You're probably right - I'd say about 80% ND vs 20% RD at this stage. I wouldn't entirely rule out the possibility of upgrading 2 rookies. They're almost certainly not paying players out.
I get that forwards don't need to run midfielder-level times in the 2 km time trial, but 3 weeks is a slow 2 km time in anyone's books (only a slight exaggeration).
I doubt he'd last to the RD and we're all but certain to take him in the ND.