Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Doro]

Such a good draft to be picking where we are. Id lean towards Smith but happy with any of them.

 

[AndyLucimitis]

My FOS red flag is his lack of accumulation, just struggle to currently see him finding the ball 20+ times at AFL level if he struggles to do it at under 18's level.
Even Cripps as an unfit 17 year old could find the ball 30+ times.

FOS may have games where he gets 20+ possessions and you love him, then he will have those 10 possession games and you'll be annoyed.
Rayner in his draft year was the same, struggled to find the ball, but he was super explosive. He's never transitioned to an AFL midfielder and has been stuck as that explosive game changing forward.

LDU v Dow - LDU racked up possessions and Dow was an "explosive" inside midfielder. Dow ended up being limited in his AFL positions and limited in his ability to find the ball.

Smith - You know there is a high chance at AFL level he will find it 30+ times a game, the question for him is how damaging will those possessions be, Tom Mitchell levels or maybe Neale levels?

Personally I’d prefer to start with the kid who gets it 30+ times and try and develop the other areas - at least he has the ball in his hand 30 times.


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[Jimmae]

How often do the players who test in the elite categories for speed at the combines go on to become the elite players in the game ?

Obviously that varies, because it's football, not amateur sprinting. It's not a negative trait or a red herring, just people get drawn in by the attribute and become biased.

Smith - You know there is a high chance at AFL level he will find it 30+ times a game, the question for him is how damaging will those possessions be, Tom Mitchell levels or maybe Neale levels?

Inbetween those two, with far more athletic ability than either.

Smillie has performed almost just as well as Langford this year, but he doesn't cop a mention in here for good reason. Adding another 190+ slow midfielder to our mix would be utterly ludicrous.

Smilie is notably quicker than Langford, but doesn't have the same tank, but he's also got a lot of puppy fat to lose. That reminds some people of Cripps in terms of future scope, but he plays more like a taller Dangerfield.

If people want to keep sleeping on him and we can trade down into that 6-8 range and nab him with another top 15 pick in our pocket, I would.

Would you classify Bontempelli as a slow midfielder? If you had the chance to draft a 18 year old Bont at pick 3 would you?

Bont tested slow, but he was very raw physically and all arms and legs as a junior. You could see what he was capable of if you watched his tape:

Exactly. It's that simple. He also reads the play better than the other 5. Doesn't rely on athleticism to make up for poor positioning which is an issue Carlton fans should be aware of considering our draft history.

I think you're underestimating what having AFL-capable endurance does for your ability accumulate in the junior grade. So many players sag off and can't transition from D50 to F50, so that opens up opportunities for him despite his lack of pace.

At AFL level he'd be much more reliant on his stoppage work, which is powerful.

EDIT: forgot to write in my comparison of Smilie to Dangerfield

 

[marcmurphy3]

A guy on the Richmond board who seems to know somebody in the Tigers media department suggesting they are pulling together lots of footage of Lalor for pick 1 and none of FOS. Also, pulling together footage of Jagga, Smillie and Langford for pick 6. But by far the most work done on Lalor.

Said a bunch of other stuff too that may or may not be credible. I tend to believe that he's got a friend in the Tigers media department as doesn't seem that farfetched but may just be putting 2 and 2 together with some of his other comments. Even if they were from his friend, you'd only get so much info in the media department.

He did call the eventual Shai Bolton

29

Shai Bolton

Age

25

Ht

176cm

Wt

77kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.4

4star

D

12.7

3star

K

9.2

4star

HB

3.5

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

1.8

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.0

1star

trade before it was finalised.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

A guy on the Richmond board who seems to know somebody in the Tigers media department suggesting they are pulling together lots of footage of Lalor for pick 1 and none of FOS. Also, pulling together footage of Jagga, Smillie and Langford for pick 6. But by far the most work done on Lalor.

Said a bunch of other stuff too that may or may not be credible. I tend to believe that he's got a friend in the Tigers media department as doesn't seem that farfetched but may just be putting 2 and 2 together with some of his other comments. Even if they were from his friend, you'd only get so much info in the media department.

He did call the eventual Shai Bolton trade before it was finalised.

Just read the post, he says everything is super super hush hush but he knows all the video packages they’ve done on the players they want?

Looking forward to all of this being over with and we can just move on with the super talent we bring in

 

[Jimmae]

I think if I had to characterize how I see the current top 5 by ceiling and floor

Sam Lalor

Ceiling - Jordan De Goey

Floor - Mitch Robinson

Ceiling - Dustin Martin
Floor - Cam Zurhaar

Finn O'Sullivan

Ceiling - Patrick Dangerfield

Floor - Gary Rohan

Ceiling - bits of Neale, bits of Heeney
Floor - Aaron Hamill

Jagga Smith

Ceiling - Errol Gulden

Floor - Caleb Daniel

Ceiling - bits of McCluggage, bits of Daicos
Floor - Fisher with more pace, maybe bordering on Gaff

Sid Draper

Ceiling - Adam Treloar

Floor - Paddy Dow

Ceiling - Scully with some speed and kicking power shaved off
Floor - Hewett

Harvey Langford

Ceiling - Patrick Cripps

Floor - Will Brodie

Ceiling - Dustin Martin in concrete boots
Floor - Goddard

 

[JJBagger]

Seriously, if we end up with one of FOS, Draper, Lalor or Smith, we can’t lose. All are exceptional prospects that would add enormous value to our team. I don’t see how anyone could be upset if we end up with any of them

 

[marcmurphy3]

Just read the post, he says everything is super super hush hush but he knows all the video packages they’ve done on the players they want?

Looking forward to all of this being over with and we can just move on with the super talent we bring in

My guess is he knows about the video packages and either him or his friend are making educated guesses and elaborating with regards to the rest of the comments. The video package thing seems pretty specific to completely make up. I could be wrong though. Entertaining in either case.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Ceiling - Dustin Martin
Floor - Cam Zurhaar

Ceiling - bits of Neale, bits of Heeney
Floor - Aaron Hamill

Ceiling - bits of McCluggage, bits of Daicos
Floor - Fisher with more pace, maybe bordering on Gaff

Ceiling - Scully with some speed and kicking power shaved off
Floor - Hewett

Ceiling - Dustin Martin in concrete boots
Floor - Goddard

Thats brutal on Draper . Ceiling of Scully.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Seriously, if we end up with one of FOS, Draper, Lalor or Smith, we can’t lose. All are exceptional prospects that would add enormous value to our team. I don’t see how anyone could be upset if we end up with any of them

You don’t know Carlton supporters very well do ya ….

 

[Lace_Out]

Not sure there is any point taking Jagga with Binns on our list already having put development into him. Similar players and build.

We have moved on Carroll and Kennedy, I suspect with the plan to start giving Binns more of a go.

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[FlowersByIrene]

Yeah. Reality is we’ll be 95% certain who we’re drafting when Cal drops his final phantom draft.

His sources, intel with recruiters, list managers & player managers is second to none in the draft space.

He rarely misses.

I think he has admitted this year he feels a bit more in the dark than usual as the relatively flat top end if the draft + a lot of potential pick trades still up in the air have meant he doesn't currently have good information on the draft. This could be a year where even Cal is surprised. Particularly if North still hold Pick #2 on Draft Night.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

A guy on the Richmond board who seems to know somebody in the Tigers media department suggesting they are pulling together lots of footage of Lalor for pick 1 and none of FOS. Also, pulling together footage of Jagga, Smillie and Langford for pick 6. But by far the most work done on Lalor.

Said a bunch of other stuff too that may or may not be credible. I tend to believe that he's got a friend in the Tigers media department as doesn't seem that farfetched but may just be putting 2 and 2 together with some of his other comments. Even if they were from his friend, you'd only get so much info in the media department.

He did call the eventual Shai Bolton trade before it was finalised so got that one in the bank.

Yeah, just went over and read that post. It does kind of make sense.

Reckons the Tiggs have no interest in FOS which some posters are shooting down in flames - but may be more a case that the reason they're not putting together footage of him is because they know he won't be available at their next pick after Lalor. Which in turn suggests that they won't be trading up with Norf (which isn't surprising given their draft hand).

Unless there's a final twist in the saga, Norf will go into the draft keeping pick 3, and possibly trading for a later 1st rounder with a GWS or Sydney. Having another pick in the 1st round could also help justify reaching for Tauru at pick 2 if that's who their hell bent on.

It does appear it's starting to smell like we'll be welcoming Finn O'Sullivan to the navy blue. Which, going by media reports, is who we've been targeting all along.

 

[BigFrizz36]

Yeah. Reality is we’ll be 95% certain who we’re drafting when Cal drops his final phantom draft.

His sources, intel with recruiters, list managers & player managers is second to none in the draft space.

He rarely misses.

True , but to be fair if North trade pick 2 on the night it could throw everything out.

 

[Jimmae]

Thats brutal on Draper . Ceiling of Scully.

Peak Scully was everywhere at speed with agility and kicking power. Victim of his own success as he made his feet crumble underneath him.

Draper won't be as as fast or as clean a kick, but he has the nimbleness and want to attack the game.

 

[muzza99]

I would be totally fine with drafting Langford at pick 3.

Literally or Philosophically?

 

[reubsblues]

My gut feel is Austin (The club) have wanted Fos from the start and the reason we went so had for 3 and tbh looks highly likely it will happen giving the club would most likely know Richmond and Norths preferences with 1 and 2
If north do go early on Tauru then there are going to be some really decent sliders

 

[macky99]

My gut feel is Austin (The club) have wanted Fos from the start and the reason we went so had for 3 and tbh looks highly likely it will happen giving the club would most likely know Richmond and Norths preferences with 1 and 2
If north do go early on Tauru then there are going to be some really decent sliders

l would suggest Austin has 2-3 players in mind, as with 2 picks ahead of us he would not be certain how that will play out, still believe Richmond & North may still do a deal yet on pick 2

 

[bradfisher14]

I think if I had to characterize how I see the current top 5 by ceiling and floor

Sam Lalor

Ceiling - Dustin Martin

Floor - Mitch Robinson

Finn O'Sullivan

Ceiling - Isaac Heeney

Floor - Gary Rohan

Jagga Smith

Ceiling - Nick Daicos

Floor - Dylan Shiel (the * version)

Sid Draper

Ceiling - Partrick Dangerfield

Floor - Paddy Dow

Harvey Langford

Ceiling - Marcus Bontempelli

Floor - Matt Crouch

In terms of style and impact

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EFA IMO

 

[The Bighouse]

Just read the post, he says everything is super super hush hush but he knows all the video packages they’ve done on the players they want?

Looking forward to all of this being over with and we can just move on with the super talent we bring in

Waiting on guernsey number allocations before we can rest up..

 

[tarczonandjane]

On October 12, Yazz broke the news in the rumour file that we were getting pick #3. It was the first any of us had heard of the possibility. The post ended up being pretty much spot on.

Yazz also said the recruiting department was torn between Lalor and O’Sullivan. They felt the one we missed out on would go at pick #1.

If we take the view which seems firmly held that it is Lalor at pick #1 for Richmond, then I think Yazz has told us it is FOS at #3. Unless North drops in first, but they need their KPP.

Ps speculate away. After all, that’s what this site is for. I just think the answer has already been given to you.

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

Waiting on guernsey number allocations before we can rest up..

Pick 3 will wear #7

 

[GoBlues!]

If I remember right, Simon black wasn’t exactly quick but what a footballer…he did have a few quicker around him though.

Depends how you define quick AT.

You’re right in that Simon Black did slip to pick 31 in his draft year because most recruiters thought he wasn’t fast from a leg speed point of view. They were probably focussed on 20m sprint times..

But from a quick thinking and reaction time in a football sense, extracting the ball, evasiveness and then a quick disposal by hand/foot to a team mate, there weren’t many better than Simon Black. Just looking at some of his highlights you have to look at the slow motion replay to appreciate how quick thinking he was:



In this regard, I think Jagga shows these traits of quick thinking , evasiveness and ball extraction attributes more than the others.

 

[BlackGoanna]

I guess lm trying to say that foot speed around stoppages is a factor. I don’t disagree with the other points you made re positioning mindset etc but the athletic component does matter. The midfielder we take doesn’t need to be super quick but does need to be much better than the likes of Cripps, hewett and Kennedy.

We currently have an all time great midfielder in the centre in Cripps but yet we get flogged out of the centre at times. I believe this is partly because stoppages have become less congested and slowish midfielders are struggling to defend the extra space. If they don’t get hands to ball first they’re unable to chase effectively, apply pressure and win the ball back.


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Agree that we got caught out in different stages in the last few years, particularly in patches when we only went with 4 mids and limited rotations.

We need to get 5-6 players rotating through the midfield. Cripps, Walsh and Cerra as out FT mids. You then add 2-3 dual position players such as fwd/ mids that can pinch hit midfield, run both ways and hit the scoreboard. At the moment we really only have E. Hollands.

Was actually excited with picks 12 and 14. The likes of Berry, Haniford, Lindsay may have give us that. I haven’t completely lost faith in Durdin and Motlop to be able to play those roles, but they haven’t put it together at this stage.

At pick 3 Lalor or FOS can do the fwd/mid role. Both players likely be gone.

So I think we are drafting for best available with Smith, Langford, Draper as FT mids. They may have the game to play those roles short term but ultimately they are LT replacements for Cripps, Cerra.







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[Blue and Silver]

I want to push back a bit on Lalor = Dusty.

I just don't think he's shown anything like Dusty's kicking or accumulation.

De Goey is the same type but a step below and I think that seems more reasonable

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