Analysis 2024 National Draft

[The Bighouse]

I remember going through North's thread on Will Phillips, and someone posted his pre-draft highlights and the discussion was "watching this all back, I don't know how we ever saw a top-3 pick here".

By and large, I will trust our recruiting team given that they must see 3-4 players they'd be thrilled with and I will back them in there. But all I am saying is that I can see a future where people watch pre-draft compilations of FOS and say "what on Earth were we thinking?"

Some scribes had him down as a potential standout AFL player (Rendall, had a pretty good eye).

 

[Ninja Worrier]

Smith and Draper (and Lalors) highlights are so much better than FOS's.

Not only do they pass the eye test easily, but their numbers are also better and they've done it against men (where FOS struggled to get 12 touches and didnt have an impact at VFL level).

I'm not even sure I'd have FOS at 4.

Kicked two goals (should have had three) and set another couple up from memory....low numbers yes but I wouldn't say low impact...not bad for a first up VFL game

 

[The Shag]

I’d like us to find a way to pick up Malakai Champion also. Not sure how, with list spots.
Perhaps rookie but would think gone by then


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[Stamos]

That's not because he can't win the ball but because he's young and still building his tank. Already shown he can get 30+.

Also, he's a gun but not in the absolute top echelon yet. He won't be making an all australian team or winning a brownlow averaging 22 (unless he kicks 30+ and it's as a forward). He'll be averaging 25+ next year anyway.

That wasn’t the point though.

You said star low possession/high damage mids still average 25+

 

[marcmurphy3]

That wasn’t the point though.

You said star low possession/high damage mids still average 25+

They do .

Anyway you obviously don't agree. That's fine.

 

[Arr0w]

I see FOS as Heeney lite

If you consider his under 16 and 17 seasons, he'd be clear number 1

 

[Coops93]

I want a mid with a point of difference. All our guys are fairly meat and potatoes. Don't get me wrong, at least 2 of them are elite M&P types so it's not meant as slander, but I think for the balance of the midfield we need 1 with a point of difference in how they play that changes the dynamic of the stoppage for us.

Penetrating kick, goal kicking, explosion are traits that come to mind.

I don't necessarily just want the safest bet mid, I want some elite traits, some x-factor around the ball.

FOS seems to have those, as does Lalor.

 

[Sector 7G]

Kicked two goals (should have had three) and set another couple up from memory....low numbers yes but I wouldn't say low impact...not bad for a first up VFL game

12 touches is not that low if playing HF and not in the midfield.

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

Hearing from a source that would definitely know that Dees Tigers and Saints all trying to get pick 2 from North.

Good deal for North IMO, I would keep 2 top 10 picks if I was the others

 

[El Topo]

Jagga moves up the rankings if he can impact on a flank...

 

[Juddrockz]

I see FOS as Heeney lite

If you consider his under 16 and 17 seasons, he'd be clear number 1

Just in regards to FOS,Dermie was on the panel on FoxSports talking about the draft kids. He mentioned he didnt think we see FOS for at least the first half of the season due to his body size. Dermie mentioned he'd watched FOS quite a bit this season and when he played against the bigger bodies he struggled a fair bit.
Don't know how accurate Dermie's opinion is though?

 

[ctwenty1]

Hearing from a source that would definitely know that Dees Tigers and Saints all trying to get pick 2 from North.

Good deal for North IMO, I would keep 2 top 10 picks if I was the others

all the potential trades ie 2 for 5&9, 7&8, are similar with 6&10 a little worse

Assuming north will be looking not to provide the additional pick with 2

 

[marcmurphy3]

all the potential trades ie 2 for 5&9, 7&8, are similar with 6&10 a little worse

Assuming north will be looking not to provide the additional pick with 2

They'd all want something significant back (e.g Roos F1), otherwise they would have just gone after WC 3. The only club I think would consider trading two top 10 picks in a straight swap is Richmond (just because they have so many picks). I personally think Richmond is the only realistic chance. Saints might offer 8 + F1 but doubt North do that. Wouldn't want to slide back that far.

 

[Blue__Balls]

My take on the likely candidates for our pick:

Jagga Smith - reckon he fits our needs to a tee, and he's as good a chance as any to end up the best of this draft. We've got some good ball winners and big bodies, so I don't think his slight frame is a huge issue, we can afford to have him sitting off the back of the contest a fair bit while his body matures. What I like most is his vision and speed of thought. He's constantly scanning his immediate options, even before he has the ball, so when he does get it he's able to make lightning quick decisions.

Sid Draper - another who suits our requirements. Think he's probably got a little bit of work to do on his disposal, but he's not poor by any stretch. Handballs look a little loopy/floaty, but a preseason with Cripps as a mentor should help on that front. Love his work rate and his willingness to tuck the ball and take ground, love his ability to pick the ball up off the deck without breaking stride. The SA go-home factor would hopefully be mitigated if he's joining the club alongside the Campos.

Harvey Langford - kind of hoping that he goes at 2...I like him as a player, but I don't think he brings what we need. Good player, decent kick, left footer....but lacks pace and don't think he's an especially good decision maker. Given he followed the Tigers as a kid, and spent some time with them earlier in the season, I think there's a genuine chance they take him if they trade up to hold the top 2 picks.

Sam Lalor - Another I hope goes before our pick. For mine, he's a better Kennedy, or a Wines who can park himself inside 50 from time to time. Can bullock his way around, but I think the "explosive" tag and comparisons to Dusty are a bit exaggerated. Good for plenty of sides, but doesn't address our midfield deficiencies.

Finn O'Sullivan - Seems to be the most contentious name in the mix at the moment. People either love him or hate him. For mine, I'm seeing a bloke who does a lot well, but nothing better than others available here. He's a hedge bet, you'd take him if your needs are broad and there's a pretty good chance he'll be a plug and play and you can add layers around him. I don't think that's where we're at though, we're trying to add the layers and he just doesn't do that.

Josh Smillie - similarly to Lalor and Langford, I don't think he adds to our midfield. If we already had the pace in our mix, I think he'd be a great choice as an understudy and eventual replacement for Cripps, but as it stands we have other priorities.

Best case scenarios:
Richmond trade up to Pick 2, and take two of O'Sullivan, Langford or Lalor. We take Smith and run for the hills.
Richmond take O'Sullivan or Lalor, North take the only "big" midfielder in Langford. We take Smith and run for the hills.

Next best scenario:
One of Richmond or North take Smith. We take Draper and are more than happy.

Worst case scenario:
We ignore our glaring needs and take slower contested type.

 

[V_23]

I have been thinking a similar order of preference but the more footage I see of Jagga such as your link the more I’m leaning towards Jagga as priority. Think he may have a higher ceiling than Draper.

Isn't he more of a contested player? If so, doesn't exactly complement our current mid set-up.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Imo Lalors 'best' game in terms of what you're getting. Has had higher disposal games but his strength over the ball and class use were on display here.

 

[Banga19]

Hearing from a source that would definitely know that Dees Tigers and Saints all trying to get pick 2 from North.

Good deal for North IMO, I would keep 2 top 10 picks if I was the others

If North do trade pick 2, I suspect that deal will make our trade for 3 look like daylight robbery

 

[JimmyRabbit49]

His brother was 5’8” at 18, now 6’2”

 

[Bletch]

I’d like us to find a way to pick up Malakai Champion also. Not sure how, with list spots.
Perhaps rookie but would think gone by then


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Isn't he an NGA pick?

 

[HarryFlashman]

Going to be fun to watch what deals get floated to north knowing we may have an opportunity to swoop in

 

[goreds]

His brother was 5’8” at 18, now 6’2”

Who??

 

[ctwenty1]

For those who have a better understanding of this, is it possible that Ashcroft "slides" enough such that Brisbane don't need pick 27 for points matching and we trade pick 38 and whatever else is required (ie F3/f4) to Brisbane and then take someone at 27, thereby nullifying the impact of the potential campo bid at 32?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

For those who have a better understanding of this, is it possible that Ashcroft "slides" enough such that Brisbane don't need pick 27 for points matching and we trade pick 38 and whatever else is required (ie F3/f4) to Brisbane and then take someone at 27, thereby nullifying the impact of the potential campo bid at 32?

Where would the point be, I can definitely see Levi not being bid on in the top #3.

 

[marcmurphy3]

For those who have a better understanding of this, is it possible that Ashcroft "slides" enough such that Brisbane don't need pick 27 for points matching and we trade pick 38 and whatever else is required (ie F3/f4) to Brisbane and then take someone at 27, thereby nullifying the impact of the potential campo bid at 32?

They will almost 100% trade 27 for more points on draft night, however, they may get better offers then ours. But doubt they trade it for futures.

 

[Ninja Worrier]

I have Lalor at #1 for us but sounds like he is going pick1