Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who will be our first selection on night 2 of the Draft?

  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .

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Benaly28 said:
Anyone else think the draft should be sooner rather than mid November I get the afl want to make it an event and after the spring carnival but it just seems to long after the trade period.


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The AFL is now an 11 months a year juggernaut, swallowing up interest from all competing sports. They have a fortnight off for Cox Plate and Cup Week, then a month over Christmas.

For the other 46 weeks of the year it is devouring all in its path.
 

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bradfisher14 said:
Really depends on how you view our team.

If you're of the view that our midfield is one-paced and not good enough to challenge - pick 3 is the best option.

If you think our midfield is good enough - 12 and 14 are ideal spots to fill other list holes.

I can understand both perspectives, but I think what we can get at pick 3 will make the biggest difference to our team.
Click to expand...

To me, Pick #3 needs to be for someone AFL ready (pace or no pace), drafted to come in and have an immediate impact.
My No-Compromise is they MUST have great disposal and hit targets.

If we were 'drafting for our future' we needed to keep 12 & 14 I think.
 
FlowersByIrene said:
I haven't looked at any Lombard highlights given he's not available to us, but his performances at the combine and his statistical profile generally project him as that fast, dynamic and strong midfielder that would really suit us. If he was available, he'd likely be my second preference in this draft after Draper.

But i think that's just the nature of academy players, they will drop lower than they probably should.
Click to expand...
Do we drop a bid on him (could have done with better negotiations over #13)…?
 
Benaly28 said:
Anyone else think the draft should be sooner rather than mid November I get the afl want to make it an event and after the spring carnival but it just seems to long after the trade period.


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It’s about the kids getting through year 12 exams with as few distractions as possible. No more, no less


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Arr0w said:
While it's exciting to see who we select at 3, I would have preferred 12 and 14
Click to expand...

I think what gets lost in this chat is that, we had 12 and 14 before we traded Owies and Kennedy, it’s possible we could have added another pick in the mid 20s or got one of those picks a bit higher with some trading.
 
bradfisher14 said:
Really depends on how you view our team.

If you're of the view that our midfield is one-paced and not good enough to challenge - pick 3 is the best option.

If you think our midfield is good enough - 12 and 14 are ideal spots to fill other list holes.

I can understand both perspectives, but I think what we can get at pick 3 will make the biggest difference to our team.
Click to expand...
I believe we can improve more than 1 area/type, having 2 picks in the top 15 also improves the probability of success

Coona Blues said:
All will become apparent on night two of the draft. If we can pick up one of the seemingly quality KPD with ~38 as well as the Camporeale boys it will be a master stroke.

Think there are good players who would suit us at 12 and 14, but if we get a top end mid with power, run and a defensive want with a premium pick that few of us expected to have for perhaps a decade or more it becomes a generational move. We absolutely need to invest in key backs though.

Seemingly the club rate other needs as being lesser. Many of us wanted a small forward option, but a top tier mid to team with our existing “fleet” and Cody Walker in a couple of years sets us up for a very long time.
Click to expand...
We could still have had pick 38, while 2 picks in the top 15


DangerousD said:
I think what gets lost in this chat is that, we had 12 and 14 before we traded Owies and Kennedy, it’s possible we could have added another pick in the mid 20s or got one of those picks a bit higher with some trading.
Click to expand...

Perhaps a better pick than 38
 
The historical comparisons between pick 3 and picks 12 & 14 that were posted during trade week were instructive. Pick 3 is usually a lock (unless it's us doing the picking :'(). One of pick 12 and 14 in any given year will usually be a decent to good player, with the most common outcome being 1 from 2.

Past performance isn't necessarily an indicator of future performance, but the names selected at these picks over the last decade suggests that we're safer with one at the top end than two in the teens.
 
Arr0w said:
While it's exciting to see who we select at 3, I would have preferred 12 and 14
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It does seem counter intuitive on face value....in a draft that the experts say is one of the deepest, you'd think it'd be wiser to trade down rather than up - similarly if it was seen as a shallow draft, you'd look to trade up.

Picks 12 and 14 in this draft may well be much better value than pick 3, but it may be one of the rare opportunities for a while that we get a talented kid at the pointy end of the draft, especially with Tassie coming in - although we do have a potential #1 pick arriving at our doorstep in a couple of years :cool:
 
Arr0w said:
Perhaps a time capsule

The actual pick 3, versus 2 players available at pick 12 and 14

Might be fun to look back in 10 years time
Click to expand...
Below is a list from 2013 onwards of what was drafted at 3 vs 12 and 14 taking out Father son and Academy selections in the draft order.

2013 - Jack Billings - Pat Cripps and Zac Jones
2014 - Andrew Brayshaw - Luke Weller and Sam Durdin
2015 - Clayton Oliver - Tom Doedee and Ryan Burton
2016 - Hugh McCluggage - Jordan Gallucci and Jarrod Berry
2017 - Paddy Dow - Darcy Fogarty and Matthew Ling
2018 - Izzac Rankine - Jordan Clark and Sam Sturt
2019 - Luke Jackson - Miles Bergman and Copper Stephens
2020 - Logan McDonald - Heath Chapman and Oliver Henry
2021 - Mac Andrew - Campbell Chesser and Darcy Wilmont
2022 - George Wardlaw - Elijah Hewitt and Josh Weddle
2023 - Zane Duursma- Kolthyn Thorlsup and James Leaske

Which selection group do you prefer ?
 

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Arr0w said:
Perhaps a time capsule

The actual pick 3, versus 2 players available at pick 12 and 14

Might be fun to look back in 10 years time
Click to expand...
How about draft night, I will send you a message or something and state who I would have picked.... Lock it away and see what was a better option in this hypothetical world.
 
bradfisher14 said:
It’s the new buzzword in recruiting circles that means absolutely nothing.

Clancy Dennis and Harry O'Farrell as well. I hope we pick up one of these 4 names.
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If these 4 were available, which one would be best fit for us, and why? I am interested to hear various thoughts about #38, if get to keep it...
 
Penetrator said:
Below is a list from 2013 onwards of what was drafted at 3 vs 12 and 14 taking out Father son and Academy selections in the draft order.

2013 - Pat Cripps and Zac Jones
2014 - Andrew Brayshaw
2015 - Clayton Oliver
2016 - Hugh McCluggage
2017 - Darcy Fogarty and Matthew Ling
2018 - Izzac Rankine
2019 - Luke Jackson
2020 - Logan McDonald - Heath Chapman and Oliver Henry
2021 - Mac Andrew
2022 - George Wardlaw
2023 - Zane Duursma-

Which selection group do you prefer ?
Click to expand...

8 times - Pick 3
2 times - 12/14
and one tie
 
FlowersByIrene said:
With absolutely no actual insight and based purely off vibes I think the top end is heavily favoured to last season, but then this draft would clear out the back end of the Top 10.

1. Reid (23)
2. McKercher (23)
3. Walter (23)
4. Ashcroft (24)
5. Sanders (23)
6. Jagga (24)
7. FOS (24)
8. Lalor (24)
9. Langford (24)
10. Draper (24)

(Noting the above is from a sort of 'concensus' view, I personally wouldn't take Walter that high, or Sanders or Draper that low, but suspect that is likely where it is).

Rough crack at 10-20.

11. Zane Duursma (23)
12. Leo Lombard (24)
13. Nick Watson (23)
14. Ethan Read (23)
15. Josh Smilie (24)
16. Murphy Reid (24)
17. Alix Tauru (24)
18. Harry Armstrong (24)
19. Bo Allen (24)
20. Daniel Curtin (23)
Click to expand...

Much better than the other effort.

Although Zane and Watson should probably be higher than FOS and Jagga potentially.

The top 5 last year is stronger than this years top 5 in just about every department. There’s no comparison really.

The evenesss comes from the next 15 or so picks after that.
 
Arr0w said:
Perhaps a time capsule

The actual pick 3, versus 2 players available at pick 12 and 14

Might be fun to look back in 10 years time
Click to expand...
To make it fair I think it needs to be 3 to 5 vs 12-17.
3 picks vs 6 picks. There’s every chance 4 is better than 3 & 13 is better than 12.
All the players would have been available.
If 2 of the 6 are better than 1 of the 3 then we made an error.
 
Arr0w said:
While it's exciting to see who we select at 3, I would have preferred 12 and 14
Click to expand...

Agreed. Real value picks in that range.

There is going to be some incredible pressure on pick 3 unfortunately. It’s hard to nail down our best option with lots of divided opinion.

2 bites of the cherry role players v all eggs in 1 basket. This draft will make or break Austin




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OK a comparison for the #3 selection v the #12 and #14 (Excluding F/S or Academy picks because they were never in contention anyway)

2023 - Zane Duursma v Will Green and Darcy Wilson
2022 - George Wardlaw v Mathew Jefferson and Josh Weddle
2021 - Mac Andrew v Campbell Chesser and Darcy Wilmot
2020 - Logan McDonald v Heath Chapman and Oliver Henry
2019 - Juke Jackson v Miles Bergman and Cooper Stephens
2018 - Izak Rankine v Jordan Clark and Sam Sturt
2017 - Paddy Dow v Darcy Fogarty and Mathew Ling
2016 - Hugh McCluggage v Jordan Gallucci and Jarrod Berry
2015 - Clayton Oliver v Tom Doedee and Ryan Burton
2014 - Angus Brayshaw v Lachie Weller and Jarrod Garlett
2013 - Jack Billings v Patrick Cripps and Zack Jones

Going any further back takes you into the GWS entrance draft (and GCS) which were so highly compromised that they are probably irrelevant for this discussion.

So I would say in most years I would clearly take the #3 over #12 and #14. The only clear cases where later picks were better IMO were when #3 was ended up being pretty crap (e.g. 2017 or 2013)
 
Penetrator said:
Below is a list from 2013 onwards of what was drafted at 3 vs 12 and 14 taking out Father son and Academy selections in the draft order.

2013 - Jack Billings - Pat Cripps and Zac Jones
2014 - Andrew Brayshaw - Luke Weller and Sam Durdin
2015 - Clayton Oliver - Tom Doedee and Ryan Burton
2016 - Hugh McCluggage - Jordan Gallucci and Jarrod Berry
2017 - Paddy Dow - Darcy Fogarty and Matthew Ling
2018 - Izzac Rankine - Jordan Clark and Sam Sturt
2019 - Luke Jackson - Miles Bergman and Copper Stephens
2020 - Logan McDonald - Heath Chapman and Oliver Henry
2021 - Mac Andrew - Campbell Chesser and Darcy Wilmont
2022 - George Wardlaw - Elijah Hewitt and Josh Weddle
2023 - Zane Duursma- Kolthyn Thorlsup and James Leaske

Which selection group do you prefer ?
Click to expand...


damn you !!! ............. lol give me 15 minutes of my life back ..........
 
BlackGoanna said:
Agreed. Real value picks in that range.

There is going to be some incredible pressure on pick 3 unfortunately. It’s hard to nail down our best option with lots of divided opinion.

2 bites of the cherry role players v all eggs in 1 basket. This draft will make or break Austin




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Yeah, Nah…😂
Either decision makes perfect justifiable sense.
You can’t hang Austin on erring on the side of being aggressive if it goes wrong.
It’s a competition - u don’t look back and go “jeez I wish we were more cautious when we were trying to get a competitive edge”
 
It is under estimated that it is a very rare chance of a Pick 3 coming into an already Finals team with already good leadership and a good top end of experienced midfielders and a good Ruckman.

Whoever is Pick 3 gets a chance to impact right away more than most Pick 3's.
 
Penetrator said:
Below is a list from 2013 onwards of what was drafted at 3 vs 12 and 14 taking out Father son and Academy selections in the draft order.

2013 - Jack Billings - Pat Cripps and Zac Jones
2014 - Andrew Brayshaw - Luke Weller and Sam Durdin
2015 - Clayton Oliver - Tom Doedee and Ryan Burton
2016 - Hugh McCluggage - Jordan Gallucci and Jarrod Berry
2017 - Paddy Dow - Darcy Fogarty and Matthew Ling
2018 - Izzac Rankine - Jordan Clark and Sam Sturt
2019 - Luke Jackson - Miles Bergman and Copper Stephens
2020 - Logan McDonald - Heath Chapman and Oliver Henry
2021 - Mac Andrew - Campbell Chesser and Darcy Wilmont
2022 - George Wardlaw - Elijah Hewitt and Josh Weddle
2023 - Zane Duursma- Kolthyn Thorlsup and James Leaske

Which selection group do you prefer ?
Click to expand...
You had me at 2013 Patrick Cripps…
Blindly I didn’t read the rest
 

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