Strategy 2024 Midprice Madness

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Thoughts on Cam Guthrie, rockdaddy?


I'm hoping he goes 105sc

After I had him last year I'm ready to stadle up again.



2020 103
2021 113
2022...99

Curacao Rescue Dog GIF by Pippi's opvang
 
I'm hoping he goes 105sc

After I had him last year I'm ready to stadle up again.



2020 103
2021 113
2022...99

Curacao Rescue Dog GIF by Pippi's opvang's opvang

I currently have him at M6
 
I'm hoping he goes 105sc

After I had him last year I'm ready to stadle up again.



2020 103
2021 113
2022...99

Curacao Rescue Dog GIF by Pippi's opvang's opvang
I'm hoping to hold him until his bye then flick him to a Gulden type coming off their bye, effectively giving me an M5/6 that doesn't have a bye at all, I'll be doing the same with Crouch too. Can't do it too many times as I'll still be upgrading.
 

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I currently have 7 Genine Midpricers in my team if even 2 of them ended up keepers I would be happy. With 40 trades I think starting a team like could work especially as there is 11 premos as well.


33.JPG
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Budarick:
So might be being groomed to play a HB role?
Understand why he's been mentioned a bit now.
Was he a good kick? Can't recall tbh.

300k and been ages since he played WTF.
Joel Hamling been inj for 3 years still 270k...crazy ...
 
If you were to sacrifice one line this season which would it be??

Note: I have posted this in SC-strategy board also, just wanted to do some ‘Devil’s Advocate’ strategy/ideas here and see what the brain’s trust thinks.
Hopefully putting this here doesn’t get my membership to
Mid-Priced-Madness revoked or banned.
I am waiting for my mid-pricer team to be processed through the AI model, but it currently says I need $14mil, 55 trades and 10 boosts, so back to pen and paper ideas for now.


This is going to be a long one, which for me is the usual on strategy, so I thought better get it out of the system now rather than later.

Grab a drink and some snacks.

Let me clarify. Or just ramble on for a bit.

We have a few classes of players from top to bottom.

Premo’s

1. Proven Premiums or Uber Premo’s.
2. Premiums
3. Fallen Premiums - or Undervalued.
(These 3 are our finished sides targets as the season goes.)

MP’s
4. Top Priced Mid-pricers
5. Mid-pricers
(These two categories ( 4 & 5) are either guys we hope or think could make the next step up or break into Premo territory via player exits, traded to new club or role and position change. Also we are rolling the dice that they might become keepers at last 1 or 2 on-field spots in Def, Mid, Fwds)

Then we have
6. Bottom Priced Mid-pricers
(At less then say $300k as a price point but have played Senior footy before)

That leaves Rookies
7. Top Priced Rookies & Others
($210k to $150k)
8. Rookies - Senior Listed Players
($117k to 150k)
And lastly
9. Rookie Listed Players

($102.4k players not on Senior Lists yet)
Or this is the categories I work with to break it down.
Each season the price points for each category shift up or down a bit.

Though this seasons starting prices have caught me and I guess others off guard and surprised, as getting more than 2 of the Proven Uber Premiums in each line is nearly impossible without some serious sacrifices.

Add to this for the first time in my memory, having played since 2014 ( I thought longer though that is all history shows) the utter lack of many, if any locked in Forward line picks that scream out as must haves from the start.

All of the top 14 Forward priced players feel like Fallen or Falling Premiums with maybe 1 or 2 who had breakouts last year and I doubt many if any will rise beyond $600k, more likely to be the $500k club or below, which will make them the easiest line to trade into as the season goes on. Also easier to wait until 1st and 2nd DPP changes (Rounds 6&12) come in for upgrade targets and hold until better options come up or we see what numbers the current flock of Forwards are putting up.

Secondly each year I like to go through and rank each position in importance by the usual key factors, nothing new to most seasoned players.

This year I came up with this.
  1. Rucks (as there is only 2 on-field and can mean 50 to 100pt round difference between the right 2 and the rest)
  2. Midfield (no need to explain this)
  3. Defenders (more value per $$ for points here)
Note: This season seems to have switched Defenders with the Forwards from last season as the place where DPP Midfield options and additions may come from. Maybe a few Midfielders and Rucks can boost the stock of Forwards after DPP changes.

4. Forwards (apart from a few Fallen Premo’s mentioned earlier, there is little on offer, maybe a few Mid-pricers or Rookies will rise up and surprise us all.)


By now your wondering what on earth is this guy rambling on about and what does it have to do with sacrificing one certain line versus the others, will he get to the point.


I have tried a few different combos of team structure trying to find balance across all lines and none of them come without major sacrifices. Either too many risky Mid-Pricers or Fallen Premo’s to rely on, like shopping at Woolworths or Coles the money just doesn’t go as far as it used to. Now SuperCoach has gone down the price gouging route, nothing has gone ‘Down Down’ here.


Even with the byes and extra trades as well as boosts I don’t want to run out of trades like I did last season at Round 17 and fall 20k spots while I was on a steady climb up the ranks. Too many injuries and sideways/fix-up trades.

Again rambling.


Back to the point.

I am thinking about going full sacrifice on one line, “The Forwards!”.

Fielding nothing but Rookies!

Most with F/M DPP and having a few M/F running in the Midfield as backup.



Reasons apart from those alluded to already.

Midfield - upgrades take 2.5 to 3 trades for each on-field Uber Premium @ $650k+

Defenders - upgrades 2 to 2.5 trades apart from the top 3 or 4.

Rucks - Start with the best and sideways to the rest.

Forwards - I think can be had with just 2 trades, one up - one down.

So sacrifice the easiest to upgrade line and even worse make it the last line to go full (really just semi) Premium.


With 8 of my 19 total rookies out of the 30 players selected in the Forward line and 2 more DPP’s hiding in the Midfield.


I will surf the Break Even wave hard and fast, maybe shorting stocks if timing is right.


Also choosing only 11 Uber Premiums and 19 rookies increases the luck or chance of getting maybe 2 or 3 Sheezel type rookies, to hold onto as long as needed.

Though it does increase risk in getting the rookies right from the start, with all 19 of them generating cash.. The toughest part of the game.

Let’s not forget about best 18 for rounds 2,3,5 and 6.. rounds 5&6 may be a chance for first upgrades, perfect ‘Cash Cow Culling Time’ at least to a stepping stone to a rising Mid-Pricer with a low Break Even. Making the risk in fielding more rookies less volatile to overall points in these rounds. Worst case is a small loss to true Mid-Pricer teams who get lucky with their 18 non-rookies on-field. Also plan on only Starting with currently one Round ‘0’ or ‘OR (Opening Round)’ Premium player.



Breakdown of trades needed to upgrade my planned team’s on-field lines.

Defenders - 5 Trades max- 2 Rookies
Mids- 9 trades max - 3 Rookies
Rucks - Set and Forget.
Fwds - 12 trades - 6 Rookies

Sub Total - 26 out of 40 trades


Plan to use or save two boosts for use in bye rounds 14&15 so add another 6-8 trades. Try and get 18 Premo’s running each of these rounds.

Grand Total Max Trades = 34max + fix up trades.

Leaving 6 (hopefully a few more) for injuries and sideways if needed. Maybe I will have some to use after Round 17 this year!

I have tried many different recipes for the right SuperCoach marinades over the years and none have worked out as I had hoped. So time to try something completely different and new.



Lastly
More starting team Captain Options.



See you all in month with another
hare-brained scheme. And maybe a bit of show and tell.
 
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Personally I'm loving the "struggle" in the forward line this year. Some really interesting value picks going around that will reward or kill teams.
Yeah its the most intriguing line imo. I am really tempted to take Curnow. Only his 2023 average of 97 is polluted with a 130 v North and 186 + 176 against WCE. I usually avoid KPF but this year it would not surprise me if a few sides rolled the dice on Curnow.
 
Connor Macdonald:
Idea there that they're giving him more time in the middle?
Karl Amon: Not mid priced, I guess, but what's the buzz there? Assume it's hoping he plays down back and gets DPP early on?
Xerri will be fine, you don't run on your face.
Pre-season hit out at Hawks, Macdonald, Mackenzie and Hustwaite all rolling through the middle in the absence of Day.
 
I am waiting for my mid-pricer team to be processed through the AI model, but it currently says I need $14mil, 55 trades and 10 boosts, so back to pen and paper ideas for now.
Oh My .....how long B4 Coaches start utilising AI to create sides and trade options ?
 

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Strategy 2024 Midprice Madness

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