Analysis 2024 National Draft

[Aphrodite]

 

[VainGlorious]

Finally made a decision.

I’ve landed on Jagga Smith (he’s ok, just some minor bruising).

 

[Sharks On A Plane]

Does seem like my information around Draper may be off the mark, would trust Cal on Smith being our guy as he rarely misses with the early picks, this close to the draft.

 

[Arr0w]

Does seem like my information around Draper may be off the mark, would trust Cal on Smith being our guy as he rarely misses with the early picks, this close to the draft.

I still wouldn't rule out Draper

 

[new_blue]

Expanding on this - thought it might be interesting to consider whether there were any consistent traits among those top 5 picks who didn't pan out.

2010 - Harley Bennell, Jared Polec
2011 - Matt Buntine
2012 - Jonathan O'Rourke, Jimmy Toumpas
2013 - no outright busts, Jack Billings definitely hanging on by the skin of his teeth
2014 - Jarrod Pickett
2015 - Josh Schache
2016 - Will Setterfield
2017 - Paddy Dow
2018 - no outright busts, Lukosius, Rankine and King underwhelming vs expectations
2019 - Dylan Stephens
2020 - Will Phillips(?)
2021 - outstanding top 5
2022 - Elijah Tsatas
2023 - too early to call

Not sure there's a consistent common thread, but a few cautionary tales. You probably don't want to gamble on a highly skilled player who lacks physicality or intensity, nor do you want to reach for a niche position of need (GWS more guilty of this with their bounty of high picks).

Based on those characteristics - FOS potentially the bigger risk, he's the one with athleticism and skills but maybe a bit too laconic and easy-going with how he plays. The only one from the above list who fails purely on shit disposal is Tsatas, and I don't think Draper is anywhere near as bad as him, even if he's comparatively slightly less classy than the others this year.

I think it’s due to their level of competitiveness and will to outwardly push themselves to succeed.

Think it may have been the current Lions recruiter who said that the no.1 thing he looks for in a draftee is competitiveness because you can’t teach that.

 

[Crippa#9]

I'm team FOS but heard the other day that Carlton might actually prefer Jagga because of a few reasons including what a young Cody Walker offers which may influence our decision...

*Jagga is considered more of a 'leader' than FOS and the real professional, most eager to improve out of the two.
*FOS more dynamic, hurts more around goal but can go missing in games.
*Cody Walker plays more the FOS style so Carlton may have the longer term lens on by adding Jagga followed by Cody in a couple of years.

 

[Arr0w]

Clubs now use psychologists in interviews, but its never foolproof

 

[CrippaTheGoat9]

I'm team FOS but heard the other day that Carlton might actually prefer Jagga because of a few reasons including what a young Cody Walker offers which may influence our decision...

*Jagga is considered more of a 'leader' than FOS and the real professional, most eager to improve out of the two.
*FOS more dynamic, hurts more around goal but can go missing in games.
*Cody Walker plays more the FOS style so Carlton may have the longer term lens on by adding Jagga followed by Cody in a couple of years.

God I can’t wait to watch Cody in navy blue!!

 

[bmaurizio]

On the premise that Lalor and FOS are off the board, we'll chose between Smith or Draper, both excellent prospects.
I like Smith he embodies finesse and evasiveness in the circle, with good footy IQ and nice leg too.
A mature and well ground youngster with all the hallmarks of a future captain.

 

[Bale Dup]

Jagga for me too. Has been all along.
A clever little Neale, Daicos, Butters, Serong clone of our own, buzzing around the packs, knowing where to be, knowing how to be evasive, knowing the right decision at the time and delivering with speed and precision. Sounds about right.
Yep. That'll do nicely I reckon.
Come on Nick. You know you want to

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[lopezz]

I've actually cooled on Elijah a little bit. He tailed off later in the year IMO. His lack of pace and urgency at times took me from excited to cautious. Has the skill and poise, but I'm not counting on him to be an A grader just yet.

Yeah i can see how you have come to that conclusion. I think though that this was his first real year of consistant senior football that lifted him to 36 games, Ollie has 42.

I'm happy to give him a full preseason and a few more games playing in a side that is not decimated by injuries before cooling. I think he has a bit of class about him.

 

[KJP7]

He's exciting but the fact FOS isn't a high accumulator concerns me slightly, I know they're different types but it reminds me a little of Dow and his inability to rack up possession in general play.

Would be happy with any one of Draper, Jagga or Langford in that order.

 

[KnobHead]

Whoever we get at pick 3 I’m sure it’ll be the steal of the draft


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[marcmurphy3]

I'm team FOS but heard the other day that Carlton might actually prefer Jagga because of a few reasons including what a young Cody Walker offers which may influence our decision...

*Jagga is considered more of a 'leader' than FOS and the real professional, most eager to improve out of the two.
*FOS more dynamic, hurts more around goal but can go missing in games.
*Cody Walker plays more the FOS style so Carlton may have the longer term lens on by adding Jagga followed by Cody in a couple of years.

You build you side around Jagga types. They allow the FOS types to do their thing.

In terms of our current gen, we can probably afford to have a less consistent, more brilliant FOS. You could argue he adds more, whilst playing alongside guys like Cripps.

But in terms of our next gen (which needs to be the priority), we probably need the Jagga type. A great center piece for the next 15 years that we can then add others around.

 

[FitzroyBlueBagger]

Nothing has changed in 100 years

Mindset is the trait that's hard to quantify when looking at the top 5-6 mids

Who wants it more?
Who is willing to want to impact when the chips are down?
Who's the most focused for the entire game; always looking around, creating option, covering unmarked player etc
Who can see that a shepherd at the relevant moment is more important than asking for the ball?
Who knows that they "don't know what they don't know" and put their U18 ego in the bottom draw at home, ready to become vulnerable and a "new" student of the game again?
Who is a disciple of the 1% and team first ethos even i they themselves are having a quiet day?
Who is the most willing to unconditionally be as physically prepared as they can be , at all times

This will separate them over the next 5 years (and yes, injuries may play a part)

Great post, bang on…

 

[RPCB]

I don’t know what is a greater concern for our supporters. Drafting FOS with Pick 3 or having a seizure after only 2 minutes on Talking Carlton.

 

[The Return of the Paf]

If we can get Smith and a tall with a bit of 'upside' with pick 38, I'll be happy. I'd steer clear of a workmanlike/lumbering key backman with the latter pick.

 

[GoBlues!]

I still wouldn't rule out Draper

I like what Smith can bring to our team.

But if we selected Draper, the thought of a Chad Warner explosive type in our midfield/forward line would be equally exciting and something to look forward to.

 

[PenskeFile]

I think this is really underrating their impact, and probably focussing too much on the games they were underdone.

I can’t believe how much writing off of Walsh has been going on lately. I know he had a tough year, but he was fantastic for us in the finals of 2023. Hopefully he can get the body back to where it was.

 

[CoachB]

Clubs now use psychologists in interviews, but its never foolproof

God give me strength! Whatever happened to picking the kid that see's ball, gets ball?

 

[Soapy V]

Yeh I want Smith now........................

 

[marcmurphy3]

Yeh I want Smith now........................

What changed your mind Soapy?

 

[Juice030103]

What changed your mind Soapy?

He decided he wanted some of his moves


I’ll show myself the door

 

[Soapy V]

What changed your mind Soapy?

Whatever highlights video I watched last

No joke. I would be happy with any of them. Best top 6-7 I have seen IMO

 

[The Return of the Paf]

Whoever we get at pick 3 I’m sure it’ll be the steal of the draft


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Another Sidebum? It could work, I s'pose.

 

[Schoonerman]

On a side note

Cody will be in Nov 25 draft to play season 26 or another year after that ?