowling