Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Forty3]

I agree 100% that others would have more impact on the team from day 1, but if the recruiting team believes that Smith will be a better player over the course of his career than FOS or Lalor, then the last thing I want them to change their mind over is what role they'll play when they're 18 and 19.

Imagine 5 years down the track when one gets 30 Brownlow votes in a season. I don't think we'll remember who had 18 touches and half a goal a game in their first year rather than 15.


One other thing I'll note is Jagga's defensive side concerns me a little. Especially compared to Draper who has been racking up tackles against grown men.

I guess I am just a bit jaded by our development over the years for players not getting games in the 1s.

Although I think Power has really improved that. Also, it would help if our 2s didn't have to play most of the season with less than 5 AFL listed players. Which goes back to the old injury talk.

Very hard to develop in the VFL if you are playing in a side that is regularly calling in players from the lower divisions to fill in. No continuity of playing ground makes it very hard to instill a gameplan and structures.

 

[9874123]

I guess I am just a bit jaded by our development over the years for players not getting games in the 1s.

Although I think Power has really improved that. Also, it would help if our 2s didn't have to play most of the season with less than 5 AFL listed players. Which goes back to the old injury talk.

Very hard to develop in the VFL if you are playing in a side that is regularly calling in players from the lower divisions to fill in. No continuity of playing ground makes it very hard to instill a gameplan and structures.

I think Power is doing a good job in trying circumstances. Lord (not that we can take too much credit for him), Binns, and especially Moir seem to be coming along nicely. I am confident the VFL team will be better next year. If we can't trust our draftees to get better in the 2s then there's not much point to any of this IMO. You can't build a premiership list from 26 players.

 

[Forty3]

I think Power is doing a good job in trying circumstances. Lord (not that we can take too much credit for him), Binns, and especially Moir seem to be coming along nicely. I am confident the VFL team will be better next year. If we can't trust our draftees to get better in the 2s then there's not much point to any of this IMO. You can't build a premiership list from 26 players.

100% agree. Power is a fantastic coach, in fact, in a lot of ways I believe he is a better coach than the 1s coach.

Just needs the cattle to be able to do it.

That said, not a lot of top 3 picks spend much time in the 2s. In the last 10 drafts Dow and Phillips are the only ones really.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Jagga has been a prodigious talent for years, he was getting the Cody Walker kinda of talk playing as a 15 year old.

The only reason I would have FOS/Lalor above him on our draft board is I feel Jagga is an out and out mid. Where as the other two have shown more forward craft. Jagga can definitely kick goals, but usually does it whilst still playing midfield.

Going off the assumption, and what history tells us, our midfield is a hard one to crack at the moment, so I'd be leaning towards the other two as they will both be great midfielder, but in their development periods I think they are more suited to getting AFL experience whilst playing as a half forward to start off with.

I am not saying that Jagga is like or going to turn out like Dow, but just using Dow as an example. He was always a midfielder, his best asset is reading the ruck taps. He found it incredible hard to find a spot in our team cause he didn't have the flexibility to play the forward role. This would be my one and only question mark around Jagga.

That said, I wonder if Jagga could play the N Daicos/ Sheezel half back role to start off with?

I really do rate him very highly. Just thinking in regards to our team specifically.

This has been my concern with Jagga for us too 43.

He is a prodigious clearance player, one of the most natural we've seen come through for as long as I can remember. He expertly reads the taps at stoppage and centre bounces and is nearly always the first to react whether it be loose balls or getting into position for a handball receive.

But... We have Cripps, and we have Walker on his way. Regardless of Jagga's natural instincts nobody is displacing Cripps as our go to at centre bounces and stoppages for at least a few years. And after watching Cody this year he seems to thrive in that same role as the number 1 option at stoppage.

However, Walsh isn't a great clearance player, nor is Cerra. Hewett is a fantastic clearance player but is a bit more of the defensive piece in our mix.

The question I have is how does Jagga look besides a Cripps or Walker type? They're far more explosive athletes and extraordinarily hard to move off their line. How would Jagga go playing 2nd fiddle to one of them? It deprives him of his number 1 asset but allows him to perhaps be the out the front of stoppage receiver instead?

That would be up to the list and coaching team to decide, I'm genuinely 50/50 on it. His size is also a bit of a concern but hopefully he can add some weight to his frame over the next few years.

 

[Dunna Heartknee]

I’d certainly take Jagga if Lalor was gone. And I think you’re right, he could spend a year alternating between mid, forward and back. He oozes class and is extremely damaging kicking inside 50.

He just looks like a type that a team like the Hawks would throw the world at because he would take a team like there’s to a completely new level. Definitely has a bit of Nick Daicos about him imo

I find it hard to fathom a player like Jagga drifting to 3, If he gets to our pick I'd take him in a heartbeat.

 

[katmanblue]

Jumper number 7 available for Draper.


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[bradfisher14]

O'Farrell would be a great get if he makes it that far in my opinion.

Matt Whitlock is a sneaky chance of slipping, especially with 27, 28, 31, 34 all likely to be used pick matching.

As for pick 3, I get the feeling the tigers are set on Lalor, North I believe will look to go taller.
I've love Jagga for a while, FOS and Draper are the other two.
Only worry with Draper is the potential flight risk, especially with the SA sides having a focus on home ground talent.
Might be worth drafting him just to strengthen our hand of obtaining Butters if he does decide to return home... would be a bold strategy.
It seems like Lalor and FOS have had their reputations grow due to missing games with injury whilst Jagga has been so consistent for 4 years, but people want to find reasons to not pick him.
Reminds me a little of the Walsh chat in the lead up, clear stand out and healthy player throughout years of juniors, but the closer the draft got, the more people wanted to find holes in his game, rather than celebrate how good he'd been.

We can’t seriously be worried about flight risks when making decisions at the pointy end of the draft. We’re not west coast. No one in their right mind will want to leave a big Victorian club that is contending for premierships.

Talking specifically about Draper, I don’t get the JHF vibe with him at all. In any case, we have plenty of south Aussies at the club to make him feel at home, including his teammates at state level Ben and Lucas who he would be getting drafted alongside.

Not meaning to have a crack at you 43, always appreciate your insights, but I would hate to see us adopt a small club mentality when it comes to player recruitment. Do you happen to know something we don’t about Draper being a flight risk?

 

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

This has been my concern with Jagga for us too 43.

He is a prodigious clearance player, one of the most natural we've seen come through for as long as I can remember. He expertly reads the taps at stoppage and centre bounces and is nearly always the first to react whether it be loose balls or getting into position for a handball receive.

But... We have Cripps, and we have Walker on his way. Regardless of Jagga's natural instincts nobody is displacing Cripps as our go to at centre bounces and stoppages for at least a few years. And after watching Cody this year he seems to thrive in that same role as the number 1 option at stoppage.

However, Walsh isn't a great clearance player, nor is Cerra. Hewett is a fantastic clearance player but is a bit more of the defensive piece in our mix.

The question I have is how does Jagga look besides a Cripps or Walker type? They're far more explosive athletes and extraordinarily hard to move off their line. How would Jagga go playing 2nd fiddle to one of them? It deprives him of his number 1 asset but allows him to perhaps be the out the front of stoppage receiver instead?

That would be up to the list and coaching team to decide, I'm genuinely 50/50 on it. His size is also a bit of a concern but hopefully he can add some weight to his frame over the next few years.

I actually think his strengths will be perfect for our clearance game. We are far too slow inside to outside. Jagga is the best loose ball get player I’ve seen in a while. He will get to the ball first ahead of anyone else. Hand off to Cerra and away we go.

My only concern with Jagga is that we aren’t addressing the biggest weakness which is explosiveness away from the stoppage forward of centre and scoreboard impact. This is why FOS and Lalor would be ahead of him. I would still pick Smith over Draper though.

 

[Kernafides]

My mate is a mad richmond supporter who watches a ton of the vfl and he says Smith is a ball magnet with dodgy disposal

 

[Blue_Fusion]

I’m not saying I don’t like Draper, I just don’t think he is top 3. I wonder whether we are all so invested on getting a speedy mid because that’s what we are currently missing.

I’ve always believed if you have a top 5 pick you pick best available and not based on needs. Draper maybe the best available, I just don’t view him to be

Smith, FOS and Lalor are all pretty quick too.

FOS doesn't get the ball enough. For me, if he's not able to do that at this level... then hard to see it happening at AFL level.

Smith is probably the safest option, maybe doesn't have as high of a ceiling.

I like Lalor, but Tigers will pick him up imo.

Going to be a very interesting decision...

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Smith, FOS and Lalor are all pretty quick too.

FOS doesn't get the ball enough. For me, if he's not able to do that at this level... then hard to see it happening at AFL level.

Smith is probably the safest option, maybe doesn't have as high of a ceiling.

I like Lalor, but Tigers will pick him up imo.

Going to be a very interesting decision...

FOS is more impactful with his disposal which is what we need, just because he doesn’t get high numbers is not a negative and I don’t see why people see that as a negative.

Give me impactful, quality disposals with a goal or 2 over a high 30-40 disposals that don’t have impact any day!!

Look at Will Ashcroft

 

[Crippa16]

I just don’t see it with Finn O’Sullivan guys. He can’t kick, doesn’t have great speed and I just can’t see the high impact that everyone raves about. If we take him it will be Dow Mark II.

Jagga has to be priority 1. He’s very Nick Daicos like with his speed and movement in and around traffic. If not him I’d take Lalor, Langford or Draper. Langford will be that forward mid player that will take clutch marks in big moments up forward.

 

[Malifice]

Alright lads, more vision of Finn playing in 2023

----

Heavy demand in recent days to see more of Finn O'Sullivan during his relatively injury free bottom age campaign. Here we see him leading his Chargers to a big win in the first round of last years Talent League finals. He cracks in hard at stoppage, winning a lot of footy and laying tackles. He shows his ability to dodge and weave around tacklers, and the audacity to take on the play with calculated risks to break lines.

24 touches, with a few being turnovers. Hardly setting the world on fire, and people are ranting about this kid.

Low disposal non damaging mid who went backwards this year. Am I the only one seeing this?

 

[Christou2Kouta]

My mate is a mad richmond supporter who watches a ton of the vfl and he says Smith is a ball magnet with dodgy disposal

Nah, that’s not true. He’s a brilliant decision maker with sound disposal.

He reads the play better than anyone and is so balanced and quick to dispose of the footy by foot and hand that he rarely gets tackled before being able to use the ball productively.

If we decide that improving our transition footy game was the biggest priority, he and Walsh would provide a serious tag team linking up the play.

As others have said, O’Sullivan and Lalor have more clear scope of a second position in the forward line, particularly in their developing years but in terms of a pure mid, who is going to help us exit clearances purposefully and link up chains of possession in transition, you won’t find better than Jagga.


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[CrippaTheGoat9]

I just don’t see it with Finn O’Sullivan guys. He can’t kick, doesn’t have great speed and I just can’t see the high impact that everyone raves about. If we take him it will be Dow Mark II.

Jagga has to be priority 1. He’s very Nick Daicos like with his speed and movement in and around traffic. If not him I’d take Lalor, Langford or Draper. Langford will be that forward mid player that will take clutch marks in big moments up forward.

Would really love Jagga, just think the criticism of Finn is wrong and misguided

 

[HarryFlashman]

FOS is more impactful with his disposal which is what we need, just because he doesn’t get high numbers is not a negative and I don’t see why people see that as a negative.

Give me impactful, quality disposals with a goal or 2 over a high 30-40 disposals that don’t have impact any day!!

Look at Will Ashcroft

I’m with you, watching the highlights FOS looks like he reads the play extremely well, doesn’t over commit & hunt the ball, sees how the play is unfolding & moves to the right spot to have a meaningful impact (both defensively & offensively).
Given we have the best inside player in the league & Cerra back fit provides both inside & outside work I think that his attributes is the most complementary to our mix.
FOS is smart enough to be in a position to release the clearance which will dramatically increase our speed.
I’d be running Cerra, Crippa, FOS as team A for CBA with Walsh hammering in from the side & Doc coming from the back of the square.

We get the leading patterns sorted ahead of the ball & I think we fix a big weakness.

 

[Matty411]

I'm all in on Jagga and Draper. Best fit for our midfield, both low floor and high ceiling us massive runs on the board in their own way this year.

Watch out for Crows to move up for North's pick with 6/11 though to get the local boy.

I can see us asking to move Brissy F2 on with 38 for an early 20s pick in coming weeks.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

After watching more Oakley games, I have to say that Jagga is amazingly impressive and is flying under the radar a bit. If I was Richmond I would take him for sure. He always seems to attack the front of the stoppage, I don't think I've ever seen him fumble, combines composure and "slippery-ness" in traffic to ensure he finds the best option, and is an absolute footy-magnet. I don't agree that he isn't impactful, I think that is often something one says about prospects who get a lot of inside-footy. He is a nice kick, knows where the big sticks are, and is quick. Combine that with his decision making and there have been a couple games that he has completely broken open.

This video shows all you could want to see in a midfield draft prospect. I would be worried for him if he does go to the Tigers, because he could end up being absolutely smashed from pillar-to-post in that team.

I'm now firmly in the Draper > Jagga >>> Lalor > FOS camp

Wow, he’d be fantastic forward and midfield. Significantly better game than anything I’ve seen from FOS, clearance stats would have been off the charts in that game and whilst I’m not into watching Coates League games Sandringham is nearly always up there as a top feeder team so he wouldn’t have been playing against gumps.

Just a bit small would be the only query but he’s quick, super agile and just doesn’t fumble under pressure


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[Pinnell]

One thing about Jagga.....he is slippery and smart around goals. First game of APS he played as a Year 10 for Scotch he snagged 4 goals - they couldn't put a glove on him.

 

[Stamos]

Watch out for Crows to move up for North's pick with 6/11 though to get the local boy.

Tiges?

I can see us asking to move Brissy F2 on with 38 for an early 20s pick in coming weeks.

We won’t be allowed to trade F2

 

[Blue_Fusion]

FOS is more impactful with his disposal which is what we need, just because he doesn’t get high numbers is not a negative and I don’t see why people see that as a negative.

Give me impactful, quality disposals with a goal or 2 over a high 30-40 disposals that don’t have impact any day!!

Look at Will Ashcroft

So many different opinions on who we should take... draft night can't come quick enough

 

[marcmurphy3]

A point worth noting in this comparison of different types and whether they suit us, is not all these guys will turn out to be quality of players. Yes, our odds are much higher picking at 3 but not guaranteed.

If there is a top 5, in all likelihood, there will be a few stars, a few good long terms players, and at least 1 bust. Avoid the busts and get a star should be the top priority. You can make arguments that all the guys suit us in different ways.

 

[marcmurphy3]

FOS is more impactful with his disposal which is what we need, just because he doesn’t get high numbers is not a negative and I don’t see why people see that as a negative.

Give me impactful, quality disposals with a goal or 2 over a high 30-40 disposals that don’t have impact any day!!

Look at Will Ashcroft

Will Ashcroft not a great example. He is an absolute ball magnet. It's one of his defining qualities.

For all this talk about damage vs possessions, if you are going to be a star mid at afl level then you need both. One or the other isn't good enough. There isn't a star mid in the afl that is averaging high teens/low 20s disposals. The lower possession high damage mids are still averaging 25+.

 

[Malifice]

After watching more Oakley games, I have to say that Jagga is amazingly impressive and is flying under the radar a bit. If I was Richmond I would take him for sure. He always seems to attack the front of the stoppage, I don't think I've ever seen him fumble, combines composure and "slippery-ness" in traffic to ensure he finds the best option, and is an absolute footy-magnet. I don't agree that he isn't impactful, I think that is often something one says about prospects who get a lot of inside-footy. He is a nice kick, knows where the big sticks are, and is quick. Combine that with his decision making and there have been a couple games that he has completely broken open.

This video shows all you could want to see in a midfield draft prospect. I would be worried for him if he does go to the Tigers, because he could end up being absolutely smashed from pillar-to-post in that team.

I'm now firmly in the Draper > Jagga >>> Lalor > FOS camp

Smith and Draper (and Lalors) highlights are so much better than FOS's.

Not only do they pass the eye test easily, but their numbers are also better and they've done it against men (where FOS struggled to get 12 touches and didnt have an impact at VFL level).

I'm not even sure I'd have FOS at 4.

 

[Stamos]

Will Ashcroft not a great example. He is an absolute ball magnet. It's one of his defining qualities.

For all this talk about damage vs possessions, if you are going to be a star mid at afl level then you need both. One or the other isn't good enough. There isn't a star mid in the afl that is averaging high teens/low 20s disposals. The lower possession high damage mids are still averaging 25+.

JHF 21.8 this year