Analysis 2024 National Draft

Who will be our first selection on night 2 of the Draft?

  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .

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A point that hasn't been made yet.

If it is Jagga we want and we have let it get out, when the popular narrative was that we wanted FOS, then it is seriously amateur. I know keeping it under wraps is easier said than done, but surely you attempt to show at least equal interest in 2 or 3 players, keep who's favoured within the recruitment team and tell them to keep their mouths firmly shut.

If we want Jagga and Crows want him too, they don't trade to jump us, if we manage to keep it under wraps. Missing out on our preference would be a direct consequence of letting it get out.

Not saying that's what's happening or that we won't end up with a good player regardless but it's a lesson worth learning if that's what's played out.
 
If we are happy with any of the top 5 midfielders for our pick, then we could possibly do a deal with Richmond for 6 and one of their other 1st's. Especially if Adelaide move up to 2 to get Smith.

Draft could go:
1. Rich - Lalor
2. Bris - Ashcroft (NM Bid)
3. Adel - Smith (Traded from NM)
4. Rich - O'Sullivan (Traded from Carl)
5. NM - Tauru (Traded from Adel)
6. Mel - Langford
7. Carl - Draper (Traded from Rich)

Then we could get another Top 20 talent like Hotton, Berry, Whitlock etc.

Or we would just draft FOS.

Just a thought.
 

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marcmurphy3 said:
A point that hasn't been made yet.

If it is Jagga we want and we have let it get out, when the popular narrative was that we wanted FOS, then it is seriously amateur. I know keeping it under wraps is easier said than done, but surely you attempt to show at least equal interest in 2 or 3 players, keep who's favoured within the recruitment team and tell them to keep their mouths firmly shut.

If we want Jagga and Crows want him too, they don't trade to jump us, if we manage to keep it under wraps. Missing out on our preference would be a direct consequence of letting it get out.

Not saying that's what's happening or that we won't end up with a good player regardless but it's a lesson worth learning if that's what's played out.
Click to expand...
Yeah, it doesn’t quite add up.
Different media have linked us to 4 different players in the last week, which makes sense, because we would be doing proper due diligence on the top 5.

What we know is that at pick 3, we will get at worst our 3rd choice.
Given the potential of different players going at 1 and 2, I’d be pretty surprised (and completely dismayed) if our actual order of preference leaked.
 
Andypooh23 said:
If we are happy with any of the top 5 midfielders for our pick, then we could possibly do a deal with Richmond for 6 and one of their other 1st's. Especially if Adelaide move up to 2 to get Smith.

Draft could go:
1. Rich - Lalor
2. Bris - Ashcroft (NM Bid)
3. Adel - Smith (Traded from NM)
4. Rich - O'Sullivan (Traded from Carl)
5. NM - Tauru (Traded from Adel)
6. Mel - Langford
7. Carl - Draper (Traded from Rich)

Then we could get another Top 20 talent like Hotton, Berry, Whitlock etc.

Or we would just draft FOS.

Just a thought.
Click to expand...

But what is the deal the Tigers are taking here? 3 (now 4) & 38 for 6 (now 7) & 24? If the Tigers are cold on trading 6 & 11 for 2 and F1/2 with North, then how is our offer appealing? And proposing the deal live on the night surely shows our hand... that we know they like FOS and we'd only be sliding because we think we still get our man 6/7. Therefore, Tigers say no, we take Draper anyway and they get FOS anyway (unless Dees would go FOS before Langford, which I doubt)
 
marcmurphy3 said:
A point that hasn't been made yet.

If it is Jagga we want and we have let it get out, when the popular narrative was that we wanted FOS, then it is seriously amateur. I know keeping it under wraps is easier said than done, but surely you attempt to show at least equal interest in 2 or 3 players, keep who's favoured within the recruitment team and tell them to keep their mouths firmly shut.

If we want Jagga and Crows want him too, they don't trade to jump us, if we manage to keep it under wraps. Missing out on our preference would be a direct consequence of letting it get out.

Not saying that's what's happening or that we won't end up with a good player regardless but it's a lesson worth learning if that's what's played out.
Click to expand...

I dont think any club has leaked anything. The media and fans are just speculating based on tid bits from player managers, who clubs are interviewing, what they guess each clubs list needs are etc. etc.

And if a club has leaked anything, it is on purpose to try and shake some trees
 
Smegger said:
Is that random or order of preference Arr0w?

Asking because it happens to be my top 5 in order of preference.
Click to expand...

I will do a list of 30 or so, of how I rank this year, purely best available, not specifically us

Lalor
Langford
Jagga
Draper
FOS

But it's a narrow range and would be satisfied with any of them
 
I believe there's a reasonably clear top 10. If anyone else comes into the first ~7 players picked, I'll be mildly surprised. Some may fall a little further back, but not much. Tauru if North don't pick him, Smillie if Richmond don't pick him with their second pick, and Lombard just because he's going to GC in any case, likewise the bid on Ashcroft might fall out of the top 3 or 4. Here's my ranking, for what it's worth, which isn't much!

Lalor
Smith
Ashcroft
O'Sullivan
Lombard
Draper
Langford
Tauru
Smillie
Reid

Most don't have Lombard in their top 5, but I think he's gonna be a star, and fully deserves to be in contention with the other top candidates. He's just fallen under the radar a bit for obvious reasons. There are others with pretensions of a top 10 pick - Allan, Armstrong, Travaglia, Kako, Hotton, Lindsay chief amongst them - any of these making top 10 wouldn't be a surprise, but I very much doubt any would be in the top ~7, whereas any of the 10 players listed above could be called out in the top 5 without causing too much of a stir.

What's particularly interesting about this year is that I very much doubt that every club has the same, or even similar ranking lists. Richmond probably have Lalor at the top, Adelaide maybe Draper, North Tauru, Carlton FOS. And particular club needs may arrange this group of 10 differently for each club. Such is the evenness of the group. I really don't think there's a huge gap between 1 and 10 on this list.

Unlike, for instance, last year, where Harley would have been at the top of everyone's list. And McKercher/Walter 2 and 3 on most.

It's been a while since we've had a year like this, and I'll be very interested over the next few days to see how it pans out.
 
Lukeblueboy said:
Absolutely ground breaking from Ralph!
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HereComesJuddy said:
So just YouTube highlights. Yeah they all look good don’t they
Click to expand...

The videos I like are those that show every time the player touches the ball during a game, clangers and all.

There are heaps of those videos available for all the players mentioned in this thread.

Not just highlights.
 
Blueyourmyboy!! said:
Alot of choice. Definitely need another ruck/fwd to develop under tdk.
Click to expand...
I think our list needs a genuine forward/ruck to develop as well, i think O’Keefe besides his disappointing hamstring injury has been developing well for such a young player, but he looks more of a promising ruckman who can at times rest forward…
 
Last edited:
Wanted to take a different look at who from Top 4 mids based on what we have - assuming Lalor is gone



I am old school and the game may have passed me by - I work on the basis you can’t have 3 inside mids (accumulators) but need a mix ie 1+2+3 below (note DeKoning adds to this but Pitt doesn’t help)

In light of the fact we have the following in black where do the new recruits fit possibly - I know some would disagree with my assertions in black but let’s debate - we have until Wednesday


1) Inside Mids (accumulator)
Cripps (29) - this is his window, elite accumulator but poor in the other direction
- Smith - this is him in U18s but can he extract like that in AFL - can he play small forward initially for a few years and then take over from Cripps
- Langford - is he Cripps heir apparent and plays forward 50% game and 20-30% to cover Cripps - better disposal but can’t play both in middle??

2) Defensive Mids (wins own ball but locks down other mids)
Cerra (25)
Hewitt (28)
Lord (19)
Ben Camporeale - Is this where Ben would be seen - they say he is competitive and has defensive traits


3) Inside Out Mid (accumulator but good run both ways)
Walsh (24) - can play wing
- Draper - said to be good defensively, is this a fair assessment or is he inside only - but can he play small forward

3) Outside Mid (mainly receiver - good connector with forwards)
Docherty (31) - can play wing but not many years left
E Hollands (22) - can play half forward
FOS - is he more outside - definitely talked up for his connection and can play forward

Note I have assumed we picked up Ben Camporeale

Based on this I have no idea still

I think the club is choosing between FOS and Draper as they want run outside and in that case I would choose FOS as he has shown he can play forward as well

But that means he is fighting with Kemp, Moir, Williams and E Hollands and I rate them more likely to succeed then our current crop of small forwards



Me personally I prefer Smith or Langford, accumulators are less likely to be busts and Smith would be a better fit short term due to my perception he could play small forward (50%) and be a real contributor in a place of real need

As an ex accumulator who didn’t make it due to my disposal skills, long term I would pick Langford, I have fell in love with his ability to move it on quickly (we lack that) and to advantage of forwards (H & C would thrive)
 
marcmurphy3 said:
A point that hasn't been made yet.

If it is Jagga we want and we have let it get out, when the popular narrative was that we wanted FOS, then it is seriously amateur. I know keeping it under wraps is easier said than done, but surely you attempt to show at least equal interest in 2 or 3 players, keep who's favoured within the recruitment team and tell them to keep their mouths firmly shut.

If we want Jagga and Crows want him too, they don't trade to jump us, if we manage to keep it under wraps. Missing out on our preference would be a direct consequence of letting it get out.

Not saying that's what's happening or that we won't end up with a good player regardless but it's a lesson worth learning if that's what's played out.
Click to expand...
Maybe it's double blind and we dont want Jagga, we actually want FOS.
Or maybe even a triple blind because we aren't after either... 🤔🤫
 
HereComesJuddy said:
So just YouTube highlights. Yeah they all look good don’t they
Click to expand...
I've watched as many games "live" as I could this year. Sat through all the champs games, the Academy games, some of the SANFL games that were livestreamed on YouTube due to Ben+Lucas and many of the Coates League games (mainly Sandy games, some in person due to 2 students of mine playing for them this year) + All of the Coates League finals games. Watched the 16s rep games with Cody Walker + some of his games for Echuca and the Futures Games of the 17s stuff with Ison and Gresham.

To suggest I only watch YouTube highlights packages is just rude. Ive often posted match summaries in this very thread with individual players wrap ups and who I think would best suit out needs at our picks.

Have also said for months and months before we got pick 3 that I think Drapers the best player in the draft for Carltons needs even though we were ultra unlikely to be a chance of selecting him.

So no I don't just watch YouTube clips champ
 
WalshistheGOAT said:
I've watched as many games "live" as I could this year. Sat through all the champs games, the Academy games, some of the SANFL games that were livestreamed on YouTube due to Ben+Lucas and many of the Coates League games (mainly Sandy games, some in person due to 2 students of mine playing for them this year) + All of the Coates League finals games. Watched the 16s rep games with Cody Walker + some of his games for Echuca and the Futures Games of the 17s stuff with Ison and Gresham.

To suggest I only watch YouTube highlights packages is just rude. Ive often posted match summaries in this very thread with individual players wrap ups and who I think would best suit out needs at our picks.

Have also said for months and months before we got pick 3 that I think Drapers the best player in the draft for Carltons needs even though we were ultra unlikely to be a chance of selecting him.

So no I don't just watch YouTube clips champ
Click to expand...
Geez you’re a bit sensitive pulling out the champ comment. But that’s cool.

It’s not rude that I think seeing Draper play live isn’t the same as YouTube clips. I’d say it’s a fair comment.

You don’t like when people don’t view Draper the same as you and you’ve made your point known on plenty of occasions. We all know who you prefer and I have no issue with that nor do I want to change your mind.

My views are my views and from my time seeing him play, again, I don’t think he is a pick 3. Would I be upset if we took him, no, but I’d hope we don’t 👍
 
PezzDogg95 said:
This is an interesting one, as we could hypothetically be a chance to nab Draper with a later pick if circumstances prevail. Its a big if, but this could be one scenario that may play out:

Pick 1 - Rich - Sam Lalor
Pick 2 - Adel - Jagga Smith (trade up with north as mooted)

Pick 3 will likely be FOS, but to whom is the question... With Pick 4 likely to be Tauru to North, we would have to weigh up whether Melbourne would prefer Langford or Draper at 5 (or perhaps even Smillie), as there could be a possibility of sliding down to 6 to nab Draper if the Dees go with Langford.

Not sure why, but I just see Langford as a perfect fit for Melbourne, particularly with the recent trade requests from Oliver and Trac, and Viney not getting any younger - he would be my pick if I was them (or Smillie). I think Draper makes less sense for them since Trent Rivers move into midfield this season as well.

If Richmond are willing to trade up from 6 (and probably a Smillie pick) to pick 3 for FOS, I'd be looking at something along the lines of 3, 38 & 63 for 6, 20 & 23, which after bids looks more like 3, 40 & 52 for 7, 24 & 27, which is pretty fair in terms of draft points. Tigers could get some mature agers like Davidson and Bice for the later picks, so they don't overdo taking youngsters, while also nabbing FOS and preserving their other top 11 picks.

We could end up with Draper at #6, and take two more picks in the 1st round (my preferences being Harry Oliver and Ollie Hannaford - each to their own, all hypothetical), before a bid match on Ben Camporeale.

Think Clancy Dennis and Lucas Camporeale will be available in the rookie draft, otherwise we can always shift to a 38-4 list structure to take them on the senior list at the ND (although unlikely given salary cap benefits of additional rookies).

Haul of Draper, Oliver, Hannaford, B Campo, L Campo (rookie), Dennis (rookie), DGB (ssp) & Duffy (cat B) would be pretty amazing. Would require a risk of trading down to Pick 6 (7 after Aschroft bid), but it could pay off.

The Adelaide-North trade watch will be very interesting and could set a chain reaction off. Also the trade makes a lot of sense for North, given Richmonds coyness for Pick #2, and safeguards against the "threat" of Melbourne at 5 for Tauru
Click to expand...
Bad trade for us IMO, and I'd be taking Smillie instead of Draper. I'd be hoping to turn the trade into Smillie and Hotton, but waiting to see how it all shakes out in terms of where Hotton will be taken.

Currently anywhere between 9 and 20 you would think, but the later he projects, the more it opens up the chance we could turn 3 and 38 into 3 quality players.

If I were Carlton I'd absolutely trade out for Richmond's next pick and one of their 2 after that, should Smith be off the board. Even if it means picking between Draper and Langford.
 
Jimmae said:
Bad trade for us IMO, and I'd be taking Smillie instead of Draper. I'd be hoping to turn the trade into Smillie and Hotton, but waiting to see how it all shakes out in terms of where Hotton will be taken.

Currently anywhere between 9 and 20 you would think, but the later he projects, the more it opens up the chance we could turn 3 and 38 into 3 quality players.

If I were Carlton I'd absolutely trade out for Richmond's next pick and one of their 2 after that, should Smith be off the board. Even if it means picking between Draper and Langford.
Click to expand...
l believe you are going to be disappointed we won't be trading pick 3
How does Smillie help us, we have Cripps.
 
Austin has said the club is looking for speed and run which suggests that Draper and FOS are in our sights.

But Langford is an interesting proposition - he would definitely lift the standard of forward entries to our key forwards with his penetrating kicks and generate more goal scoring opportunities for H and CC.

I wonder if Austin is welded to the idea that the player must have super sonic speed. If he thinks Langford is the next Bontempelli then I wouldn’t be surprised if he calls out Langfords name on Wed.
 

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