Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[Stamos]

My feeling is that all of that stuff is just posturing and Richmond will swoop in on draft night.

So just a feeling, based on nothing?

 

[bradfisher14]

So just a feeling, based on nothing?

Always - I am no ITK. Hence why I asked you as you seem to have more insight than me on this stuff.

 

[Stamos]

Always - I am no ITK. Hence why I asked you as you seem to have more insight than me on this stuff.

Everything out there says Richmond will not be trading for #2.

 

[TrueQldBlue]

I f have the same feeling about Draper

Fair enough.....let's take JAGGA

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[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

1. Lalor
2. FOS (Nth, Rich) Smith (Adelaide)
3. Smith / FOS (Carlton)
4. Draper (Adelaide)

 

[Blue and Silver]

Jagga or FOS by the look.

Adds a dynamic to our ball movement regardless.

I like Draper a lot, but I think that this top group is hard to split

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[BlueAbroad]

 

[GoBlues!]

Think he would also make for a decent HB

Lucas fininshed top ten at the combine in both the standing and running vertical jump tests. Watching his replays saw him use that jump a few times to outmark opponents. Would make a very good half back.

 

[ABigOlDoofus]

For mine, our midfield needs more "hurt" factor, currently Cripps is the only player other teams would be sweating about if he got to 25-30ish touches. Walsh, Lord, Hewett, and to a lesser extent Cerra don't hurt the opposing team and threaten to take the game apart if they get 25-30ish touches. Fantastic players and play their role wonderfully, but need to add someone else with more damaging possession or kicks more goals.

Langford is my number 1 choice for exactly this. You watch how 25 touches of Jordan Dawson

12

Jordan Dawson

Age

27

Ht

191cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.0

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

5.7

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

D

15.7

4star

K

10.9

4star

HB

4.9

3star

M

2.9

3star

T

2.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

D

11.8

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

5.0

5star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.6

3star

absolutely turns the game on it's head with his kicking and decision making, and I see Langford playing more in that mould than Bont as some have suggested.

FOS if he pans out would be ideal as well, but the inability to find the footy really, really scares me. Lots of players have been drafted based on their tools despite being able to find the ball in juniors and haven't panned out (Setterfield and Rayner come to mind, even though Rayner has been pretty good the last year or so).

Smith I really rate, think he's got that winner's mentality and puts in the hard yards, but not a great fit for our midfield. Don't really need another accumulator with low hurt factor at this stage.

Draper I also really like, disposal worries me but is a leader through and through, plays hard, and provides a POD in our midfield with his speed.

Currently my order of preference is Langford - Draper - FOS - Smith, but will be happy with any of them.

 

[marcmurphy3]

1. Lalor
2. FOS (Nth, Rich) Smith (Adelaide)
3. Smith / FOS (Carlton)
4. Draper (Adelaide)

I take from that our preference order is:
1. Smith
2. FOS
3. Draper

I wonder where Lalor would fit into that if available?

 

[Stamos]

Walsh, and to a lesser extent Cerra don't hurt the opposing team and threaten to take the game apart if they get 25-30ish touches.

I think this is really underrating their impact, and probably focussing too much on the games they were underdone.

 

[tarczonandjane]

1. Lalor
2. FOS (Nth, Rich) Smith (Adelaide)
3. Smith / FOS (Carlton)
4. Draper (Adelaide)

Thanks for the inside word!

All I will say is that if North stick with pick 2 and draft FOS, then they really need a list management intervention.

So my view is that all eyes are on Richmond and Adelaide to see which player we end up with.

 

[Blue__Balls]

For mine, our midfield needs more "hurt" factor, currently Cripps is the only player other teams would be sweating about if he got to 25-30ish touches. Walsh, Lord, Hewett, and to a lesser extent Cerra don't hurt the opposing team and threaten to take the game apart if they get 25-30ish touches. Fantastic players and play their role wonderfully, but need to add someone else with more damaging possession or kicks more goals.

Langford is my number 1 choice for exactly this. You watch how 25 touches of Jordan Dawson absolutely turns the game on it's head with his kicking and decision making, and I see Langford playing more in that mould than Bont as some have suggested.

FOS if he pans out would be ideal as well, but the inability to find the footy really, really scares me. Lots of players have been drafted based on their tools despite being able to find the ball in juniors and haven't panned out (Setterfield and Rayner come to mind, even though Rayner has been pretty good the last year or so).

Smith I really rate, think he's got that winner's mentality and puts in the hard yards, but not a great fit for our midfield. Don't really need another accumulator with low hurt factor at this stage.

Draper I also really like, disposal worries me but is a leader through and through, plays hard, and provides a POD in our midfield with his speed.

Currently my order of preference is Langford - Draper - FOS - Smith, but will be happy with any of them.

It's an interesting way to view it.

Personally, I kind of think that those looking at "hurt factor" are perhaps a little limited or narrow in the lens they're considering it. It's interpreted as the player who, through their own actions, will have the most profound direct impact on, presumably, the scoreboard. Draper is rated highly here because people see him streaming out of the middle and either slotting goals or spotting up forwards. Langford is rated highly here because people see him delivering pinpoint passes through the corridor and forward line, or clunking one-grab marks and dobbing goals himself. FOS probably somewhere between the two - forward craft mixed with midfield agility and good disposal.

Honestly - the best players in the game might display those individual heroics a few times a game, tops, and they don't always result in goals.

I don't see why people discount the "accumulator" in Smith. He's not Tom Mitchell or one of the Crouch boys, getting cheap one-twos while flatfooted at the back of a contest. His personal metres gained may not be as high as others, but when he gets the pill he finds space, and he consistently puts it to the advantage of a teammate in space. If he's releasing the ball out to Cerra, Walsh, Hollands who can themselves then carry it 10-15m before picking out a forward target then we're better off. And on transition play, Smith is busy. He's not satisfied with giving it off and then bailing on the play, he'll run alongside for an extra handball receive, or to lay a shepherd, he'll draw a tackler himself before dishing off to his teammates. He's not the sexy "watch me run through 3 opponents, take a few running bounces and then put it through post-height from 50m" type, but someone like Draper will only do that once in a blue moon regardless. Smith is the bloke who 25-30 times a game is involved in a positive passage of play, where Carlton come out with the ball in an advantageous position. He's a team player. Not saying others aren't, but he embodies it. He's a force multiplier who brings others into the game, and often.

 

[marcmurphy3]

1. Lalor
2. FOS (Nth, Rich) Smith (Adelaide)
3. Smith / FOS (Carlton)
4. Draper (Adelaide)

Do you reckon we'd take Lalor ahead of any of the 3 we have been linked to (Smith, FOS, Draper) if he was available?

 

[C4[2]Yo`DooR]

Do you reckon we'd take Lalor ahead of any of the 3 we have been linked to (Smith, FOS, Draper) if he was available?

I’m really not sure.

I’ve always worked off the assumption he’d be off the board.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

is a small accumulator. Id say his hurt factor is pretty high.

 

[marcmurphy3]

Sorry, but I’m really not sure.

I’ve always worked off the assumption he’d be off the board.

No worries. Thats fair enough. Club probably has too.

 

[koutashoulda1_1]

One could argue that for team balance (which I’m pretty doubtful you use as the rationale when using the number 3 pick) we’ d want a player who can play in a 2nd position.

For immediate impact, need to be clean, quick footed and a good decision maker. Allows HBF as second position a la Daicos, Sheezel, or HFF like Ashcroft.
Reckon FOS or Langford/Smith suits this comparison best. FOS and Langford forward skills elevates them a bit imo

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[McConville]

Lachie Neale is a small accumulator. Id say his hurt factor is pretty high.

I was just about to say exactly the same thing. I wonder what everyone would be saying about Neale if he was in this draft?

 

[Lukeblueboy]

Imo
It’s all good getting a player that can win the ball and attack. But even more important is that the player we add is more a quicker stepped player than not, so when the oppo win the ball he can put them under near immediate pressure/run them down/harass ect.
ATM, we don’t really have this aspect in our midfield.
Need to balance it up a little more. And also add some of the above types through the midfield from within the four walls. (Hopefully a Billy Wilson,durds, mots, doc, Cowan ect)

 

[koutashoulda1_1]

My order - based on ceiling and perceived risk to translating to AFL

1: Langford - quality ball movement, love how moves it on quick to forwards advantage, he is evasive, capable of playing forward, marks well, not quick, but reasonable endurance, down side might be incompatible with Cripps in middle, swap at half forward and may extend Cripps
(high ceiling - low risk)




2: Smith - ball magnet, smooth mover, I would love to see him early years 50:50 in middle and forward (footy IQ could help us up forward) appears to have focused on not just padding stats but being more effective, how does game translate to AFL - is he big enough (VFL looked okay)

(high ceiling - low risk)

3: Lalor - a bull, forward who can get his own ball in the middle, strong mark, is he Petracca like? (if so then happy if he falls to us)
(very high ceiling but low/med risk)

4: Draper - consistent performer, strong thru contest and appears to be a two way player, SANFL form was good - game should translate to AFL, injury concern?
(high ceiling - low/med risk (injury?))

5: FOS - elite underage midfielder who was inconsistent due to injury, strong mark, connector to forwards (high ceiling but medium risk)

Good way of looking at it

Was thinking of a decision tree type approach based on who is available.

FOS if available.

If not FOS, then Lalor if available.

If neither of those, then Langford vs Draper vs Smith.

I like Langford for his risk profile and immediate impact. Smith a bit light framewise atm, but seems Merret like or better. Draper has a Cripps like, golden boy leadership quality about him. Cant see him settling for mediocrity, just worried about his apparent lack of a second position vs our needs.

Would be happy with any of them though.

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[Christou2Kouta]

It's an interesting way to view it.

Personally, I kind of think that those looking at "hurt factor" are perhaps a little limited or narrow in the lens they're considering it. It's interpreted as the player who, through their own actions, will have the most profound direct impact on, presumably, the scoreboard. Draper is rated highly here because people see him streaming out of the middle and either slotting goals or spotting up forwards. Langford is rated highly here because people see him delivering pinpoint passes through the corridor and forward line, or clunking one-grab marks and dobbing goals himself. FOS probably somewhere between the two - forward craft mixed with midfield agility and good disposal.

Honestly - the best players in the game might display those individual heroics a few times a game, tops, and they don't always result in goals.

I don't see why people discount the "accumulator" in Smith. He's not Tom Mitchell or one of the Crouch boys, getting cheap one-twos while flatfooted at the back of a contest. His personal metres gained may not be as high as others, but when he gets the pill he finds space, and he consistently puts it to the advantage of a teammate in space. If he's releasing the ball out to Cerra, Walsh, Hollands who can themselves then carry it 10-15m before picking out a forward target then we're better off. And on transition play, Smith is busy. He's not satisfied with giving it off and then bailing on the play, he's run alongside for an extra handball receive, or to lay a shepherd, he'll draw a tackler himself before dishing off to his teammates. He's not the sexy "watch me run through 3 opponents, take a few running bounces and then put it through post-height from 50m" type, but someone like Draper will only do that once in a blue moon regardless. Smith is the bloke who 25-30 times a game is involved in a positive passage of play, where Carlton come out with the ball in an advantageous position. He's a team player. Not saying others aren't, but he embodies it. He's a force multiplier who brings others into the game, and often.

Exactly how I view Smith. I see him adding so much value in both clearances and transition footy.

Like when we drafted Marc Murphy but instead he’ll be surrounded by a well led and mature group of seasoned AFL footballers.


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[SkyhorseTamer]

I was just about to say exactly the same thing. I wonder what everyone would be saying about Neale if he was in this draft?

Considering he was drafted pick 57 or smth. Probably not much.

 

[marcmurphy3]

I was just about to say exactly the same thing. I wonder what everyone would be saying about Neale if he was in this draft?

Too small. Not enough hurt factor. Limited upside.

 

[Stamos]

Whomever we end up drafting at 3, I just want to see 2 things from them:
1. They play their entire career at Carlton
2. They challenge Michael Tuck's Premiership record

Surely not too much to ask