Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

Broadcast Guide - Live Draft ...

1st Round tonight (20th Nov) from 7.00PM
2nd Round tomorrow night (21st Nov) from 7.00PM

FoxFooty (Ch 504)
Kayo
foxfooty.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

AFL National Draft Tracker - AFL.com.au

View all the picks as they happen at the AFL National Draft

www.afl.com.au

 

[Chamber JJJ]

 

[HyphensBack]

You are jumping off the wrong horse

I like what Elijah brought this year but he was a little inconsistent and if we select Langford, Lalor or FOS I suspect Elijah will have to step up his game to remain Best 23

Any of those 3 will need to play forward and mid (I think they would be selected on basis of being better at them Elijah)

 

[teddy-hopkins]

Knightmare's top 10


View attachment 2166937

That guy is hopeless. Was certain Lukosius was the second coming of Wayne Carey.

Draper at 8 FFS?

 

[9874123]

Right after the trade period ended I had Draper a little ahead of Smith and then a gap to Lalor and then FOS. Now my convictions have only deepened. I will trust the club on whoever they pick up but Draper is clearly the best prospect to my eyes and Jagga is clearly second.

Go back and watch JHF pre-draft videos. He is stronger and tougher than Draper, and a much better mark (not a knock on Draper's toughness, JHF is just next level in that area) but Draper has him covered in contest work, disposal, and defensive intent. He also manages to get more use out of his speed, due to his ability to win the ground ball combined with his agility.

I don't really see the issue with Draper's kicking, he lacks insane penetration and seems hesitant to kick on the run but I certainly wouldn't say its a weakness, in fact I would say its above average for a pure inside mid.




I want to put my thoughts on the record as a bit of a draft capsule so I can laugh at myself in a couple years but this is how I see it now. Tiers are ranking in order.

Tier 1
Draper

Tier 2
Smith

Tier 3
Lalor
Fos
Lombard
Ashcroft

Tier 4
Reid
Armstrong
Kako
Hotton
Lindsay
Hannaford


Players who surely wont be picked in the first round that I like
Marshall
Ough
Gerryn
Barrat



You'll notice that there are a lot of highly talented players that I haven't mentioned. That isn't because I don't think that they can become good players, but if I were a list manager, they'd be in the "I'll let someone else take them" bucket. For example: Smillie, Langford, Bo Allan etc. would never be players I would pick because I like some lower ranked players (eg Reid & Armstrong) better than them.

 

[JustOneTime]

I think it is important to provide greater focus to clubs 'needs' over best available 'within a 3 pick range'. You can't drift too far from best available but you need to identify needs which allows the players to shine.

No surprise Beau Dowler

Beau Dowler

Age

37

Ht

196cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.5

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.4

4star

No current season stats available

D

8.6

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

and Mitch Thorpe failed at the Hawks after they blooded Franklin and Roughead 12-24 months ahead of these two. Zero opportunity. Roughy/Buddy had a headstart physically and learning their craft.

Dow despite his speed is an inside mid along with Stocker. Same for Setterfield. Yes, they aren't great players but they were dead before they started with Cripps in play as a dominant inside mid and our captain.

Steele a middling fringe player at GWS who didn't need him goes to the Saints and kills it as an inside mid. There are so many examples of where 'needs' plays out and makes the player.

Cripps and the rest of our midfield will be happy with all names associated with us. But jeez there is an opportunity for Draper in our midfield to help us on 'defensive transition'. This midfield in their loss reviews would all value highly a draper making him fit right from the off.

FoS is a need (inside 50s/goal assists) too so i don't mind him as well. I have him secondary based on needs because this club is intent on only using Cripps as the mid/fwd role when there are others with better disposal and decision making. They are wedded to Cripps meaning FoS 'could' end up an ok half fwd rather than a 'gun' mid/fwd. Simply a risk of this happening. Doesn't mean it will happen, i agree.

Jagga and Harvey are great and fill needs in general, but more in time as they replace others. Yes, highlight vid reviews only. At least i admit it.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

270 odd pages shown in one picture.

Too many 'kids' and not enough 'parents' but I get the point.

 

[teddy-hopkins]

At pick 3 I want the best player available, if it’s Sid I’ll be very happy! I just don’t want us to pick a player because he is fast

Draper averaged 24.8 disposals, 12 contested possessions and 3.8 tackles per game for SA at the carnival as a 17 y.o. 2 years ago.

Averaged 21 disposals (eight contested) at 76.2% efficiency and 3.8 clearances at this year's champs after returning from injury just before.

On his best days O'Sullivan generally has 20 disposals. Did not make the AA team this year.

More concerns around FOS than Draper for me but maybe Finn has the higher upside given he's a bit taller?

But how do you split guys at this level? It's a hair between about 5 of them. Passing up Jagga would be a big risk and Langford looks like a mini Bont. Tough job AFL talent scouting.

 

[JJBagger]

Why the Elijah criticism all of a sudden? Thought he, like most of the team, was sensational when we were winning. He trailed off at the end, like 90% of the team, but that doesn’t suddenly mean he’s no good. He’s an elite runner, takes risks, and has a bit of X factor about him, and showed plenty for a bloke that had played 14 games prior to this season.

Everyone was very high on him all season too. I know a lot people may be bored, but rewriting history isn’t the way

 

[sweethoney]

Luke Shuey won the rising star in his third year having played 6 games in his first two years on the list.

Kai Lohmann just starred in a flag after playing 8 games in his first two years on the lions list.

Plenty of examples of the opposite as well with players who burned brightly early but flamed out just as quickly. Jayden Stevenson, Chad Wiegard, Lewis Taylor etc.

Dempsey winning the rising star in his 3rd year this season too

 

[Revenant1965]

I've actually cooled on Elijah a little bit. He tailed off later in the year IMO. His lack of pace and urgency at times took me from excited to cautious. Has the skill and poise, but I'm not counting on him to be an A grader just yet.

I know this is a ND thread, but haven't EH and OH employed a running coach like H and Cripps? Am expecting a step up from EH this year...

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

You are jumping off the wrong horse

Not jumping off. Just not betting on him winning the cup just yet.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Fox Footy Phantom

Blues taking Jagga Smith, Crows taking Langford. Draper sliding to the Saints at 8.

What a topsy turvy draft year this is.

 

[TrueQldBlue]

Fox Footy Phantom

Blues taking Jagga Smith, Crows taking Langford. Draper sliding to the Saints at 8.

What a topsy turvy draft year this is.

And SEN has Jagga going to Richmond at pick 1.


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[BlueAbroad]

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

I really think this entire draft period is a fascinating psycho emotional watch.


Following the finals series, we would’ve been falling over ourselves at the thought of being able to add any one of Sid Draper, Jagga Smith, FOS, Harvey Langford to our midfield.

One month later, and now that they are available to us, we sit back and try to point out every flaw that each of them have to convince ourselves not to add them.

“Drapers kicking on the run isn’t great”

“Jagga, goes backwards too much and doesn’t take enough ground”

“FOS seems too flakey”

“Langford isn’t a POD for our midfield and isn’t quick enough”

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

If the selection was purely on needs Draper looks the one.

Question is for Pick 3 do we go purely needs or simply the best player?

Love to be a fly on the wall for the discussions between Austin, Voss and the recruiting team and hear their true thoughts

"best" or 'better' is very subjective...

Not possible to say Smith or Draper is 'better' than a FOS or Lalor...

You can say (100% factually) that Draper's skill set fits our needs very well and that his exposed form at senior level suggest he will start round 1 and be a significant contributor from the get go.

Lalor is a forward/mid, FOS similar... has to be some doubts on FOS imo, injury wise...

Smith - I read all this stuff he could play as a small forward? Really, any history there?

C. Durdin says hi.

Draper for me.

 

[ctwenty1]

And SEN has Jagga going to Richmond at pick 1.


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In that instance can’t see lalor falling past 2 whoever has the pick, so likely choice between draper and FOS

 

[Arr0w]

I think Elijah is a lock and will have a better year in 2025

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Going by vibes, predictions and rumours, I think our preference order is:

Smith
FOS
Draper/Langford tied.

1. Richmond Lalor/FOS
2. North FOS, Adelaide Smith, Richmond Lalor/FOS
3. Carlton Smith/FOS

So we will get Smith if the Crows don't jump us, and if they do then we get FOS. If FOS and Smith are gone, I have no clue where we rate Lalor, but I'm thinking below Draper and Langford.

Are we concerned about Draper's back? Or potential go home factor for the die-hard Crows supporter? Probably not overly, but they are still half ticks in the 'cons' column.

I'd be good with Smith. Most natural footballer of the lot. His vision and ability to take the highest percentage option every time is unmatched for mine.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

It's hard to get invested in this pick as most of us are convinced SOS is going to screw us on Ben's bid, or if not, Port will right before us.

 

[marcmurphy3]

And SEN has Jagga going to Richmond at pick 1.


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Can ignore that phantom. Not based on any intel. Its just who the journo thinks clubs should take.

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

"best" or 'better' is very subjective...

Not possible to say Smith or Draper is 'better' than a FOS or Lalor...

You can say (100% factually) that Draper's skill set fits our needs very well and that his exposed form at senior level suggest he will start round 1 and be a significant contributor from the get go.

Lalor is a forward/mid, FOS similar... has to be some doubts on FOS imo, injury wise...

Smith - I read all this stuff he could play as a small forward? Really, any history there?

C. Durdin says hi.

Draper for me.

I'm curious why there are doubts on FOS injury wise, when Draper has the pars defect concern?

 

[The Old Dark Navy's]

Can ignore that phantom. Not based on any intel. Its just who the journo thinks clubs should take.

That's what I'm thinking. Fox Footy is using actual late mail ... for what that's worth.

 

[Arr0w]

Just from a couple whispers

Club rates Lalor & FOS

Next level, Smith Draper, Langford (no idea of the pecking order)

 

[TrueQldBlue]

In that instance can’t see lalor falling past 2 whoever has the pick, so likely choice between draper and FOS

I don't know why but I just don't want FOS....
Can't put my finger on it why...just ...feel it

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