Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Revenant1965]

Appreciating the insights. Thanks

 

[LemmingMaster]

Absolutely, top 5. Love Sharp for next year. SA’s midfield arguably as good as Metro, although Metro are rotating bigger numbers through there.

Sharp would almost be one of my top picks this year if you were allowed to take him. That kid is a gun and W.A's Fred Rodriguez.


I know you cannot trust BF mock drafters but my god some of them had Murphy Reid outside of the top 15, that is beyond me. If he drifts anywhere outside the top 10, I would love Carlton to move up the order to obtain him.

Lombard, Drapar, FOS (have not seen him in the last year), Ashcroft, Smith - Those are going to be around the mark for top 7 or so players. Struggle to see them dropping too far. I have Murphy around those players.
I think Lombard and Drapar offer a little explosiveness that sets them apart but Murphy is one of the cleanest and smartest players in the draft. His kicking skills are elite as well, much better than most other options.
I loved Smillie at first but he is a little hit and miss at times. Would want him to improve his output.

Trainor - Seems one of the better defenders in the draft class, it is his closing speed and kicking skills that are great. Needs to work a little on his one on one work.
Travaglia - This kid is fun to watch and anyone that needs a mid sized defender would not go wrong here.
Berry - This is my pick for smart small forwards that long term I think have midfield ability
Hargrave - Another guy worth keeping an eye on as he might drift in the draft and I don't mind his ability.
Kako is fun for a lively small forward

There is not a lot of super top end talent, but there is enough there to get a solid player in the top 20. We've lost a number of BF posters in recent years, but the people posting at the moment, they have completely different ratings to my current thoughts.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Sharp would almost be one of my top picks this year if you were allowed to take him. That kid is a gun and W.A's Fred Rodriguez.


I know you cannot trust BF mock drafters but my god some of them had Murphy Reid outside of the top 15, that is beyond me. If he drifts anywhere outside the top 10, I would love Carlton to move up the order to obtain him.

Lombard, Drapar, FOS (have not seen him in the last year), Ashcroft, Smith - Those are going to be around the mark for top 7 or so players. Struggle to see them dropping too far. I have Murphy around those players.
I think Lombard and Drapar offer a little explosiveness that sets them apart but Murphy is one of the cleanest and smartest players in the draft. His kicking skills are elite as well, much better than most other options.
I loved Smillie at first but he is a little hit and miss at times. Would want him to improve his output.

Trainor - Seems one of the better defenders in the draft class, it is his closing speed and kicking skills that are great. Needs to work a little on his one on one work.
Travaglia - This kid is fun to watch and anyone that needs a mid sized defender would not go wrong here.
Berry - This is my pick for smart small forwards that long term I think have midfield ability
Hargrave - Another guy worth keeping an eye on as he might drift in the draft and I don't mind his ability.
Kako is fun for a lively small forward

There is not a lot of super top end talent, but there is enough there to get a solid player in the top 20. We've lost a number of BF posters in recent years, but the people posting at the moment, they have completely different ratings to my current thoughts.

I like Reid but don't think we could pick him with our already fairly slow midfield that will be adding the two Campo boys too. Kicking skill is great but we do need a point of difference (Likely what we'll get with Cody Walker in 2026)

Agree on Berry, think his ability to cleanly handle the ball and find it in traffic will translate to a midfield switch at some point. Really like him.

Barrett showed some serious X-Factor today as a pure small forward.

Lombard and Draper my two favourites of the 'top end' talent. FOS, Jagga, Smillie, Ashcroft etc just don't really excite me a lot after watching them a fair bit this year.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

One to watch as a potential rookie/very late pick is a boy called Luke Kennedy. Played his juniors with Armstrong who blitzed it today. A bit small in stature atm but very agile and a fantastic runner - Ran 5:54 2km as a 16 year old, kicks left and right equally as well and is super clean. Also won his local clubs senior footy BnF only playing about half the games. Currently playing for Sandy from memory.

Unfortunately missed out on the champs squad.

 

[Stefchook]

As long as we draft one really fast player, like we did with Wilson last year, I'll be happy. We could do with another quality young athletic key position player. But other than that, speed is about the only weakness we have on our list.

 

[Coona Blues]

I like Reid but don't think we could pick him with our already fairly slow midfield that will be adding the two Campo boys too. Kicking skill is great but we do need a point of difference (Likely what we'll get with Cody Walker in 2026)

Agree on Berry, think his ability to cleanly handle the ball and find it in traffic will translate to a midfield switch at some point. Really like him.

Barrett showed some serious X-Factor today as a pure small forward.

Lombard and Draper my two favourites of the 'top end' talent. FOS, Jagga, Smillie, Ashcroft etc just don't really excite me a lot after watching them a fair Ibit this year.

Footskills equal speed. Reid is a major POD with most of the draft crop. Would not discount him if was available.

There are many players to like in this draft, but most of them have a flaw or two or inconsistencies. I could mount a case for most of the highly rated players yet some considerable questions on almost all of them. Some of these would be prudent to overlook while the kids develop and some IMO threaten to reduce their output and therefore viability at the top of the order. Too many are selective in their efforts for me to regard this as a high quality draft, but history shows some of these types develop greater work ethics in the system, but more do not.

I am often tempted to try to do a legitimate draft, but realistically do not see enough of the players to formulate complete opinions not influenced by published opinions, highlight reels and first impressions. I have a habit of bias against the fleeting x-factor types without workrate. The game has moved that far that ability alone is less of a factor than in past eras.
I see much more than the majority of the five minute experts, but would love the time and resources to better assess more players.

The big questions I have is on our greatest need, key position prospects, particularly defenders. We are short on bankable depth and could part with much of that at season’s end. There are more forwards than defenders on offer at the moment. We need someone who will be ready to slot in beside Weitering in as little as a “couple” of years, and become leader of the pack in five or so. It is a special recruiter who can genuinely pick a gun KPD on limited underage showings.We don’t see enough of most of the prospects although I will take Cody Curtin next year thanks.

If I am rating the mids at the top of the draft, I am watching the remainder of their seasons.
O’Sullivan and Draper based on last year and Draper’s current momentum remain the peas for me. FOS gets credit although we haven’t seen him at the Championships. I have big questions on Smillie’s body of work so mark him down, but he could be a gun offensive mid. I have Jagga Smith in front of him as a bankable high volume, link type capable of winning his own ball. Works both ways better than most of his contempories. Ashcroft in the discussion, but I don’t see him as a genuine inside player at the next level. Lombard more x-factor than most, but is he an engine room mid at the next level? Reid is absolutely a first rounder, possibly top 10.

I love Harry Oliver as a rebounder/ distributor who could graduate to midfield, debating how high he goes. Lalor shows enough to rise on boards, Travaglia a likely first rounder. Langford in top 10 discussions. Cooper Haynes a big lump who moves deceptively well and could be a gun forward or in the engine room. I am less enamoured by Moraes and Gross, but they could figure highly. Someone may gamble on Taj Hotton in the first round despite injury. LemmingMaster mentioned Hargrave who I like a lot, but probably not taken top 10, doesn’t show any weakness, but not a look at me type. Sam Marshall is the other prominent top ager from the Allies who is undersold from the Lions Academy. WA was supposedly short of top end talent but Bo Allan, possibly Urquhart and Smokey Hamish Davis may be in the first round mix, with another handful draftable depending on needs.

How do we seed the talls and where do they fit in? Trainor very high, Armstrong shot up today, the Whitlocks in the mix, Sims will have admirers and Harry O’Farrell had fans before injury. Nicholls, Welsh and Sheean have interest from SA along with ruckman Dodson. Allies’ Jobe Shanahan among the better tall forwards.

A handful of exciting small forward, some mentioned in the posts above, and a couple of medium hybrids could enter first round calculations.

Plenty of talent difficult to assess, so where do Ben and Lucas fit in? The questions regularly raised over Ben’s kicking should deter most clubs not Carlton from bidding high. His tenacity and high possessions could put him in the teens, but I think we have just as much chance, or more of getting him with our second depending on rule revisions. Someone may reach for a genuine wing/half back like Lucas, but I can see him lasting well in to the draft with the variety of talent. Jack Ough and Day-Wicks are two wingers who probably are in front on the open market. I will be more than happy if/when we pick up both if we don’t have to overpay.

Sorry if this is disjointed, didn’t set out to cover so much, but what the hell? Probably have missed a couple of high prospects. May do something more ordered after the champs. finish. Liking the draft class, but would like the chance to study and assess the kids personally to offer a firm order.

 

[LemmingMaster]

If Nick Daicos went pick 4, you hope most seasons there is a little discount on FS/Academy players unless obvious.
We may have to trade slightly up in the draft to secure a pick before Ben, assuming we have pick 18.

I'm looking for names in that late teens. Ben is an inside mid, Lucas is outside wing...

Harry Armstrong looked interesting and he could be a watch this space.
I did not love the Whitlocks but they might be around the mark as well, if we're looking long term for talls.

Your call on Hamish Davis is a good one, not sure he was used to the best of his abilities at the champs.
I love good ball users and Burke for W.A was also solid, just not sure he will go that high.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

If Nick Daicos went pick 4, you hope most seasons there is a little discount on FS/Academy players unless obvious.
We may have to trade slightly up in the draft to secure a pick before Ben, assuming we have pick 18.

I'm looking for names in that late teens. Ben is an inside mid, Lucas is outside wing...

Harry Armstrong looked interesting and he could be a watch this space.
I did not love the Whitlocks but they might be around the mark as well, if we're looking long term for talls.

Your call on Hamish Davis is a good one, not sure he was used to the best of his abilities at the champs.
I love good ball users and Burke for W.A was also solid, just not sure he will go that high.

How did Jonty Faull go in his first game for VC? He might be the bargain KPP working his way back into the season.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Footskills equal speed. Reid is a major POD with most of the draft crop. Would not discount him if was available.

While I understand the merit of this concept, I think it's misguided when discussing our list. Hewett, Cripps, Kennedy and Cerra are all capable 'slow' mids. They can win their own ball, play defensively on other lumbering inside mids and retain the ball pretty well when they need to. What we lack (and this is why we've been using Cincotta as a tagger - an explosive, quick off the mark athlete) is someone with leg speed capable of creating space with their run or closing the gap on a quicker, nimbler opponent. If we win the majority of the contest it doesn't matter too much but it is a hole in the list. We generally don't have an answer to players like Warner, Daicos, Gulden etc in our regular on ball line up.

There are many players to like in this draft, but most of them have a flaw or two or inconsistencies. I could mount a case for most of the highly rated players yet some considerable questions on almost all of them. Some of these would be prudent to overlook while the kids develop and some IMO threaten to reduce their output and therefore viability at the top of the order. Too many are selective in their efforts for me to regard this as a high quality draft, but history shows some of these types develop greater work ethics in the system, but more do not.

Yeah agree, think this is going to be one of those drafts where a lot of players who end up shining will have come from mid-late first/2nd rounders. The top 10 prospects don't really seem to be the most 'talented' in some cases, but they're the most consistent and professional. Think it's actually got a lot of similarities to the 2017 draft.

I am often tempted to try to do a legitimate draft, but realistically do not see enough of the players to formulate complete opinions not influenced by published opinions, highlight reels and first impressions. I have a habit of bias against the fleeting x-factor types without workrate. The game has moved that far that ability alone is less of a factor than in past eras.
I see much more than the majority of the five minute experts, but would love the time and resources to better assess more players.

Not having a dig but weren't you quite a big fan of Moir last year? May I ask why if thats the way you're inclined? I'm admittedly the opposite in that while I do value workrate immensely, I'm still drawn to the x-factor types more than others, especially in certain positions. I was a big fan of Collard through the year and his impressive combine only furthered my interest.

The big questions I have is on our greatest need, key position prospects, particularly defenders. We are short on bankable depth and could part with much of that at season’s end. There are more forwards than defenders on offer at the moment. We need someone who will be ready to slot in beside Weitering in as little as a “couple” of years, and become leader of the pack in five or so. It is a special recruiter who can genuinely pick a gun KPD on limited underage showings.We don’t see enough of most of the prospects although I will take Cody Curtin next year thanks.

Agreed, atm I just haven't seen one I'm convinced on yet. Plenty have shown signs of being potential stars but are far too sporadic in their output for mine. I'd prioritize a more consistent talent such as Travaglia, Berry, Lalor etc for that reason if they were at our pick before Ben and then look to select a tall with a later pick if possible while balancing the Campo bids. Not sure how it will play out at this stage though.

How do we seed the talls and where do they fit in? Trainor very high, Armstrong shot up today, the Whitlocks in the mix, Sims will have admirers and Harry O’Farrell had fans before injury. Nicholls, Welsh and Sheean have interest from SA along with ruckman Dodson. Allies’ Jobe Shanahan among the better tall forwards.

Struggling with the same thing atm. Each one can look a superstar one week and invisible the next.

A handful of exciting small forward, some mentioned in the posts above, and a couple of medium hybrids could enter first round calculations.

Some very very exciting talents in this draft for that position, I'm not sure I'd invest heavily into a pure small forward in the draft though. I like Berry for his projected versatility for that reason.

Plenty of talent difficult to assess, so where do Ben and Lucas fit in? The questions regularly raised over Ben’s kicking should deter most clubs not Carlton from bidding high. His tenacity and high possessions could put him in the teens, but I think we have just as much chance, or more of getting him with our second depending on rule revisions. Someone may reach for a genuine wing/half back like Lucas, but I can see him lasting well in to the draft with the variety of talent. Jack Ough and Day-Wicks are two wingers who probably are in front on the open market. I will be more than happy if/when we pick up both if we don’t have to overpay.

Yeah I agree with the Campo bid stuff, I think a Ben bid could come anywhere from 20-35. I don't think there will be a heap of clubs fawning over a player with his traits which would result in an early bid, despite him being a very solid prospect he's workmanlike and clubs know he's going to the Blues... Think they may overlook him for the most part in any of their plans.

Sorry if this is disjointed, didn’t set out to cover so much, but what the hell? Probably have missed a couple of high prospects. May do something more ordered after the champs. finish. Liking the draft class, but would like the chance to study and assess the kids personally to offer a firm order.

It's alright I enjoy ur contributions, bit of a task responding to so many separate points though

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If Nick Daicos went pick 4, you hope most seasons there is a little discount on FS/Academy players unless obvious.
We may have to trade slightly up in the draft to secure a pick before Ben, assuming we have pick 18.

I'm looking for names in that late teens. Ben is an inside mid, Lucas is outside wing...

Harry Armstrong looked interesting and he could be a watch this space.
I did not love the Whitlocks but they might be around the mark as well, if we're looking long term for talls.

Your call on Hamish Davis is a good one, not sure he was used to the best of his abilities at the champs.
I love good ball users and Burke for W.A was also solid, just not sure he will go that high.

I think we'd be looking to get up around pick 12-15. I reckon that would be safe range to get a pick in before Ben guaranteed (Barring some sort of SOS ambush)

 

[Christou2Kouta]

The one that didn’t get mentioned amongst that list of names is Alix Tauru. Reminds me of James Sicily

6

James Sicily

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

12.7

5star

HB

5.7

4star

M

6.3

5star

T

1.5

3star

MG

365.0

5star

D

19.4

4star

K

14.3

5star

HB

5.1

3star

M

5.9

5star

T

1.0

2star

MG

437.4

5star

D

10.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

173.8

3star

in how he plays.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Coona Blues]

The one that didn’t get mentioned amongst that list of names is Alix Tauru. Reminds me of James Sicily in how he plays.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yep, had some excellent moments. While he looks bigger is listed 192 cm. Certainly would have him in the mix as a defensive tall option, but didn’t highlight because of maybe not being genuine KPD size. Very small sample to judge ATM. Absolutely a close watch.

 

[Coona Blues]

Not having a dig but weren't you quite a big fan of Moir last year? May I ask why if thats the way you're inclined? I'm admittedly the opposite in that while I do value workrate immensely, I'm still drawn to the x-factor types more than others, especially in certain positions. I was a big fan of Collard through the year and his impressive combine only

Big fan is a stretch. I certainly ended up picking him in Phantoms for us. Simply because there was sweet FA else around our picks on a needs basis. I salivated over his under age year, and he was underwhelming last year. His disposal and presence was the reason I loved him as an underager, as opposed to pure x-factor.

I am not enamoured by his output in the twos. They interviewed Will White on the broadcast after Moir kicked a snag, and he was glowing in his praise. He clearly still does the sublime on the training track.

Thinking Moir is being built physically and mentally by the coaches. They will make him or break him soon enough. Pretty sure he is being told/shown that they value a body of work, and one percenters more than moments of flash. He could go either way, needs confidence in his body to handle the grind. He is a “specimen” so if they have managed to fix his hip/groin dramas it may take time to build him up body and mind.

I believed he was a better investment than others around our pick based on assessment around the Phantom Drafts. Was not super high on him through season, more nonplussed that such a talent could fall so far while still being regarded a leader by his state.

I have not written him off, the ceiling remains high, but he needs to step it up in the very near future. Our reserves is not a great environment at the moment, with so many players at cross roads in their careers, both AFL and VFL listed types. So much scope for frustrations and jealousies within the group.

 

[Coona Blues]

I think we'd be looking to get up around pick 12-15. I reckon that would be safe range to get a pick in before Ben guaranteed (Barring some sort of SOS ambush)

I honestly have no idea what we will do, if anything, regarding getting another pick. It remains feasible we just draft the Campos and elevate Boyd while grabbing a rookie or three.

We have extreme pressures on list spots for the next two or three drafts, so taking “extra” picks this year will have snowball effect over the next couple of off season movements.

We have a “premiership list” currently with plenty of players having significant upside. We need to set up the future while not throwing the baby out with the bath water. We may choose to keep our powder dry until next year while attempting some value picks in the rookie draft.

 

[Chamber JJJ]

Harry Armstrong is our pick he complete our forward line get around him also Barry Armstrong played for Carlton. Harry and The Camporeale boys.

 

[Chamber JJJ]

I really want us to take a tall with our first pick. However if taj hotton falls he would be my pick.

Harry Armstrong reminds me a bit of that Jeremy Cameron and a taller Mark Lecras would replace Jack Silvagni.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Harry Armstrong is our pick he complete our forward line get around him also Barry Armstrong played for Carlton. Harry and The Camporeale boys.

He is injured a fair bit. Kicks a lot of goals when he plays though

 

[Blue__Balls]

While I understand the merit of this concept, I think it's misguided when discussing our list. Hewett, Cripps, Kennedy and Cerra are all capable 'slow' mids. They can win their own ball, play defensively on other lumbering inside mids and retain the ball pretty well when they need to. What we lack (and this is why we've been using Cincotta as a tagger - an explosive, quick off the mark athlete) is someone with leg speed capable of creating space with their run or closing the gap on a quicker, nimbler opponent. If we win the majority of the contest it doesn't matter too much but it is a hole in the list. We generally don't have an answer to players like Warner, Daicos, Gulden etc in our regular on ball line up.

I think this was actually very evident against Richmond yesterday, For all that we ended up pumping them by 10 goals, when they got the handball game going in the first half we were just watching our guys futilely chasing tail. Now, they built their list around that, and a particular style of play, and it worked for a while and while they had certain players at their peak. I don't think we need to go as all-in on it as they did. But it was clear that in a footrace, most of the matchups were going their way, and it was our structure and our ability to win the contested ball that came out on top in the end. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be handy to have one or two players who can comfortably chase down all but the absolute fastest of opponents, especially if said player or two buy in to the defensive focus of our gameplan.

 

[LemmingMaster]

At the moment Carlton don't have a lot of massive holes in our list.

Tall forwards would be nice, but that is a lot of draft capital for little list gains.

Midfield speed would be nice, but once again, most teams would love midfield speed.

I would prefer players that have great ball skills over a little extra speed. Quick ball movement can cover for lack of speed.
Watching Hollands play with his one touch and how the game slows down around him, Reid gives me that same feeling.
He drifts forward and kicks goals, one touch and just finds space and hits targets. While he might not have Drapers explosive power (we're not getting a pick anywhere near him), he is the guy that might be well priced and around our pick.
Marshall would also tickle my fancy if not already locked into the Lions.
Travaglia could be another option, was playing as a midfielder at one point before this champs. Love his workrate and he could be that Newman long term replacement and would add to the Cowan backline for years to come.

 

[LemmingMaster]

I think this was actually very evident against Richmond yesterday, For all that we ended up pumping them by 10 goals, when they got the handball game going in the first half we were just watching our guys futilely chasing tail. Now, they built their list around that, and a particular style of play, and it worked for a while and while they had certain players at their peak. I don't think we need to go as all-in on it as they did. But it was clear that in a footrace, most of the matchups were going their way, and it was our structure and our ability to win the contested ball that came out on top in the end. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be handy to have one or two players who can comfortably chase down all but the absolute fastest of opponents, especially if said player or two buy in to the defensive focus of our gameplan.

It is not always a zero sum game, you might get the player with speed but you get someone who cannot kick (Dow)...

I still think the two key aspects you want from a player at AFL level is one touch and above average skills.

 

[Sector 7G]

It is not always a zero sum game, you might get the player with speed but you get someone who cannot kick (Dow)...

I still think the two key aspects you want from a player at AFL level is one touch and above average skills.

Ability to find and win the ball. Dow and LOB both struggled with this. The Campos both seem to have no trouble wracking it up. Looks like they are both sliding for inconsistent players who have better highlights.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I think this was actually very evident against Richmond yesterday, For all that we ended up pumping them by 10 goals, when they got the handball game going in the first half we were just watching our guys futilely chasing tail. Now, they built their list around that, and a particular style of play, and it worked for a while and while they had certain players at their peak. I don't think we need to go as all-in on it as they did. But it was clear that in a footrace, most of the matchups were going their way, and it was our structure and our ability to win the contested ball that came out on top in the end. Doesn't mean it wouldn't be handy to have one or two players who can comfortably chase down all but the absolute fastest of opponents, especially if said player or two buy in to the defensive focus of our gameplan.

Yeah I don't think it's a massive issue but it's certainly a hole in our regular midfield mix. I think Cincotta will help a hell of a lot with that when we come up against Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane etc as he's got the speed and agility needed for that role but someone like Urquhart who's a freakishly powerful athlete but a bit perhaps not the best 'footballer' wouldn't be a bad option imo. Have him in as that ready made enforcer type who can stick to his opponent like glue when needed.

Comes down to short term gain vs long term success I guess. Personally think we'll just live with it for the time being and try to strengthen other areas of the field, backing in our mids to win reduce the damage as best they can.

 

[BlueJet]

Yep, had some excellent moments. While he looks bigger is listed 192 cm. Certainly would have him in the mix as a defensive tall option, but didn’t highlight because of maybe not being genuine KPD size. Very small sample to judge ATM. Absolutely a close watch.

Nice prospect but a bit undersized for a KPD spot - probably better suited to a third tall role IMO.

 

[BlueJet]

Ability to find and win the ball. Dow and LOB both struggled with this. The Campos both seem to have no trouble wracking it up. Looks like they are both sliding for inconsistent players who have better highlights.

This is becoming an underrated skill as the ability to remain in the game/retain possession is obviously important. I feel that there's often value available as clubs reach for x-factor at the expense of function.

 

[Stamos]

Yep, had some excellent moments. While he looks bigger is listed 192 cm. Certainly would have him in the mix as a defensive tall option, but didn’t highlight because of maybe not being genuine KPD size. Very small sample to judge ATM. Absolutely a close watch.

Twomey had him 193 last week.
Maybe he's growing?